Working Papers
Stimulating discussion and critical comment on research in progress.
1983
- WP 83-04
- Forecasting the Money Supply in Time Series Models
- A demonstration of time series techniques used to forecast quarterly money supply levels. The results indicate that a bivariate model, including an interest rate and M1 predicts M1 better than the univariate model using M1 only, and as well as a 5-variable model which adds prices, output, and credit. (PDF)
- WP 83-03
- Extension of Granger Causality in Multivariate Time Series Models
- This paper proposes an extension of Granger causality when more than two variables are used in a multivariate time series model, and it is necessary to consider more than one-period-ahead forecasts. (PDF)
- WP 83-02
- Holding Company Organizational Form and Efficiency
- An exploration of the impact of multibank holding company organizational centralization on subsidiary bank efficiency, using survey data on holding company structure and a profit-function approach. (PDF)
- WP 83-01
- Non-Nested Specification Tests and the Intermediate Target for Monetary Policy
- An examination of a procedure for comparing non-nested models to the problem of choosing an intermediate target for monetary policy. Six models of economic activity, based on six different monetary aggregates, are compared. (PDF)