The Statistics of Income (SOI) working papers present new and exciting research on the U.S. Federal tax system and the methods used to produce tax statistics. Papers are presented at professional conferences, such as the Joint Statistical Meeting of the American Statistical Association and the National Tax Association's annual conference on taxation, and are often published in professional journals. Below you will find a selection of papers organized by presentation year. Papers in this series generally do not undergo the extensive review and editorial process accorded official SOI publications. Instead, these working papers are intended to make results of research available to others and to encourage discussion on a variety of topics. As a result, papers may be occasionally revised or updated. Jump to a year: 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 Incorporating Financial Statement Information to Improve Forecasts of Corporate Taxable Income PDF Danielle H. Green, Fordham University; Erin E. Henry, University of Arkansas; Sarah M. Parsons, Sacred Heart University; George A. Plesko, University of Connecticut Decoding Retirement: A Detailed Look at Retirement Distributions Reported on Tax Returns PDFPeter J. Brady and Steven Bass, Investment Company InstituteSupplemental Table 1 XLSX | Supplemental Table 2 XLSXReconciling Form 1040 and Form 1099-R Data PDFPeter J. Brady and Steven Bass, Investment Company Institute Heard it through the Grapevine: The Direct and Network Effects of a Tax Enforcement Field Experiment on Firms PDF William C. Boning, University of Michigan, John Guyton, Internal Revenue Service, Ronald Hodge, Internal Revenue Service, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan 2019 The Effects of EITC Correspondence Audits on Low-Income Earners PDFJohn Guyton, Internal Revenue Service, Kara Leibel, Internal Revenue Service, Day Manoli, UT-Austin, Ankur Patel, Treasury, Mark Payne, Internal Revenue Service, Brenda Schafer, Internal Revenue Service Taxing Hidden Wealth: The Consequences of U.S. Enforcement Initiatives on Evasive Foreign Accounts PDFNiels Johannesen, University of Copenhagen, Patrick Langetieg, Internal Revenue Service, Daniel Reck, London School of Economics, Max Risch, Princeton University, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan Independent Contractors in the U.S.: New Trends from 15 years of Administrative Tax Data PDFKatherine Lim, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Alicia Miller, Internal Revenue Service, Max Risch, University of Michigan, and Eleanor Wilking, New York University Is Gig Work Replacing Traditional Employment? Evidence from Two Decades of Tax Returns PDFBrett Collins, Andrew Garin, Emilie Jackson, Dmitri Koustas, and Mark Payne Income Volatility, Taxation and the Functioning of the U.S. Labor Market PDFThibaut Lamadon, University of Chicago, Magne Mogstad, University of Chicago, Statistics Norway, NBER and IFS, and Bradley Setzler, University of Chicago Taxes and Retirement Decisions Among Women And Secondary Earners PDFRobert McClelland, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, John Iselin, UC Berkeley, Kevin Pierce, IRS Statistics of Income, and Philip Stallworth, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center 2018 Creating Homogeneous Synthetic Individual Tax Files for Distributional Analysis PDFAssociated DataEmmanuel Saez, UC Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Gabriel Zucman, UC Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research 2017 Online Postsecondary Education and the Higher Education Tax Benefits: An Analysis with Implications for Tax Administration PDFCaroline M. Hoxby IRS Behavioral Insights Toolkit PDF multiple authors Using Panel Tax Data to Examine the Transition to Retirement PDFAssociated Tables XLS (.xls format)Peter J. Brady, Steven Bass, Jessica Holland, Kevin Pierce 2016 Statistics of Income Tabulations: High Incomes, Gender, Age, Earnings Split, and Non-filers PDFAssociated Tables XLS (.xls format)Emmanuel Saez Comparing Survey Data and Tax Data: Differences in Reporting across Businesses PDFTami Gurley-Calvez, Donald Bruce, E.J. Reedy, Josh Russell A Tale of