Research Events
- Conferences
- Seminars
- Workshops
Past Conferences
- April 12-13, 2012
- Conference on Capital Requirements for Financial Firms
This conference will cover issues related to capital requirements for financial firms. Academics, policymakers, and market participants will be present to discuss regulatory reform and the future of the financial system. A mix of theoretical and empirical papers will be presented. The agenda will be posted shortly, but likely topics include a range from Basel III capital and liquidity requirements to the social and private costs of equity capital.
- June 9-10, 2011
- 2011 Policy Summit: A Conference on Housing, Human Capital, and Inequality
- The annual Policy Summit of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland draws an audience of several hundred researchers, practitioners, policymakers, funders, elected and legislative officials, and bankers from across the Great Lakes region. This year's conference will focus on housing, inequality, neighborhoods, and labor market issues, with special attention given to the impact of the foreclosure crisis.
- May 06, 2011
- The Manufacturing Economy: Proximity and Performance
The conference will explore issues central to U.S. manufacturing, its role in the economy, and its changing nature and organization. Speakers will address the importance of proximity on performance in manufacturing, the globalization of the manufacturing process, multinational corporations and trade, local supply chains and firm performance, U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, and productivity dynamics. Experts from industry, academia, and government will participate.
- April 14-15, 2011
- Resolving Insolvent Complex Financial Institutions
- This conference will address issues related to the resolution of large and complex financial institutions and include academics, policymakers, and market participants. It will take place in Cleveland, Ohio, on April 14-15, 2011.
- October 14-15, 2010
- Conference on Countercyclical Capital Requirements
- September 9-10, 2010
- Conference on Household Heterogeneity and Household Finance
- Hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Deutsche Bundesbank, this conference will provide a forum of discussion on the design and use of individual household financial data in economic modeling.
- September 01, 2010
- Conference for Data Users of the 2007 Economic Census
This conference is for users of data from the 2007 Economic Census. The material covered will be useful for both new and experienced users of census data.
- November 06, 2009
- Quantifying Systemic Risk
- The goal of this conference was to bring together academics, policymakers, and market participants to make a constructive contribution to the ongoing national debate on the future of the financial system.
- October 15, 2009
- Models and Policies for Economies with Credit and Financial Instability
- Our conference program this year focuses on the challenge of extending the models we use to provide policy advice so that they incorporate a richer structure for credit and account for financial instability.
- October 08, 2009
- Conference on Automotive Communities and Workforce Adjustment
- This conference was designed to assist federal, state, and local policymakers by bringing forward an independent, research-based perspective and program and policy ideas for adapting the economies of auto-impacted communities. The a focus at this first forum was on workers.
- September 11, 2009
- Consumer Protection in Financial Product Markets
- This conference will provide a forum for discussing the regulation of consumer financial products and proposals for reform. Legal experts, academics, and government officials will present research, practitioner experiences, and the current state of the law. Interactive panel discussions will provide a forum for identifying useful practices, potential inefficiencies, and innovative ideas to shape the rapidly evolving realm of consumer financial protection policy.
- November 14-15, 2008
- JMCB Conference: Liquidity in Frictional Markets
- April 17, 2008
- Identifying and Resolving Financial Crises
- This conference provided substantial opportunities for debate and exchange on the subjects of financial crises and crisis intervention.
- April 3-4, 2008
- The Economics of Geography: Cities, Growth, and Economic Development
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland hosted a conference on April 3-4, 2008, dedicated to issues of critical importance to our local economies—the role of business-tax incentives; education, city growth, and the adoption of advanced technology; housing in urban markets; the impact of large, mixed-use projects; and more.
- October 26, 2007
- Payday and Predatory Lending Seminar
- This research seminar featured two papers on payday lending and two papers on predatory lending. Presenters included Paige Skiba (Vanderbilt), Adair Morse (University of Chicago), Philip Bond (Wharton), and Anthony Pennington-Cross (Marquette).
