COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of January 11, 2021.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

• This week, CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 39 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. Of the 39 groups, 35 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only.
• This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that 16,200 to 29,600 new deaths will likely be reported in the week ending February 6, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 440,000 to 477,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
• The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 3 jurisdictions and decrease in 1 jurisdiction, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

National Forecast

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• The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from November 7 through January 9 and forecasted new deaths over the next 4 weeks, through February 6.
• The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from November 7 through January 9 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks, through February 6.
• Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.

Download national forecast data excel icon[XLS – 28 KB]

State Forecasts

Plots of individual state forecasts, each state-level ensemble forecast, and the underlying data can be downloaded below. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[2 MB, 29 pages] ¹

Download forecast data excel icon[CSV – 1 MB]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.

Ensemble Forecast

An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks. Both national- and state-level ensemble forecasts are developed for predicting new and total COVID-19 deaths reported each week for the next 4 weeks. Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon describes its accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning.

Forecast Inclusion and Assumptions

The forecast included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid-19-forecast-hub#ensemble-modelexternal icon.

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon. The list below includes all models that submitted a national- or state-level forecast.

Forecasts fall into one of two categories:

• These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
  • Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: Columbia)
  • Covid-19 Simulator Consortiumexternal icon (Model: Covid19Sim)
  • Google and Harvard School of Public Healthexternal icon (Model: Google-HSPH)
  • Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-IDD)
  • Predictive Science Inc.external icon (Model: PSI)
  • University of California, Los Angelesexternal icon (Model: UCLA)

• These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected 4-week time period:
  • Bob Paganoexternal icon (Model: BPagano)
  • Carnegie Mellon Delphi Groupexternal icon (Model: CMU)
  • Columbia University and University of North Carolinaexternal icon (Model: Columbia-UNC)
  • Discrete Dynamical Systemsexternal icon (Model: DDS)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
  • Iowa State Universityexternal icon (Model: ISU)
  • Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-APL)
  • Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineeringexternal icon  (Model: JHU-CSSE)
  • Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineexternal icon (Model: LSHTM)
  • Los Alamos National Laboratoryexternal icon (Model: LANL)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, COVID-19 Policy Allianceexternal icon (Model: MIT-CovAlliance)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Computational Physiologyexternal icon (Model: MIT-LCP)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Centerexternal icon (Model: MIT-ORC)
  • Microsoft AIexternal icon (Model: Microsoft)
  • Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systemsexternal icon (Model: MOBS)
  • Oliver Wymanexternal icon (Model: Oliver Wyman)
  • Qi-Jun Hongexternal icon (Model: QJHong)
  • Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and University of Washingtonexternal icon (Model: RPI-UW)
  • Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
  • Signature Scienceexternal icon (Model: SignatureScience)
  • Steve McConnellexternal icon (Model: CovidComplete)
  • State University of New York, Upstate Medical Universityexternal icon (Model: SUNY)
  • University of Arizonaexternal icon (Model: UA)
  • University of California, Mercedexternal icon (Model: UCM)
  • University of California, Santa Barbaraexternal icon (Model: UCSB)
  • University of California, San Diego and Northeastern Universityexternal icon (Model: UCSD-NEU)
  • University of Georgia, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseaseexternal icon (Model: UGA-CEID)
  • University of Massachusetts, Amherstexternal icon (Models: UMass-MB and Ensemble)
  • University of Michiganexternal icon (Model: UM)
  • University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)
  • University of Texas, Austinexternal icon (Model: UT)
  • Walmart Labs Data Science Teamtxt iconexternal icon (Model: Walmart)

¹ The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.