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Daniel Hartley |

Research Economist

Daniel Hartley, Research Economist

Daniel Hartley is a research economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He is primarily interested in urban/regional economics and labor economics. His current work focuses on crime, public housing, and neighborhood housing market dynamics.

He completed his PhD at the University of California, Berkeley. He has an M.B.A. in economics and finance from the University of Chicago and an M.Eng. and a B.S. in electrical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

 June, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 12-13 ; Kyle Fee; Working Papers
Abstract: In this paper we contrast the spatial patterns of population density and other demographic changes in growing versus shrinking MSAs from 1980 to 2010. We find that, on average, shrinking MSAs show the steepest drop in population density near the Central Business District (CBD). Motivated by this fact, we explore the connection between changes in population density at the core of the MSA and MSA productivity. We find that changes in near-CBD population density are positively associated with per capita income growth at the MSA-level.
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 February, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 12-05 ; Veronica Guerrieri; Erik Hurst; Working Papers
Abstract: When a city experiences a decline in income or population, do all neighborhoods within the city decline equally? Or do some neighborhoods decline more than others? What are the characteristics of the neighborhoods that decline the most? We answer these questions by looking at what happened to neighborhoods within Detroit as the city experienced a sharp decline in income and population from the 1980s to the late 2000s. We find patterns of changes in income and population that are consistent with the model and empirical patterns of gentrification presented in Guerrieri, Hartley, and Hurst (2011), only playing out in reverse. (Data description)
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 December, 2011 ; Kyle Fee; Economic Commentary
Abstract: In recent decades, some cities have seen their urban centers lose population density, as residents spread farther out to suburbs and exurbs. Others have kept populous downtowns even as their environs have grown.
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 November, 2011 Vol. 2, No. 3 ; Forefront
Abstract: Why economists pay attention to the labor force participation rate.
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 December, 2010 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper, no. 10-22 ; Working Papers
Abstract: Despite popular accounts that link public housing demolitions to spatial redistribution of crime, and possible increases in crime, little systematic research has analyzed the neighborhood or citywide impact of demolitions on crime. In Chicago, which has conducted the largest public housing demolition program in the United States, I find that public housing demolitions are associated with a 10 percent to 20 percent reduction in murder, assault, and robbery in neighborhoods where the demolitions occurred. Furthermore, violent crime rates fell by about the same amount in neighborhoods that received the most displaced public housing households relative to neighborhoods that received fewer displaced public housing households, during the period when these developments were being demolished. This suggests violent crime was not simply displaced from the neighborhoods where demolitions occurred to neighborhoods that received the former public housing residents. However, it is impossible to know what would have happened to violent crime in the receiving neighborhoods had the demolitions not occurred. Finally, using a panel of cities that demolished public housing, I find that the mean public housing demolition is associated with a drop of about 3 percent in a city’s murder rate and about 2 percent in a city’s assault rate. I interpret these findings as evidence that while public housing demolitions may push crime into other parts of a city, crime reductions in neighborhoods where public housing is demolished are larger than crime increases in other neighborhoods. A caveat is that while the citywide reduction in the assault rate appears to be permanent, the citywide reduction in murder rate seems to last for only a few years.
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 October, 2010 ; Economic Commentary
Abstract: A record number of mortgage loans are either in default or in danger of being defaulted upon. Many of the properties that back these loans will end up going through the foreclosure process. A growing body of research shows that foreclosed homes sell at a discount and that foreclosures have a negative impact on the value of other homes that are nearby. The effect on nearby property values happens for two different reasons, but my recent work suggests that one or the other predominates depending on certain characteristics of the neighborhood where the foreclosures are occurring. This finding implies that different approaches might be required to mitigate the negative effects of foreclosures in different neighborhoods.
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 September, 2010 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper, no. 10-11R ; Working Papers
Abstract: Several studies have measured negative price effects of foreclosed residential properties on nearby property sales. However, these studies do not address which mechanism is responsible for these effects. I measure separate effects for different types of foreclosed properties and use these estimates to decompose the effects of foreclosures on nearby home prices into a component that is due to additional available housing supply and a component that is due to disamenity stemming from deferred maintenance or vacancy. I estimate that each extra unit of supply decreases prices within 0.05 miles by about 2 percent while the disamenity stemming from a foreclosed property is near zero. This result is driven by low-vacancy-rate census tracts, where the supply effect is even stronger. In high-vacancy-rate census tracts the supply, effect is roughly zero.
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 July, 2010 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 1008R ; Veronica Guerrieri; Erik Hurst; Working Papers
Abstract: In this paper, we begin by documenting substantial variation in house-price growth across neighborhoods within a city during citywide housing price booms. We then present a model which links house-price movements across neighborhoods within a city and the gentrification of those neighborhoods in response to a citywide housing-demand shock. A key ingredient in our model is a positive neighborhood externality: individuals like to live next to richer neighbors. This generates an equilibrium where households segregate based upon their income. In response to a citywide demand shock, higher-income residents will choose to expand their housing by migrating into the poorer neighborhoods that directly abut the initial richer neighborhoods. The in-migration of the richer residents into these border neighborhoods will bid up prices in those neighborhoods, causing the original poorer residents to migrate out. We refer to this process as "endogenous gentrification." Using a variety of data sets and using Bartik variation across cities to identify city-level housing demand shocks, we find strong empirical support for the model's predictions.
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