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Monetary Policy

Economic Trends

• The Evolution of the FOMC’s Economic Projections in 2012
• Balance Sheet Implications of New Fed Policies
• Policy Rule Changes
• The Evolving State of the Fed’s Security Holdings
• A Quick Look at Fed Forecasting
• Monetary Policy and the FOMC’s Economic Projections
• Slow Employment Recoveries, Monetary Policy, and Expected Inflation
• European Liquidity Strains
• Play by the (Taylor) Rules
• More Transparency, But Not a Crystal Ball
• Central Bank Liquidity Swaps
• Policy Innovations at the Zero Lower Bound
• The Shout with Operation Twist
• Interest Rates Have Responded to the Fed’s New Language
• The Impact of GDP Revisions on Taylor Rule Estimations
• Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth
• A Subtle Shift in FOMC Policy
• Short-Term Interest Rate Markets
• Policymaking for the Future
• Potential Risks Associated with an Itchy Trigger Finger
• How Should We Measure Success?
• Economic Projections from the January FOMC Meeting
• The Execution of the AIG Exit Plan
• Ten-Year Treasury Rates
• Economic Projections from the November FOMC Meeting
• A Positive Trend for the Fed’s Exposure to AIG
• FOMC Keeps It Steady Ahead
• Eurodollar Futures, Taylor Rules, and the Conduct of Future Monetary Policy
• Measuring Market Beliefs about the Fed Policy Rates
• Economic Projections from the June FOMC Meeting
• The Yield Curve, June 2010
• Market Expectations for Policy Rates
• Monetary Policy and an Extended Period of Time
• Recent Firming in the Federal Funds Market
• Market Expectations for Monetary Policy in the U.S. and Europe
• The Beginnings of Normalcy
• A Sign of Normalization
• Treasury Deposits and Excess Bank Reserves
• Inflation and Inflation Expectations
• The Supplemental Financing Program
• The Policy Statement: A Slowdown of Asset Purchases
• The Changing Composition of the Fed?s Balance Sheet
• Implementing Long-Term Security Purchases
• Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy
• New Policy Moves and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility
• The Impact of Credit Easing So Far
• Credit Easing: A Policy for a Time of Financial Crisis
• A Focus on Quantitative Easing
• Staying the Course
• Another Steady Rate Decision
• Steady on Policy Rate, but Alert to Inflationary Pressures
• Supplying Liquidity: The Tried and True and the New
• Down Another Seventy-Five
• Another Move, but with Less Surprise
• Providing Liquidity
• The Funds Rate, Liquidity, and the Term Auction Facility
• Inflation Expectations
• The Well-Anticipated Rate Cut
• Reserve Market Rates and Discount Window Lending
• The Long-Anticipated Rate Cut
• A Step Towards Neutral
• When Did Inflation Persistence Change?
• Assessing New Information: What?s Permanent, What?s Not?
• Monetary Policy: What’s in a Few Words?
• Monetary Policy: Holding Steady
• Monetary Policy: No Surprise Here
• Monetary Policy in the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan
• Monetary Policy: A Statement of Confidence?
• Is Inflation Changing Its Ways?
• The January 31 FOMC Meeting
• Monetary Policy Stays Put
• Monetary Aggregates
• Market Expectations of Policy Rates
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
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• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Taylor Rules and Communication  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
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• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Business Cycles and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Money and Financial Markets  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
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• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
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• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• The Taylor Rule  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Money and Financial Markets  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Money and Financial Markets  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary and Financial Markets  (PDF)
• Energy, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Money and Financial Markets  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
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• Money and Financial Markets  (PDF)
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• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy in a Box  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Expectations, Markets and the "Political Economy"  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
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• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Interpreting the Money Numbers  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy, 1923  (PDF)
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• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy: A Long-Term Perspective  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy and Economic Growth  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• An Alternative Measure of Money  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy  (PDF)
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Economic Commentary

