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Air Quality Forecasting Database
Research Programs
A data-base containing air quality forecasts from the Eta-CMAQ modeling system is under development to provide long-term air quality data. Data from the summer 2004 Eta-CMAQ model forecast runs were used to begin populating the database. The data base consists of all relevant data required to construct input data files for CMAQ as well as CMAQ model output from the NOAA NWS forecast runs starting June 1, 2004 . Data from subsequent forecast seasons will be added to the database as they become available. The long-term archive of air quality forecast data to be produced within this task will be an invaluable resource to the States, RPO’s, and others involved in the SIP process. It will provide data to supplement observations for episode selection, and model application and evaluation on a regional/local basis. In addition it will provide data for air quality climatology research and linking health and epidemiological data to air quality data. Other potential applications could include:
- The database may be used to assess the spatial and temporal variability of NO x- and VOC-limited areas of the U.S. to assist in understanding what emissions control strategies will most effectively lower ozone concentrations over a wide range of ambient conditions that exists for a specific area. The database will also be useful in assessing signals of emissions change on air quality, as regional SO x and NO x controls from electric utilities take effect.
- As part of the SIP process, States must model for future attainment strategies of areas within their jurisdiction that are not in current compliance with ozone and PM2.5 national standards. This modeling requires that chemical initial and boundary conditions be specified for a base case model simulation, and appropriate meteorological and emissions data be provided for the modeled attainment demonstrations. Obtaining these data are often the most resource-intensive part of a SIP modeling exercise. With the existence of the national air quality forecast database at EPA, States and others may now access many of these required modeling data from this national resource, including initial/boundary conditions, meteorological, and emissions data. This will facilitate their running finer scale modeling simulations on their particular areas in non-attainment.
- A potential use of the database is to assist in the generation of ensemble forecasts for selected regions. State agencies and local forecasters could run their own individual forecast applications over their region of interest with different realizations of the emissions (e.g., specialized local inventories) and/or meteorological data (e.g., derived from other models), driven by the larger scale features derived from the national AQF system. These alternate forecasts can then be combined to provide an ensemble forecast with potentially higher fidelity.
- Another example of analysis of long-term forecast data comes with the fusion of data in the forecast archive with an observational database from routine ozone and PM 2.5 air quality monitoring, and relating this combined database with health and epidemiological data for studies on the linkage of air quality and exposure/health impacts. Initial discussions have been held with the NIH/ Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on collaborations in using these air quality data in their analyses.
Air Quality Forecasting
Air Quality Forecasting DatabaseModel Development
National Weather Service Air Quality Forecasting
Real time NWS AQF Guidance Product
Real time AQF products at NCEP
Air Quality Forecasts Fully Operational In Northeast