![[logo] US EPA](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20081029002614im_/http://www.epa.gov/epafiles/images/logo_epaseal.gif){kind=logo}
Air Quality Forecasts Fully Operational In Northeast
Research Programs
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have partnered together to produce fully operational ground-level ozone forecast guidance for the northeastern U.S. The Air Quality Forecast (AQF) modeling guidance is a new tool available to state and local air quality forecasters and private sector partners who distribute air quality alerts and provide health advisories to the public, including those who are especially sensitive to ozone. The AQF model system uses detailed science reflecting the dynamics and chemistry of the atmosphere to predict or forecast hour-by-hour ozone levels through midnight of the following day with 12 km horizontal grid spacing. The AQF ozone forecast represents the first step toward an improved national AQF capability that will continue to grow with coverage expanding to the entire nation within five years.
The AQF capability is a quantum leap improvement in ozone forecasting over statistical models for producing air quality information because it applies detailed science models of the chemical and meteorological processes occurring in the atmosphere. This allows the modeling system to provide forecasts not only for the urban areas where many ozone measurements are made, but also in rural and outlying areas where such data are sparse.
Air Quality Forecasting
Air Quality Forecasting DatabaseModel Development
National Weather Service Air Quality Forecasting
Real time NWS AQF Guidance Product
Real time AQF products at NCEP
Air Quality Forecasts Fully Operational In Northeast
The principal components of the system are NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Eta meteorological forecast model and EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The Eta model is run every six hours over a North American domain, producing hourly gridded forecast data fields of temperature, moisture, winds, rainfall, and other meteorological variables. These model runs are part of the normal daily NWS weather forecasting activities. Meteorological data are then extracted for the northeast U.S. and are used to help calculate source emissions for primary pollutants and to provide the necessary weather-related information for the CMAQ model. The CMAQ model, containing atmospheric chemistry, transport, and diffusion processes, utilizes the hourly meteorological and emissions data to produce hourly gridded forecast data fields of ozone and other trace gas pollutants. The CMAQ model is run twice daily, driven by the 8 a.m. and 2 a.m. (EDT). North American Eta weather forecast model runs, to produce next-day and updated current-day ozone forecasts, respectively, for the northeast U.S.
As a result of this new capability, people can view ozone forecasts on color-coded maps depicting the actual ozone concentration levels for specific urban or rural settings in hourly intervals throughout the day. For many communities, this is the first time that air quality predictions are available. Through partnerships with state and local air quality agencies, EPA collects air quality observations and source emissions and provides these data to the NWS. These data, along with NWS' weather observations and prediction models, combine to represent the complex interplay between chemical and meteorological processes occurring in interactions in the atmosphere needed for accurate and detailed air quality prediction.
This guidance, available through NWS information servers, is useful to state and local air quality forecasters for providing health advisories to the public. The AQF system differs from the statistical (local) models used to forecast air quality in some select urban areas. EPA's health-related Air Quality Index (AQI), depicted in local and national newspapers and used by broadcast weather forecasters, can be derived from the local models for city-specific coverage, or nationally using the AQF modeling system and guidance. For more information on the Air Quality Index, visit the Web at http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqi.html.
The AQF modeling system, which became fully operational in September 2004, is a dramatic improvement in forecast capabilities because it provides forecasts of the start, severity and duration of poor air quality conditions, specifically for ozone, over regional to continental scales with a consistent methodology. Beginning with the next ozone forecasting season, May 2005, the system can be used to help people at risk from poor air quality by predicting conditions across metropolitan and rural areas throughout the northeast U.S. Over the next decade, the capacity will be extended to include fine particulates and visibility forecasts, then cover multiple days (day two and beyond) and, eventually, additional pollutants.
EPA and NOAA (and their predecessor agencies) have a fifty-year history of using scientific research on air pollution meteorology and air quality modeling to address real-world problems. In recognition of their contributions to the resolution of air pollution problems, the American Meteorological Society is sponsoring a two-day Golden Jubilee Symposium on Air Quality Modeling and Its Applications during September 20-21, 2005, in Research Triangle Park, NC.
Contributed by Kenneth Schere, NOAA Meteorologist, on assignment to EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC.