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HPC Verification
Forecast Products
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed
24-Hourly QPF's
Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Threat Scores
and Observed Areal Coverage;
Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Bias
Annual HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
1993-2012
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
December 2011 to December 2012
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00")
December 2011 to December 2012
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3)
December 2011 to December 2012
6-Hourly QPF's
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Update
January 2012 to January 2013
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 1
January 2012 to January 2013
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 2
January 2012 to January 2013
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 3
January 2012 to January 2013
HPC vs. NWP Guidance - Threat Scores
February 2012 to January 2013
Days 4-5 QPF's
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
December 2011 to December 2012
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00"
December 2011 to December 2012
5-Day Total QPF's
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
December 2011 to December 2012
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00", 3.00", 4.00"
December 2011 to December 2012
Medium-Range Forecasts
Overview of data plotted on annual charts
Minimum Temperatures
Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2012)
Monthly Performance Charts (December 2011 - December 2012)
Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-December 2012)
Maximum Temperatures
Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2012)
Monthly Performance Charts (December 2011 - December 2012)
Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-December 2012)
Probability of Precipitation (PoP)
Monthly Performance Charts - 24-Hour PoP (December 2011 - December 2012)
Year-to-Date Performance Chart - 24-Hour PoP (January-December 2012)
Monthly Performance Charts - 12-Hour PoP (January 2012 - January 2013)
HPC Gridded Medium-Range Forecasts
How grids are verified
Monthly Performance Charts (January 2013)
Note: MAE = Mean Absolute Error
Forecasts prepared by HPC meteorologists
MOS/HPC/NDFD Minimum Temperature (Days 4-7)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD Maximum Temperature (Days 4-7)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD 12-Hour PoP (Days 4-7)
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Brier Score
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Products derived from forecasts prepared by HPC meteorologists
MOS/HPC/NDFD Dew Point Temperature (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD Wind Speed (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD Wind Direction (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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HPC/NDFD Cloud Cover (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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Mean Sea Level Pressure (PMSL)
HPC -vs- Guidance Anomaly Correlations
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