Tropical Cyclone Report
Hurricane Kyle
20 September - 12 October 2002
Stacy R. Stewart
National Hurricane Center 16 November 2002
Hurricane Kyle was a category 1 hurricane (on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)
that lasted for 22 days and became the third
longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Kyle
eventually made landfall along the southeastern United States coast
as a weak tropical storm before moving back out to sea.
a. Synoptic History
Kyle formed from a non-tropical low pressure system in the
central North Atlantic Ocean. A cold front moved across Bermuda on
13 September and stalled to the southeast of the island by 15
September. The stationary front gradually weakened and became an
elongated area of low pressure by 18 September. A sharp mid-level
shortwave trough moved off the southeast coast of the United States
and likely acted as the triggering mechanism for the development of
a stationary low pressure center by 1200 UTC 19 September about 750
n mi east-southeast of Bermuda. Thunderstorms gradually developed
into narrow bands a few hundred miles away from the well-defined
low-level circulation center. Surface winds gradually increased to
25 kt early on 20 September and the overall satellite cloud pattern
became much better organized. At 1800 UTC that day, it is estimated
that Subtropical Depression Twelve had developed about 715 n mi
east-southeast of Bermuda. Later that day, the system made a
clockwise loop as it became embedded in the weak steering flow
region(or "col") between its parent upper-level low to the south
and a mid-latitude trough to the north. The "best track" chart of
the tropical cyclone's path is given in Figure 1, with the wind and
pressure histories shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3,
respectively. The best
track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1.
Based on Dvorak satellite intensity values, it is estimated that
the cyclone became Subtropical Storm Kyle at 0600 UTC 21 September
when it was about 680 n mi east of Bermuda. While making the loop,
thunderstorms developed around the low-level center and Kyle
gradually acquired warm-core tropical characteristics. It is
estimated that Kyle became a tropical storm at 1800 UTC 22
September about 760 n mi east of Bermuda. Under the influence of
weak steering currents, Tropical Storm Kyle drifted erratically
toward the southwest for about a week and steadily intensified.
Kyle became a hurricane at 1200 UTC 25 September about 550 n mi
east-southeast of Bermuda. A peak intensity of 75 kt is estimated
to have occurred at 1200 UTC 26 September about 425 n mi
east-southeast of Bermuda. Kyle maintained this intensity for the
next 24 hours before gradually weakening under the influence of
moderate northwesterly to northerly vertical shear.
After Kyle weakened below tropical storm strength at 1800 UTC 30
September, the cyclone made a slow counter-clockwise loop about 300
n mi west of Bermuda from 5-8 October. Afterwards, Kyle moved
westward and then northwestward before making landfall along the
South Carolina coast late on 11 October. During this period,
fluctuations in intensity occurred and Kyle strengthened back into
a tropical storm on 1, 6, and 11 October.
After making its first landfall near McClellanville, South
Carolina at around 1700 UTC 11 October, Tropical Storm Kyle moved
northeastward and skirted the remaining upper coastline of South
Carolina. Its center moved inland again a few hours later near Long
Beach, North Carolina around 2200 UTC. Kyle weakened to a tropical
depression by 0000 UTC 12 October near Surf City, North Carolina
and then strengthened back into a tropical storm over Pamlico Sound
six hours later. Shortly thereafter, it exited the eastern portion
of the state near Nags Head at around 0800 UTC. The cyclone
eventually merged with a cold front later that day at 1200 UTC,
when it was located about 280 n mi south-southwest of Nantucket,
Massachusetts.
Kyle lasted for 22 days making it the third longest-lived
Atlantic tropical cyclone, after Ginger of 1971 and Inga of
1969.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Kyle (Figure 2 and Figure 3)
include
satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite
Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency
(AFWA), as well as flight-level observations from flights of the
53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air
Force Reserve Command.
Ship reports of tropical storm force winds associated
with Kyle are given in Table 2, and selected surface observations
from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 3.
Kyle's peak intensity of 75 kt from 1200 UTC 26
September to 1200 UTC 27 September is based on a blend of
subjective and 3-h objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates.
The minimum pressure of 980 mb at 0000 UTC 27 September is
estimated based Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, and on the
best appearance and definition of the eye in both visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The 35-kt intensity at landfall along
the South and North Carolina coasts was based on a blend of 1500 ft
flight-level winds of 38 kt (reduced to 32 kt surface wind
estimate) and offshore buoy reports of 10-minute average wind
speeds of 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. However, tropical storm force
winds were confined to offshore waters in the eastern semicircle
and there were no reports of sustained tropical storm force winds
along or inland of the United States coast.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
As a result of the relatively weak sustained winds at
landfall, Kyle caused no significant structural damage and only
minor beach erosion was reported along the North Carolina and South
Carolina coastlines. Storm surge values were generally around 1 ft
from Florida to North Carolina, with a few isolated occurrences of
near 2 ft at Fort Pulaski, Georgia and at Charleston Harbor, South
Carolina.
Rainfall totals were generally less than 2 in with a
few isolated amounts of 5-6 in reported. Minor urban flooding
occurred.
At least 4 tornadoes were reported across eastern
South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina during Kyle's
passage. In South Carolina, an F2 tornado touched down in
Georgetown, and tossed and severely damaged 5 mobile homes and a
car. Twenty-five additional structures sustained at least minor
damage. Eight people were injured.
In North Carolina, a damaging F1-F2 tornado touched
down near Pantego, in Beaufort County. The tornado flipped one
mobile home, blew the roof off of one house, and destroyed 7 hog
houses on Benson Farms, which resulted in $1.5-2.0 million in
damage . Weaker tornadoes touched down in Belvoir and overturned
two mobile homes and knocked a house off its foundation. Another
weak tornado touched down east of Washington, North Carolina
causing no damage. No injuries were reported with any of the North
Carolina tornadoes.
The reported insured losses associated with Kyle were
approximately $2.5 million. Total damages is estimated at $5.0
million.
No deaths were reported in association with Kyle.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Average official track errors (with the number
of cases in parentheses) for Kyle were 33 (56), 59 (51), 96 (46),
131 (44), and 190 (45)n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h forecasts,
respectively. These errors are lower than the average official
track errors for the 10-yr period 1992-2001: 43, 81, 115, 148, and
222 n mi, respectively (Table 4). The GFDL model (not available at
the forecast preparation time) was better than the official
forecast (OFCL) at all times, especially at and beyond 36 h. The
GUNS and GUNA ensemble models were also better than the OFCL at all
times, and much better than the GFDL at 48 and 72 h.