Two Datasets: Business Survival in Administrative versus Survey Data PDFTami Gurley-Calvez, Donald Bruce, John A. Deskins, Brian Hill 2015 How Tax Credits for Higher Education Affect College-Going PDFCaroline M. Hoxby, George B. Bulman New Estimates of Intergenerational Mobility Using Administrative Data PDFPablo A. Mitnik, Victoria L. Bryant, Michael Weber, David B. Grusky Donor-Advised Funds: An Overview Using IRS Data PDFPaul Arnsberger 2014 Early Withdrawals from Retirement Accounts During the Great Recession PDFRobert Argento, Victoria L. Bryant, John Sabelhaus Who Benefits from Tax Expenditures on Capital? Evidence on Capital Income and Wealth Concentration PDFAssociated Tables XLS (.xls format)Emmanuel Saez, UC Berkeley, Gabriel Zucman, LSE The Returns to the Federal Tax Credits for Higher Education PDFGeorge B. Bulman, Caroline M. Hoxby Labor Force Participation Elasticities of Women and Secondary Earners within Married Couples PDFRobert McClelland, Congressional Budget Office, Shannon Mok, Congressional Budget Office, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service Older Taxpayers' Response to Taxation of Social Security Benefits PDFLeonard Burman, Syracuse University and the Tax Policy Center, Norma B. Coe, University of Washington and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service, Liu Tian, Syracuse University Over the Top: How Tax Returns Show that the Very Rich Are Different from You and Me PDFJenny Bourne and Lisa Rosenmerkel The Economic Impact of Tax Expenditures: Evidence from Spatial Variation Across the U.S. PDFAssociated Tables - excluding Table VII and Table XX ZIP (.zip format)Appendix Table VII ZIP (.zip format)Appendix Table XXAssociated Figures PDFRaj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and, Patrick Kline and Emmanuel Saez, University of California, Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research Back to the top 2013 The Home Mortgage Interest Deduction and Migratory Insurance Over the Great Recession PDFDanny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley Do Financial Frictions Amplify Fiscal Policy? Evidence from Business Investment Stimulus PDFEric Zwick and James Mahon, Harvard University A New Look at the Income-Wealth Connection for America's Wealthiest Decedents PDFBarry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS A Comparison of Wealth Estimates For America's Wealthiest Decedents Using Tax Data and Data From The Forbes 400 PDFBarry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut PDFDanny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley Do Tax Credits for Parents Affect Child College Enrollment? PDFNathaniel G. Hilger, Brown University Back to the top 2011 New Evidence on the Long-Term Impacts of Tax Credits PDFRaj Chetty and JohnFriedman, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and Jonah Rockoff, Columbia University and the National Bureau of Economic Research Back to the top 2009 Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli Samples PDFHenry, Kimberly; Testa, Valerie; Valliant, Richard The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative Analysis PDFRaub, Brian; Belmonte, Cynthia; Arnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli Samples PDFKimberly Henry and Valerie Testa, Internal Revenue Service and Richard Valliant, University of Michigan The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative Analysis PDFBrian Raub, Cynthia Belmonte, Paul Arnsberger, and Melissa Ludlum, Internal Revenue Service Back to the top 2008 Dissemination Of Statistical Products: The IRS's Journey PDFGangi, Martha Eller Attrition in the Individual Income Tax Return Panel, Tax Years 1999–2005 PDFBryant, Victoria Statistics of Income Sales of Capital Assets Sample Redesign for Tax Year 2007 PDFLiu, Yan; Scali, Jana; Strudler, Michael; Wilson, Janette 90 Years of SOI: A Collection of Historical Articles PDFMultiple Authors Using Audit Data To Estimate Taxpayer Reporting Error in the Statistics of Income Division's Individual Tax Return Sample PDFHenry, Kimberly Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax Data PDFJohnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin Old Tabulations, Old