Physician Requirements Model

The PRM uses a utilization-based approach to estimate physician requirements. ^[9] The PRM projects requirements for 18 medical specialties through 2020 based on current use patterns of physician services and expected trends in United States demographics, insurance coverage, and patterns of care delivery. These use patterns are expressed as physician-to-population ratios for each specialty and population segment defined by age, sex, metropolitan/non-metropolitan location, and insurance type. The baseline ratios are established using 2000 data. Thus, the three major components of the model are:

(1) Population projections by age, ^[10] sex, and metropolitan/non-metropolitan location;

(2) Projected insurance distribution by insurance type, age, sex, metropolitan/non-metropolitan location; and

(3) Detailed physician-to-population ratios (Exhibit 20).

Exhibit 20. Overview of the Physician Demand Model

[D]

Below, we explore trends in major determinants of physician requirements as well as potential impact of alternative assumptions regarding these trends.