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Upcoming Events
- October 18, 2012
Payments Exchange: Kansas City
- October 25, 2012
Promising Pathways to Wealth-Building Financial Services
- October 30, 2012
Grow Your Own Conference: Entrepreneurship-Based Development
- November 1, 2012
Evening at the Fed
Workshop on Central Bank Forecasting
The aim of the workshop was to offer a platform for discussion between practitioners and researchers, and to share experience on the tools that have proven useful in turbulent times and those aspects of forecasting that require enhancement. The organizers, Todd Clark and Martin Fukac, invited applied and theoretical papers on all aspects of central bank forecasting. The workshop was held on October 14-15, 2010 in Kansas City, Missouri.
Papers and presentations
Plenary speakers:
Hi, I'm a Macro Professor and I'm Here to Help!
Jon Faust, Johns Hopkins University
Modeling Fiscal Matters
Eric Leeper, Indiana University
Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach
Jonathan Wright, Johns Hopkins University
Panel Discussions:
Central Bank Forecasting During the Crisis
Gunter Coenen, European Central Bank
Papers:
Green Shoots in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure
Maximo Camacho, Universidad de Murcia, Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Banco de Espana
Discussant:
Marcelle Chauvet, University of California, Riverside
Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Models
Emanuel Moench, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Serena Ng, Columbia University; Simon Potter, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Discussant:
Christopher Otrok, University of Virginia
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Emerging-Market Economies: An Operational Framework
Jaromir Benes, Michael Kumhof, International Monetary Fund; David Vavra, O.G. Research
Discussant:
Skander J. Van den Heuvel, Federal Reserve Board
Estimating DSGE Models with Observed Real-Time Expectation Data
Michael Juillard, Banque de France; Junior Maih, Norges Bank
Discussant:
Jesper Linde, Federal Reserve Board
Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach
Domenico Giannone,Universite Libre Bruxelles; Michele Lenza, Daphne Momfertou, and Luca Onorante, European Central Bank
Discussant:
Andros Kourtellos, University of Cyprus
Nowcasting Norwegian GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach
Knut Are Aastveit, Karsten R. Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore, Leif Anders Thorsrud, Norges Bank
Discussant:
Kenneth Wallis, University of Warwick
On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment
Nikita Perevalov, Philipp Maier, Bank of Canada
Discussant:
Philip Liu, International Monetary Fund
Forecasting the Price of Oil
Ron Alquist, Bank of Canada; Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan CEPR; Rob Vigfusson, Federal Reserve Board
Discussant:
Keith Sill, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia