Short, timely articles with graphs about recent analyses and projections.

Released: December 1, 2012

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook forecasts. (archived versions)

Released: October 10, 2012

Short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2013 for U.S. and International oil forecasts (archived versions)

Released: August 2, 2012

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. (archived versions)

Released: June 25, 2012

The AEO Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections. (archived versions)

Released: June 25, 2012

The complete version of Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) which, in addition to the Reference case projections, includes 29 alternative cases which show how different assumptions regarding market, policy, and technology drivers affect projections of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. (archived versions)

Released: March 16, 2012

The Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review provides a yearly comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous AEOs beginning with 1982. This edition of the report adds the AEO 2011 projections and updates the historical data to incorporate the latest data revisions. (archived versions)

Released: February 29, 2012

Documents the archived version of the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts used in support of the Annual Energy Outlook 2011. (archived versions)

Released: November 30, 2011

This report addresses an August 2011 request to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) from Senator Jeff Bingaman, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, for an analysis of the impacts of a Clean Energy Standard (CES).

Released: October 25, 2011

This report responds to a request from Chairman Ralph M. Hall for an analysis of the impacts of a Clean Energy Standard (CES). The request, as outlined in the letter included in Appendix A, sets out specific assumptions and scenarios for the study.

Released: September 29, 2011

This report contains a summary description of the methodology and scope of WEPS+ and each of its component models. WEPS+ is a computer-based, energy modeling system of long-term international energy markets for the period through 2035. The system was used to produce the International Energy Outlook 2011. (archived versions)

Released: September 19, 2011

This report presents international energy projections through 2035, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. (archived versions)

Released: April 12, 2011

Projection of motor gasoline prices, supply, and demand for the upcoming summer driving season.

Released: March 17, 2011

Presented by: Richard G. Newell, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration, to: Committee on Natural Resources, United States House of Representatives; Washington, DCMarch 17, 2011

Released: February 10, 2011

Presented by Richard G. Newell, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration; to Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, United States Senate; Washington, D.C.February 3, 2011

Released: February 3, 2011

Presented by: Richard G. Newell, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration, to: Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee United States Senate; Washington, D.C.

Released: February 2, 2011

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: Saudi Arabia - United States Energy Consultations; Washington, DC

Released: February 2, 2011

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: Saudi Arabia - United States Energy Consultations; Washington, DC

Released: February 2, 2011

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator to: Saudi Arabia - United States Energy Consultations

Released: December 16, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies; Washington, DC

Released: December 10, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, to: The Energy Council, Global Energy and Environmental Issues Conference; Santa Fe, NM

Released: December 7, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, to: Bipartisan Policy Center, Workshop on Reliability Impacts of Power Sector Developments; Washington, DC

Released: December 2, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, to: U.S. - Canada Energy Consultative Mechanism; Washington, DC

Released: November 18, 2010

This paper provides information on the cost of building new electricity power plants. These cost estimates are critical inputs in the development of energy projections and analyses.

Released: October 18, 2010

This report responds to a letter dated August 16, 2010, from Janice Mays, Staff Director of the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Ways and Means, requesting that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze several provisions included in the July 26, 2010, discussion draft of the Domestic Manufacturing and Energy Jobs Act of 2010.

Released: October 18, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: New York Energy Forum; New York, NY

Released: October 15, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator. to: USAEE/IAEE North American Conference; Calgary, AB

Released: October 13, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference; Washington, DC

Released: October 11, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: American Gas Association Executive Conference; Chicago, IL

Released: October 1, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: Looking Beyond the Deepwater Horizon: Meeting Global Energy Needs in the 21st Century; University of Maryland

Released: September 14, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: XXI World Energy Congress; Montreal, Canada

Released: August 25, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: MIT-NESCAUM Endicott House; Boston, MA

Released: August 23, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, to: Global Shale Gas Initiative Conference; Washington, DC

Released: July 16, 2010

This report responds to a request from Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman for an analysis of the American Power Act of 2010 (APA). APA, as released by Senators Kerry and Lieberman on May 12, 2010, regulates emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, efficiency programs, and other economic incentives.

Released: June 1, 2010

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Released: May 11, 2010

Production from low-permeability reservoirs, including shale gas and tight gas, has become a major source of domestic natural gas supply. In 2008, low-permeability reservoirs accounted for about 40 percent of natural gas production and about 35 percent of natural gas consumption in the United States. Permeability is a measure of the rate at which liquids and gases can move through rock. Low-permeability natural gas reservoirs encompass the shale, sandstone, and carbonate formations whose natural permeability is roughly 0.1 millidarcies or below. (Permeability is measured in darcies.)

Released: May 11, 2010

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Released: May 11, 2010

On April 1, 2010, the EPA issued a set of new guidelines to several of its Regional offices regarding the compliance of surface coal mining operations in Appalachia with the provisions of the Clean Water Act (CWA), the National Environmental Policy Act, and the environmental justice Executive Order (E.O. 12898). The stated purpose of the guidance was to explain more fully the approach that the EPA will be following in permit reviews, and to provide additional assurance that its Regional offices use clear, consistent, and science-based standards in reviewing the permits. Although the new guidelines go into effect immediately, they will be subjected to review both by the public and by the EPAs Science Advisory Board, with a set of final guidelines to be issued no later than April 1, 2011.

Released: May 11, 2010

Nuclear power plants generate approximately 20 percent of U.S. electricity, and the plants in operation today are often seen as attractive assets in the current environment of uncertainty about future fossil fuel prices, high construction costs for new power plants (particularly nuclear plants), and the potential enactment of GHG regulations. Existing nuclear power plants have low fuel costs and relatively high power output. However, there is uncertainty about how long they will be allowed to continue operating.

Released: May 11, 2010

Energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of real GDP) indicates how much energy a country uses to produce its goods and services. From the early 1950s to the early 1970s, U.S. total primary energy consumption and real GDP increased at nearly the same annual rate (Figure 17). During that period, real oil prices remained virtually flat. In contrast, from the mid-1970s to 2008, the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP growth changed, with primary energy consumption growing at less than one-third the previous average rate and real GDP growth continuing to grow at its historical rate. The decoupling of real GDP growth from energy consumption growth led to a decline in energy intensity that averaged 2.8 percent per year from 1973 to 2008. In the AEO2010 Reference case, energy intensity continues to decline, at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2008 to 2035.

Released: May 11, 2010

Environmental and energy security concerns related to petroleum use for transportation fuels, together with recent growth in U.S. proved reserves and technically recoverable natural gas resources, including shale gas, have sparked interest in policy proposals aimed at stimulating increased use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel, particularly for heavy trucks.

Released: May 11, 2010

Provides a review of the treatment of Federal fuels taxes and tax credits in AEO2010.

Released: May 11, 2010

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Climate Initiative, and Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord

Released: May 11, 2010

State RPS programs continue to play an important role in AEO2009, growing in number while existing programs are modified with more stringent targets. In total, 28 States and the District of Columbia now have mandatory RPS programs (Table 3), and at least 4 other States have voluntary renewable energy programs. In the absence of a Federal renewable electricity standard, each State determines its own levels of generation, eligible technologies, and noncompliance penalties. The growth in State renewable energy requirements has led to an expansion of renewable energy credit (REC) markets, which vary from State to State. Credit prices depend on the State renewable requirements and how easily they can be met.

Released: May 11, 2010

Realized improvements in energy efficiency generally rely on a combination of technology and economics [47]. The figure below illustrates the role of technology assumptions in the AEO2010 projections for energy efficiency in the residential and commercial buildings sector. Projected energy consumption in the Reference case is compared with projections in the Best Available Technology, High Technology, and 2009 Technology cases and an estimate based on an assumption of no change in efficiency for building shells and equipment.

Released: May 11, 2010

Growth in U.S. energy use is linked to population growth through increases in demand for housing, commercial floorspace, transportation, manufacturing, and services. This affects not only the level of energy use, but also the mix of fuels and consumption by sector.

Released: May 11, 2010

ARRA, signed into law in mid-February 2009, provides significant new Federal funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits to stimulate investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy. The provisions of ARRA were incorporated initially as part of a revision to the AEO2009 Reference case that was released in April 2009, and they also are included in AEO2010.

Released: May 11, 2010

The AEO2010 Reference case is best described as a current laws and regulations case, because it generally assumes that existing laws and fully promulgated regulations will remain unchanged throughout the projection period, unless the legislation establishing them specifically calls for them to end or change. The Reference case often serves as a starting point for the analysis of proposed legislative or regulatory changes, a task that would be difficult if the Reference case included projected legislative or regulatory changes.

Released: May 11, 2010

On December 23, 2008, the D.C. Circuit Court remanded but did not vacate CAIR, overriding its previous decision on February 8, 2008, to remand and vacate CAIR. The December decision, which is reflected in AEO2010, allows CAIR to remain in effect, providing time for the EPA to modify the rule in order to address objections raised by the Court in its earlier decision. A similar rule, referred to as the CAMR, which was to set up a cap-and-trade system for reducing mercury emissions by approximately 70 percent, is not represented in the AEO2010 projections, because it was vacated by the D.C. Circuit Court in February 2008.

Released: May 11, 2010

CO2 emissions from the combustion of biomass [75] to produce energy are excluded from the energy-related CO2 emissions reported in AEO2010. According to current international convention, carbon released through biomass combustion is excluded from reported energy-related emissions. The release of carbon from biomass combustion is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time]. However, analysts have debated whether increased use of biomass energy may result in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, leading to a net positive release of carbon rather than the zero net release assumed by its exclusion from reported energy-related emissions.

Released: May 11, 2010

In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or sweet) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for total liquids, which includes conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gainin addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Released: May 11, 2010

To the extent possible, AEO2010 incorporates the impacts of State laws requiring the addition of renewable generation or capacity by utilities doing business in the States. Currently, 30 States and the District of Columbia have enforceable RPS or similar laws). Under such standards, each State determines its own levels of generation, eligible technologies, and noncompliance penalties. AEO2010 includes the impacts of all laws in effect as of September 2009 (with the exception of Hawaii, because NEMS provides electricity market projections for the continental United States only).

Released: May 11, 2010

Pursuant to the Presidents announcement of a National Fuel Efficiency Policy, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the EPA have promulgated nationally coordinated standards for tailpipe CO2-equivalent emissions and fuel economy for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) [16], which includes both passenger cars and light-duty trucks. In the joint rulemaking, EPA is enacting CO2-equivalent emissions standards under the Clean Air Act (CAA), and NHTSA is enacting companion CAFE standards under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended by EISA2007.