- October 12-13, 2007
- Methods and Applications for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
- August 6-17, 2007
- 2007 Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance Conference
- June 6-7, 2007
- Monetary Strategy: Old Issues and New Challenges
- May 24?25, 2007
- Conference on Price Measurement for Monetary Policy
- Cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Cleveland
- May 18-19, 2007
- Macroeconomics across Time and Space
- November 16-17, 2006
- Universities, Innovation, and Economic Growth
- November 8-9, 2006
- System Committee on Business and Financial Conditions
- September 29, 2006
- Banking and Commerce: The Next Steps
- September 8-9, 2006
- Dynamic Models Useful for Policy Making
- Cosponsored by the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank
- August 11, 2006
- Conference in Honor of Randall Wright
- April 27-29, 2007
- Midwest Macro Meetings 2007
- November 28-29, 2006
- System Committee on Business and Financial Conditions
- November 17-18, 2005
- Conference on Innovation in Education
- November 18-19, 2004
- Conference on Education and Economic Development
- October 14-16, 2004
- International Macroeconomics Conference
- September 23-24, 2004
- Dynamic Models and Monetary Policymaking
- September 10-11, 2004
- Empirical Methods and Application for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
- November 19-23, 2003
- Low-Inflation Economies
- September 25-27, 2003
- Trade, Capital Flows, and Aggregate Dynamics
- August 25, 2003
- Term Structure and Economic Activity
- July 10-11, 2003
- Dynamic Models for Policy Analysis
- May 21-23, 2003
- Banking Consolidation and Competition
- April 12-13, 2003
- Bruce D. Smith Memorial Conference
- July 15-17, 2002
- Money and Fiscal Policy
- February 1, 2002
- On the Law and Economics of Payments Systems
- October 24-26, 2001
- The Implications of Declining Treasury Debt
- August 13-17, 2001
- Conference on Monetary Economics
- August 6-9, 2001
- Conference on Money and Payments
- May 20-22, 2001
- The Origins and Evolution of Central Banking
- February 2-3, 2001
- Learning and Model Misspecification
- December 5, 2000
- Financial Fragility
- September 8, 2000
- Controlling GSE Subsidies
- June 1-3, 2000
- Global Monetary Integration
- May 19, 2000
- Regulation in Housing Finance
- April 7-8, 2000
- Central Banking and Payments
- September 24-25, 1999
- Rogerson-Wright NBER Small Group Conference
- October 28-29, 1999
- What Should Central Banks Do?
Past Seminars
- 10.01.2012 | 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Camelia Minoiu (International Monetary Fund)
- Liquidity Shocks, Bank Balance Sheets, and International Lending during the 2007-08 Crisis
- 9.25.2012 | 11 am - 12:30 pm
- Alvin Murphy (Washington University in St. Louis)
- Major Choice
- 9.20.12 | 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Kevin Stange (University of Michigan)
- The Effect of Differential Pricing on College
- 9.17.12 | 10:30 am - 12:00 pm
- Ed Knotek (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
- Drifting Inflation Targets and Stagflation
- 9.17.12 | 2:30 - 4:00 pm
- Jenny Schuetz (University of Southern California Price School of Public Policy)
- Do Art Galleries Transform Neighborhoods?
- 9.12.12 | 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Francesco Furlanetto (Norges Bank)
- Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment during the Great Recession
- 6.25.2012 11:00 - 12:30
- Damon Jones (University of Chicago - Harris School)
- The Dynamics of Labor Supply Adjustment to Policy: Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test
- 6.22.2012 12:00 - 1:00 pm
- Tina Plerhoples (Michigam State University)
- The Effect of Vacant Building Demolitions on Crime under Depopulation
- 5.16.2012 | 11:00 - 12:30 pm
- WIlliam Rogers (University of Missouri at Saint Louis)
- Separating Short Sales from the Foreclosure Discount using MLS Data
- 5.11.12 | 10-10:45
- Amir Sufi (Chicago Booth)
- What Explains High Unemployment? The Aggregate Demand Channel
- 5.11.12 | 9:15-10
- Chris Mayer (Columbia Business School)
- Traders, Distant Speculators, and Asset Bubbles in the Housing Market
- 5.03.12 | 11-12:30
- Raj Aggarwal (University of Akron)
- Financial Architecture and Political Economy
- 4.19.12 | 2:00-3:30
- Stanley Longhofer (Wichita State University)
- The Housing Wealth Effect: The Crucial Roles of Demographics, Wealth Distribution and Wealth Shares
- 4.16.12 | 11-12:30
- Sandra Eickmeier (Deutsche Bundesbank)
- How Do Credit Supply Shocks Propagate Internationally? A GVAR Approach
- 4.11.12 | 11-12:30
- Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)
- DSGE Model-Based Forecasting
- 4.05.12 | 12 - 1
- Yuliya Demyanyk (Cleveland Fed)
- Understanding Mortgage Companies
- 4.9.12 | 2-3:30
- Luminita Stevens (Columbia University)
- Pricing Regimes in Disaggregated Data
- 4.06.12 | 11 - 12:30
- Enrique Mendoza (University of Maryland)
- Overborrowing, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Regulation
- 4.03.12 | 11 - 12:30
- Fabian Lange (Yale University)
- Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment
- 3.27.2012 | 11-12:30
- Knut Aastveit (Norges Bank)
- The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence
- 3.27.2012 | 11-12:30
- Knut Aastveit (Norges Bank)
- The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence
- March 22, 2012
- Bhanu Balasubramnian (University of Akron)
- Has market discipline on banks improved after the Dodd-Frank Act?