• Gaps versus Growth Rates in the Taylor Rule  (PDF)
• Policy Rules in Macroeconomic Forecasting Models  (PDF)
• Where Would the Federal Funds Rate Be, If It Could Be Negative?  (PDF)
• W(h)ither the Fed’s Balance Sheet?  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy in a World with Interest on Reserves  (PDF)
• The Foreign Savings Glut: Inordinate Savers or Thriving Traders?  (PDF)
• Conducting Monetary Policy when Interest Rates Are Near Zero  (PDF)
• Stamp Scrip: Money People Paid to Use  (PDF)
• The Great Moderation: Good Luck, Good Policy, or Less Oil Dependence?  (PDF)
• Explaining Apparent Changes in the Phillips Curve: The Great Moderation and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Explaining Apparent Changes in the Phillips Curve: Trend Inflation Isn’t Constant  (PDF)
• A Brief History of Central Banks  (PDF)
• Price Stability: Issues and Challenges  (PDF)
• Global Risks to U.S. Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Private Money in our Past, Present, and Future  (PDF)
• Milton Friedman, Teacher, 1912-2006  (PDF)
• The Anatomy of an Oil Price Shock  (PDF)
• Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Central Bank Independence: The Key to Price Stability?  (PDF)
• Central Bank Credibility  (PDF)
• Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• FOMC Communications and the Predictability of Near-Term Policy Decisions  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy in an Interdependent World  (PDF)
• Economic Forecasts and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Have International Developments Lowered the Neutral Rate?  (PDF)
• Considerable Period of Time: The Case for Signaling Future Policy  (PDF)
• The Tale of Gresham’s Law  (PDF)
• Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy  (PDF)
• The Power of Price Stability  (PDF)
• Expectations, Communications, and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• A Perspective on Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Expected Inflation and TIPS  (PDF)
• The Fate of One-Dollar Coins in the U.S.  (PDF)
• When Is a Rate Hike Not Tighter Policy?  (PDF)
• A Perspective on Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• A National Voice, a Regional View  (PDF)
• Island Money  (PDF)
• The Trime  (PDF)
• The Nature of Economic Change  (PDF)
• What Is the Right Inflation Rate?  (PDF)
• An Option for Anticipating Fed Action  (PDF)
• The Taylor Rule: A Guidepost for Monetary Policy?  (PDF)
• The New Discount Window  (PDF)
• Information and Prices  (PDF)
• Open and Operating: Providing Liquidity to Avoid a Crisis  (PDF)
• Not as Easy as It Looks: Regulating Effective Corporate Governance  (PDF)
• Three Myths about Central Banks  (PDF)
• Dollarization: What’s in It for US?  (PDF)
• Why Is Stable Money Such a Big Deal?  (PDF)
• Electronic Money and the Future of Central Banks  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy Rules and Stability: Inflation Targeting versus Price-Level Targeting  (PDF)
• How Well Does the Federal Funds Futures Rate Predict the Future Federal Funds Rate?  (PDF)
• Money, Manufacturing, and the Strong Dollar  (PDF)
• On the Cost of Inflation  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy with Humility  (PDF)
• Perils of Price Deflations: An Analysis of the Great Depression  (PDF)
• Riding the S-Curve: Thriving in a Technological Revolution  (PDF)
• How to Keep Growing "New Economies"  (PDF)
• Price Stability: Is a Tough Central Bank Enough?  (PDF)
• Who Is that Guy on the $10 Bill?  (PDF)
• The Century of Markets  (PDF)
• Waiting for Policy Rules  (PDF)
• The Evolving Global Monetary Order  (PDF)
• Forecasts and Sunspots: Looking Back for a Better Future  (PDF)
• The Recent Ascent in Stock Prices: How Exuberant Are You?  (PDF)
• Money Growth and Inflation: How Long is the Long Run?  (PDF)
