2011 Performance Metrics
2011 Goal: Develop a coupled climate model with fully interactive carbon and sulfur cycles, as well as dynamic vegetation to enable simulations of aerosol effects, carbon chemistry, and carbon sequestration by the land surface and oceans and the interactions between the carbon cycle and climate. In fiscal year 2009: Earth system model to be used in generating scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and provide integrated aerosol sub-model that includes direct and indirect forcing.
Overall Performance Measures
This metric is an activity of the climate modeling within BER CESD. The goal of the climate modeling program is the development of climate models that include natural and human systems, which will project climate change at decade to century time scales and global to local spatial scales, estimate climate extremes and quantify uncertainties.
The overall performance measure includes specific metrics for reporting progress each quarter. This reporting process includes support documentation (usually a report or data file) appropriate for the metric.
1st Quarter Metric—Completed
Objective – Develop a future representative concentration pathway for use in IPCC 5th Assessment earth system model simulations.
Product Definition/Description – Development of a scenario of atmospheric concentrations of radiatively important species and land-use changes in which greenhouse gas stabilizes at 4.5 Wm-2 in year 2100 for use in global model simulations.
Product Documentation/Deliverables – The first quarter milestone was met and reported in Future RCP IA Metric (PDF). The representative pathway of future forcing pathways has been developed.
2nd Quarter Metric—Completed
Objective – Demonstrate new aerosol measurement verification testbed for present-day global aerosol simulations.
Product Definition/Description – Use the Aerosol Measurement Testbed Framework to explore the behavior of the Community Climate Model Version 5 (CAM5) suite of advanced physical aerosol indirect effect parameterizations.
Product Documentation/Deliverables – The second quarter milestone was met and reported in Demonstration of New Aerosol Measurement Verification Testbed for Present-Day Global Aerosol Simulations (PDF), with most of the global model parameterization suite implemented in the Aerosol Measurement Testbed Framework and demonstration of early results with this suite of parameterizations.
3rd Quarter Metric—Completed
Objective – Estimate Earth System Model aerosol direct and indirect effects for IPCC AR5 historical 20th century transient simulations.
Product Definition/Description – The impact of anthropogenic aerosol on the energy balance of the Earth is estimated by the Community Earth System Model for historical emissions. The impact is partitioned into contributions from direct scattering and absorption of solar radiation, and indirect effects due to changes in clouds.
Product Documentation/Deliverables – The third quarter milestone was met and reported in Estimate of Historical Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects (PDF), including representation of aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate over the 20th century from the Community Earth System Model IPCC AR5 experiments.
4th Quarter Metric—Completed
Objective – Estimate Earth System Model aerosol direct and indirect effects for IPCC AR5 future scenario simulations.
Product Definition/Description – The impact of anthropogenic aerosol on the energy balance of the Earth is estimated by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for future emissions. The impact is partitioned into contributions from direct scattering and absorption of solar radiation, and indirect effects due to changes in clouds.
Product Documentation/Deliverables – The fourth quarter milestone was met and reported in Future Direct and Indirect Effects (PDF), including representation of aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate for year 2100 from the Community Earth System Model IPCC AR5 experiments.