Growth
and Aging of the Population
The United States Census Bureau projects
a rapid increase in the elderly population beginning in
2012 when the leading edge of the baby boom generation approaches
age 65 (Exhibit 21). Between 2005 and 2020, the population
younger than age 65 is expected to grow by about 9 percent,
while the population age 65 and older is projected to grow
by about 50 percent.
Exhibit
21. Population Growth, 2000 to 2020
[D]
Source: United
States Census Bureau population projections (April 2005
release).
The elderly use
much greater levels of physician services relative to the
non-elderly, so the rapid growth of the elderly population
portends a significant increase in demand for physician
services. To estimate differences in use of physician services
by different demographic groups, for each physician specialty
we estimated per capita encounters for segments of the United
States population categorized by age, sex, and insurance
status (BHPr, 2003). After determining what portion of physicians’
time is spent with each segment of the population, we calculated
physician-per-population ratios that reflect current use
patterns and current patterns of care.
For
presentation purposes, these ratios are summarized in estimates
of physician requirements per 100,000 population for four
categories of physicians and six age groups (Exhibit 22).
In 2000, for the United States population as a whole, approximately
253 active physicians (MDs and DOs) were engaged primarily
in patient care per 100,000 population.
[11]
The aggregate estimates ranged from a low of 149 for the
population ages 0 to 17, to a high of 781 for the population
ages 75 and older. The ratios vary substantially by medical
specialty. These data suggest that the aging of the population
will contribute to faster growth, in percentage terms, for
specialist services relative to the growth in demand for
primary care services.
Exhibit
22. Estimated Requirements for Patient Care Physicians
per 100,000 Population, by Patient Age and Physician Specialty,
2000
|
Age Group |
Primary
1 Care |
Medical
2 Specialties |
Surgery
3 |
Other 4 Care |
Total |
|
0� years |
95 |
10 |
16 |
29 |
149 |
|
18� years |
43 |
15 |
54 |
48 |
159 |
|
25� years |
59 |
23 |
52 |
62 |
196 |
|
45� years |
89 |
41 |
59 |
81 |
270 |
|
65� years |
175 |
97 |
125 |
145 |
543 |
|
75+ years |
270 |
130 |
161 |
220 |
781 |
|
Total |
95 |
33 |
55 |
70 |
253 |
Source:
PRM.1 Includes general and family practice,
general internal medicine, and pediatrics.
2 Includes cardiology and other internal medicine
subspecialties.3 Includes general surgery,
obstetrics/gynecology, ophthalmology, orthopedic surgery,
otolaryngology, urology and other surgical specialties.4
Includes anesthesiology, emergency medicine, pathology,
psychiatry, radiology, and other specialties. |