Average official intensity errors were 4, 7, 9, 11,
and 14 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h forecasts, respectively.
For comparison, the average official intensity errors over the
10-yr period 1992-2001 are: 7, 11, 14, 16, and 19 kt, respectively.
While the official intensity errors were lower than the 10-year
average, there was a slight positive bias (over forecast). However,
the official intensity errors were lower than the SHIPS, SHIFOR,
GFDL, and GFDI intensity forecast model errors.
A total of 89 advisories were written
on Kyle and the cyclone weakened below and then
strengthened back to tropical storm or subtropical storm status on
four separate occasions.
Table 5 lists the
watches and warnings associated with Kyle.
Acknowledgments
Some of the data in this report was furnished by
National Weather Service Forecast Offices in Jacksonville, FL,
Charleston, SC, Wilmington, NC and Newport/Morehead City, NC.
Table 1: Best track for
Hurricane Kyle, 20 September - 12 October 2002.
Date/Time (UTC) | Position | Pressure (mb) | Wind Speed (kt) | Stage |
Lat. (°N) | Lon. (°W) |
20 / 1800 | 28.3 | 51.8 | 1007 | 25 | subtropical depression |
21 / 0000 | 29.3 | 51.4 | 1007 | 30 | " |
21 / 0600 | 30.4 | 51.6 | 1007 | 35 | subtropical storm |
21 / 1200 | 31.0 | 51.6 | 1007 | 35 | " |
21 / 1800 | 31.7 | 51.3 | 1006 | 40 | " |
22 / 0000 | 32.4 | 50.9 | 1004 | 45 | " |
22 / 0600 | 32.8 | 50.5 | 1006 | 40 | " |
22 / 1200 | 33.2 | 49.9 | 1006 | 40 | " |
22 / 1800 | 33.3 | 49.5 | 1006 | 40 | " |
23 / 0000 | 33.2 | 49.1 | 1007 | 35 | tropical storm |
23 / 0600 | 32.7 | 49.4 | 1007 | 35 | " |
23 / 1200 | 32.3 | 49.5 | 1005 | 35 | " |
23 / 1800 | 31.9 | 49.6 | 1003 | 40 | " |
24 / 0000 | 31.4 | 50.0 | 1003 | 40 | " |
24 / 0600 | 31.0 | 50.4 | 1000 | 45 | " |
24 / 1200 | 30.6 | 50.7 | 997 | 50 | " |
24 / 1800 | 30.3 | 51.1 | 994 | 55 | " |
25 / 0000 | 30.0 | 52.1 | 994 | 55 | " |
25 / 0600 | 29.7 | 53.7 | 994 | 55 | " |
25 / 1200 | 29.3 | 54.4 | 990 | 60 | " |
25 / 1800 | 29.0 | 55.3 | 987 | 65 | hurricane |
26 / 0000 | 28.6 | 56.6 | 987 | 65 | " |
26 / 0600 | 28.2 | 57.5 | 984 | 70 | " |
26 / 1200 | 27.9 | 58.3 | 982 | 75 | " |
26 / 1800 | 27.8 | 59.0 | 981 | 75 | " |
27 / 0000 | 27.5 | 59.5 | 980 | 75 | " |
27 / 0600 | 27.1 | 60.0 | 982 | 75 | " |
27 / 1200 | 27.0 | 60.4 | 982 | 75 | " |
27 / 1800 | 26.8 | 60.8 | 984 | 70 | " |
28 / 0000 | 26.5 | 61.4 | 984 | 70 | " |
28 / 0600 | 26.3 | 62.3 | 987 | 65 | " |
28 / 1200 | 26.5 | 62.9 | 990 | 60 | tropical storm |
28 / 1800 | 26.7 | 63.2 | 997 | 50 | " |
29 / 0000 | 27.1 | 63.7 | 1000 | 45 | " |
29 / 0600 | 27.2 | 64.4 | 1002 | 40 | " |
29 / 1200 | 27.7 | 64.7 | 1002 | 40 | " |
29 / 1800 | 28.1 | 64.7 | 1002 | 40 | " |
30 / 0000 | 28.7 | 64.6 | 1002 | 40 | " |
30 / 0600 | 29.1 | 64.7 | 1003 | 35 | " |
30 / 1200 | 29.0 | 65.5 | 1004 | 35 | " |
30 / 1800 | 27.8 | 66.7 | 1005 | 30 | tropical depression |
01 / 0000 | 28.2 | 66.8 | 1005 | 30 | " |
01 / 0600 | 28.5 | 66.8 | 1008 | 30 | " |
01 / 1200 | 28.5 | 67.2 | 1005 | 35 | tropical storm |
