Working Papers
Stimulating discussion and critical comment on research in progress.
1985
- WP 85-09
- Total Factor Productivity and Electric Utilities Regulation
- An examination of the components of total factor productivity, including its measurement and the usefulness of TFP indicators to regulators. (PDF)
- WP 85-08
- The Ohio Economy: Using Time Series Characteristics in Forecasting
- The premise of this study is that the regional economist can better understand the Ohio economy by studying the properties of important Ohio time series that can be identified and quantified through simple regression methods. (PDF)
- WP 85-07
- Forecasting and Seasonal Adjustment
- An examination of whether one should seasonally adjust data before developing multivariate time series models to provide forecasts. (PDF)
- WP 85-06
- Stochastic Interest Rates in the Aggregate Life Cycle/Permanent Income Cum Rational Expectations Model
- An estimation of the life cycle/permanent income model with rational expectations that allows for uncertain future interest rates. Results provide ample evidence to reject this form of model during the postwar period. (PDF)
- WP 85-05
- Dynamics of Fixprice Model
- An examination of the dynamics of a class of disequilibrium models developed in earlier Working Paper 8504, using both graphics and analysis to show that non-Walrasian equilibria can be steady states for disequilibrium models. (PDF)
- WP 85-04
- Fixprice Models for Dynamic Studies
- A specification of static fixprice (or disequilibrium) models developed for dynamic extension in the companion piece, Working Paper 8505. This paper, using only static analysis, gives the disequilibrium explanation for the existence of business cycles. (PDF)
- WP 85-03
- Forecasting GNP Using Monthly M1
- A presentation of multivariate time series forecasting in which the data consist of a mixture of quarterly and monthly series. in particular, a monthly series of M1 is used to forecast quarterly GNP. (PDF)
- WP 85-02
- Federal Reserve Credibility and the Market’s Response to the Weekly M1 Announcements
- A presentation of new evidence on the issue of Federal Reserve System credibility, examining the response pattern of asset prices to the weekly M1 announcements under different operating procedures and monetary policy regimes. (PDF)
- WP 85-01
- A Bureaucratic Theory of Flypaper Effects
- An analysis of two competing theories, the median voter model and the bureaucratic model, as they relate to how noncategorical grants to communities are spent. (PDF)