Files, and a Brief History of Individual Tax Return Sampling PDFWeber, Michael; Paris, David; Sailer, Peter Back to the top 2007 Measuring Disclosure Risk and an Examination of the Possibilities of Using Synthetic Data in the Individual Income Tax Return Public Use File PDFVartivarian, Sonya; Czajka, John; Weber, Michael Measuring the Quality of Service to Taxpayers in Volunteer Sites PDFCecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald; Hooker, Rachael SOI Develops Better Survey Questions Through Pretesting PDFMilleville, Diane; Wells, Tara Using the Statistics of Income Division's Sample Data To Reduce Measurement and Processing Error in Small-Area Estimates Produced from Administrative Tax Records PDFHenry, Kimberly; Lahiri, Partha; Fisher, Robin An Empirical Evaluation of Various Direct, Synthetic, and Traditional Composite Small-Area Estimators PDFHenry, Kimberly; Strudler, Michael; Chen, William Evaluating Alternative One-Sided Coverage Intervals for an Extreme Binomial Proportion PDFLiu, Yan; Kott, Phillip Improving the Quality of U.S. Tax Statistics: Recent Innovations in Editing and Imputation Techniques at the Statistics of Income Division of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service PDFScott M. Hollenbeck, Melissa Ludlum, and Barry W. Johnson, Internal Revenue Service Using an Individual Income Tax Panel File To Measure Changes in Marginal Tax Rates: Opportunities PDFDiamond, John; Rector, Ralph; Weber, Michael Back to the top 2006 Social Security Taxes, Social Security Benefits, and Social Security Benefits Taxation, 2003 PDFSailer, Peter; Pierce, Kevin; Lomize, Evgenia Analysis of the Distributions of Income, Taxes, and Payroll Taxes via Cross Section and Panel Data, 1979–2004 PDFStrudler, Michael; Hentz, Lori; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan Performance Measurement within the Statistics of Income Division PDFCecco, Kevin Customer Satisfaction Initiatives at IRS's Statistics of Income: Using Surveys to Improve Customer Service PDFSchwartz, Ruth; Kilss, Beth Tying Website Performance to Mission Achievement in the Federal Government PDFMilleville, Diane The Tax Year 1999–2003 Individual Income Tax Return Panel: A First Look at the Data PDFWeber, Michael Application of an Evolutionary Algorithm to Multivariate Optimal Allocation in Stratified Sample Designs PDFDay, Charles Factors in Estates' Utilization of Special Tax Provisions for Family-Owned Farms and Closely Held Businesses PDFGangi, Martha Eller; Henry, Kimberly; Raub, Brian Corporation Life Cycles: Examining Attrition Trends and Return Characteristics in Statistics of Income Cross-Sectional 1120 Samples PDFMatthew L. Scoffic An Analysis of the Free File Program PDFChu, Michelle; Kovalick, Melissa Comparing Strategies To Estimate a Measure of Heteroscedasticity PDFHenry, Kimberly; Valliant, Richard Creativity and Compromise: Constructing a Panel of Income and Estate Tax Data for Wealthy Individuals PDFJohnson, Barry; Schreiber, Lisa Monitoring Statistics of Income (SOI) Samples PDFKoshansky, Joseph Back to the top 2005 Trends in 401(k) and IRA Contribution Activity, 1999–2002—Results from a Panel of Matched Tax Returns and Information Documents PDFSailer, Peter; Bryant, Victoria Holden, Sarah The 1999 Individual Income Tax Return Edited Panel PDFWeber, Michael; Bryant, Victoria A Cluster Analysis Approach To Describing Tax Data PDFRaub, Brian; Chen, William Origins of the Estate and Personal Wealth Sample Design PDFMcMahon, Paul Corporation Supercritical Cases: How Do Imputed Returns on the Corporate File Compare to the Actual Returns? PDFDavitian, Lucy Internal Revenue Service Area-To-Area Migration Data: Strengths, Limitations, and Current Trends PDFGross, Emily A Comparison of Income Concepts: IRS Statistics of Income, Census Current Population Survey, and BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey PDFHenry, Eric; Day, Charles Measuring Nonsampling Error in the Statistics of Income Individual Tax Return Study PDFScali, Jana; Testa, Valerie; Kahr, Maureen; Strudler, Michael The Impact of the Followup Process on the 2002 Foreign Tax Credit Study Data PDFSingmaster, Rob; Redmiles, Lissa Prelude to