NOTES: The views presented in the articles in this
journal are those of the authors and not necessarily
the views of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
All material contained in this journal is in the public
domain and may be used and reprinted without special permission;
citation as to sources is required.
The Journal of Transportation and Statistics has been discontinued by BTS because of budget constraints. Papers are therefore no longer being accepted or considered for publication. BTS hopes to bring the Journal back as a virtual publication in the future, and will post any news about the status of JTS on this page.
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| Editorial Board |
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| Contributors |
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| Front Matter |
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| Letter from the Editor-in-Chief |
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| Introduction to the Special Issue on Forecasting |
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Paper 1 - Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy by Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. |
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| Table 1 - Borderplex Model Variables |
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| Table 2 - Borderplex Bridge and Air Equation Estimation Results |
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| Table 3 - Borderplex Transportation Historical and Forecast Data |
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| Table 4 - Air Series Predictive Accuracy |
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| Table 5 - Bridge Series Predictive Accuracy |
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| Figure 1 - Borderplex Model Design |
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| Figure 2 - Borderplex Air Activity |
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| Figure 3 - Borderplex Bridge Activity: 1978-2003 |
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Paper 2 - Estimating Commodity Inflows to a Substate Region Using Input-Output Data: Commodity Flow Survey Accuracy Tests by Louie Nan Liu and Pierre Vilain |
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| Table 1 - Regression Results for the Effect of Distance and Commodity Tonnage on Forecast Accuracy |
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| Table 2 - Regression Results for the Effect of Distance and the Relative Importance of a Commodity on Forecast Accuracy |
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| Table A1 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Massachusetts |
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| Table A2 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to New York |
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| Table A3 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Pennsylvania |
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| Table A4 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Ohio |
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| Table A5 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Illinois |
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| Table A6 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to California |
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| Table A7 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Washington |
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Paper 3 -Monthly Forecasts of Integrated Public Transport Systems: The Case of the Madrid Metropolitan Area by Antonio García-Ferrer, Aránzazu de Juan, Pilar Poncela, and Marcos Bujosa |
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| Table 1 - Definitions of the Main Variables |
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| Table 2 - Descriptive Statistics of the Logs of the Main Variables |
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| Table 3 - Definitions of Intervention Variables |
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| Table 4 - Estimated Causal Models for the Metro and Bus Variables |
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| Table 5 - Estimated Causal Models for TC and JTC |
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| Table 6 - NVR Estimates of the Main Variables |
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| Table 7 - Mean Absolute Value (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro and Bus Tickets and Travel Cards for Alternative Models |
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| Table 8 - Annual Percentage Errors (APE), Forecasted Annual Growth Rates (FGR), Observed Annual Growth Rates (OGR) of h = 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro, Bus Tickets, and Travel Cards for Alternative Models |
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| Table 9 - Comparison of Forecast Accuracy: Results of the Diebold-Mariano (DM) and Modified Diebold-Mariano (DM*) Tests for the Square Loss Function and Several Forecast Horizons |
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| Table 10 - Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro and Bus Tickets and Travel Cards for the DHR, Causal, and Average Forecasts |
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| Table 11 - RMSE of the Different 1-Step-Ahead Forecasts of JTC |
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| Figure 1 - Logs Showing the Main Variables: January 1991-December 2002 |
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Paper 4 - Predicting and Monitoring Casualty Numbers in Great Britain by Robert Raeside |
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| Table 1 - Coefficients and Fit of Models for Forecasting the Natural Logarithm of the Numbers of Fatal and Serious Casualties and of the Rate of Slight Casualties |
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| Table 2 - Coefficients and Fit of Models for Forecasting the Natural Logarithm of the Number of Child and Pedestrian KSI Casualties |
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| Table 3 - Probabilities of Attaining Road Accident Improvement Targets by 2010 |
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| Figure 1 - Casualty Trends in Great Britain: 1991-2001 |
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| Figure 2 - Casualty Trends by Type |
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| Figure 3 - Forecasts of Fatalities, Serious Casualties, and Slight Casualties |
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| Figure 4 - Forecasts of Child and Pedestrian KSIs |
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Paper 5 - Estimating the Impact of Recent Interventions on Transportation Indicators by Keith Ord and Peg Young |
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| Table 1 - Statistical Definitions of Assignable Causes in Time Series |
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| Table 2 - Some of the Principal Models in the Structural Framework |
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| Table 3 - Summary of Data Structure and Changes Since Earlier Analyses |
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| Table 4 - Original Models for Each Series |
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| Table 5 - Results of Intervention Analyses for the Five Series |
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| Table 6 - Relative Values (RV) of MAPE Using Different Forecast Origins |
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| Figure 1 - Example of Additive Outlier (AO) |
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| Figure 2 - Example of Temporary Change (TC) |
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| Figure 3 - Example of Level Shift (LS) |
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| Figure 4 - Percentage of Scheduled Flights for Major U.S. Air Carriers Not Arriving on Time: September 1987-February 2002 |
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| Figure 5 - Smoothed Components of the Late Arrivals Series |
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| Figure 6 - Filtered Components of the Late Arrivals Series: September 1987-August 2001 |
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| Figure 7 - Shewhart Chart of Standardized Residuals of Late Arrivals Series: September 1987-February 2002 |
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| Figure 8 - Trend for Late Arrival Series: September 1987-February 2002 |
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| Figure 9 - Percentage of Scheduled Flights Canceled by Major U.S. Carriers: September 1987-February 2002 |
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| Figure 10 - Number of Enplanements on Domestic Aircraft: September 1987-February 2002 |
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| Figure 11 - Revenue-Earning Miles Flown by Passengers on Major U.S. Carriers: January 1991-February 2002 |
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| Figure 12 - Revenue-Earning Passenger-Miles Carried by AMTRAK and the Alaska Railroad: January 1979-November 2002 |
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| Figure 13 - Air Revenue Passsenger-Miles Forecast (as of December 2001) with No Interventions for September 2001: January 1991-August 2003 |
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| Figure 14 - Air Revenue Passenger-Miles Forecasts (as of December 2001) with Three-Interventions for September 2001: January 1991-August 2003 |
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Paper 6 - Airline Networks: An Econometric Framework to Analyze Domestic U.S. Air Travel by Dipasis Bhadra and Pamela Texter |
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| Table 1 - System of Scheduled Aviation Activities in the United States: Number of Passengers and Aircraft Departures (in natural logs) |
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| Figure 1 - U.S. Airline Industry Capacity Adjustments Since 2000 |
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| Figure 2 - Airline Market Share by Type of Carrier |
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| Figure 3 - Number of Scheduled Flights by Type of Aircraft: April 2000 and April 2004 |
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| Figure 4 - Annual Passenger Enplanements at Airports, by Type of Network Variant |
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| Figure 5 - Illustration of T100 Data |
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| Figure 6 - Impact of a One Percentage Point Change in Southwest Airlines' Market Share on Different Variants of the Network |
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| Figure 7 - Effect of 9/11 on Different Variants of the Network |
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| Appendix A - Activities at 35 Operational Evolution Plan (OEP) Airports in the United States: 2002 |
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| Guidelines for Manuscript Submission |
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| Back Cover |
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