FEMA Region II Hazard Mitigation Plan Toolkit: Risk Assessment

Risk

Risk assessment
guidance

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How-To Guide #2: Understanding Your Risks: identifying hazards and estimating losses (FEMA 386-2)
www.fema.gov/plan/mitplanning/planning_resources.shtm

All hazards:
hazard id, profiling hazards

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Identifying and profiling hazards plan review checklist and explanation

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Under development DRAFT summary evaluation table of national and state risk assessment information for NJ. Includes minimum PDM-c rankings for probability ("frequency") and vulnerability ("severity") of hazards by county. See hyperlinks under "Notes" column for documentation supporting the rankings.

All hazards:
past occurrences,
vulnerability - impact

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Past FEMA disaster declarations in NJ, including disaster number, hazard type, date, and declared counties when information is available (adapted from www.fema.gov 11/05) Note that flood insurance studies, news clippings and other historical sources should be used to describe disasters in more detail.

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Past FEMA disaster declarations in NY, including disaster number, hazard type, date, and declared counties. Worksheet #1: all counties. Worksheets #2, 3, and 4: print friendly versions for counties A-Monr, Mont-U, and W-Z.  (Adapted from FEMA web pages and NYS mitigation plan) Note that flood insurance studies, newsclippings and other historical sources should be used to describe disasters in more detail.

Earthquakes:
hazard id,
location,
extent,
probability of future events 

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New York earthquake hazard map: shows USGS peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of being exceeded over 50 years. Earthquakes should be identified as a hazard if pga>2 (From NYS Mitigation Plan, Fig. 3-30, p. 3-113). Includes map of NEHRP soil classification which indicates reduction or amplification of ground motion due to soils.

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New Jersey earthquake hazard map: shows USGS peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of being exceeded over 50 years. Earthquakes should be identified as a hazard if pga>2. Also includes brief description of HAZUS vulnerability studies.

Earthquakes:
past occurrences

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Map and table of past significant earthquakes in NY and northern NJ (from NYS Plan, p. 3-114 and 116.) 

Earthquakes:
vulnerability overview and impact,
potential $ loss

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New York Consortium for Earthquake Mitigation (NYCEM) HAZUS MH loss estimation studies for earthquakes and earthquake-induced landslides and sediment liquefaction have been conducted for the greater NYC area (including counties in New York and New Jersey). 50-page summary report for this study can be accessed at NYCEM's website (nycem.org/default.asp) 

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HAZUS study has annualized earthquake loss estimation table in New York: dollar estimates by county. (Adapted from NYS Mitigation Plan, Table 3-52, p. 3-127.) 

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NJ Geological Survey HAZUS earthquake loss estimation study for northern NJ. As of December 2005, this website has posted reports for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic, and Union counties.
www.state.nj.us/dep/njgs/enviroed/hazus.htm

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HAZUS NYCEM study explained in  NJ Geological Survey's Information Circular, Predicting Earthquake Damage in New Jersey. 2-page explanation for this study with sample data from the Orange Quadrangle in NJ can be accessed through the Plan Toolkit or www.state.nj.us/dep/njgs/enviroed/infocirc/eqdamage.pdf

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HAZUS vulnerability studies in New Jersey - brief description. Also includes NJ earthquake hazard map

Floods:
hazard id,
location,
extent,
probability of future events 

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Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs): at  FEMA Flood Map Store and Map Service Center. See tutorial for creating and printing your own "Firmette" of desired section of map with north area, scale, panel #. Free.
msc.fema.gov/

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Map Mod projected availability table for Flood Insurance Studies maps and reports - NJ

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Effective floodplain mapping for Hudson County, NJ (digital version) 

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Effective floodplain mapping for Orange County, NY(digital version)

Floods:
location,
extent,
past occurrences,
probability of future events 

X

Flood Insurance Study (FIS) web link with instructions to access and explanation for obtaining FIS flood profiling information  - under development

Floods:
past occurrences

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USGS Water Resources web link and stream-gage information water.usgs.gov/

Floods:
past occurrences,
vulnerability

X

NY flood vulnerability by county: 2004 NFIP data (policies, claims, repetitive loss properties, etc) and analysis in NYS Plan

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NY flood potential loss estimates by county: 2004 data and analysis in NYS Plan

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NFIP data - sample:
DRAFT 2003 spreadsheet for NFIP communities in Suffolk Co

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GIS map of NFIP data - sample:
DRAFT 2003 map of #  Repetitive Loss properties by community in Suffolk Co 

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NFIP data: 2005 information in NJ by municipality - draft

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NFIP data: 2005 information in NY by municipality

Floods:
location,
past occurrences

TBD

Map and description of flood-prone areas.

