Current Physician Workforce

The starting point for projecting physician supply is estimating the size and characteristics of the current physician workforce. The primary sources for this information are the American Medical Association (AMA) and the American Osteopathic Association (AOA). As of the base year (2000), an estimated 756,000 ^[3] active physicians under age 75 were practicing in the United States. Approximately 95 percent are MDs and 5 percent are DOs. PSM projections suggest that the current number of active physicians under age 75 (as of 2005) is approximately 817,500. Slightly over one third are generalists (family practice, general pediatrics or general internal medicine); the remaining two thirds are specialists (Exhibit 2).

 [D]

Physician demographics have important supply implications. Physician age is correlated with retirement probability and annual hours worked, and a growing proportion of physicians are nearing historical retirement age as illustrated by the shifting physician age distribution (Exhibit 3).

[D]

Currently, one in four physicians is female, but two factors are contributing to a rise in female representation. First, during the past three decades the proportion of new medical graduates who are female has risen from 10 percent to close to 50 percent. Second, the growth in female representation is a relatively recent phenomenon, and it is predominantly male physicians who are nearing retirement age. Although one in three active male physicians is age 55 or older, only one in eight active female physicians is age 55 or older. Because work and retirement patterns differ systematically for male and female physicians, the increasing proportion of physicians who are female has profound implications for the overall supply of physician services. Female physicians are more likely than their male counterparts to choose non-surgical specialties and to spend fewer hours per year providing patient care. They are also less likely to work in rural areas, and they tend to retire slightly earlier. The PSM also tracks primary activity (patient care or other). An estimated 94 percent of active physicians are engaged primarily in patient care activities, while the remaining 6 percent are engaged primarily in non-patient care activities such as administration, teaching, research, and others.