- 3.23.2012 11-12:30
- Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)
- Yield Spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real-Time VAR Analysis
- March 21, 2012
- Bob Aliber (University of Chicago)
- The Source of Financial Turbulence 1970-2012
- 3.6.2012 12:00 - 1:00 pm
- Ellis Tallman (Oberlin College and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland''s BVAR Model
- 2.29.2012 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Kristle Cortes (Boston College)
- Did Local Lenders Forecast the Bust? Evidence from the Real Estate Market
- 2.28.2012 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Andrea Ferrero (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
- House Price Booms, Current Account Deficits, and Low Interest Rates
- 2.27/2012 1:30 - 3:00 pm
- Illenin Kondo (University of Minnesota)
- Trade Reforms, Foreign Competition, and Labor Market Adjustments in the U.S.
- 2.24.2012 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Giorgio Primiceri (Northwestern University)
- Is There a Trade-Off Between Inflation and Output Stabilization?
- 02.08.2012 11:15 am - 12:45 pm
- Itzhak Ben-David (Ohio State University)
- Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from Home Affordability Modification Program
- 2.2.2012 | 11 am - 12:30 pm
- Dong Choi (Princeton University)
- Heterogeneity and Stability: Bolster the Strong not the Weak
- 2.1.2012 | 1:30 - 3 pm
- Yuko Imura (Ohio State University)
- Endogenous Trade Participation with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through
- 1.31.2012 | 11 am - 12:30 pm
- Kartik Anand (Berlin Technical University)
- Rollover Risk, Network Structure and Systemic Financial Crises
- January 27, 2012 | 10:30 pm - 12:00 pm
- Giuseppe Fiori (Universidade de São Paulo)
- The Macroeconomic Effects of Goods and Labor Markets Deregulation
- January 18, 2012 | 1:30 pm
- Taisuke Nakata (New York University)
- Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Occasionally Binding Zero Bound Constraints
- January 17, 2012 | 11 am - 12 pm
- Felix Suntheim (Bocconi University)
- Managerial Compensation in the Financial Service Industry
- January 12, 2012 | 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Salem Abo-Zaid (Ben-Gurion University)
- Optimal Long-Run Inflation with Occasionally-Binding Financial Constraints
- 12.15.11 | 11 am - 12:30 pm
- Peter Zadrozny (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Weighted-Covariance Decomposition of VARMA Models, Applied to Monthly-Quarterly Macroeconomic Data
- 12.14.11 | 10-11 am
- Adrian Alter (University of Konstanz)
- Credit Spread Interdependencies of European States and Banks during the Financial Crisis
- 12.07.11 | 12 - 1 pm
- Chris Telmer (Carnegie Mellon University)
- How the Taylor Rule Affects the Foreign Currency Carry Trade (or John Taylor Meets a Japanese Housewife)
- 11.17.2011 | 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Francesco Bianchi (Duke University)
- Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents'' Beliefs
- 11.16.2011 | 12:00 - 1:00
- Peter Rupert (University of California, Santa Barbara)
- Housing Dynamics
- 11.16.2011 | 2:00 - 3:30
- Ayse Imrohoroglu (University of Southern California)
- Debt and the U.S. Economy
- 11.15.2011 | 11:00 am - 12:30 pm | 943
- Bob Tetlow (Federal Reserve Board)
- Financial Stress and Economic Dynamics: The Transmission of Crises
- The recent financial crisis and the associated decline in economic activity have raised some important questions about the links between economic activity and the financial sector. This paper introduces an index of financial stress--an index that was used in real time by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board to monitor the crisis--and shows how stress interacts with real activity, inflation and monetary policy. We examine the implications of financial stress for the real economy, the implications of shocks to the real economy for financial stress, the role of monetary policy and what constitutes a useful and credible measure of stress in this context. We address these questions using a richly parameterized multivariate Markov-switching VAR model estimated using Bayesian methods. We clearly reject the constant parameter model; a corollary is that inference about policy during periods of high financial stress base on a single-regime model is suspect. We find that the negative output effects of a financial stress shock are much more pronounced and long-lasting in times of high financial stress than in normal times. We also find that monetary policy has reacted differently in times of financial stress than otherwise.