01 / 1800 | 28.5 | 67.5 | 1002 | 40 | " |
02 / 0000 | 28.4 | 67.7 | 1000 | 45 | " |
02 / 0600 | 28.5 | 67.8 | 1000 | 45 | " |
02 / 1200 | 28.8 | 67.6 | 997 | 50 | " |
02 / 1800 | 29.0 | 66.9 | 994 | 55 | " |
03 / 0000 | 29.1 | 66.7 | 994 | 55 | " |
03 / 0600 | 29.0 | 66.6 | 994 | 55 | " |
03 / 1200 | 29.0 | 67.2 | 1000 | 50 | " |
03 / 1800 | 29.3 | 67.7 | 1000 | 45 | " |
04 / 0000 | 29.4 | 68.0 | 1000 | 45 | " |
04 / 0600 | 29.6 | 68.4 | 1000 | 35 | " |
04 / 1200 | 30.1 | 69.5 | 1004 | 35 | " |
04 / 1800 | 30.6 | 70.2 | 1004 | 35 | " |
05 / 0000 | 31.1 | 70.9 | 1004 | 35 | " |
05 / 0600 | 31.6 | 71.6 | 1006 | 30 | tropical depression |
05 / 1200 | 32.3 | 71.3 | 1005 | 30 | " |
05 / 1800 | 32.9 | 70.8 | 1005 | 30 | " |
06 / 0000 | 33.2 | 70.1 | 1006 | 30 | " |
06 / 0600 | 33.6 | 69.7 | 1008 | 30 | " |
06 / 1200 | 33.3 | 69.7 | 1007 | 35 | tropical storm |
06 / 1800 | 32.8 | 69.7 | 1006 | 35 | " |
07 / 0000 | 32.6 | 69.7 | 1006 | 35 | " |
07 / 0600 | 32.6 | 70.4 | 1006 | 35 | " |
07 / 1200 | 32.6 | 70.8 | 1006 | 35 | " |
07 / 1800 | 32.7 | 70.9 | 1006 | 35 | " |
08 / 0000 | 32.6 | 71.0 | 1006 | 35 | " |
08 / 0600 | 32.1 | 71.2 | 1006 | 35 | " |
08 / 1200 | 31.4 | 71.3 | 1006 | 35 | " |
08 / 1800 | 30.7 | 71.9 | 1009 | 30 | tropical depression |
09 / 0000 | 29.8 | 72.4 | 1010 | 30 | " |
09 / 0600 | 29.0 | 73.3 | 1009 | 30 | " |
09 / 1200 | 28.7 | 74.0 | 1010 | 30 | " |
09 / 1800 | 28.5 | 74.8 | 1011 | 25 | " |
10 / 0000 | 28.4 | 75.8 | 1010 | 25 | " |
10 / 0600 | 28.3 | 77.0 | 1010 | 25 | " |
10 / 1200 | 28.4 | 78.1 | 1010 | 25 | " |
10 / 1800 | 28.9 | 79.5 | 1010 | 30 | " |
11 / 0000 | 29.8 | 80.2 | 1009 | 30 | " |
11 / 0600 | 30.7 | 80.8 | 1008 | 35 | tropical storm |
11 / 1200 | 31.8 | 80.7 | 1008 | 35 | " |
11 / 1800 | 33.2 | 79.3 | 1011 | 35 | " |
12 / 0000 | 34.2 | 78.0 | 1012 | 30 | tropical depression |
12 / 0600 | 35.4 | 75.9 | 1009 | 40 | tropical storm |
12 / 1200 | 36.7 | 74.1 | 1009 | 40 | " |
12 / 1800 | | | | | merged with a cold front |
27 / 0000 | 27.5 | 59.5 | 980 | 75 | minimum pressure |
11 / 1700 | 33.0 | 79.5 | 1011 | 35 | 1st landfall near McClellanville, SC |
11 / 2200 | 33.9 | 78.4 | 1011 | 35 | 2nd landfall near Long Beach, NC |
Table 2: Selected ship reports with winds of at least 34
kt for Hurricane Kyle, 20 September - 12 October 2002. (Note: M =
missing data)
Ship Name or Call Sign | Date/Time (UTC) | Lat. (°N) | Lon. (°W) | Wind dir/speed (deg/kt) | Pressure (mb) |
LATU5 | 25 / 0900 | 33.5 | 55.6 | 030 / 40 | 1019.6 |
C6LP4 | 26 / 0600 | 25.1 | 58.2 | 230 / 36 | 1008.0 |
C6LP4 | 26 / 1800 | 23.9 | 61.5 | 270 / 35 | 1009.5 |
ELGJ9 | 29 / 0000 | 23.5 | 65.4 | 270 / 37 | 1011.0 |
ELGJ9 | 29 / 0300 | 23.3 | 66.2 | 270 / 37 | 1011.5 |
ELZA8 | 30 / 1500 | 33.5 | 65.0 | 050 / 42 | 1017.2 |
KGXA | 02 / 0000 | 26.9 | 66.5 | M / 35 | 1010.0 |
SGAK | 12 / 1200 | 37.1 | 74.1 | 090 / 35 | 1012.5 |
LMWR3 | 12 / 1200 | 39.9 | 68.7 | 090 / 41 | 1020.4 |
|
Table 3: Selected surface observations for Hurricane
Kyle, 20 September - 12 October 2002.
