Text Only Version
TEXT ONLY VERSION NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERReturn to National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Awareness  

Homepage
Hurricane Basics

Hurricane History
Storm Surge
Marine Safety
High Winds
Tornadoes
Inland Floods
Forecast Process
Be Prepared
Take Action
Downloads
Useful Links En Espanol

 

 

Visit NWS.gov
Visit NWS

Visit NOAA.gov
Visit NOAA

Visit FEMA.gov
Visit FEMA

 

Questions, Comments? Contact Us
Contact Us

Forecast Process

The Tropical Prediction Center, the NHC and the Miami WFO
The Tropical Prediction Center,
the NHC, and the Miami WFO, 1999

Part of the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) is to save lives and protect property by issuing watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather conditions in the tropics. This section provides information about the roles of those responsible for providing hurricane information to emergency managers and decision makers.

The TPC is comprised of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Technical Support Branch (TSB). During hurricane season, the latter two provide support to the NHC.

The local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in hurricane-prone areas are also important participants in the forecast process.

The NHC and your local WFO have various roles in the forecast process that are closely coordinated. Their activities are summarized below.

  • OBSERVATION
    Observations including satellites, buoys, reconnaissance aircraft, and radar are the basis for all forecast and warning products issued by the NHC. Quality, quantity, and timeliness of remote sensing observations are critical for accurate and timely forecasts and warnings. Learn More

  • ANALYSIS
    The various observations are checked for quality, analyzed, and put into a suite of computer models. Learn More

  • MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTERPRETATION
    The computer models take in the observations and perform millions of calculations to generate predictions of hurricane behavior and the general conditions of the atmosphere in which the hurricane is embedded. The model results are packaged as guidance for the appropriate national centers and local offices and for evaluation and use in the NWS's forecast and warning process. Learn More

  • COORDINATION WITHIN THE NWS
    Forecasts and warnings are coordinated between the national centers and local forecast offices to provide consistency, which is critical during severe weather episodes. Learn More

  • PRODUCT GENERATION
    Once the coordination and collaboration process reaches group consensus, the issuing offices generate forecast and warning products for release to the public. Learn More

  • Product Dissemination
    Timely and reliable dissemination of forecasts and warnings is critical to the protection of life and property. The types of products issued are described on the Forecast Products page. Learn More

  • Coordination with Customers
    The NHC and the local NWS forecast office work with your community leaders to determine whether the forecast and warning products issued were useful and how they can provide you even better service in the future.
    Learn More


RELATED INFORMATION
• HURRICANE FORECAST PRODUCTS TEXTGRAPHICAL
• 
COORDINATION PROCESS
• 
OBSERVATIONS & DATA
• 
FORECAST ERRORS
• 
WATCHES & WARNINGS

RELATED WEBSITES
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
• NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
• STORM PREDICTION CENTER


ADDITIONAL SAFETY INFORMATION

WATCH vs. WARNING - KNOW THE DIFFERENCE

  • A HURRICANE WATCH issued for your part of the coast indicates the possibility that you could experience hurricane conditions within 36 hours.
    This watch should trigger your family's disaster plan, and protective measures should be initiated, especially those actions that require extra time such as securing a boat, leaving a barrier island, etc.
  • A HURRICANE WARNING issued for your part of the coast indicates that sustained winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 24 hours or less.
    Once this warning has been issued, your family should be in the process of completing protective actions and deciding the safest location to be during the storm.

     

Printer Friendly Version

6 Hour
Forecast Cycle
When a storm threatens the following occurs
0:00 A new hurricane forecast cycle begins.
0:45 Receive the location of the center of the hurricane.
1:00 Initialize or start the hurricane models with the storm's location and intensity
1:20

Receive model guidance and prepare a new hurricane forecast.

2:00 Coordinate with National Weather Service and Dept. of Defense.
3:00

Issue the full hurricane advisory package.

ISSUANCE TIME:
5am EDT (4 CDT)
11am EDT (10 CDT)
5pm EDT (4 CDT)
11pm EDT (10 CDT)
3:15 Participate in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) conference call with the affected states.
6:00

A new hurricane forecast cycle begins.

** When a Watch or a Warning is issued, intermediate advisories are initiated.
MORE INFO ON FORECAST PRODUCTS

 

 Visit these websites to learn more