Schedule M–3: Schedule M–1 Corporate Book-Tax Difference Data, 1990–2003 PDFBoynton, Charles; DeFilippes, Portia; Legel, Ellen An Essay on the Effects of Taxation on the Corporate Financial Policy PDFContos, George An Analysis of Business Organizational Structure and Activity from Tax Data PDFPetska, Tom; Parisi, Michael; Luttrell, Kelly; Davitian, Lucy; Scoffic, Matt Geographic Variation in Schedule H Filing Rates: Why Should Location Influence the Decision To Report Nanny Taxes? PDFBloomquist, Kim; An, Zhiyong Current Research in the Nonprofit Sector PDFArnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa; Riley, Margaret Back to the top 2004 Use of Individual Retirement Arrangements to Save for Retirement—Results From a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information Documents for Tax Year 2001 PDFSailer, Peter; Holden, Sarah Further Analysis of the Distribution of Income and Taxes, 1979–2003 PDFStrudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan The Statistics of Income 1979–2002 Continuous Work History Sample Individual Income Tax Return Panel PDFWeber, Michael Assessing Industry Codes on the IRS Business Master File PDFMcMahon, Paul Customer Satisfaction Initiatives within the Statistics of Income Division of the Internal Revenue Service PDFCecco, Kevin The Evolution of IRS Telephone Quality Measures PDFRosage, Laura Some New Tables for Upper Probability Points of the Largest Root of a Determinantal Equation PDFChen, William Editor Judgment Effect: Modeling a Key Component of Nonsampling Error in Administrative Data PDFHenry, Kimberly; Ahmed, Yahia; Legel, Ellen The Effect of Content Errors on Bias and Nonsampling Variance in Estimates Derived From Samples PDFJohnson, Barry; Jacobson,Darien B. Data Interpretation across Sources: A Study of Form 990–PF Information Collected from Multiple Databases PDFLudlum, Melissa Recent Research on Small Business Compliance Burden PDFGuyton, John; Kindlon, Audrey; Zhou, Jian The Mismeasure of Man's Well-Being: Refining Realized Income Measures with Wealth, Portfolio, and Mortality Information PDFJohnson, Barry; Wahl, Jenny Tax Evasion and Entrepreneurship: The Effect of Income Reporting Policies on Evasion. An Experimental Approach PDFAlm, James; Deskins, John; McKee, Michael Audit Information Dissemination, Taxpayer Communication and Tax Compliance: An Experimental Investigation of Indirect Audit Effects PDFAlm, James; Jackson, Betty; McKee, Michael Multi-Agent Based Simulation of the Deterrent Effects of Taxpayer Audits PDFBloomquist, Kim Developing Adoptable Disclosure Protection Techniques: Lessons Learned From a U.S. Experience PDFGreenia, Nicholas Consider the Source: Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax Data PDFJohnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin Back to the top 2003 The Effects of Tax Reform on the Structure of U.S. Business PDFLegel, Ellen; Bennett, Kelly; Parisi, Michael Accumulation and Distributions of Retirement Assets, 1996–2000—Results from a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information Returns PDFSailer, Peter; Gurka, Kurt; Holden, Sarah An Analysis of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes, 1979–2001 PDFStrudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan IRS Seeks to Develop New Web-Based Measurement Indicators for IRS.gov PDFDixon, Diane Statistical Information Services at IRS: Improving Dissemination of Data and Satisfying the Customer PDFKilss, Beth; Jordan, David Recent Efforts to Maximize Benefits from the Statistics of Income Advisory Panel PDFPetska, Tom; Kilss, Beth Regulatory Exemptions and Item Nonresponse PDFMcMahon, Paul Comparing Scoring Systems From Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis Using Random Samples PDFWong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin Estimating the Compliance Cost of the U.S. Individual Income Tax PDFToder, Eric J.; Guyton, John; O'Hare, John; Stavrianos, Michael Tax Evasion, Income Inequality and Opportunity Costs of Compliance PDFBloomquist, Kim IRS's Comprehensive Approach to Compliance Measurement PDFBrown, Robert; Mazur, Mark Back to the top 2002 Salaries and Wages and Deferred Income, 1989–1999 