July 2016 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

Press Release Number:

BTS 46-16

Date:

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Media Contact:

Dave Smallen, 202-366-5568

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 1.6 percent in July from June, rising for the fourth consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). The July 2016 index level (124.6) was 31.6 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

Freight Transportation Services Index, July 2011 - July 2016

Table Version | Excel

Freight Transportation Services Index, July 2011 - July 2016

The level of freight shipments in July measured by the Freight TSI (124.6) reached its all-time high (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The June index was revised to 122.6 from 122.3. Monthly numbers for January through May were revised up slightly.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Analysis: The July Freight TSI increase of 1.6 percent from June was due to growth in trucking and rail carloads, while all other modes declined (data on individual modes is seasonally adjusted by BTS). The July increase was driven by growth in the mining (including oil and gas well drilling and servicing), utility and manufacturing sectors of the economy. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index rose 0.7 percent in June. Housing starts were 2.1 percent above the June level, Personal Income was 0.4 percent above the June level, and employment grew by 255,000 jobs.

Trend: The 1.6 percent Freight TSI rise in July from June was the fourth consecutive monthly increase, reaching an all-time high of 124.6. The combined growth of 4.0 percent over the four months from March to July was the first time the TSI rose for four months in succession since December 2014. The 4.0 percent rise was the largest increase over a four-month period since February 2013. The new high exceeded the previous high (123.6) in December 2014 by 0.8 percent. The index has risen 31.6 percent since the low of 94.7 in April 2009. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in July 2016 (124.6) were 31.6 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The July 2016 level reached its all-time high (Table 1A).

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 2.7 percent in July compared to the end of 2015 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 13.4 percent in the five years from July 2011 and are up 11.3 percent in the 10 years from July 2006 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: July 2016 freight shipments were up 1.7 percent from July 2015 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the August index is scheduled for Oct.13.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.2 percent in July from its June level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI July 2016 level of 125.6 was 1.3 percent below the July 2015 level (Table 7). The index is up 8.9 percent in five years and up 13.5 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 1.1 percent in July from its June level (Table 8). The combined TSI July 2016 level of 125.0 was 0.7 percent above the July 2015 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 12.0 percent in five years and up 11.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.

For a webinar on the TSI, see Past Webinars. For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.