- 11.8.2011 | 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Tim Kehoe (University of Minnesota)
- Gambling for Redemption and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises
- 10.21.2011 | 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Julia Thomas (Ohio State University)
- Interest Rates with Endogenous Market Segmentation
- 10.13.2011 | 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria (Ohio State University)
- Macroeconomic Volatility: The Role of the Informal Economy
- September 21, 2011 | 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM
- Valeriya Dinger (University of Bonn)
- The Timing of Retail Interest Rate Changes
- September 01, 2011
- Guillaume Rocheteau (University of California, Irvine)
- On the Coexistence of Money and Higher-Return Assets and its Social Role
- 08.30.2011 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Eric Young (University of Virginia)
- Robust Control, Informational Frictions, and International Consumption Correlations
- August 26, 2011 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Price Fishback (University of Arizona)
- In Search of the Multiplier for Federal Spending in the States during the Great Depression
- 8.23.2011 11:00 am - 12:30 pm
- Amanda Heitz (University of Minnesota)
- The Social Costs and Benefits of Too-Big-to-Fail Banks: A Bounding Exercise
- August 11, 2011 | 12:00 - 1:00 p.m.
- Grace (Weishi) Gu (Cornell U. and Cleveland Fed)
- Jobless Recoveries: Employment Adjustment Cost and Financial Shocks
- June 21, 2011
- Grace Gu (Cornell University)
- Jobless Recovery: Employment Effects of Technology and Financial Shocks
- June 08, 2011
- Michael Bordo (Rutgers University) (PDF)
- Exits from Recessions: The U.S. Experience 1920-2007
- June 08, 2011
- Sumit Agarwal (Chicago Fed) (PDF)
- Market-Based Loss Mitigation Practices for Troubled Mortgages Following the Financial Crisis
- 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM
- Marina Azzimonti (Philadelphia Fed) (PDF)
- Partisan cycles and the consumption volatility puzzle
- May 16, 2011
- Stephan Whitaker (Cleveland Fed)
- The External Costs of Foreclosed, Vacant, and Tax-Delinquent Property
- May 10, 2011
- Jinhui Bai (Georgetown University) (PDF)
- Government Purchases Over the Business Cycle: the Role of Economic and Political Inequality
- May 5, 2011
- Avi Ebenstein (Hebrew University)
- The Long-Run Impact of Air Pollution on Life Expectancy: Evidence from China’s Huai River Policy
- May 03, 2011
- Kamil Yilmaz (Koc University)
- On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms
- We propose several connectedness measures built from pieces of variance decompositions, and we argue that they provide natural and insightful measures of connectedness among financial asset returns and volatilities. We also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that our connectedness measures are intimately related to measures of network topology. Building on these insights, we track daily time-varying connectedness of major U.S. financial institutions’ stock return volatilities in recent years, including during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. We stress implications of connectedness measurement for risk management and portfolio allocation.
