home

Workshop on Central Bank Forecasting

The aim of the workshop was to offer a platform for discussion between practitioners and researchers, and to share experience on the tools that have proven useful in turbulent times and those aspects of forecasting that require enhancement. The organizers, Todd Clark and Martin Fukac, invited applied and theoretical papers on all aspects of central bank forecasting.  The workshop was held on October 14-15, 2010 in Kansas City, Missouri.

Papers and presentations

Plenary speakers:
Hi, I'm a Macro Professor and I'm Here to Help!
Jon Faust, Johns Hopkins University

Modeling Fiscal Matters
Eric Leeper, Indiana University

Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach
Jonathan Wright, Johns Hopkins University

Panel Discussions:
Central Bank Forecasting During the Crisis
Gunter Coenen, European Central Bank

Papers:
Green Shoots in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure
Maximo Camacho, Universidad de Murcia, Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Banco de Espana

Discussant:
Marcelle Chauvet, University of California, Riverside

Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Models
Emanuel Moench, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Serena Ng, Columbia University; Simon Potter, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Discussant:
Christopher Otrok, University of Virginia

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Emerging-Market Economies: An Operational Framework
Jaromir Benes, Michael Kumhof, International Monetary Fund; David Vavra, O.G. Research

Discussant:
Skander J. Van den Heuvel, Federal Reserve Board

Estimating DSGE Models with Observed Real-Time Expectation Data
Michael Juillard, Banque de France; Junior Maih, Norges Bank

Discussant:
Jesper Linde, Federal Reserve Board

Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach
Domenico Giannone,Universite Libre Bruxelles; Michele Lenza, Daphne Momfertou, and Luca Onorante, European Central Bank

Discussant:
Andros Kourtellos, University of Cyprus

Nowcasting Norwegian GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach
Knut Are Aastveit, Karsten R. Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore, Leif Anders Thorsrud, Norges Bank

Discussant:
Kenneth Wallis, University of Warwick

On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment
Nikita Perevalov, Philipp Maier, Bank of Canada

Discussant:
Philip Liu, International Monetary Fund

Forecasting the Price of Oil
Ron Alquist, Bank of Canada; Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan CEPR; Rob Vigfusson, Federal Reserve Board

Discussant:
Keith Sill, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

 
Feedback