Reference case updates

AEO2011 Early Release Reference case updated, April 2011

The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case that is included as part of the complete report released in April, 2011 has been updated from the Reference case that was released as part of the AEO2011 Early Release Overview in December, 2010. The Reference case was updated to incorporate modeling changes and reflect new legislation or regulation that was not available when the Early Release Overview version of the Reference case was published. Major changes made in the Reference include:

• Adds 30% ITC to fuel cells with 2016 expiration date
• Retired Oyster Creek nuclear plant at end of 2019
• Revised amount of wind builds in 2012 (7 rather than 10 gigawatts)
• Benchmarked oil production to January STEO (including revision to undiscovered oil drilling schedules)
• Delayed additional deep water offshore projects
• Forced economic life to be 43 years for coalbed methane play that was deciding on a 16-year life
• Updates carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery
• Updated natural gas reserve reporting;
• Updated 2011 cellulosic ethanol subsidy
• Updated ethanol tax credit, biodiesel tax credit, and ethanol tariff through 2011
• Allowed E15 in model-year 2001-2006 light-duty vehicles (in addition to 2007-present)
• Updated battery cost curve
• Updated electric vehicle, hybrid electric, microhybrids, and plug-in electric vehicles sales
• Updated high technology assumptions
• Updated energy-related carbon dioxide historical data and biomass carbon dioxide factors based on upcoming EIA data reports

Future analyses completed using the AEO2011 Reference case will start from the version of the Reference case released with the complete report.