- April 26, 2011
- Stephanie Moulton (Ohio State University)
- Beyond the Transaction: Depository Institutions and Reduced Mortgage Default for Low Income Homebuyers
- March 22, 2011
- Threatening to Offshore in a Search (PDF)
- David Arsenau (Federal Reserve Board)
- March 16, 2011
- Ferre De Graeve (Sveriges Riksbank)
- Despite methodological critiques, macroeconomic research often relies on vector autoregressions (VARs) identified with long-run restrictions to uncover empirical regularities. In large part, the critiques argue the method goes awry due to lag truncation. Reduced form models with short lag lengths provide poor approximations to DSGE models. Yet short lag lengths are deemed a necessity as increased parametrization would lead to prohibitively large uncertainty. We show that the trivial solution to the critique, i.e. dramatically increasing lag length, actually works. Truncation is a form of misspecification. In the face of misspecification, increasing lag length may in fact reduce uncertainty. As a result, VARs with lag lengths of, say, ten years can lead to unbiased and precise inference when identified with long-run restrictions. We document this tradeoff between bias reduction, degrees of freedom reduction and its resulting increase in uncertainty, and misspecification. For standard DSGE models, such as Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan's (2008) RBC model, reducing truncation leads to unbiased and more precise inference. We then reassess existing VAR-evidence on the technology-hours debate, which suffers from truncation bias. Controlling for truncation, two striking conclusions emerge. First, the consensus view that technology shocks have a limited role for hours fluctuations is solely due to truncation. Controlling for truncation bias, we find that technology shocks do matter for hours fluctuations. Across US manufacturing sectors, the contribution of technology shocks to hours fluctuations varies from 0 to 100% at a one-year horizon. At longer horizons, around half the variation of sectoral hours is due to technology shocks. Second, our evidence suggests there is no cause for controversy regarding the hours response. Across sectors, there is ample heterogeneity with about as many sectors exhibiting positive responses as there are sectors that reduce hours following technological improvement. This suggests there is scope for both New-Keynesian and Real Business Cycle explanations of fluctuations.
- March 03, 2011
- Daniel Carroll (Cleveland Fed)
- Neigborhood Dynamics and Distribution of Opportunities
- February 22, 2011
- Enrique Martinez-Garcia (Dallas Fed) (PDF)
- U.S. Business Cycles, Monetary Policy, and the External Finance Premium
- December 08, 2010
- Yuliya Demyanyk (Cleveland Fed)
- Determinants and Consequences of Mortgage Default
- paper
- December 08, 2010
- Yuliya Demyanyk (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (PDF)
- Determinants and Consequences of Mortgage Default
- We study a unique data set of borrower-level credit information from TransUnion, one of the three major credit bureaus, which is linked to a database containing detailed information on the borrowers’ mortgages. We find that the updated credit score is an important predictor of mortgage default in addition to the credit score at origination. However, the 6-month change in the credit score also predicts default: A positive change in the credit score significantly reduces the probability of delinquency or foreclosure. Next, we analyze the consequences of default on a borrower’s credit score. The credit score drops on average 51 points when a borrower becomes 30-days delinquent on his mortgage, but the effect is much more muted for transitions to more severe delinquency states and even for foreclosure.
- November 30, 2010
- Tim Fuerst (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (PDF)
- Contract Indexation and Agency Costs
- This paper addresses the positive and normative implications of indexing risky debt to observable aggregate conditions. These issues are pursued within the context of the celebrated financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999). The principle conclusions are that the optimal degree of indexation is significant, and that the business cycle properties of the model are altered under this level of indexation.
- November 16, 2010
- Laurence Ales (Carnegie Mellon University)
- Non-exclusive Dynamic Contracts and the Limits of Insurance
- November 11, 2010 | 11:00 a.m. - 12:30 pm.
- Bill Dupor (Ohio State University)
- Grading the Stim (coauthored by Tim Conley, University of Western Ontario)
- October 19, 2010
- Jason Seligman (Ohio State University) (PDF)
- Responses to the Financial Crisis, Treasury Debt, and the Impact on Short-Term Money Markets
- October 08, 2010
- Munpyung O (University of Akron)
- The Effect of Prepayment Penalties on Subprime Borrowers'' Decisions to Default: A Perfect Storm
- September 20, 2010
- Mikhail Oet (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
- SAFE: An Early Warning System for Systemic Banking Risk
- September 01, 2010
- Aubhik Khan (Ohio State) (PDF)
- Credit Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity
- We study the cyclical implications of credit market imperfections in a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model wherein firms face persistent shocks to both aggregate and individual productivity. In our model economy, optimal capital reallocation is distorted by two frictions. First, collateralized borrowing constraints limit the investment undertaken by small firms with relatively high productivities. Second, specificity in firm-level capital implies partial investment irreversibilities that lead firms to pursue generalized (S,s) investment rules. This second friction compounds the first in implying that large and relatively unproductive firms carry a disproportionate share of the aggregate capital stock, thereby reducing endogenous aggregate total factor productivity. Moreover, because irreversibilities induce both downward and upward inertia in firm-level capital adjustment, they ensure that the negative consequences of a temporary tightening in financial markets are not quickly repaired. In the presence of persistent heterogeneity in both capital and total factor productivity, the effects of a financial shock can be amplified and propagated through large and long-lived disruptions to the distribution of capital that, in turn, imply large and persistent reductions in aggregate total factor productivity. Similarly, the consequences of a negative real shock can be exacerbated and prolonged in the presence of real and financial frictions. This paper seeks to measure the strength of these effects in a calibrated DSGE setting. We find that an unanticipated tightening in borrowing conditions can, on its own, generate a large recession that is far more persistent than the financial shock itself, and the recovery that follows is led by rises in business fixed investment, rather than in household consumption spending.