| Minimum Sea-level Pressure | Maximum Surface Wind Speed (kt) | |
Location | Date/ Time (UTC) | Press. (mb) | Date/ Timea
(UTC) | Sust. Windb
(kts) | Peak Gust (kts) | Storm Surgec
(ft) | Storm Tided
(ft) | Rain (storm total) (in) |
Florida |
Fernandina Beach | | | | | | 1.31 | | 2.05 |
Jacksonville Beach | | | | | | | | 1.19 |
Mayport | | | | | | 1.17 | | |
St. Augustine
(KSGJ) | 10/2355 | 1013.3 | 10/1615 | 17 | 28 | | | |
Georgia |
Brunswick | | | | | | | | 0.84 |
Eden | | | | | | | | 1.10 |
Fort Pulaski | | | | | | 2.1 | | |
Hunter Field (KSVN) | | | | | | | | 5.35 |
Saint Simons Island | | | | | | 1.07 | | |
Savannah (RAWS) | | | | | | | | 3.30 |
Savannah (KSAV) | 11/1102 | 1012.5 | | | | | | 2.25 |
Woodbine | | | | | | | | 0.85 |
North Carolina |
Bald Head Island | | | 11/2130 | | 43 | 0.5 | | |
Carolina Beach | | | 11/2145 | | 42 | 0.5 | | |
Cherry Point (KNKT) | | | | | | | | 1.02 |
Frisco (KHSE) | 12/0200 | 1010.8 | 12/0200 | | 32 | | | 2.84 |
Greenville (PGVN7) | | | | | | | | 5.60 |
Holden Beach | | | 11/2100 | | 37 | 0.5 | | |
Lumberton | | | | | | | | 2.00 |
Manteo (KMQI) | | | | | | | | 1.23 |
Oak Island | | | 11/2100 | | 38 | | | |
WFO Newport (KMHX) | | | | | | | | 2.99 |
WFO Wilmington | 11/1913 | 1012.2 | | | | | | |
Washington (KOCW) | | | | | | | | 1.99 |
Williamson | | | | | | | | 5.30 |
Williamson 2E | | | | | | | | 4.73 |
South Carolina |
Beaufort | | | | | | | | 2.65 |
Charleston (KCHS) | 11/1540 | 1011.1 | 11/1434 | 20 | 25 | | | 4.91 |
Charleston City Office | | | 11/1400 | | 34 | | | 1.65 |
Charleston Harbor | | | | | | 1.9 | | |
Edisto Beach | | | | | | | | 6.35 |
Georgetown Coast Guard | 11/1800 | 1009.1 | 11/1720 | | 43 | | | 1.82 |
Jamestown | | | | | | | | 1.78 |
Myrtle Beach (KMYR) | 11/1900 | 1011.2 | | | | | | |
N. Myrtle Beach (KCRE) | 11/1913 | 1011.2 | | | | | | 1.10 |
Walterboro | | | | | | | | 3.00 |
Wambam (RAWS) | | | | | | | | 1.67 |
Witherbee (RAWS) | | | | | | | | 5.85 |
NOAA National Data Buoy Center buoys |
41004 (32.5N 79.1W) | | | 11/1400 | | 34 | | | |
41536 (21.8N 67.7W) | 29/0600 | 1014.5 | 29/0600 | 51 | | | | |
41652 (28.7N 65.8W) | 30/0320 | 1007.7 | 30/0320 | 45 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 01/1420 | 1013.4 | | | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 01/1620 | 1014.4 | 01/1620 | 43 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 01/1720 | 1012.8 | 01/1620 | 35 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 02/0320 | 1013.3 | 02/0320 | 41 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 02/0420 | 1013.0 | 02/0420 | 43 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 02/0520 | 1012.6 | 02/0520 | 41 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 02/0920 | 1011.0 | 02/0920 | 35 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 02/1120 | 1011.7 | 02/0920 | 35 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 02/1220 | 1011.6 | 02/1220 | 41 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 02/1720 | 1009.8 | 02/1720 | 43 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.6W) | 02/1820 | 1007.8 | 02/1820 | 37 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.4W) | 03/0220 | 1009.0 | 03/0220 | 35 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.4W) | 03/0320 | 1009.4 | 03/0720 | 39 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.4W) | 03/0520 | 1008.4 | 03/0820 | 39 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.4W) | 03/0620 | 1008.1 | 03/0620 | 41 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.4W) | 03/0720 | 1007.3 | 03/0720 | 43 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.4W) | 03/0820 | 1007.5 | 03/0820 | 35 | | | | |
41652 (28.6N 65.4W) | 03/1120 | 1010.0 | 03/1120 | 37 | | | | |
NOAA National Data Buoy Center C-MAN stations |
FBIS1 (32.7N 79.9W) | | | 11/0307 | | 34 | | | |
FPSN7 (33.5N 77.6W) | | | 11/1700 | 35 | 38 | | | |
FPSN7 (33.5N 77.6W) | 11/2100 | 1012.0 | 11/2100 | 35e | 40 | | | |
DSLN7 (35.2N 75.3W) | | | 11/2210 | 41e | 51 | | | |
DSLN7 (35.2N 75.3W) | 12/0300 | 1010.5 | 12/0500 | 40 | 43 | | | |
DSLN7 (35.2N 75.3W) | | | 12/0500 | 36 | | | | |
DSLN7 (35.2N 75.3W) | 12/0700 | 1010.6 | 12/0700 | 38 | | | | |
CLKN7 (34.6N 76.5W) | 11/2300 | 1011.5 | | | | | | |
ALSN6 (40.5N 73.8W) | | | 12/1300 | 36 | | | | |
aDate/time is for wind gust when both sustained and gust are listed.
bExcept as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOS reports are
2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.
cStorm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.
dStorm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).
e10-min average. |
Table 4: Preliminary forecast evaluation
(heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Kyle, 20 September - 12
October 2002. Forecast errors for tropical storm and hurricane
stages (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in
parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are
shown in bold-face type.