PDFSailer, Peter; Yau, Ellen; Gurka, Kurt; Weber, Michael Proxies in Administrative Records Surveys PDFMcMahon, Paul Assessing Disclosure Protection for a SOI Public Use File PDFWinglee, Marianne; Valliant, Richard; Clark, Jay; Lim, Yunhee; Weber, Michael; Strudler, Michael Electronic Dissemination of Internal Revenue Service Locality Data PDFGross, Emily; Kilss, Beth Analysis of the 1998 Gift Tax Panel Study PDFEller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara Evaluating the Effect of Sample Size Changes on Scoring System Performance Using Bootstraps and Random Samples PDFWong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin Using Auxiliary Information to Adjust for Non-Response in Weighting a Linked Sample of Administrative Records PDFJohnson, Barry: McMahon, Paul Developing an Econometric Model for Measuring Tax Noncompliance Using Operational Audit Data PDFErard, Brian; Ho, Chih-Chin Some New Tables of the Largest Root of a Matrix in Multivariate Analysis: A Computer Approach from 2 to 6 PDFChen, William Are Taxpayers Increasing the Buildup of Retirement Assets? Preliminary Results from a Matched File of Tax Year 1999 Tax Returns and Information Returns PDFSailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Gurka, Kurt New Estimates of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes PDFStrudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan How the Quality of Responses the IRS Provides to Taxpayer Inquiries is Measured PDFCecco, Kevin; Hoopengardner, Rachael The Impact of the IRS on Voluntary Tax Compliance: Preliminary Empirical Results PDFPlumley, Alan Back to the top 2001 Taxing Charity: Linking Income Tax Returns to Samples of Nonexempt Charitable and Charitable Remainder PDFBelvedere, Melissa; Mikow, Jacob; Whitten, Melissa The 1998 Gift Tax Panel Study: Using The IRS Returns Transaction File as a Sample Frame PDFEller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara Sample Design Revisions in the Wake of NAICS and Regulatory Changes PDFMcMahon, Paul Statistical Information from Administrative Records in the Federal Tax System PDFPetska, Tom Back to the top 2000 Exporting a Statistical System: Towards Establishing a Tax Statistics Function in South Africa PDFPetska, Tom Beyond Andrew Carnegie: Using a Linked Sample of Federal Income and Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Bequests on Beneficiary Behavior PDFMikow, Jacob; Berkowitz, Darien Statistical Consulting Within the Internal Revenue Service PDFCecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald Attrition in a Panel of Individual Income Tax Returns, 1992–1997 PDFSailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Wong, William Back to the top 1999 The Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes: A New Look at an Old Issue PDFPetska, Tom; Strudler, Mike Personal Wealth, 1995Johnson, Barry Further Examination of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes Using a Consistent and Comprehensive Measure of Income PDFPetska, Tom; Strudler, Mike; Petska, Ryan Customer Service Satisfaction Survey: Cognitive and Prototype Test PDFCecco, Kevin; Young, Anthony On Computing Gaussian Curvature of Some Well Known Distributions PDFChen, William The Feasiblity of State Corporate Data PDFFrancis, Brian Using a Sample of Federal Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Audit Revaluation on Pre-Audit Estimates PDFEller, Martha Britton; Johnson, Barry Occupation and Industry Data from Tax Year 1993 Individual Tax Returns PDFSailer, Peter; Nuriddin, Terry Back to the top 1998 Income, Tax, and Tax Progressivity: An Examination of Recent Trends in the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes PDFPetska, Tom; Strudler, Mike Updating Techniques for Estimating Wealth from Federal Estate Tax Returns PDFJohnson, Barry The IRS Population Count: An Update PDFSailer, Peter; Weber, Michael Back to the top 1997 Taxes and Business Organizational Choice: Deja Vu All Over Again? PDFPetska, Tom Partnerships in Data Sharing: The Internal Revenue Service and the Bureau of Economic Analysis PDFPetska, Tom Federal Taxation of Inheritance and Wealth Transfers PDFJohnson, Barry; Eller, Martha Britton