- August 20, 2010
- Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
- Real-time Density Forecasts from BVAR’s with Stochastic Volatility
- July 22, 2010
- Peter Rupert (University of California at Santa Barbara)
- Grandparenting
- July 20, 2010
- Guillaume Rocheteau
- Liquidity and Asset Price Dynamics (coauthored by Randall Wright)
- 05.20.10 | 10:30-12:00
- Roberto Chang, Rutgers University
- On the Sources of Aggregate Fluctuations in Emerging Economies
- 05.04.10 | 11-12:30
- Eugene White, Rutgers University (PDF)
- Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s
- April 28, 2010
- Bill Lester (Berkeley)
- The Impact of Living Wage Laws on Urban Economic Development Patterns and the Local Business Climate: Evidence from California Cities
- April 26, 2010
- Francisca Richter (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
- Lending Patterns in Poor Neighborhoods
- April 07, 2010
- Daniel Hartley (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
- The Effect of Foreclosures on Owner-Occupied Housing Prices: Supply or Dis-Amenity?
- March 19, 2010
- Stephan Whitaker (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
- Private-Activity Municipal Bonds: The Political Economy of Volume Cap Allocation
- March 11, 2010
- Andrea Pescatori (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (PDF)
- Debt Overhang and Credit Risk in a Business Cycle Model
- We study the macroeconomic implications of the debt overhang distortion. The probability that a firm will default acts like a tax that discourages its current investment. This is because the marginal return of the firm’s investment will be seized by its creditors in the event of default, so the higher the firm’s probability of default, the lower its expected marginal return of investment. The dynamics of this distortion, which moves counter-cyclically, amplify and propagate the effects of productivity, volatility, wealth redistribution and government spending shocks. Both the size and the persistence of these effects are quantitatively important, and the fiscal multiplier is large and hump-shaped. The model replicates important features of the joint dynamics of macro variables and credit risk variables, like default rates, recovery rates and credit spreads.
- February 16, 2010
- Sanjay Chugh (U. Maryland) (PDF)
- Firm Risk and Leverage-Based Business Cycles
- I exploit evidence on cyclical fluctuations in the cross-sectional dispersion of firm-level productivity to quantify how much volatility in borrowers’ leverage ratios can be explained by “second-moment shocks.“ In a standard financial accelerator model, second-moment shocks lead to fluctuations in leverage an order of magnitude larger than due to standard “first-moment” TFP shocks. This result represents substantial improvement over baseline analyses of accelerator models, though it is still five times lower than the volatility of borrowers” (firms’) leverage ratios I document using Compustat data. In terms of macroeconomic aggregate quantities, pure dispersion shocks account for a small share of GDP fluctuations in the model, less than five percent. Depending on whether or not second-moment fluctuations are independent from or intertwined with shocks to the mean level of productivity, the model also performs well in explaining either (but not both) the observed acyclicality of borrowers’ leverage or the observed countercyclicality of firm-level dispersion. Overall, the mechanism the model articulates is conceptually clear and seems quantitatively promising.
- January 13, 2010
- Morten Bech (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
- The Mechanics of a Graceful Exit
- January 12, 2010
- Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau (Tepper-CMU)
- The Cyclical Volatility of Labor Markets under Frictional Financial Markets
- January 06, 2010
- Viral Acharya (NYU)
- Measuring Systemic Risk
- December 22, 2009
- Jian Cai (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
- Diversification or Specialization? An Analysis of Distance and Collaboration in Loan Syndication Networks
- December 08, 2009
- Mikhail Oet (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
- Framework for a Supervisory Systemic Risk Early Warning Model
- 12.02.09 | 12:00-1:30
- Ellen McGrattan (Minneapolis Fed)
- Transition to FDI Openness
- 12.01.09 | 11:00-12:30
- Jesper Linde (Federal Reserve Board)
- Is There a Fiscal Free Lunch in a Liquidity Trap?