Released: April 1, 2010

EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Released: January 2, 2010

Two large categories define the world's producing countries of crude oil and other liquid fuels (hereafter liquids): those that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and those that are outside that group (non-OPEC). This article takes a closer look at the latter category.

Released: October 6, 2009

EIA Measures Price Uncertainty in Oil and Natural Gas Markets

Released: October 6, 2009

EIA Forecasts 5.9 Percent Decline in U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2009

Released: October 1, 2009

The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009 a summary description of NEMS and each of its components. NEMS is a computer-based, energy-economy modeling system of energy markets for the midterm period through 2030. The NEMS is used to produce the Annual Energy Outlook.

Released: August 11, 2009

Supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook. Short-term projections for U.S. carbon dioxide emissions of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

Released: August 4, 2009

This report responds to a request from Chairman Henry Waxman and Chairman Edward Markey for an analysis of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACESA). ACESA, as passed by the House of Representatives on June 26, 2009, is a complex bill that regulates emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, efficiency programs, and economic incentives.

Released: June 1, 2009

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Released: May 12, 2009

This supplement to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) May 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) focuses on changes in the utilization of coal- and natural-gas-fired generation capacity in the electric utility sector as the differential between delivered fuel prices narrows.

Released: April 27, 2009

This report responds to requests from Chairman Edward Markey, for an analysis of a 25-percent Federal renewable electricity standard (RES). The RES proposal analyzed in this report is included in the discussion draft of broader legislation, the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA) of 2009, issued on the Energy and Commerce Committee website at the end of March 2009.

Released: April 21, 2009

This report updates the Reference Case presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 based on recently enacted legislation and the changing macroeconomic environment.

Released: March 31, 2009

In AEO2009, E10a gasoline blend containing 10 percent ethanolis assumed to be the maximum ethanol blend allowed in California RFG, as opposed to the 5.7-percent blend assumed in earlier AEOs. The 5.7-percent blend had reflected decisions made when California decided to phase out use of the additive methyl tertiary butyl ether in its RFG program in 2003, opting instead to use ethanol in the minimum amount that would meet the requirement for 2.0 percent oxygen content under the CAA provisions in effect at that time

Released: March 31, 2009

Construction costs for new power plants have increased at an extraordinary rate over the past several years. One study, published in mid-2008, reported that construction costs had more than doubled since 2000, with most of the increase occurring since 2005. Construction costs have increased for plants of all types, including coal, nuclear, natural gas, and wind.

Released: March 31, 2009

CAIR is a cap-and-trade program promulgated by the EPA in 2005, covering 28 eastern U.S. States and the District of Columbia [29]. It was designed to reduce sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in order to help States meet their National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5) and to further emissions reductions already achieved through the Acid Rain Program and the NOx State Implementation Plan call program. The rule was set to commence in 2009 for seasonal and annual NOx emissions and in 2010 for SO2 emissions.

Released: March 31, 2009

On February 8, 2008, a three-judge panel on the D.C. Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals issued a decision to vacate CAMR. In its ruling, the panel cited the history of hazardous air pollutant regulation under Section 112 of the Clean Air Act (CAA) [28]. Section 112, as written by Congress, listed emitted mercury as a hazardous air pollutant that must be subject to regulation unless it can be proved harmless to public welfare and the environment. In 2000, the EPA ruled that mercury was indeed hazardous and must be regulated under Section 112 and, therefore, subjected to the best available control technology for mitigation.

Released: March 31, 2009

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-343), which was signed into law on October 3, 2008, incorporates EIEA2008 in Division B. Provisions in EIEA2008 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain or that require further specification by Federal agencies or Congress, are not included in AEO2009.

Released: March 31, 2009

Provides a review and update of the handling of Federal fuels taxes and tax credits, focusing primarily on areas for which regulations have changed or the handling of taxes or credits has been updated in AEO2009.

Released: March 31, 2009

EISA2007 requires the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to raise the CAFE standards for passenger cars and light trucks to ensure that the average tested fuel economy of the combined fleet of all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the United States in model year (MY) 2020 equals or exceeds 35 mpg, 34 percent above the current fleet average of 26.4 mpg. Pursuant to this legislation, NHTSA recently proposed revised CAFE standards that substantially increase the minimum fuel economy requirements for passenger cars and light trucks for MY 2011 through MY 2015.

Released: March 31, 2009

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and Western Climate Initiative

Released: March 31, 2009

State appliance standards have existed for decades, starting with Californias enforcement of minimum efficiency requirements for refrigerators and several other products in 1979. In 1987, recognizing that different efficiency standards for the same products in different States could create problems for manufacturers, Congress enacted the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act (NAECA), which initially covered 12 products. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT92), EPACT2005, and EISA2007 added additional residential and commercial products to the 12 products originally specified under NAECA.

Released: March 31, 2009

Title XVII of EPACT2005 [20] authorized DOE to issue loan guarantees to new or improved technology projects that avoid, reduce, or sequester GHGs. In 2006, DOE issued its first solicitation for $4 billion in loan guarantees for non-nuclear technologies. The issue of the size of the program was addressed subsequently in the Consolidated Appropriation Act of 2008 (the FY08 Appropriations Act) passed in December 2008, which limited future solicitations to $38.5 billion and stated that authority to make the guarantees would end on September 30, 2009. The legislation also allocated the $38.5 billion cap as follows: $18.5 billion for nuclear plants; $6 billion for CCS technologies; $2 billion for advanced coal gasification units; $2 billion for advanced nuclear facilities for the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle; and $10 billion for renewable, conservation, distributed energy, and transmission/ distribution technologies. DOE also was required to submit all future solicitations to both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees for approval.

Released: March 31, 2009

Tax incentives have been an important factor in the growth of renewable generation over the past decade, and they could continue to be important in the future. The Energy Tax Act of 1978 (Public Law 95-618) established ITCs for wind, and EPACT92 established the Renewable Electricity Production Credit (more commonly called the PTC) as an incentive to promote certain kinds of renewable generation beyond wind on the basis of production levels. Specifically, the PTC provided an inflation-adjusted tax credit of 1.5 cents per kilowatthour for generation sold from qualifying facilities during the first 10 years of operation. The credit was available initially to wind plants and facilities that used closed-loop biomass fuels [75] and were placed in service after passage of the Act and before June 1999.

Released: March 31, 2009

The oil prices reported in AEO2009 represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars [50]. Projections of future supply and demand are made for liquids, a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquidsin addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Released: March 31, 2009

PHEVs have gained significant attention in recent years, as concerns about energy, environmental, and economic securityincluding rising gasoline prices have prompted efforts to improve vehicle fuel economy and reduce petroleum consumption in the transportation sector. PHEVs are particularly well suited to meet these objectives, because they have the potential to reduce petroleum consumption both through fuel economy gains and by substituting electric power for gasoline use.

Released: March 31, 2009

The U.S. offshore is estimated to contain substantial resources of both crude oil and natural gas, but until recently some of the areas of the lower 48 OCS have been under leasing moratoria. The Presidential ban on offshore drilling in portions of the lower 48 OCS was lifted in July 2008, and the Congressional ban was allowed to expire in September 2008, removing regulatory obstacles to development of the Atlantic and Pacific OCS.

Released: March 31, 2009

Oil shales are fine-grained sedimentary rocks that contain relatively large amounts of kerogen, which can be converted into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons (petroleum liquids, natural gas liquids, and methane) by heating the rock, usually in the absence of oxygen, to 650 to 700 degrees Fahrenheit (in situ retorting) or 900 to 950 degrees Fahrenheit (surface retorting) [60]. (Oil shale is, strictly speaking, a misnomer in that the rock is not necessarily a shale and contains no crude oil.) The richest U.S. oil shale deposits are located in Northwest Colorado, Northeast Utah, and Southwest Wyoming. Currently, those deposits are the focus of petroleum industry research and potential future production. Among the three States, the richest oil shale deposits are on Federal lands in Northwest Colorado.

Released: March 31, 2009

At least three alternatives have been proposed over the years for bringing sizable volumes of natural gas from Alaskas remote North Slope to market in the lower 48 States: a pipeline interconnecting with the existing pipeline system in central Alberta, Canada; a GTL plant on the North Slope; and a large LNG export facility at Valdez, Alaska. NEMS explicitly models the pipeline and GTL options [63]. The what if LNG option is not modeled in NEMS.

Released: March 31, 2009

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the AEO2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

Released: March 13, 2009

Concerns about potential climate change driven by rising atmospheric concentrations of GHGs have grown over the past two decades, both domestically and abroad. In the United States, potential policies to limit or reduce GHG emissions are in various stages of development at the State, regional, and Federal levels. In addition to ongoing uncertainty with respect to future growth in energy demand and the costs of fuel, labor, and new plant construction, U.S. electric power companies must consider the effects of potential policy changes to limit or reduce GHG emissions that would significantly alter their planning and operating decisions. The possibility of such changes may already be affecting planning decisions for new generating capacity.

Released: March 13, 2009

From 1982 through 2008, Congress annually enacted appropriations riders prohibiting the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior from conducting activities related to leasing, exploration, and production of oil and natural gas on much of the Federal OCS. Further, a separate executive ban (originally put in place in 1990 by President George H.W. Bush and later extended by President William J. Clinton through 2012) also prohibited leasing on the OCS, with the exception of the Western Gulf of Mexico, portions of the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Alaska. In combination, those actions prohibited drilling along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and in portions of the central Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 (Public Law 109-432) imposed yet a third ban on drilling through 2022 on tracts in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico that are within 125 miles of Florida, east of a dividing line known as the Military Mission Line, and in the Central Gulf of Mexico within 100 miles of Florida.

Released: February 1, 2009

This report responds to a request from Senator Jeff Sessions for an analysis of the environmental and energy efficiency attributes of light-duty diesel vehicles. Specifically, the inquiry asked for a comparison of the characteristics of diesel-fueled vehicles with those of similar gasoline-fueled, E85-fueled, and hybrid vehicles, as well as a discussion of any technical, economic, regulatory, or other obstacles to increasing the use of diesel-fueled vehicles in the United States.

Released: September 24, 2008

Weather-related energy use, in the form of heating, cooling, and ventilation, accounted for more than 40 percent of all delivered energy use in residential and commercial buildings in 2006. Given the relatively large amount of energy affected by ambient temperature in the buildings sector, EIA has reevaluated what it considers normal weather for purposes of projecting future energy use for heating, cooling, and ventilation. In AEO2008, estimates of normal heating and cooling degree-days are based on the population-weighted average for the 10-year period from 1997 through 2006.

