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Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) |
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Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability |
The IPCC has started the Fifth Assessment cycle, which will include the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Special Reports, Expert Meetings, and Workshops agreed by the Plenary. The outline of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was approved at the 9th Session of Working Group II and accepted by the 31st Session of the IPCC meeting in Bali, Indonesia, 26-29 October 2009. According to the timetable agreed by the IPCC, the Working Group II contribution to the AR5, "Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability", will be released in March 2014.
Writing team membership for the Working Group II contribution to the AR5 was released on 23 June 2010, and consisted of 302 Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, and Review Editors. The WGII Bureau since addressed gaps in expertise and unexpected withdrawals in augmenting teams (see accompanying box). You can check the Working Group II press release associated with the initial launch.
Refer to the AR5 provisional schedule for key WGII AR5 development milestones, and the AR5 writing teams for the current author listing.
| Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Lead Authors Meetings (LAMs) |
The Working Group II AR5 First Lead Authors Meeting was held 11-14 January 2011, in Tsukuba, Japan. Prior to the First Lead Authors Meeting, writing teams were encouraged to develop full chapter outlines, to plan writing assignments, to initiate preliminary literature reviews, and to explore cross-cutting issues related to other chapters — facilitated by the Working Group II Technical Support Unit.
The Working Group II Second Lead Authors Meeting was held 12-15 December 2011, in San Francisco, USA. The primary purpose of the Second Lead Authors Meeting was for writing team members to conduct inter- and intra-chapter evaluations of comments collected as part of the Zero-Order Draft peer review, conducted from 25 July to 21 September 2011.
The Working Group II Third Lead Authors Meeting was held 23-26 October 2012, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The Third Lead Authors Meeting allowed writing team members to evaluate comments collected as part of the First-Order Draft peer review, conducted from 11 June to 6 August 2012. Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors were joined by chapter Review Editors, who ensure that all comments are appropriately considered, that there is a recorded answer for each comment, and that accepted comments are reflected in the text.
The Working Group II Fourth Lead Authors Meeting will be held 15-19 July 2013 in Bled, Slovenia. The primary purpose of this final Lead Authors Meeting is for writing team members to conduct inter- and intra-chapter evaluations of comments collected in the Government and Expert Review, to be held from 28 March - 24 May 2013.
Production milestones have been staggered to optimize the flow of information between Working Groups, to avoid review period overlaps, and to stage approval plenary sessions for the respective AR5 contributions. Refer to the AR5 provisional schedule for key Working Group II development milestones.
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| Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Writing Team Selection |
Author teams have been finalized for the Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report. Refer to the author list for a complete list of the confirmed writing team members and their roles. This is the first step in a 4-year drafting process, with the Working Group II volumes scheduled for completion in March 2014. Check the provisional schedule for more details.
The Working Group II Bureau employed a very deliberate process to evaluate the 1,217 nominations received in response to the Call to Governments and Observer Organizations issued via the IPCC Secretariat. Thorough reviews of all CVs — plus input from IPCC Focal Points, observer organization representatives, and senior leaders in climate science — provided the basis for Working Group II Bureau decisions presented at the 41st Session of the IPCC Bureau (19-20 May 2010 • Geneva, Switzerland). Given the volume of interested scientists and researchers, it was impossible to accommodate all the qualified experts nominated as Coordinating Lead Authors (CLA), Lead Authors (LA), and Review Editors (RE). The Working Group II Bureau pursued two CLAs (usually one developing country / economy-in-transition and one developed country representative), six LAs, and two REs per chapter. The Working Group II Bureau conducted its evaluation of the nominations pool following relevant IPCC Procedures. Further information on CLA/LA/RE responsibilities can be found in Annex I of the Procedures and in the short description here.
While identifying writing teams of the highest scientific merit, the Working Group II Bureau also considered the following guiding principles when evaluating and ranking nominations: (i) appropriate expertise to address effectively the plenary approved outline (PAO); (ii) representation of the full range of scientific opinion; (iii) no repeat CLA pairs from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), in pursuit of fresh insights; (iv) at least 40% developing country / economy-in-transition representation; (v) improved gender balance; (vi) target of 50% "new" authors not directly involved in the AR4 cycle in a substantive role; (vii) target of 20% "young scientist" involvement (i.e., having obtained highest degree within the past 10 years) to ensure experienced authors for future assessments; and (viii) assignment of senior, experienced scientists for CLA and RE positions.
