000
FXUS64 KLUB 090908
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
408 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ZONAL UL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY MINOR
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA. ONSET OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD DESK IS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE CWFA
WHILE SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WITH NERLY CAA AT THE SURFACE AND SRLY FETCH ALOFT...AM
STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A SLGT CHC OF
LGT DRIZZLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE LIFT APPEARS
MAXIMIZED. THAT SAID...PRECIP MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WAS
INDICATED IN YESTERDAY/S PACKAGE. COLD AIR DAMMING INDUCED BY ERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE SACRAMENTO/SANDIA RANGE SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A
THICKER CLOUD DECK AS MOISTENED 700MB LAYER IS SWEPT BACK ACROSS OUR
REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...SFC HIGH
PASSES TO OUR NE AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE AIDS IN BL DECOUPLING IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING LGT WINDS NEAR
SUNRISE. 26
&&
.LONG TERM...
A COOL/MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR ZONAL UA FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST SUNDAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY...
AS A BROAD AREA OF COOL SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. SAID SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS TO BE RE-ENFORCED IN A
BACKDOOR FASHION SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF MODEST NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY. MODELS HINT THAT SOME
DEGREE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL OCCUR ATOP THE RENEWED COLD
DOME/UPSLOPE LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MINOR WAVE PROPAGATING
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW. AS SUCH...WRF-NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A MODEST
INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY VICINITY THE SOUTHERN ZONES...SO
A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER MAY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER
IN HANDLING WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MAGNITUDE OF NEAR-SURFACE
RIDGING. FORECAST PROFILES AND MEAGER LIFT REMAIN MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED FOG/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THAN
FOR CONVECTION. THUS THIS WILL BE THE DOMINANT WORDING IN FORECAST/
GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN MODELS FINALLY AGREE THAT
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRANSLATE
THE BROAD CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE RIDGE EASTWARD AND TO ESTABLISH LEE
TROUGHING AND WARMING CONDITIONS LOCALLY.
A DRYLINE MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER WEST TEXAS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS APPEAR TO PICK UP ON YET ANOTHER MINOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...
BUT THE PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURE IS LOW ATTM. PROGS DO NOT
GENERATE CONVECTIVE QPF AND HINT AT AN EML...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT GRIDDED POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED
TO MONITORED FOR STORM POTENTIAL EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FROPA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN WARRANTED THEN...ESPECIALLY AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN BY EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 44 70 50 69 / 10 10 10 20 20
TULIA 60 43 64 49 64 / 10 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 60 45 65 51 65 / 10 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 48 70 54 72 / 20 10 10 30 20
LUBBOCK 63 49 68 54 69 / 10 10 10 30 20
DENVER CITY 69 50 77 55 74 / 20 10 10 30 20
BROWNFIELD 65 50 73 55 73 / 20 10 10 30 20
CHILDRESS 65 47 63 54 67 / 20 10 10 30 20
SPUR 64 50 67 54 67 / 20 10 10 30 20
ASPERMONT 65 51 68 56 70 / 20 10 10 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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