Released: September 24, 2008

From the late 1970s through 2002, steel, cement, and concrete prices followed a general downward trend. Since then, however, iron and steel prices have increased by 8 percent in 2003, 10 percent in 2004, and 31 percent in 2005. Although iron and steel prices declined in 2006, early data for 2007 show another increase. Cement and concrete prices, as well as the composite cost index for all construction commodities, have shown similar trends but with smaller increases in 2004 and 2005.

Released: September 24, 2008

Currently, distributed generation provides a very small share of residential and commercial electricity requirements in the United States. The AEO2005 reference case projects a significant increase in electricity generation in the buildings sector, but distributed generation is expected to remain a small contributor to the sectors energy needs. Although the advent of higher energy prices or more rapid improvement in technology could increase the use of distributed generation relative to the reference case projection, the vast majority of electricity used in buildings is projected to continue to be purchased from the grid.

Released: September 12, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senator Byron L. Dorgan for an analysis of the impacts on U.S. energy import dependence and emission reductions resulting from the commercialization of advanced hydrogen and fuel cell technologies in the transportation and distributed generation markets.

Released: July 2, 2008

World natural gas consumption and production are expected to increase by more than 50 percent from 2005 through 2030. Asia is expected to become the world's number one gas consumer, taking over that spot from North America, as China's economy grows 6.4 percent annually. Non-OECD countries are expected to account for more than 70 percent of the world's total growth in consumption and production of natural gas over the forecast period. A significant portion of the non-OECD production growth is expected to be in the form of export projects, particularly LNG projects. World LNG trade is projected to more than double by 2030, with the center of the trade moving away from northeast Asia toward an even Atlantic/Pacific basin split.

Released: June 30, 2008

This presentation provides an analysis of the various factors behind a six year, six-folding in oil prices and the market conditions likely to either accelerate that rise or result in a significant downturn.

Released: June 26, 2008

Development of U.S. energy resources and the permitting and construction of large energy facilities have become increasingly difficult over the past 20 years, and they could become even more difficult in the future. Growing public concern about global warming and CO2 emissions also casts doubt on future consumption of fossil fuelsparticularly coal, which releases the largest amount of CO2 per unit of energy produced. Even without regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, the investment community may already be limiting the future use of some energy options. In addition, there is considerable uncertainty about the future availability of, and access to, both domestic and foreign natural gas resources.

Released: June 26, 2008

U.S. imports of LNG in 2007 were more than triple the 2000 total, and they are expected to grow in the long term as North Americas conventional natural gas production declines. With U.S. dependence on LNG imports increasing, competitive forces in the international markets for natural gas in general and LNG in particular will play a larger role in shaping the U.S. market for LNG. Key factors currently shaping the future of the global LNG market include the evolution of project economics, worldwide demand for natural gas, government policies that affect the development and use of natural resources in countries with LNG facilities, and changes in seasonal patterns of LNG trade.

Released: June 26, 2008

On February 9, 2007, the EPA released its MSAT2 rule, which will establish controls on gasoline, passenger vehicles, and portable fuel containers. The controls are designed to reduce emissions of benzene and other hazardous air pollutants. Benzene is a known carcinogen, and the EPA estimates that mobile sources produced more than 70 percent of all benzene emissions in 1999. Other mobile source air toxics, including 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, and naphthalene, also are thought to increase cancer rates or contribute to other serious health problems.

Released: June 26, 2008

Title XVII of EPACT2005 authorized DOE to issue loan guarantees for projects involving new or improved technologies to avoid, reduce, or sequester GHGs. The law specified that the amount of the guarantee would be up to 80 percent of a project's cost. EPACT2005 also specified that DOE must receive funds equal to the subsidy cost either through the Federal appropriations process or from the firm receiving the guarantee [24]. As discussed in AEO2007, this program, by lowering borrowing costs, can have a major impact on the economics of capital-intensive technologies.

Released: June 26, 2008

AEO2008 defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both above ground and below ground factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non- OECD countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. EIA will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

Released: June 26, 2008

States are moving forward with implementation plans for the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) [42]. The program, promulgated by the EPA in March 2005, is a cap-and-trade system designed to reduce emissions of SO2 and NOx. States originally had until March 2007 to submit implementation plans, but the deadline has been extended by another year. CAIR covers 28 eastern States and the District of Columbia. States have the option to participate in the cap-andtrade plan or devise their own plans, which can be more stringent than the Federal requirements. To date, no State has indicated an intent to form NOx and SO2 programs with emissions limits stricter than those in CAIR, and it is expected that all States will participate in the EPA-administered cap-and-trade program. CAIR remains on schedule for implementation, and AEO2008 includes CAIR by assuming that all required States will meet only the Federal requirement and will trade credits.

Released: June 26, 2008

The AEO2008 reference case incorporates current regulations that pertain to the energy industry. This section describes the handling of Federal taxes and tax credits in AEO2008, focusing primarily on areas where regulations have changed or the handling of taxes or tax credits has been updated.

Released: June 26, 2008

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 was signed into law on December 19, 2007, and became Public Law 110-140 [8]. Provisions in EISA2007 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain, or that require further specification by Federal agencies or Congress are not included in AEO2008. For example, EIA does not try to anticipate policy responses to the many studies required by EISA2007, nor to predict the impact of research and development (R&D) funding authorizations included in the bill. Moreover, AEO2008 does not include any provision that addresses a level of detail beyond that modeled in NEMS, which was used to develop the AEO2008 projections. AEO2008 addresses only those provisions in EISA2007 that establish specific tax credits, incentives, or standards, including the following:

Released: June 26, 2008

In recent years, the AEO has tracked the growing number of States that have adopted requirements or goals for renewable energy. While there is no Federal renewable generation mandate, the States have been adopting such standards for some time. AEO2005 provided a summary of all existing programs in effect at that time [29], and subsequent AEOs have examined new policies or changes to existing ones [30,31]. Since the publication of AEO2007, four States have enacted new RPS legislation, and five others have strengthened their existing RPS programs. In total, 25 States and the District of Columb

Released: June 24, 2008

U.S. natural gas storage operators are in a good position to take advantage of growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. With the largest storage capacity in the world, the United States has the capability to import LNG in the summer for winter peak use. The normal falloff in global natural gas demand during the summer frees up some LNG supplies, but storage operators in many countries compete for this gas. The ability of U.S. operators to attract LNG supplies depends on the relative prices in the United States and other countries. At the same time, LNG imports compete with domestic supplies.

Released: June 10, 2008

EIA estimates of expected production shut-ins of crude oil and natural gas in the U.S. Gulf Coast during the upcoming hurricane season (June through November).

Released: May 22, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senator Ted Stevens that the Energy Information Administration provide an assessment of Federal oil and natural gas leasing in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska.

Released: April 30, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senators Lieberman and Warner for an analysis of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007. S.2191 is a complex bill regulating emissions of greenhouse gases through market- based mechanisms, energy efficiency programs, and economic incentives.

Released: April 8, 2008

This report focuses on the major factors that drove the widening difference between wholesale gasoline and crude oil prices in 2007 and explores how those factors might impact gasoline prices in 2008.

Released: February 1, 2008

In 2008-2009, EIA expects that non-OPEC petroleum supply growth will surpass that in recent years because of the large number of new oil projects scheduled to come online during the forecast period.

Released: January 10, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senators Bingaman and Specter for an analysis of a bill designed to cap greenhouse gas emissions at approximately 2006 levels in 2020, 1990 levels in 2030, and at least 60 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

Released: December 4, 2007

This paper responds to an October 31, 2007, request from Representatives Barton, McCrery, and Young.

Released: November 6, 2007

Why Are Oil Prices So High?

Released: November 1, 2007

This paper responds to a September 18, 2007, letter from Senators Barrasso, Inhofe, and Voinovich, seeking further energy and economic analysis to supplement information presented in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) recent analysis of S.280, the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007.

Released: September 20, 2007

This Supplement to EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook analyzes current natural gas production, pipeline and storage infrastructure in the Rocky Mountains, as well as prospective pipeline projects in these States. The influence of these factors on regional prices and price volatility is examined.

Released: September 11, 2007

This report responds to a request by Senator James Inhofe for analysis of a "25-by-25" proposal that combines a requirement that a 25-percent share of electricity sales be produced from renewable sources by 2025 with a requirement that a 25-percent share of liquid transportation fuel sales also be derived from renewable sources by 2025.

Released: August 6, 2007

This report responds to a request from Senators Joseph Lieberman and John McCain for an estimate of the economic impacts of S.280, the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007. S. 280 would establish a series of caps on greenhouse gas emissions starting in 2012 followed by increasingly stringent caps beginning in 2020, 2030 and 2050. The report provides estimates of the effects of S. 280 on energy markets and the economy through 2030.

Released: June 13, 2007

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Released: June 11, 2007

This analysis responds to a request from Senator Jeff Bingaman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requiring that 15 percent of U.S. electricity sales be derived from qualifying renewable energy resources.

Released: May 1, 2007

Requestor: Ms. Janice Mays, Chief Counsel, Committee on Ways & Means, U.S. House of Representatives This is a letter response requesting analysis of alternative extensions of the existing production tax credit (PTC) that would apply to wind generators only.

Released: March 27, 2007

This report responds to a July 13, 2006 request from Chairman Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested that EIA conduct a study of the impact that refinery shutdowns have had on the price of oil and gasoline.

Released: March 19, 2007

A presentation at the 2007 NPRA Annual Meeting focusing on trends in the diesel market. The presentation reviews the status of the ULSD program and highlights recent changes and trends in the distillate market that point towards continued strength in diesel prices relative to gasoline for some time.

Released: March 11, 2007

For the industrial sector, EIAs analysis and projection efforts generally have focused on the energy-intensive industriesfood, bulk chemicals, refining, glass, cement, steel, and aluminumwhere energy cost averages 4.8 percent of annual operating cost. Detailed process flows and energy intensity indicators have been developed for narrowly defined industry groups in the energy-intensive manufacturing sector. The non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries, where energy cost averages 1.9 percent of annual operating cost, previously have received somewhat less attention, however. In AEO2006, energy demand projections were provided for two broadly aggregated industry groups in the non-energy-intensive manufacturing sector: metal-based durables and other non-energy-intensive. In the AEO2006 projections, the two groups accounted for more than 50 percent of the projected increase in industrial natural gas consumption from 2004 to 2030.

