Climate Change Is Real

Living in one spot on the planet, we find it difficult to detect or "believe in" global climate change. Weather is just so chaotic—one winter seems warm, another snowy, spring brings rain but sometimes drought. However, scientists examining the average weather conditions over a long period of time (i.e. climate) across the entire planet see a warming pattern emerging. During the last 50 years, it is likely that global temperatures were higher than at anytime during the last 1,300 years. Scientists compare that temperature data with sea levels, the size and number of glaciers, the length of fire seasons and the condition of arctic permafrost and conclude that climate change is here today. Read more about some of the common climate change myths.

Though natural evolution and change are an integral part of our national parks, climate change will fundamentally transform the natural and cultural landscapes of national parks in the not-too-distant future. And it will affect your experience in a national park. What will this transformation look like? We'll see less permafrost, rising sea levels and shrinking packs of sea ice. We'll see longer fire seasons, changes in the places different plants and animals can survive. We'll see more frequents pests and disease.

Climate Science

Several key studies, including those represented by the U.S. Global Change Research Program's report Global Climate Change Impacts to the United States and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report conclude that the observed changes in climate are due primarily to human-caused emission of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂). These "greenhouse gases" have been on the rise since the 19th century, and their effect on climate will persist for many more decades. Levels of carbon dioxide and methane (another greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere are higher now than in the last 650,000 years. As humans continue burning more and more fossil fuels, scientists believe the impacts of global warming will accelerate in the future.

Climate Change and National Parks

While scientists have a high certainty in the global trend, the future of a specific regional or local climate is not as certain. Scientists are working with state of the art computer models and new data collection methods to sharpen our picture of climate change from worldwide to local scales. We are likely to find that our future climate presents more challenges to parks and people alike. Animal migration patterns will shift. Plants that once thrived will struggle on the edges of their habitat. Storms may increase in intensity. Pests, pathogens, and invasive species will increase. While some places will experience increased drought, others will experience more pronounced flooding. Historic buildings once safe from river levels may be in jeopardy and park infrastructure will be at higher risk. The iconic views visitors enjoy from our national parks may look upon very different landscapes.