• Money Growth and Inflation: Does Fiscal Policy Matter?  (PDF)
• The Challenge of Stability: Mexico’s Pursuit of Sound Money  (PDF)
• In search of the NAIRU  (PDF)
• Accelerating Money Growth: Is M2 Telling Us Something?  (PDF)
• Money, Fiscal Discipline, and Growth  (PDF)
• Wealth, Economic Infrastructure, and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Monetary policy in the cold war era
• Okun’s law revisited: should we worry about low unemployment?
• Is noninflationary growth an oxymoron?
• Maintaining a Low Inflation Environment
• Inflation targets: the next step for monetary policy
• Where is all the U.S. currency hiding?
• M2 growth in 1995: a return to normalcy?  (PDF)
• A Monetary Policy Paradox  (PDF)
• Monetary policy and the federal funds futures market  (PDF)
• A Mexican currency board?  (PDF)
• Monetary policy: an interpretation of 1994, a challenge for 1995  (PDF)
• Must the Fed Fight Growth?  (PDF)
• Central Bank Independence  (PDF)
• Monetary policy and inflation: 1993 in perspective  (PDF)
• Replacing reserve requirements  (PDF)
• Credibility Begins with a Clear Commitment to Price Stability  (PDF)
• Free Markets and Price Stability: Opportunities for Mexico  (PDF)
• Skepticism about the direction of inflation: causes, costs and cures  (PDF)
• The importance of structure in decision-making  (PDF)
• The M2 slowdown and depository intermediation: implications for monetary policy  (PDF)
• The business cycle, investment and a wayward M2: a midyear review  (PDF)
• Auctioning treasury securities  (PDF)
• What monetary policy can and cannot do  (PDF)
• A price objective for monetary policy  (PDF)
• The case for disinflation  (PDF)
• Uncertain inflation and price-level rules  (PDF)
• Some observations on central bank accountability  (PDF)
• Federal funds rate volatility  (PDF)
• Do Excess Reserves Reveal Credit Crunches  (PDF)
• Price stability and world economic recovery  (PDF)
• Understanding the recent behavior of M2  (PDF)
• Price stability and regional diversity  (PDF)
• Defending zero inflation: all for naught  (PDF)
• A Critique of Monetary Protectionism  (PDF)
• A monetary policy for the 1990s  (PDF)
• The case for price stability  (PDF)
• Is current fiscal policy an obstacle to sound monetary policy?  (PDF)
• Does the Fed Cause Christmas?  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy and the M2 Target  (PDF)
• The Indicator P-Star: Just What Does it Indicate?  (PDF)
• Setting the Discount Rate  (PDF)
• Communication and the Humphrey-Hawkins Process  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy, Information, and Price Stability  (PDF)
• Money and Velocity in the 1980s  (PDF)
• Humphrey-Hawkins: the July monetary policy report  (PDF)
• International Developments and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• M1A - M.I.A.?  (PDF)
• Monetarism and the M1 Target  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy Debates Reflect Theoretical Issues  (PDF)
• The Government Securities Market and Proposed Regulation  (PDF)
• How Desirable is Dollar Depreciation?  (PDF)
• Reserve Borrowings and the Money Market  (PDF)
• The M1 target and Disinflation Policy  (PDF)
• CRR and Monetary Control  (PDF)
• The 1985 Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony  (PDF)
• A Problem of Seasonal Adjustment  (PDF)
• The Monetary Targets in 1984  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy in the 1980s  (PDF)
• Velocity and Monetary Targets  (PDF)
• The Problem of Seasonally Adjusted Money  (PDF)
• Why Do Deficits Matter?  (PDF)
• Interpreting the Ms after the NOWs  (PDF)
• Does the Federal Government Spend Too Much?  (PDF)
• The New Aggregates, Economic Activity, and Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Fiscal 1981 Budget Recommendations  (PDF)