Released: March 11, 2007

Residential and commercial electricity consumption for miscellaneous services has grown significantly in recent years and currently accounts for more electricity use than any single major end-use service in either sector (including space heating, space cooling, water heating, and lighting). In the residential sector, a proliferation of consumer electronics and information technology equipment has driven much of the growth. In the commercial sector, telecommunications and network equipment and new advances in medical imaging have contributed to recent growth in miscellaneous electricity use

Released: March 11, 2007

Energy consumption in the end-use demand sectorsresidential, commercial, industrial, and transportationgenerally shows only limited change when energy prices increase. Several factors that limit the sensitivity of end-use energy demand to price signals are common across the end-use sectors. For example, because energy generally is consumed in long-lived capital equipment, short-run consumer responses to changes in energy prices are limited to reductions in the use of energy services or, in a few cases, fuel switching; and because energy services affect such critical lifestyle areas as personal comfort, medical services, and travel, end-use consumers often are willing to absorb price increases rather than cut back on energy use, especially when they are uncertain whether price increases will be long-lasting. Manufacturers, on the other hand, often are able to pass along higher energy costs, especially in cases where energy inputs are a relatively minor component of production costs. In economic terms, short-run energy demand typically is inelastic, and long-run energy demand is less inelastic or moderately elastic at best.

Released: March 11, 2007

The loan guarantee program authorized in Title XVII of EPACT2005 is not included in AEO2007, because the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 requires congressional authorization of loan guarantees in an appropriations act before a Federal agency can make a binding loan guarantee agreement. As of October 2006, Congress had not provided the legislation necessary for DOE to implement the loan guarantee program (see Legislation and Regulations). In August 2006, however, DOE invited firms to submit pre applications for the first $2 billion in potential loan guarantees.

Released: March 11, 2007

The push by some States to restructure electricity markets progressed rapidly throughout the late 1990s. Although the energy crisis in California during 2000 and 2001 slowed the momentum, 19 States and the District of Columbia currently have some form of restructuring in place. In addition, Washington State, which has not restructured its electricity market, allows its largest industrial customers to choose their suppliers.

Released: February 22, 2007

EPACT2005 was signed into law by President Bush on August 8, 2005, and became Public Law 109-058. A number of provisions from EPACT2005 were included in the AEO2006 projections. Many others were not considered in AEO2006particularly, those that require funding appropriations or further specification by Federal agencies or Congress before implementation.

Released: February 22, 2007

This analysis was updated for AEO2009: Impact of Limitations on Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Federal Outer Continental Shelf The OCS is estimated to contain substantial resources of crude oil and natural gas; however, some areas of the OCS are subject to drilling restrictions. With energy prices rising over the past several years, there has been increased interest in the development of more domestic oil and natural gas supply, including OCS resources. In the past, Federal efforts to encourage exploration and development activities in the deep waters of the OCS have been limited primarily to regulations that would reduce royalty payments by lease holders. More recently, the States of Alaska and Virginia have asked the Federal Government to consider leasing in areas off their coastlines that are off limits as a result of actions by the President or Congress. In response, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior has included in its proposed 5-year leasing plan for 2007-2012 sales of one lease in the Mid-Atlantic area off the coastline of Virginia and two leases in the North Aleutian Basin area of Alaska. Development in both areas still would require lifting of the current ban on drilling.

Released: February 22, 2007

The AEO2007 reference case projects that an Alaska natural gas pipeline will go into operation in 2018, based on EIAs current understanding of the projects time line and economics. There is continuing debate, however, about the physical configuration and the ownership of the pipeline. In addition, the issue of Alaskas oil and natural gas production taxes has been raised, in the context of a current market environment characterized by rising construction costs and falling natural gas prices. If rates of return on investment by producers are reduced to unacceptable levels, or if the project faces significant delays, other sources of natural gas, such as unconventional natural gas production and LNG imports, could fulfill the demand that otherwise would be served by an Alaska pipeline.

Released: February 22, 2007

In May 2005, the EPA published two final rules aimed at reducing emissions from coal-fired power plants. CAIR [51] requires 28 States and the District of Columbia to reduce emissions of SO2 and/or NOx. CAMR [52] requires the States to reduce emissions of mercury from new and existing coal-fired plants.

Released: February 22, 2007

AEO2006 provided a review of renewable energy programs that were in effect in 23 States at the end of 2005 [37]. Since then (as of September 1, 2006), no new State programs have been adopted; however, several States with renewable energy programs in place have made changes as they have gained experience and identified areas for improvement. Revisions made over the past year range from clarification or modification of program definitions, such as which resources qualify, to substantial increases in targets for renewable electricity generation or capacity. The following paragraphs provide an overview of substantive changes in the design or implementation of State renewable energy programs.

Released: February 22, 2007

The AEO2007 reference case and alternative cases generally assume compliance with current laws and regulations affecting the energy sector. Some provisions of the U.S. Tax Code are scheduled to expire, or may be subject to adjustment, before the end of the projection period. In general, scheduled expirations and adjustments provided in legislation or regulations are assumed to occur, unless there is significant historical evidence to support an alternative assumption. This section examines the AEO2007 treatment of three provisions that could have significant impacts on U.S. energy markets: the gasoline excise tax, biofuel (ethanol and biodiesel) tax credits, and the PTC for electricity generation from certain renewable resources.

Released: February 22, 2007

Costs related to the construction industry have been volatile in recent years. Some of the volatility may be related to higher energy prices. Prices for iron and steel, cement, and concretecommodities used heavily in the construction of new energy projects rose sharply from 2004 to 2006, and shortages have been reported. How such price fluctuations may affect the cost or pace of new development in the energy industries is not known with any certainty, and short-term changes in commodity prices are not accounted for in the 25-year projections in AEO2007. Most projects in the energy industries require long planning and construction lead times, which can lessen the impacts of short-term trends.

Released: February 22, 2007

EPACT2005 requires that the use of renewable motor fuels be increased from the 2004 level of just over 4 billion gallons to a minimum of 7.5 billion gallons in 2012, after which the requirement grows at a rate equal to the growth of the gasoline pool. The law does not require that every gallon of gasoline or diesel fuel be blended with renewable fuels. Refiners are free to use renewable fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, in geographic regions and fuel formulations that make the most sense, as long as they meet the overall standard. Conventional gasoline and diesel can be blended with renewables without any change to the petroleum components, although fuels used in areas with air quality problems are likely to require adjustment to the base gasoline or diesel fuel if they are to be blended with renewables.

Released: February 22, 2007

Over the long term, the AEO2007 projection for world oil pricesdefined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refinersis similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

Released: February 22, 2007

In March 2006, NHTSA finalized CAFE standards requiring higher fuel economy performance for light-duty trucks in MY 2008 through 2011. Unlike the proposed CAFE standards discussed in AEO2006 [13], which would have established minimum fuel economy requirements by six footprint size classes, the final reformed CAFE standards specify a continuous mathematical function that determines minimum fuel economy requirements by vehicle footprint, defined as the wheelbase (the distance from the front axle to the center of the rear axle) times the average track width (the distance between the center lines of the tires) of the vehicle in square feet.

Released: February 22, 2007

Sustained high world oil prices and the passage of the EPACT2005 have encouraged the use of agriculture-based ethanol and biodiesel in the transportation sector; however, both the continued growth of the biofuels industry and the long-term market potential for biofuels depend on the resolution of critical issues that influence the supply of and demand for biofuels. For each of the major biofuelscorn-based ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, and biodieselresolution of technical, economic, and regulatory issues remains critical to further development of biofuels in the United States.

Released: February 22, 2007

On July 11, 2006, the EPA issued regulations covering emissions from stationary diesel engines  New Source Performance Standards that limit emissions of NOx, particulate matter, SO2, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons to the same levels required for nonroad diesel engines. The regulation affects new, modified, and reconstructed diesel engines. Beginning with MY 2007 [16], engine manufacturers must specify that new engines less than 3,000 horsepower meet the same emissions standard as nonroad diesel engines. For engines greater than 3,000 horsepower, the standard will be fully effective in 2011. Stationary diesel engine fuel will also be subject to the same standard as nonroad diesel engine fuel, which reduces the sulfur content of the fuel to 500 parts per million by mid-2007 and 15 parts per million by mid-2010.

Released: February 22, 2007

Most of the coal delivered to U.S. consumers is transported by railroads, which accounted for 64 percent of total domestic coal shipments in 2004. Trucks transported approximately 12 percent of the coal consumed in the United States in 2004, mainly in short hauls from mines in the East to nearby coal-fired electricity and industrial plants. A number of minemouth power plants in the West also use trucks to haul coal from adjacent mining operations. Other significant modes of coal transportation in 2004 included conveyor belt and slurry pipeline (12 percent) and water transport on inland waterways, the Great Lakes, and tidewater areas (9 percent).

Released: February 1, 2007

This analysis responds to a request from Senator Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy portfolio standard (CEPS).

Released: January 11, 2007

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in response to a September 27, 2006, request from Senators Bingaman, Landrieu, Murkowski, Specter, Salazar, and Lugar. The Senators requested that EIA assess the impacts of a proposal that would regulate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through an allowance cap-and-trade system.

Released: January 11, 2007

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in response to a September 27, 2006, request from Senators Bingaman, Landrieu, Murkowski, Specter, Salazar, and Lugar. The Senators requested that EIA assess the impacts of a proposal that would regulate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through an allowance cap-and-trade system. The program would set the cap to achieve a reduction in emissions relative to economic output, or greenhouse gas intensity.

Released: January 11, 2007

U.S. LNG imports - The Next Wave, is now available as a special supplement to the January 2007 issue of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports still account for less than three percent of total U.S. natural gas supplies, the global market is growing and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) foresees another wave of U.S. LNG import growth over the next 2 years. The supplement focuses on recent trends in global and U.S. LNG trade, and presents factors expected to influence LNG imports through 2008. EIA expects year-over-year increases in LNG imports of 34.5 and 38.5 percent in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

Released: December 14, 2006

The presentation "Understanding the Impacts of Incremental Gas Supply on the Flow Dynamics Across the North American Grid" was given at the Canadian Institute's BC LNG Forum on November 20, 2006. The presentation provides an overview of EIA's long-term natural gas projections under reference case and sensitivity cases from the Annual Energy Outlook 2006, with special emphasis on natural gas flows in the West Coast.