- 11.30.09 | 10:30-12:00
- Andrea Pescatori (Cleveland Fed)
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s DSGE Macro Model: Structure and Performance
- November 23, 2009
- Martin Saldias-Zambrana
- Systemic Risk Indicators Embedded in Distance-to-Default
- November 13, 2009
- Peter Ritchken, Case Western Reserve University
- On Correlation and Default Clustering in Credit Markets
- October 21, 2009
- Eric Young, University of Virginia
- Constrained Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Shocks and Elastic Labor Supply
- October 20, 2009
- Joe Haslag, University of Missouri
- Production, Hidden Action, and the Payment System
- September 25, 2009
- James MacGee (Western Ontario)
- A Multi-sectoral Approach to the U.S. Great Depression
- 4.14.2009 | 12-1 | Rm 943
- Charles T. Carlstrom, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Legacy Assets and TALF: Price Discovery and Adverse Selection
- 04.08.09 | 12 - 1 | 943
- Charles T. Carlstrom, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Housing Prices, Monetary Policy and the Role of Credit Frictions
- 03.25.09 | 11-12:30
- Shigeru Fujita, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
- Worker Flows and Job Flows: A Quantitative Investigation
- 3.24.09 | 12-1:30
- Michele Tertilt, Stanford University
- TDA
- 3.19.09 | 2-3:30
- Orgul Demet Ozturk, University of South Carolina (PDF)
- Good Jobs, Bad Jobs, and Welfare Independence
- 12.18.08 | 11-12:30
- Albert J. Sumell, Youngstown state University
- The Determinants of Foreclosed Property Values: Evidence from Inner City Cleveland
- 12.15.08 | 11-12:30
- Christa Bouwman, Case Western Reserve University (PDF)
- Financial Crises and Bank Liquidity Creation
- 12.11.08 :: 12:30-1:30
- Qian Liu, Queens University
- The Hot Potato Effect of Inflation (joint with Randy Wright)
- 11.12.08 | 2-3:30
- Peter Rupert, UC Santa Barbara
- Housing and the Labor Market: Time to Move and Aggregate Unemployment
- 11.10.2008
- Francisca Richter, FRB Cleveland (PDF)
- An Analysis of Foreclosure Rate Differentials in Soft Markets
- October 15, 2008
- Randy Wright, University of Pennsylvania
- Uniqueness of Monetary Steady State Equilibrium
- October 14, 2008
- Mei Dong, Simon Fraser University (PDF)
- Money and Costly Credit
- June 04, 2008
- Gabriele Camera, University of Iowa
- May 21, 2008
- Bruce Weinberg, Ohio State University
- Social Interactions with Endogenous Associations
- May 07, 2008
- Marianna Kudlyak, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (PDF)
- The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor with Search and Matching
- 05.01.08 | 2:00-3:00 p.m.
- Rafael Silveira, University of Pennsylvania
- The Venture Capital Cycle (joint with Randy Wright)
- April 30, 2008
- Ahmet Akyol, York University (visiting Richmond Fed)
- Earnings in the Presence of Limited Liability and Occupational Choice
- April 14, 2008
- Russell Cooper, University of Texas at Austin
- April 09, 2008
- Rasmus Lentz, University of Wisconsin
- TBD
- March 26, 2008
- Jason Faberman, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
- Job Flows, Jobless Recoveries, and the Great Moderation
- March 6, 2008
- Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan
- What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?