Forecast Technique | Period (hours) |
12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 72 |
CLP5 | 47 (58) | 98 (53) | 169 (48) | 248 (46) | 442 (47) |
GFDI | 28 (52) | 54 (47) | 98 (42) | 133 (40) | 194 (41) |
GFDL | 31 (58) | 49 (53) | 77 (48) | 111 (46) | 172 (47) |
LBAR | 41 (57) | 72 (52) | 112 (47) | 169 (45) | 287 (46) |
AVNI | 41 (52) | 82 (47) | 138 (42) | 185 (39) | 283 (39) |
AVNO | 40 (58) | 69 (52) | 115 (48) | 149 (45) | 234 (45) |
AEMI | 40 (40) | 82 (36) | 133 (33) | 190 (32) | 283 (32) |
BAMD | 48 (57) | 98 (52) | 163 (47) | 224 (45) | 307 (46) |
BAMM | 39 (57) | 74 (52) | 121 (47) | 165 (45) | 229 (46) |
BAMS | 50 (57) | 92 (52) | 129 (47) | 148 (45) | 182 (46) |
NGPI | 38 (52) | 68 (47) | 103 (42) | 121 (40) | 196 (41) |
NGPS | 37 (51) | 58 (46) | 85 (41) | 118 (39) | 173 (40) |
UKMI | 41 (51) | 74 (46) | 131 (41) | 109 (35) | 189 (34) |
UKMO | 37 (29) | 69 (28) | 118 (26) | 130 (22) | 167 (21) |
A98E | 45 (57) | 79 (52) | 124 (47) | 180 (45) | 344 (46) |
A9UK | 43 (27) | 80 (27) | 101 (25) | 137 (24) | 273 (24) |
GUNS | 30 (51) | 55 (46) | 95 (41) | 102 (35) | 158 (34) |
GUNA | 30 (51) | 53 (46) | 94 (41) | 105 (34) | 175 (32) |
OFCL (Official) | 33 (56) | 59 (51) | 96 (46) | 131 (44) | 190 (45) |
NHC Official (1992-2001 mean) | 43 (2199) | 81 (1965) | 115 (1759) | 148 (1580) | 222 (1272) |
*Output from these models was unavailable at time of forecast issuance. |
Table 5: Watch and warning
summary for Hurricane Kyle, 20 September - 12 October
2002.
Date/Time | Action | Location |
30 / 1500 | Tropical Storm Watch Issued | Bermuda |
01 / 2100 | Tropical Storm Watch Discontinued | Bermuda |
10 / 1500 | Tropical Storm Watch Issued | Cocoa Beach, FL to Brunswick, GA |
10 / 2100 | Tropical Storm Watch Extended Northward | Flagler Beach, FL to Edisto Beach SC |
11 / 0300 | Tropical Storm Warning Issued | North of Brunswick, GA to Cape Fear, NC |
11 / 0300 | Tropical Storm Watch Discontinued | From Brunswick, GA
southward |
11 / 0900 | Tropical Storm Warning In Effect | From north of Brunswick, GA northward to Surf City, NC |
11 / 1200 | Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued | Along the Georgia coast |
11 / 1200 | Tropical Storm Warning In Effect | North of Savannah River to Surf City, NC |
11 / 1500 | Tropical Storm Warning Extended Northeastward | North of Savannah River to Currituck Beach Light, NC,
including the Pamlico Sound |
11 / 2100 | Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued | South of Little River Inlet, SC |
11 / 2100 | Tropical Storm Warning In Effect | North of Little River Inlet, SC to Currituck Beach Light, NC,
including the Pamlico Sound |
12 / 0000 | All Tropical Storm Warnings Discontinued | |
Figure 1:
Best track positions for Hurricane Kyle, 20 September - 12 October
2002, with minimum central pressure.
Figure 2:
Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained
surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Kyle, 20 September - 12 October 2002.
Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 75% and
80%
reduction factors for observations from 925 mb and 1500 ft, respectively.
Objective Dvorak estimates are 3-h linear averages.
Figure 3:
Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central
pressure curve for Hurricane Kyle, 20 September - 12 October 2002. Objective
Dvorak estimates are 3-h linear averages.
|