Released: September 27, 2006

LNG imports have grown substantially in recent years and they are expected to grow sevenfold by 2030. A review of the industry and infrastructure in the Northeast shows a region with limited indigenous production, so the region relies on flows into the area for most of the natural gas it consumes. A key source of supply is the LNG import terminal located in Everett, Massachusetts, which provides about 20 percent of regional supply. The United States needs additional LNG imports to meet future natural gas demand, however, building new LNG terminals in the Northeast or elsewhere involves a number of tradeoffs that will depend on energy markets and local acceptance.

Released: September 5, 2006

This report responds to a May 2, 2006 request from Congressmen Tom Udall and Tom Petri asking EIA to analyze the impacts of their legislation implementing a market-based allowance program to cap greenhouse gas emissions at 2009 levels.

Released: August 7, 2006

This presentation at the 2006 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference in North Falmouth, Massachusetts, outlined EIA's current forecast for U.S. crude oil, distillate, propane and gasoline supply, demand, and markets over the coming winter season.

Released: August 6, 2006

Feature article on the reasons for high oil prices.

Released: July 1, 2006

This supplement to the July 2006 ShortTerm Energy Outlook (STEO) examines the various factors that have contributed to this summers high gasoline prices and discusses how they may continue to impact markets over the next several months.

Released: June 30, 2006

This analysis responds to a request from Senator Norm Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy resources policy.

Released: March 20, 2006

The AEO2006 reference case assumes that States will comply with the requirements of the EPAs new CAMR regulation. CAMR is a two-phase program, with a Phase I cap of 38 tons of mercury emitted from all U.S. power plants in 2010 and a Phase II cap of 15 tons in 2018. Mercury emissions in the electricity generation sector in 2003 are estimated at around 50 tons. Generators have a variety of options to meet the mercury limits, such as: switching to coal with a lower mercury content, relying on flue gas desulfurization or selective catalytic reduction equipment to reduce mercury emissions, or installing conventional activated carbon injection (ACI) technology.

Released: March 8, 2006

This report responds to a request from Senator Ken Salazar that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze the impacts of implementing alternative variants of an emissions cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases (GHGs).

Released: February 1, 2006

AEO2005 provided a summary of 17 State renewable energy programs in existence as of December 31, 2003, in 15 States.

Released: February 1, 2006

On August 10, 2005, President Bush signed into law the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, and Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU)]. The act includes authorization for a multitude of transportation infrastructure projects, establishes highway safety provisions, provides for R&D, and includes a large number of miscellaneous provisions related to transportation, most of which are not included in AEO2006 because their energy impacts are vague or undefined.

Released: February 1, 2006

A key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representation of changing and developing technologies. How existing technologies will evolve, and what new technologies might emerge, cannot be known with certainty. The issue is of particular importance in AEO2006, the first AEO with projections out to 2030.

Released: February 1, 2006

World oil prices in the AEO2006 reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

Released: February 1, 2006

The AEO2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real GDP growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

Released: February 1, 2006

The State of California was given authority under CAAA90 to set emissions standards for light-duty vehicles that exceed Federal standards. In addition, other States that do not comply with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) set by the EPA under CAAA90 were given the option to adopt Californias light-duty vehicle emissions standards in order to achieve air quality compliance. CAAA90 specifically identifies hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and NOx as vehicle-related air pollutants that can be regulated. California has led the Nation in developing stricter vehicle emissions standards, and other States have adopted the California standards.

Released: February 1, 2006

In August 2005, NHTSA published proposed reforms to the structure of CAFE standards for light trucks and increases in light truck CAFE standards for model years 2008 through 2011 [8]. Under the proposed new structure, NHTSA would establish minimum fuel economy levels for six size categories defined by the vehicle footprint (wheelbase multiplied by track width), as summarized in Table 3. For model years 2008 through 2010, the new CAFE standards would provide manufacturers the option of complying with either the standards defined for each individual footprint category or a proposed average light truck fleet standard of 22.5 miles per gallon in 2008, 23.1 miles per gallon in 2009, and 23.5 miles per gallon in 2010. All light truck manufacturers would be required to meet an overall standard based on sales within each individual footprint category after model year 2010.

Released: February 1, 2006

A fundamental concern in projecting the future attributes of light-duty vehiclespassenger cars, sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and minivans is how to represent technological change and the market forces that drive it. There is always considerable uncertainty about the evolution of existing technologies, what new technologies might emerge, and how consumer preferences might influence the direction of change. Most of the new and emerging technologies expected to affect the performance and fuel use of light-duty vehicles over the next 25 years are represented in NEMS; however, the potential emergence of new, unforeseen technologies makes it impossible to address all the technology options that could come into play. The previous section of Issues in Focus discussed several potential technologies that currently are not represented in NEMS. This section discusses some of the key technologies represented in NEMS that are expected to be implemented in light-duty vehicles over the next 25 years.

Released: February 1, 2006

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), with the agreement of the Department, interpreted section 206(d) as calling for a listing of the types of renewable fuels available today, and a listing of those that will be available in the future based on the incentives provided in section 206(d). This report provides that information, and also provides information concerning renewable energy equipment and renewable energy consumption.

Released: February 1, 2006

On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative [80]. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. GHG intensitydefined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic outputby 18 percent over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

Released: February 1, 2006

On November 8, 2005, the EPA Administrator signed a direct final rule that will shift the retail compliance date for offering ULSD for highway use from September 1, 2006, to October 15, 2006. The change will allow more time for retail outlets and terminals to comply with the new 15 parts per million (ppm) sulfur standard, providing time for entities in the diesel fuel distribution system to flush higher sulfur fuel out of the system during the transition. Terminals will have until September 1, 2006, to complete their transitions to ULSD. The previous deadline was July 15, 2006.

Released: February 1, 2006

In 2005, the EPA finalized two regulations, CAIR and CAMR, that would reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants in the United States. Both CAIR and CAMR are included in the AEO2006 reference case. The EPA has received 11 petitions for reconsideration of CAIR and has provided an opportunity for public comment on reconsidering certain aspects of CAIR. Public comments were accepted until January 13, 2006. The EPA has also received 14 petitions for reconsideration of CAMR and is willing to reconsider certain aspects of the rule. Public comments were accepted for 45 days after publication of the reconsideration notice in the Federal Register. Several States and organizations have filed lawsuits against CAMR. The ultimate decision of the courts will have a significant impact on the implementation of CAMR.

Released: February 1, 2006

The U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R. 6 EH, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, on April 21, 2005, and the Senate passed H.R. 6 EAS on June 28, 2005. A conference committee was convened to resolve differences between the two bills, and a report was approved and issued on July 27, 2005. The House approved the conference report on July 28, 2005, and the Senate followed on July 29, 2005. EPACT2005 was signed into law by President Bush on August 8, 2005, and became Public Law 109-058.

Released: February 1, 2006

There have been some major changes in the U.S. refining industry recently, prompted in part by a significant decline in the quality of imported crude oil and by increasing restrictions on the quality of finished products. As a result, high-quality crudes, such as the WTI crude that serves as a benchmark for oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), have been trading at record premiums to the OPEC Basket price.

Released: February 1, 2006

By the end of 2005, 25 States had barred, or passed laws banning, any more than trace levels of MTBE in their gasoline supplies, and legislation to ban MTBE was pending in 4 others. Some State laws address only MTBE; others also address ethers such as ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) and tertiary amyl methyl ether (TAME). AEO2006 assumes that all State MTBE bans prohibit the use of all ethers for gasoline blending.

Released: February 1, 2006

Several States have recently enacted air emission regulations that will affect the electricity generation sector. The regulations govern emissions of NOx, SO2, CO2, and mercury from power plants.

Released: February 1, 2006

Higher prices for crude oil and refined petroleum products are opening the door for nonconventional liquids to displace petroleum in the traditional fuel supply mix. Growing world demand for diesel fuel is helping to jump-start the trend toward increasing production of nonconventional liquids, and technological advances are making the nonconventional alternatives more viable commercially. Those trends are reflected in the AEO2006 projections.

Released: December 14, 2005

This presentation focuses on the impacts Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma will have on oil markets (supply, demand, stocks, and imports) in the fourth quarter of 2005 and into 2006. The presentation looks examines whether oil markets are likely to return to much lower prices (the long term average) or continue the trend of high oil prices seen over the last couple of years.

Released: July 11, 2005

Explores some potential variations in light-duty vehicle demand to illustrate both the magnitude of demand changes and the length of time that it can take to affect demand when different levels of new-vehicle efficiencies and penetrations are assumed

Released: July 1, 2005

An analysis based on an extension of the ethanol supply curve in our model to allow for enough ethanol production to meet the requirements of S. 650. This analysis provides an update of the May 23, 2005 analysis, with revised ethanol production and cost assumptions.

Released: July 1, 2005

This report responds to a May 2, 2005, request by Chairman Pete Domenici and Ranking Member Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources for an assessment of the energy supply, consumption, import, price, and macroeconomic impacts of H.R. 6 EH, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on April 21, 2005.

Released: June 13, 2005

When will world oil production peak? EIA's analysis of this critical matter is discussed here.

Released: June 1, 2005

This report responds to a request from Senator Byron L. Dorgan, asking the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to undertake a quantitative analysis of a variety of energy efficiency policies using assumptions provided by the Alliance to Save Energy (ASE).

Released: April 1, 2005

On December 21, 2004, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze the impact of changes in coal transportation rates on projected levels of electric power sector energy use and emissions. Specifically, the STB requested an analysis of changes in national and regional coal consumption and emissions resulting from adjustments in railroad transportation rates for Wyoming's Powder River Basin (PRB) coal using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). However, because NEMS operates at a relatively aggregate regional level and does not represent the costs of transporting coal over specific rail lines, this analysis reports on the impacts of interregional changes in transportation rates from those used in the Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005) reference case.

Released: April 1, 2005

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, environmental and energy security concerns were addressed at the Federal level by several key pieces of energy legislation. Among them, the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA), P.L. 95-617, required regulated power utilities to purchase alternative electricity generation from qualified generating facilities, including small-scale renewable generators; and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), P.L. 95-618, part of the Energy Tax Act of 1978, provided a 10-percent Federal tax credit on new investment in capital-intensive wind and solar generation technologies.

Released: April 1, 2005

In the residential and commercial sectors, heating and cooling account for more than 40 percent of end-use energy demand. As a result, energy consumption in those sectors can vary significantly from year to year, depending on yearly average temperatures.