- 2.27.08
- Emilio Espino, Universidad T. Di Tella
- 2.20.08
- Yongsung Chang, University of Rochester
- February 13, 2008
- Sebastian Buttet, Cleveland State University (PDF)
- Engines of Liberation: The Impact of Technological Progress in an Imperfect Competition Setting
- January 16 , 2008
- Yi Daniel Xu, New York University
- A Structural Empirical Model of R&D, Firm Heterogeneity, and Industry Evolution
- 1.8.08
- Guntram Wolff, Deutsche Bundesbank
- December 19, 2007
- Nicola Cetorelli, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- The Impact of Bank Competition on the Life-Cycle Dynamics of Nonfinancial Firms
- December 11, 2007
- Gadi Barlevy, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
- A Leverage-Based Model of Speculative Bubbles
- November 28, 2007
- Alex Edmans, the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (PDF)
- A Calibratable Model of Optimal CEO Incentives in Market Equilibrium
- November 14, 2007
- Gian Luca Clementi, Stern School of Business, New York University (PDF)
- Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Preferences
- November 7, 2007
- Roberto M. Billi, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank (PDF)
- Optimal Inflation for the United States
- October 31, 2007
- Paul Shea, University of Kentucky (PDF)
- Red Herrings and Revelations: The Destabilizing and Stabilizing Effects of Economic Theory
- October 11, 2006
- Francisco Buera, Northwestern University
- The Rise of the Service Economy
- October 11, 2007
- Nick Bloom, Stanford University (PDF)
- The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
- October 3, 2007
- Patrick Bajari, University of Minnesota (PDF)
- Estimating Hedonic Models of Consumer Demand with an Application to Urban Sprawl
- September 26, 2007 :: 11:00 a.m.
- Sevin Yeltekin Sleet, Carnegie Mellon University (PDF)
- Does the U.S. Government Hedge against Expenditure Risk?
- September 6, 2007
- Aysegul Sahin, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- June 14, 2007
- Manolis Galenianos, Pennsylvania State University
- June 13, 2007
- Todd Keister, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- June 6, 2007
- Toshihiko Mukoyama, University of Virginia
- May 30, 2007
- Nick Bloom, Stanford University
- May 23, 2007
- Bjoern Bruegemann, Yale University
- May 16, 2007
- Ted Temzelides, University of Pittsburgh
- April 25, 2007
- Matthias Doepke, UCLA
- April 18, 2007
- Min Ouyang, University of California at Irvine
- April 11, 2007
- Andrew Lo, MIT
- April 6, 2007
- David Frame, Carnegie-Mellon University
- April 4, 2007
- Chad Syverson, University of Chicago
- March 28, 2007
- John Stevens, Federal Reserve Board
- March 7, 2007
- Jocelyn Finlay, Harvard University
- The Role of Health in Economic Development
- February 28, 2007
- Nobu Kiyotaki, Princeton University
- February 21, 2007
- Erik Devos, Ohio University
- February 7, 2007
- Andrea Pescatori, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- January 17, 2007
- Alain Delacroix, University of Quebec at Montreal
- December 18, 2006
- Ben Lester, University of Pennsylvania
- December 12, 2006
- Alexei Deviatov, New Economy School
- Estimating a Cagan-type Demand Function for Gold: 1561-1913
- November 29, 2006
- Guido Menzio, University of Pennsylvania
- November 21, 2006
- Andrew Bernard, Dartmouth
- November 15, 2006
- Pierre-Alexandre Noual, University of Chicago
- November 14, 2006
- Larry Jones, University of Minnesota and the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
- Baby Booms and Baby Busts: The Response of Fertility to Shocks in Dynastic Models
- November 8, 2006
- James Schmitz, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
- November 1, 2006
- Kartik Athreya, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
- October 4, 2006
- Raoul Minetti, Michigan State University (PDF)
- Foreign Lenders in Emerging Economies
- September 25, 2006
- Ayse Imrohoroglu, University of Southern California (PDF)
- Secular Trends in U.S. Saving and Consumption
- September 21, 2006
- Thomas Holmes, University of Minnesota
- The Diffusion of Wal-Mart and Economies of Density
- September 5, 2006
- Donghoon Lee, New York University (PDF)
- Accounting for Wage and Employment Changes in the U.S. from 1968-2000: A Dynamic Model of Labor Market Equilibrium
- September 25, 1980
- A Multisectoral Approach to the U.S. Great Depression
- 4.14.09 | 12-1
- Charles T. Carlstrom, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Legacy Assets and TALF: Price Discovery and Adverse Selection
- Fri 12/02/2011 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM
- Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)
- Topics on the ZLB: Supply-side Policies and the ZLB and the Nonlinear Adventures at the ZLB
Past Workshops
- September 13-14, 2012
- The Economics of Education
- This workshop will be held jointly with the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Gatton College of Business and Economics at the University of Kentucky.
- November 14, 2009
- Northeast Ohio Economics Workshop
- This workshop provides economists in Northeast Ohio with an opportunity to present their research and fosters ties between area researchers who may have similar interests. The workshop is a great opportunity for junior faculty to network with one another and receive feedback on their research.