Refer to the table below for detailed statistics regarding the experts nominated and selected for the Working Group II AR5, and to the box at right for a quick summary of how the Working Group II Bureau fared in satisfying its nominations evaluation criteria. The Working Group II Bureau made a concerted effort to engage very senior scientists as Coordinating Lead Authors and Review Editors - as evidenced by the lower percentage of scientists new to the IPCC process in these categories.
WGII Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability |
| WMO Regional Distribution* |
WGII AR5 Nominations |
WGII AR5 Selection |
| I – Africa |
98 (8%) |
36 (12%) |
| II – Asia |
251 (20%) |
42 (14%) |
| III – South America |
70 (6%) |
19 (6%) |
| IV – North America, Central America, and the Caribbean |
327 (27%) |
85 (27%) |
| V – South-West Pacific |
85 (7%) |
32 (10%) |
| VI – Europe |
386 (32%) |
96 (31%) |
| TOTAL |
1,217 |
310 |
| Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, and Review Editors |
CLAs |
LAs |
REs |
Total |
| - Female |
11 (18%) |
55 (30%) |
17 (26%) |
83
(27%) |
| - Developing Country and Economy-in-Transition |
27
(44%) |
75
(41%) |
25
(38%) |
127
(41%) |
| - New |
24 (39%) |
139 (76%) |
24 (36%) |
187
(60%) |
| TOTAL |
61 |
183 |
66 |
310 |
In many cases, writing team members classified as "new" do have a history with the IPCC — as Contributing Authors or Expert Reviewers on the Working Group II contribution to the AR4; as CLA/LA/REs on either of the other two Working Group contributions to the AR4 or its Synthesis Report; as writing team members on previous IPCC Special Reports; or as CLA/LA/REs on previous IPCC assessments, such as the Third Assessment Report (TAR).
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| Call for Author Nominations |
On 15 January 2010, IPCC Focal Points and Observer Organizations were invited to nominate experts as authors and review editors for the three Working Group contributions to the AR5. The nominations period closed on 12 March 2010, but for historical purposes the instructions remain available on line (all embedded links to the nominations system disabled). The selection of authors and review editors will be made by the IPCC Bureau, in accordance with the IPCC procedures.
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| Scoping Process |
A scoping meeting was held 13-17 July 2009 in Venice, Italy. Participants included 209 invited scientific experts in relevant disciplines, selected stakeholders, and members of the IPCC Secretariat and Working Group TSUs. Further information about the meeting, as well as meeting documents and background information can be found online. A full list of participants is also available.
The outlines developed at the scoping meeting were circulated to IPCC Focal Points and Observer Organizations for comment. During its 9th Session (26-27 October 2009), the IPCC WGII finalized and approved the chapter outlines of the WGII contribution to the AR5. The WGII outline (also available in PDF) was then accepted at the 31st Session of the IPCC on 29 October 2009 in Bali, Indonesia.
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Fifth Assessment Report
Writing Team Composition |
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A total of 1,217 nominations were submitted by IPCC Focal Points, Observer Organization representatives, and Working Group II Bureau members in response to the Call issued 15 January 2010. A total of 79 Governments submitted nominations, and 92 nationalities were represented in the candidate pool. The list of the authors of the 310 confirmed writing team members, consisting of 61 Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs), 183 Lead Authors (LAs), and 66 Review Editors (REs), was compiled. The Working Group II Bureau is confident that it has met its goal of identifying writing teams of the highest scientific merit — capturing the needed range of institutional and disciplinary perspective — while ensuring requisite regional and gender balance, and involving the next generation of climate scientists.
| The IPCC WGII AR5 |
Summary Statistics |
| Total Number of Confirmed Writing Team Members: 310 |
| Total Number of Nationalities Represented on Writing Teams: 73 |
| Developing Country and Economy-in-Transition Writing Team Members: 127 (41%) |
| Female Writing Team Members: 83 (27%) |
| Writing Team Members New to the IPCC Process: 187 (60%) |
| Young Scientists Engaged in the Process: 71 (23%) |
- "New" connotes an expert not engaged in the AR4 or the IPCC Special Report currently being prepared by Working Group II (i.e., SREX).
- "Young" connotes an individual who obtained highest degree in 2001 or later.
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