Policy Discussion Papers

• The 2007 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking and Payments: An Overview  (PDF)
• Inertial Taylor Rules: The Benefit of Signaling Future Policy  (PDF)
• Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy  (PDF)
• Recent Developments in Monetary Economics: A Summary of the 2004 Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments  (PDF)

Working Papers

• Privately Optimal Contracts and Suboptimal Outcomes in a Model of Agency Costs  (PDF)
• How Inflationary Is an Extended Period of Low Interest Rates?  (PDF)
• A Medium Scale Forecasting Model for Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Liquidity and the Threat of Fraudulent Assets  (PDF)
• Indexed Debt Contracts and the Financial Accelerator  (PDF)
• Liquidity in Frictional Asset Markets  (PDF)
• On the Coexistence of Money and Higher-Return Assets and its Social Role  (PDF)
• The Cost of Inflation: A Mechanism Design Approach  (PDF)
• U.S. Intervention and the Early Dollar Float: 1973?1981  (PDF)
• Liquidity Creation without a Lender of Last Resort: Clearing House Loan Certificates in the Banking Panic of 1907  (PDF)
• Banking and Financial Crises in United States History: What Guidance Can History Offer Policymakers?  (PDF)
• Money and Competing Assets under Private Information  (PDF)
• Oil and the Great Moderation  (PDF)
• Counterfeiting as Private Money in Mechanism Design  (PDF)
• Inflation-Output Gap Trade-off with a Dominant Oil Supplier  (PDF)
• Central Bank Independence and Inflation: A Note  (PDF)
• Option Prices, Exchange Market Intervention, and the Higher Moment Expectations Channel: A User’s Guide  (PDF)
• Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Money and Capital as Competing Media of Exchange  (PDF)
• On the Recognizability of Money  (PDF)
• Some Benefits of Cyclical Monetary Policy  (PDF)
• Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and Counterfactual Experiments  (PDF)
• Recovering Market Expectations of FOMC Rate Changes with Options on Federal Funds Futures  (PDF)
• Bargaining and the Value of Money  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off  (PDF)
• Thinking about Monetary Policy without Money: A Review of Three Books: Inflation Targeting, Monetary Theory and Policy, and Interest and Prices  (PDF)
• Friedman Meets Hosios: Efficiency in Search Models of Money  (PDF)
• Money in Search Equilibrium, in Competitive Equilibrium, and in Competitive Search Equilibrium  (PDF)
• A Model of (the Threat of) Counterfeiting  (PDF)
• Comments on Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability  (PDF)
• Currency Competition in a Fundamental Model of Money  (PDF)
• Does It Matter (for Equilibrium Determinacy) What Price Index the Central Bank Targets?  (PDF)
• Learning and the central bank  (PDF)
• Monetary policy in a world without perfect capital markets  (PDF)
• Sterilized intervention, nonsterilized intervention, and monetary policy  (PDF)
• Coalitions, Power, and the FOMC  (PDF)
• Monetary shocks, agency costs, and business cycles  (PDF)
• Money growth rules and price level determinacy  (PDF)
• Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules  (PDF)
• Generalized Search-Theoretic Models of Monetary Exchange  (PDF)
• Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates  (PDF)
• Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models  (PDF)
• Monetary policy regimes and beliefs  (PDF)
• Private Money Creation and the Suffolk Banking System  (PDF)
• Price-level and interest-rate targeting in a model with sticky prices  (PDF)
• Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle  (PDF)
• Dynamic Commitment and Imperfect Policy Rules  (PDF)
• Defining the Monetary Base in a Deregulated Financial System  (PDF)
• Optimal Fiscal Policy, Public Capital, and the Productivity Slowdown  (PDF)
• Optimal Fiscal Policy when Public Capital is Productive: A Business Cycle Perspective  (PDF)
• Interest rate rules vs. money growth rules: a welfare comparison in a cash-in-advance economy  (PDF)
• Optimal Fiscal Policy when Public Capital is Productive: a Business-Cycle Perspective  (PDF)
• The Federal Reserve Board before Marriner Eccles (1931-1934)  (PDF)
• The Gold Standard As A Rule  (PDF)
• A Different Kind of Money Illusion: The Case of Long and Variable Lags  (PDF)
• Zero inflation: transition costs and shoe-leather benefits  (PDF)
• In Defense of Zero Inflation  (PDF)
• Failed Delivery and Daily Treasury Bill Returns  (PDF)
• The Effects of Disinflationary Policies on Monetary Velocity  (PDF)
• Money, Inflation, and Sectoral Shifts  (PDF)
• Interest Rate Rules are Infeasible and Fail to Complete Macroeconomic Models  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations with Multiperiod Wage Stickiness and an Economywide Credit Market  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy in an Economy with Nominal Wage Contracts  (PDF)
• Designing Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations: Analysis and Practical Implications  (PDF)
• Federal Reserve Credibility and the Market’s Response to the Weekly M1 Announcements  (PDF)
• Monetary Monetary Policy Regimes: A Synthesis of the Monetary Control and Rational Expectations Literatures  (PDF)
• Monetary Policy and Real Interest Rates: New Evidence from the Money Stock Announcements  (PDF)

Other Publications

• Michael Bordo (Rutgers University)  (PDF)
• Marina Azzimonti (Philadelphia Fed)  (PDF)
• Enrique Martinez-Garcia (Dallas Fed)  (PDF)
• Conference on Household Heterogeneity and Household Finance
• Audio Presentation: The Fed’s Exit Strategy Explained
• The Fed’s Exit Strategy Explained  (PDF)
• Models and Policies for Economies with Credit and Financial Instability
• Federal Funds Rate Projections
• Understand and Follow the Fed?s New Credit-Easing Tools with our Balance-Sheet Charts
• Oil and the Great Moderation  (PDF)
• Oil and the Great Moderation  (PDF)
• FOMC Statement
• Globalization and Monetary Policy
• FOMC Statement
• 2007 Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance Conference
• Monetary Strategy: Old Issues and New Challenges
• Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy
• Economic Forecasts and Monetary Policy
• System Committee on Business and Financial Conditions
• The Power of Price Stability
• Expectations, Communications, and Monetary Policy
• A Perspective on Monetary Policy
• Dynamic Models and Monetary Policymaking
• Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments: Proceedings  (PDF)
• A perspective on Monetary Policy II
• Low-Inflation Economies
• Dynamic Models for Policy Analysis
• Bruce D. Smith Memorial Conference
• Money and Fiscal Policy
• The Implications of Declining Treasury Debt
• Conference on Monetary Economics
• Conference on Money and Payments
• The Origins and Evolution of Central Banking
• What Should Central Banks Do?

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