Released: April 1, 2005

In January 2004, after years of litigation in a case that pitted environmental groups and Attorneys General from 10 States against the U.S. Secretary of Energy, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reestablished the central air conditioner and heat pump standard originally set in January 2001 [3]. The Courts ruling, which struck down a May 2002 rollback of the 2001 standard to a 12 SEER, mandates that all new central air conditioners and heat pumps meet a 13 SEER standard by January 2006, requiring a 30-percent increase in efficiency relative to current law. The AEO2005 reference case incorporates the 13 SEER standard as mandated by the Courts ruling.

Released: April 1, 2005

This report provides EIA's analysis of those National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) energy policy recommendations that could be simulated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Released: February 18, 2005

A presentation to the National Association of State Energy Officials 2005 Energy Outlook Conference, in Washington, DC, on February 17, 2005, giving EIA's outlook for petroleum and natural gas supply, demand, and prices.

Released: February 9, 2005

A presentation to the 7th Annual International Airport Operations/Jet Fuel Conference, in Orlando, Florida, on February 3, 2005, giving EIA¿s outlook for petroleum supply and prices, with particular attention to jet fuel.

Released: February 1, 2005

World oil prices in AEO2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Released: February 1, 2005

Compared with the experience of the 1990s, rising energy prices in recent years have led to questions about expectations of growth in industrial output, particularly in energy-intensive industries. Given the higher price trends, a review of expected growth trends in selected industries was undertaken as part of the production of AEO2005. In addition, projections for the industrial value of shipments, which were based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system in AEO2004, are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) in AEO2005. The change in industrial classification leads to lower historical growth rates for many industrial sectors. The impacts of these two changes are highlighted in this section for two of the largest energy-consuming industries in the U.S. industrial sectorbulk chemicals and pulp and paper.

Released: February 1, 2005

In July 2002, California Assembly Bill 1493 (A.B. 1493) was signed into law. The law requires that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) develop and adopt, by January 1, 2005, greenhouse gas emission standards for light-duty vehicles that provide the maximum feasible reduction in emissions. In estimating the feasibility of the standard, CARB is required to consider cost-effectiveness, technological capability, economic impacts, and flexibility for manufacturers in meeting the standard.

Released: February 1, 2005

The U.S. fleet of light-duty vehicles consists of cars and light trucks, including minivans, sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and trucks with gross vehicle weight less than 8,500 pounds. The fuel economy of light-duty vehicles is regulated by the CAFE standards set by NHTSA. Currently, the CAFE standard is 27.5 miles per gallon (mpg) for cars and 20.7 mpg for light trucks. The most recent increase in the CAFE standard for cars was in 1990, and the most recent increase in the CAFE standard for light trucks was in 1996.

Released: February 1, 2005

On June 29, 2004, the EPA issued a comprehensive final rule regulating emissions from nonroad diesel engines and sulfur content in nonroad diesel fuel. The nonroad fuel market makes up more than 18 percent of the total distillate pool. The rule applies to new equipment covering a broad range of engine sizes, power ratings, and equipment types. There are currently about 6 million pieces of nonroad equipment operating in the United States, and more than 650,000 new units are sold each year.

Released: February 1, 2005

The 108th Congress proposed and debated a variety of bills addressing pollution control at electric power plants but did not pass any of them into law. In addition, the EPA currently is preparing two regulationsa proposed Clean Air Interstate Rule (pCAIR) and a Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR)to address emissions from coal-fired power plants. Several States also have taken legislative actions to limit pollutants from power plants in their jurisdictions. This section discusses three Congressional air pollution bills and the EPAs pCAIR and CAMR regulations.

Released: February 1, 2005

The restricted natural gas supply case provides an analysis of the energy-economic implications of a scenario in which future gas supply is significantly more constrained than assumed in the reference case. Future natural gas supply conditions could be constrained because of problems with the construction and operation of large new energy projects, and because the future rate of technological progress could be significantly lower than the historical rate. Although the restricted natural gas supply case represents a plausible set of constraints on future natural gas supply, it is not intended to represent what is likely to happen in the future.

Released: February 1, 2005

Several States have recently enacted air emission regulations that will affect the electricity generation sector. The regulations are intended to improve air quality in the States and assist them in complying with the revised 1997 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ground-level ozone and fine particulates. The affected States include Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Washington. The regulations govern emissions of NOx, SO2, CO2, and mercury from power plants.

Released: February 1, 2005

As of the end of 2003, 15 States had legislated programs to encourage the development of renewable energy for electricity generation. Of the 17 programs (two States have multiple programs), 9 are renewable portfolio standards (RPS), 4 are renewable energy mandates, and 4 are renewable energy goals.

Released: February 1, 2005

H.R. 4837, The Military Construction Appropriations and Emergency Hurricane Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2005 [19], was signed into law on October 13, 2004. The Act provides for construction to support the operations of the U.S. Armed Forces and for military family housing. It also provides funds to help citizens in Florida and elsewhere in the aftermath of multiple hurricanes and other natural disasters. In addition, it authorizes construction of an Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline.

Released: February 1, 2005

The Climate Stewardship Act of 2004 [64] would establish a system of tradable allowances to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The bill includes requirements for mandatory emissions reporting by covered entities and for voluntary reporting of emissions reduction activities by noncovered entities; a national greenhouse gas database and registry of reductions; and a research program on climate change and related activities.

Released: February 1, 2005

The American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 was signed into law on October 22, 2004. Most of the 650 pages of the Act are related to tax legislation. Provisions pertaining to energy are detailed in this analysis.

Released: February 1, 2005

The Working Families Tax Relief Act of 2004 was signed into law on October 13, 2004. Primarily, the Act reduces taxes for individuals and businesses. At least two provisions relate to energy: Depletion of marginal properties and qualified vehicles.

Released: February 1, 2005

As part of CAAA90, the EPA on February 26, 2004, issued a final rulethe National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP)to reduce emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from industrial, commercial, and institutional boilers and process heaters. The rule requires industrial boilers and process heaters to meet limits on HAP emissions to comply with a MACT floor level of control that is the minimum level such sources must meet to comply with the rule. The major HAPs to be reduced are hydrochloric acid, hydrofluoric acid, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, and nickel. The EPA predicts that the boiler MACT rule will reduce those HAP emissions from existing sources by about 59,000 tons per year in 2005.

Released: February 1, 2005

On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative [91]. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18 percent over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

Released: January 1, 2005

This analysis responds to a September 14, 2004, request from Chairmen James M. Inhofe and George V. Voinovich asking the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze the impacts of different approaches for removing mercury from coal-fired power plants.

Released: November 1, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: WPS Energy Services Meeting Worthington, OH November 16, 2004

Released: October 12, 2004

This presentation was given at the Oil Price Information Service National Supply Summit by Joanne Shore and John Hackworth. It covers the world oil market changes and the impact on domestic outlook for petroleum supply.

Released: August 10, 2004

Presented by: Doug Macintyre, Senior Oil Market Analyst Presented to: Council of State Governments Eastern Regional Conference Springfield, MA August 10, 2004

Released: August 1, 2004

Analysis of long term world oil supply.

Released: July 15, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality Committee on Energy and Commerce U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC July 15, 2004

Released: July 7, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Government Reform Committee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC July 7, 2004

Released: June 24, 2004

Southeastern Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners SEARUC 2004 June 14,2004 Presented by: Barbara Mariner-Volpe, Energy Information Administration

Released: June 15, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Committee on Energy and Natural Resources United States Senate Washington, DC June 15 , 2004

Released: May 1, 2004

Senator James M. Inhofe requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) undertake analysis of S.843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003, introduced by Senator Thomas Carper; S.366, the Clean Power Act of 2003, introduced by Senator James Jeffords; and S.1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003, introduced by Senator James M. Inhofe. The EIA received this request on March 19, 2004. This Service Report responds to his request.

Released: May 1, 2004

In October 2003, EIA published a review of the status of the methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) ban transition in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) that noted significant uncertainties in gasoline supply for those States for the summer of 2004. To obtain updated information, EIA spoke to major suppliers to the two States over the past several months as the petroleum industry began the switch from winter- to summer-grade gasoline.

Released: May 1, 2004

On May 11, 2004, Senator Landrieu asked EIA to evaluate SA.2028. This paper responds to that request, relying on the modeling methodology, data sources, and assumptions used to analyze the original bill, as extensively documented in EIA's June 2003 report.

Released: April 27, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: CSIS - US Saudi Arabian Business Council US - Saudi Relations and Global Energy Security April 27, 2004

Released: April 15, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: North American Energy Summit April 15, 2004

Released: March 24, 2004

Presented by: Mark Rodekohr Presented to: 14th International Conference on Liquefied Natural Gas Doha, Qatar March 23, 2004

Released: March 12, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Ohio Oil & Gas Association Conference March 12, 2004

Released: March 12, 2004

Presented to: Ohio Oil & Gas Association Conference, March 12, 2004 Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, Administrator, Energy Information Administration

Released: March 4, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate Washington, DC March 4, 2004

Released: March 1, 2004

This study analyzed the impact on future oil imports and expenditures of opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to petroleum development. High, low, and mean ANWR oil resource case projections were compared to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 reference case. The study also examined whether potential synergies exist in opening ANWR to petroleum development and the construction of an Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to the lower 48 States.

Released: March 1, 2004

Presentation by Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration NPRA Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 2004

Released: March 1, 2004

The four cases examined in this study have progressively greater impacts on overall natural gas consumption, prices, and supply. Compared to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 reference case, the no Alaska pipeline case has the least impact; the low liquefied natural gas case has more impact; the low unconventional gas recovery case has even more impact; and the combined case has the most impact.

Released: February 25, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Ohio Management and Restructuring Conference February 25, 2004

Released: February 23, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: National Governor's Association 2004 Winter Meeting February 23, 2004

Released: February 17, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: 9th Annual RFA National Ethanol Conference February 17, 2004

Released: February 12, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources Committee on Resources U.S. House of Representatives February 12, 2004

Released: February 1, 2004

This service report was undertaken at the February 2, 2004, request of Senator John Sununu to perform an assessment of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003. This report summarizes the CEB provisions that can be analyzed using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and have the potential to affect energy consumption, supply, and prices. The impacts are estimated by comparing the projections with the CEB provisions to the AEO2004 Reference Case.

Released: February 1, 2004

This special report was undertaken at the January 29, 2004, request of Senator John Sununu to perform an assessment of five specific tax provisions of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003.