Coastal Flooding:
hazard id

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Coastal zone area map for NY state showing czm boundary line in blue. Czm areas located in or along Long Island, NYC, Hudson River, Great Lakes. 

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Coastal zone area map for Orange County, NY. Includes areas along Hudson River

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Coastal Barrier Resources System areas (and Otherwise Protected Areas) for NY with listings under county, community, FIRM Panel # formerly at www.fema.gov/nfip/cny.shtm. As of 5/11/06, some information at www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/fhm/fmc_cbrs.shtm.  For mapped locations, see FIRMs at FEMA's Flood Map Store.

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Coastal Barrier Resources System areas (and Otherwise Protected Areas) for NJ with listings under county, community, FIRM Panel # formerly at www.fema.gov/nfip/cnj.shtm. As of 5/11/06, some information at www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/fhm/fmc_cbrs.shtm.  For mapped locations, see FIRMs at FEMA's Flood Map Store.

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Note on NJ protected coastal areas

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Map of inland boundary of areas regulated under NJ's Coastal Areas Facility Resources Act.

Coastal Flooding
(storm surge):
probability of future events,
vulnerability

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New Jersey Hurricane Evacuation Study (HES) draft county maps of estimated Category 1-4 hurricane inundation areas using the SLOSH model. Includes a vulnerability table showing the number of housing units within inundation zones by municipality. See www.nap.usace.army.mil/HES/nj/index.html

Dam Failure:
location

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National Inventory of Dams (NID) information, including county, dam name, NID ID #, river, city, owner name, dam height and storage, drainage area.
crunch.tec.army.mil/nid/webpages/nid.cfm
See "USFWS's ECOS" for mapping of NID and FERC dams at ecos.fws.gov/

Hurricane flooding and winds:
probability of future events

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Hurricane/tropical storm probability of occurrence (www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqG.html#G12) 

Hurricane flooding and winds:
past occurrences

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Map of historic hurricane tracks through NY 1888 - 1989 (NY State Plan, Fig. 3-17)

Landslides:
past occurrences,
probability of future events

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Landslide susceptibility and incidence map: NJ
(NJ State plan, Fig. 4-1, p. 184)

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Landslide susceptibility and incidence maps: NY
(Excerpts from NY State plan, pp. 3-128ff)

Meteorlogical Hazards
(extreme heat/cold, snowstorm)
past occurrences,
probability of future events

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NJ State Climatologist Internet link provides extreme long-term averages for daily temperatures, precipitation totals, and snowfall totals at 40 stations in New Jersey (climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/).

Severe Winter Storm:
past occurrences

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NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) storm event information. Note this data should be summarized and analyzed, not just listed.
www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms

Severe Winter Storm
(snowstorm):
past occurrences
location,
extent,
probability of future events 

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Average annual snowfall map - NY
From NYS Mitigation Plan, Fig. 3-19, p. 3-71

Subsidence:
hazard id,
location,
probability of future events,
past occurrences

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NJ map of (a) areas prone to sinkhole development and (b) sites of known sinkholes (from NJ State plan, Fig. 5-4, p. 203)

Tornadoes & Windstorms:
hazard id,
location,
extent,
probability of future events,
past occurrences

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Wind zones and tornado tracks maps (NY State Plan, Fig. 3-16, p.3-55). 

Wildfires:
hazard id,
location,
extent,
probability of future events,
past occurrence

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NJ wildfire risk assessment by county, including (a) a fire risk map that addresses location and probability; (b) tabulations of wildfire incidents and acres burned per year, as well as a brief description of significant wildfires that address past occurrences  (Excerpt from NJ State Plan, Appendix B, pages 330-340).

Vulnerability:
overview and impact

TBD

Vulnerability summary table sample

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Population density map and table samples: Westchester County, NY

Vulnerability:
existing structures

TBD

Critical facility map and table samples

TBD

Structures by construction type (wood, etc) - sample

Land use

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Land-use map - sample: Allegany County, NY 

Earthquakes,
Riverine Floods,
and Hurricanes:
hazard profiling,
vulnerability overview and impact,
potential $ loss

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HAZUS Multi-Hazards (MH): If a Geographic Information System (GIS) is available, communities are encouraged to use this free FEMA computer software that models earthquakes, hurricanes winds, and riverine flooding. Developed by relevant experts and extensively documented, it contains information on (a) the probability of future events, (b) past occurrences, (c) baseline inventory data (such as building type and number, infrastructure, and critical facilities), and (d) potential annualized dollar loss estimations. Information developed from national data sets of agencies (US Geological Survey, NOAA's National Weather Service, US Census, etc).  Additional, more detailed, location-specific data (such as developed by local communities or the State) can be incorporated into its database. www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/