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National Economy
Our national economic research focuses on monetary policy and other issues of importance to the Federal Reserve. Results are shared with other researchers, policymakers and the public.
National Information
- FOMC Press Releases
- Federal Funds Target
- Gross Domestic Product
- The Beige Book
- Prices & Inflation
- Labor Markets
- Daily Interest Rates
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FREDII)
- Fed in Print
A searchable index of Federal Reserve economic research.
Recent Research
- Has Globalization Increased the Synchronicity of International Business Cycles?
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The State Space Representation and Estimation of a Time-Varying Parameter VAR with Stochastic...
By Taeyoung Doh and Michael Connolly
Estimating a time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility using the state space representation suggests that the trend and volatility of the U.S. unemployment rate increased substantially around the 2007-09 recession while the trend and volatility of inflation and the long-term interest rate were relatively stable. -
Why Does Unemployment Differ Persistently Across Metro Areas?
By Jordan Rappaport
Metro areas with high or low unemployment rates tend to stay that way over decades. The main factors that sustain large differences in metro unemployment rates are a mismatch of worker skills to firms' hiring needs, differences in metro area characteristics, and high moving costs. -
Model Uncertainty, State Uncertainty, and State-space Models
By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric R. Young
A classic macroeconomic framework with model uncertainty and state uncertainty can have a state-space representation and thus be used to address a range of interesting questions in macroeconomics and international economics. -
Model Uncertainty and Intertemporal Tax Smoothing
By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric R. Young
What are the implications of model uncertainty for the tax-smoothing hypothesis?
Kansas City Financial Stress Index
This index is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 market variables.
The KCFSI suggests financial stress continued to decline in September.
Current Survey-
Economic Review
The Economic Review is a quarterly research publication with articles by Kansas City Fed staff on issues of relevance to the Federal Reserve, including macroeconomics and monetary policy, regional and international economics, banking, financial markets and payments systems.
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Research Working Papers
The Kansas City Fed's research staff members produce working papers covering a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, banking and more.
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Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings
The proceedings include papers, commentary and discussion from the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. Participants include central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the globe. They discuss economic issues, implications and policy options.
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Central Bank Forecasting Presentations - October 2010
Invited applied and theoretical papers on all aspects of central bank forecasting.