Released: January 1, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Western States Petroleum Association, California Independent Petroleum Association - Petroleum Standards Advisory Committee

Released: December 5, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: CBI Gas Outlook 2004 Conference Houston, Texas December 5, 2003

Released: December 4, 2003

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy EIA Administrator Presented to: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Boston, Massachusetts December 4, 2003

Released: December 1, 2003

The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status & Outlook was undertaken to characterize the global LNG market and to examine recent trends and future prospects in the LNG market.

Released: November 19, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: CWC North American Natural Gas Conference Houston, Texas November 19, 2003

Released: November 5, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Oil & Money 2003 London, England November 5, 2003

Released: November 1, 2003

Presented to: Kansas Corporation Commission, October 28, 2003, Presented by: William Trapmann, Energy Information Administration

Released: October 24, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: SAIS/ESAI Seminar October 24, 2003

Released: October 1, 2003

In response to a Congressional request, EIA examined the progress being made to meet the bans on the use of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) being implemented in New York and Connecticut at the end of 2003.

Released: October 1, 2003

This paper describes the demand responses to changes in energy prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 versions of the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). It updates a similar paper completed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 version of the NEMS.

Released: September 24, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Gas Week Houston, Texas September 24, 2003

Released: September 17, 2003

North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) Annual Meeting September 17, 2003 Barbara Mariner-Volpe, Energy Information Administration

Released: September 15, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: National Association of State Energy Officials Austin, Texas September 15 , 2003

Released: September 1, 2003

On July 30, 2003, Senator James M. Inhofe requested the Energy Information Administration to undertake analyses of S.843, The Clean Air Planning Act of 2003, introduced by Senator Thomas Carper, and S.485, Clear Skies Act of 2003. Senator Inhofe also asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze S. 485 without the mercury provisions and S. 843 without the mercury and carbon dioxide provisions. This service report responds to both requests.

Released: September 1, 2003

This study responds to a July 31, 2003 request from Senator Byron L. Dorgan. The study is based primarily on analyses EIA has previously done for studies requested by Congress. It includes analysis of the Renewable Portfolio Standard, Renewable Fuels Standard, production in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge, the construction of an Alaskan Natural Gas pipeline, and various tax provisions.

Released: August 5, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Colorado Oil and Gas Association Denver, Colorado August 5, 2003

Released: August 1, 2003

Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of projections for the International Energy Outlook. The first volume of this report describes the SAGE methodology and provides an in-depth explanation of the equations of the model.

Released: July 3, 2003

Winter 2002/2003 status of working gas storage, natural gas market outlook.

Released: June 30, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Independent Petroleum Association of America Boca Raton, Florida June 20, 2003

Released: June 30, 2003

On June 10, 2003, Senator Pete Domenici, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested additional analysis of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), expected to be proposed as an amendment to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate.1 This request asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide additional results from two previously released EIA analyses2 of the proposed legislation, and to conduct further analyses with modified assumptions.

Released: June 26, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Natural Gas Summit Washington, DC June 26, 2003

Released: June 17, 2003

Presented by: William Trapmann Presented to: Infocast Conference Boston, Massachusetts June 17, 2003

Released: June 10, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: The Committee On Energy And Commerce U. S. House Of Representatives Washington, DC June 10, 2003

Released: June 1, 2003

On January 9, 2003, Senators John McCain and Joseph I. Lieberman introduced Senate Bill 139 (S.139), the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003, in the U.S. Senate. S.139 would require the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to promulgate regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On January 28, 2003, Senator James M. Inhofe requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) perform a comprehensive analysis of S.139. On April 2, 2003, Senators McCain and Lieberman, cosponsors of S.139, made a further request for analyses of their bill. This Service Report responds to both requests.

Released: June 1, 2003

On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate1. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

Released: May 19, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: IOGCC Conference Williamsburg, Virginia May 19, 2003

Released: May 4, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: The Committee On Energy And Commerce U. S. House Of Representatives Washington, DC May 4 2003

Released: May 1, 2003

On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate1. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

Released: April 1, 2003

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2003/04. It was given at the 2003 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Asheville, NC on August 11, 2003.

Released: April 1, 2003

The U.S. is beginning the summer 2003 driving season with lower gasoline inventories and higher prices than last year. Recovery from this tight gasoline market could be made more difficult by impending State bans on the blending of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) into gasoline that are scheduled to begin later this year.

Released: March 1, 2003

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels.

Released: February 25, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Committee On Energy And Natural Resources United States Senate Washington, DC February 25, 2003

Released: February 23, 2003

Prices, Storage, Consumption

Released: February 18, 2003

Presented by: Mary J. Hutzler, Acting EIA Administrator Washington, DC February 18, 2003

Released: October 1, 2002

Presented by: Joanne Shore Presented to: OPIS National Supply Summit San Antonio, Texas October 2002

Released: September 15, 2002

This paper responds to whether or not moving the start date of the Renewable fuel standard (RFS) from its currently proposed January 2004 to October 2004 would improve the chances of a smooth transition.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes the supply impacts of removing MTBE from gasoline.

Released: September 1, 2002

Summary of a series of 8 papers discussing the market impacts the Senate-passed fuels provisions of H.R.4, the Energy Policy Act of 2002.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes the inter-regional transportation issues and associated costs for increased distribution of renewable fuels with the assumption that ethanol will be used to meet the standards.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes renewable motor fuel production capacity with the assumption that ethanol will be used to meet the renewable fuels standard.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the impact on gasoline price and supply when additional ozone non-attainment areas come under the new 8-hour ozone standard.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper provides background on the 1-pound waiver and how It can affect gasoline volumes.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the potential effect/role of implementation of a national menu of fuels to address the proliferation of boutique fuels.

Released: August 21, 2002

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2002/03. It was given at the 2002 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Kennebunkport, ME on August 12, 2002.

Released: August 1, 2002

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2002/03. It was given at the 2002 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Kennebunkport, ME on August 12, 2002.

Released: July 1, 2002

This paper describes the methodology used to develop the NEMS estimate of projected aggregate energy efficiency and to describe the results of applying it to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case.

Released: July 1, 2002

Presented by: Mary J. Hutzler, Acting EIA Administrator Presented to: The House Committee On Resources Subcommittee On Energy And Mineral Resources Washington, DC July 16, 2002

Released: June 1, 2002

This paper presents delivered energy consumption and intensity projections for the industries included in the industrial sector of the National Energy Modeling System.

Released: April 1, 2002

Additional analysis of the impact of the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) ban provisions of S. 517.

Released: April 1, 2002

Presented by: Joanne Shore Presented to: API Annual Pipeline Conference Dallas, Texas April, 2002

Released: March 18, 2002

Presented by: John Cook Presented to: NPRA Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 18, 2002

Released: March 12, 2002

This service report addresses the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)/methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) provisions of S. 1766. The 'S. 1766' Case reflects provisions of S. 1766 including a renewable fuels standard (RFS) reaching five billion gallons by 2012, a complete phase-out of MTBE within four years, and the option for States to waive the oxygen requirement for reformulated gasoline (RFG).

Released: March 2, 2002

Presented by: James Kendall Presented to: Canadian Energy Research Institute Calgary, Alberta March 4, 2002

Released: March 1, 2002

Analyzes changes in gasoline markets, both here in the United States and abroad, that might affect the availability of gasoline imports between now and 2007. This includes changes in gasoline specifications both here and in other countries that supply imported gasoline, as well as growing demand in these countries.

Released: March 1, 2002

On December 20, 2001, Sen. Frank Murkowski, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested an analysis of selected portions of Senate Bill 1766 (S. 1766, the Energy Policy Act of 2002) and House Bill H.R. 4 (the Securing America's Future Energy Act of 2001)1. In response, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has prepared a series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where relevant, import dependence, and emissions. The analysis provided is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020.

Released: March 1, 2002

This service report addresses the renewable portfolio standard provision of S. 1766. At Senator Murkowski's request it also includes an analysis of the impacts of a renewable portfolio standard patterned after the one called for in S. 1766, but where the required share is based on a 20 percent RPS by 2020 rather than the 10 percent RPS called for in S. 1766.

Released: March 1, 2002

This report deals primarily with the Research and Development provisions of S. 1766, organized across four areas: energy efficiency, renewable energy, fossil energy, and nuclear energy. The provisions are assessed using the results from AEO2002 and other side cases, rather than a direct quantitative analysis.

Released: March 1, 2002

Sen. Frank Murkowski, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested an analysis of selected portions of Senate Bill 1766 (S. 1766, the Energy Policy Act of 2002), House Resolution 4 (the Securing America's Future Energy Act of 2001) and Senate Bill 517 (S. 517, the Energy Policy Act of 2002).1,2,3 In response, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has prepared a series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where feasible, import dependence, and emissions.

Released: March 1, 2002

This addendum provides projections on the increase in U.S. oil production from opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the decease in net petroleum imports, and the change in net petroleum expenditures across a range of cases.

Released: March 1, 2002

This assessment of the economic impacts of CAFÉ standards marks the first time EIA has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to NEMS in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.

Released: February 11, 2002

Presented to: Tithe 4th International Jet Fuel Conference February 11, 2002

Released: February 1, 2002

Presentation by William Trapmann to the North American Gas Storage Conference

Released: December 1, 2001

This service report describes the recent behavior of natural gas markets with respect to natural gas prices, their potential future behavior, the potential future supply contribution of liquefied natural gas and increased access to Federally restricted resources, and the need for improved natural gas data.

Released: October 1, 2001

This analysis responds to a request from Senators Bob Smith, George Voinovich, and Sam Brownback to examine the costs of specific multi-emission reduction strategies

Released: October 1, 2001

This analysis responds to a request of Senators James M. Jeffords and Joseph I. Lieberman. This report describes the impacts of technology improvements and other market-based opportunities on the costs of emissions reductions from electricity generators, including nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide.

Released: August 1, 2001

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2001/02. It was given by Doug MacIntyre at the 2001 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Wilmington, DE on August 13, 2001.

Released: July 1, 2001

This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts on energy consumers and producers of coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide at U.S. power plants.

Released: July 1, 2001

At the request of the Subcommittee, EIA prepared an initial report that focused on the impacts of reducing power sector NOx, SO2, andCO2 emissions.2 The current report extends the earlier analysis to add the impacts of reducing power sector Hg emissions and introducing RPS requirements.

Released: July 1, 2001

This chapter discusses the projected impacts of new emission caps on nitrogen oxides (Nox), Sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2), and mercury (Hg) and the adoption of a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) on the U.S. markets for those fuels, including industry employment levels

Released: June 14, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas Presented to: Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs United States House of Representatives June 14, 2001

Released: June 14, 2001

Statement of John Cook Before the Committee on Government Reform Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs U.S. House of Representatives June 14, 2001

Released: June 1, 2001

This report addresses the potential impact of rotating electrical outages on petroleum product and natural gas supply in California.

Released: May 3, 2001

Presented by: Mary J. Hutzler, Director Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Presented to: Committee on Ways and Means Subcommittee On Select Revenue Measures May 3, 2001

Released: May 1, 2001

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy. Pages

Released: May 1, 2001

In an earlier analysis completed in response to a request received from Representative David McIntosh, Chairman of the Subcommittee on National Economic Growth, Natural Resources, and Regulatory Affairs, the Energy Information Administration analyzed the impacts of power sector caps on nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and carbon dioxide emissions, assuming a policy instrument patterned after the sulfur dioxide allowance program created in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This paper compares the results of that work with the results of an analysis that assumes the use of a dynamic generation performance standard as an instrument for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Released: May 1, 2001

This report discusses the implications of the new regulations for vehicle fuel efficiency and examines the technology, production, distribution, and cost implications of supplying diesel fuel to meet the new standards.

Released: April 25, 2001

On April 25, Dr. John Cook, Petroleum Division Director in the Office of Oil and Gas, testified on West Coast gasoline prices before the Senate Subcommittee on Consumer Affairs , Foreign Commerce, and Tourism. This Subcommittee is under the jurisdiction of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. Dr. Cook provided the Subcommittee with information on the current gasoline price situation as well as identified unique characteristics of the West Coast gasoline market that help make its gasoline prices generally higher than other regions of the United States.

Released: April 1, 2001

The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the causes of MTBE price increases in 2000.

Released: April 1, 2001

A brief analysis of energy price impacts on the U.S. economy.

Released: March 30, 2001

Summary Statement of John Cook Director Petroleum Division Energy Information Administration Department of Energy before the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality Committee on Energy and Commerce U.S. House of Representatives March 30, 2001

Released: March 28, 2001

Statement of Beth Campbell, Energy Information Administration; Department of Energy Before the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality; Committee on Energy and Commerce U. S. House of Representatives - Hearing on Natural Gas February 28, 2001

Released: March 22, 2001

Presented by: William Trapmann March 22, 2001

Released: March 21, 2001

Presented by: Mary J. Hutzler, Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Presented to: Senate Energy And Natural Resources Committee United States Senate March 21, 2001

Released: March 19, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas Presented to: NPRA Annual Meeting March 19, 2001

Released: March 5, 2001

Statement of John S. Cook Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration before the House Committee on Ways and Means Subcommittee on Oversight; United States House of Representatives hearing on federal tax laws; March 5, 2001

Released: February 28, 2001

Statement of Beth Campbell, Energy Information Administration; Department of Energy Before the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality; Committee on Energy and Commerce U. S. House of Representatives - Hearing on Natural Gas February 28, 2001

Released: February 1, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas February 26, 2001

Released: February 1, 2001

Statement of Mary J. Hutzler, Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Before the House Committee on Science United States House of Representatives Hearing on The Nation's Energy Future: Role of Renewable Energy And Energy Efficiency

Released: February 1, 2001

Assesses the extent of interruptible natural gas contracts and their effect on heating oil demand in the Northeast.

Released: February 1, 2001

Presented by Barbara Mariner-Volpe to the Bangladesh Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources - February 2001

Released: January 26, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas Presented to: National Governors' Association January 26, 2001

Released: January 24, 2001

Presented by: Barbara Mariner-Volpe January 24, 2001

Released: January 22, 2001

Presented by: Aileen Alex January 22, 2001

Released: January 12, 2001

Presented by: Mark J. Mazur, Acting EIA Administrator January 12, 2001

Released: December 18, 2000

Presentation to the National Conference of State Legislators by Mark Masur, Acting Administrator

Released: December 12, 2000

Statement of Mark J. Mazur Acting Administrator Energy Information Administration Department of Energy before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources U.S. Senate December 12, 2000

Released: November 1, 2000

This paper describes the methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to represent unconventional gas technologies and their impacts on projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

Released: October 1, 2000

This article is based on the Winter Fuels Outlook published in the 4th Quarter Short-Term Energy Outlook and discusses the supply and demand outlook from October 2000 through March 2001.

Released: September 28, 2000

Statement of Mark J. Mazur Acting Administrator Energy Information Administration Before the Committee on Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power U.S. House of Representatives September 28, 2000

Released: September 15, 2000

Presented by: Joanne Shore Presented to: PPMCSA Annual Meeting and Trade Show September 15, 2000

Released: September 7, 2000

Presented by: Mark Rodekohr Presented to: The New England Council & Governor's Conference Boston, MA September 7, 2000

Released: September 7, 2000

Presentation by Joanne Shore, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: September 7, 2000

Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: September 1, 2000

Presentation by Douglas MacIntyre, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: September 1, 2000

Statement of Mark J. Mazur Acting Administrator Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources U.S. Senate September 26, 2000

Released: August 21, 2000

Presented by: Barbara Mariner-Volpe Presented to: State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference Wrightsville Beach, NC August 21, 2000

Released: August 11, 2000

Presented by: Neal Davis Presented to: Valve Manufacturers Association of America Chicago, IL August 10-11, 2000

Released: July 27, 2000

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division; EIA's Office of Oil and Gas July 27, 2000

Released: July 26, 2000

Statement of Mary J. Hutzler Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Energy Information Administration; Department of Energy before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources; U.S. Senate July 26, 2000

Released: July 13, 2000

Statement of John Cook, Director Petroleum Division; Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources United States Senate July 13, 2000

Released: July 1, 2000

Analysis of the potential impacts of accelerated depletion on domestic oil and natural gas prices and production.

Released: June 29, 2000

Statement of John Cook, Director Petroleum Division; Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Governmental Affairs U.S. Senate June 29, 2000

Released: May 25, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: United States Senate Washington, DC May 25, 2000

Released: May 24, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC May 24, 2000

Released: May 11, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator San Diego, CA May 11, 2000

Released: May 1, 2000

In response to the President's request, this study examines how the distillate fuel oil market (and related energy markets) in the Northeast behaved in the winter of 1999-2000, explains the role played by residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity generation sector consumers in distillate fuel oil markets and describes how that role is influenced by the structure of the energy markets in the Northeast

Released: May 1, 2000

EIA received a letter (dated March 10, 2000) from Senator Frank H. Murkowski as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requesting an EIA Service Report with plausible scenarios for ANWR supply development consistent with the most recent U.S. Geological Survey resource assessments. This service report is prepared in response to the request of Senator Murkowski. It focuses on the ANWR coastal plain, a region currently restricted from exploration and development, and updates EIA's 1987 ANWR assessment.

Released: April 18, 2000

Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: April 7, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Providence, RI April 7, 2000

Released: April 1, 2000

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division EIA's Office of Oil and Gas April 18, 2000

Released: April 1, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator American Association of Petroleum Geologists by New Orleans, Louisiana April 18, 2000

Released: April 1, 2000

This paper presents a midterm forecast for biomass ethanol production under three different technology cases for the period 2000 to 2020, based on projections developed from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. An overview of cellulose conversion technology and various feedstock options and a brief history of ethanol usage in the United States are also presented.

Released: April 1, 2000

Analysis of the potential impacts of Climate Change Technology Initiative, relative to the baseline energy projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

Released: March 24, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC March 24, 2000

Released: February 24, 2000

Statement of John Cook, Petroleum Division Director, Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate February 24, 2000

Released: February 2, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC February 2, 2000

Released: January 1, 2000

This paper examines the components of past gains in productivity, including regional shifts, the exit of less productive producers, and technological progress Future prospects for continuing productivity gains at sustained, but lower, rates of improvement are discussed.

Released: October 5, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC October 5, 1999

Released: October 1, 1999

The blending of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) into motor gasoline has increased dramatically since it was first produced 20 years ago. MTBE usage grew in the early 1980's in response to octane demand resulting initially from the phaseout of lead from gasoline and later from rising demand for premium gasoline. The oxygenated gasoline program stimulated an increase in MTBE production between 1990 and 1994. MTBE demand increased from 83,000 in 1990 to 161,000 barrels per day in 1994. The reformulated gasoline (RFG) program provided a further boost to oxygenate blending. The MTBE contained in motor gasoline increased to 269,000 barrels per day by 1997.

Released: September 1, 1999

The past few years have witnessed unusually warm weather, as evidenced by both mild winters and hot summers. The analysis shows that the 30-year norms--the basis of weather-related energy demand projections--do not reflect the warming trend or its regional and seasonal patterns.

Released: September 1, 1999

This report describes EIA's use of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to evaluate the effects of the Administration's restructuring proposal using the parameter settings and assumptions from the Policy Office Electricity Modeling System (POEMS) analysis.

Released: August 5, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC August 5, 1999

Released: August 1, 1999

This article presents projections of demand and the market price premium for Phase 2 RFG in the year 2000. The projections in this article are based on forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, which is published monthly by the Energy Information Administration.

Released: August 1, 1999

Final issue of this report. Presents a series of eight papers, which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. (archived versions)

Released: July 21, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners Staff Subcommittee on Gas San Francisco, CA July 21, 1999

Released: July 1, 1999

This report describes EIA's analysis of the impacts of an early start, using the same methodology as in Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, with only those changes in assumptions caused by the early start date.

Released: June 24, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC June 24, 1999

Released: June 1, 1999

This paper provides a mid-term framework for examining some of the issues confronting the coal industry based on projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1999.

Released: June 1, 1999

Section 107(d) of the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990 (the Act), required States to identify all areas that do not meet the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for ozone, and directed EPA to designate these areas as ozone nonattainment areas. Section 181 of the Act required EPA to classify each area as a marginal, moderate, serious, severe or extreme ozone nonattainment area. EPA classified all areas that were designated as in nonattainment for ozone at the time of the enactment of the 1990 Amendments, except for certain "nonclassifiable" areas (56 FR 56694, November 6, 1991).

Released: April 21, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC April 21, 1999

Released: April 19, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Houston, TX April 19, 1999

Released: April 14, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC April 14, 1999

Released: April 1, 1999

Analysis of the impact of specific policies on the reduction of carbon emissions and their impact on U.S. energy use and prices in the 2008-2012 time frame. Also, analyzes the impact of the President's Climate Change Technology Initiative, as defined for the 2000 budget, on reducing carbon emissions from the levels forecast in the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 reference case.

Released: March 26, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC March 26, 1999