Changes from Previous AEO

Key updates that were made for the AEO2011 Reference case include:

• Significant update of the technically recoverable U.S. shale gas resources, more than doubling the volume of shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010, and also added new shale oil resources
• Revision of the methodology for determining natural gas prices to better reflect a lessening of the influence of oil prices on natural gas prices, in part because of the increase in shale gas supply and improvements in natural gas extraction technologies
• Update of the data and assumptions for off shore oil and gas production, pushing out the start of production for a number of projects as a result of the six-month drilling moratoria, and delaying Atlantic and Pacific off shore leasing beyond 2017
• Increase of the limit for blending ethanol into gasoline for approved vehicles from 10 percent to 15 percent, as a result of the waiver granted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 2010
• Expanded the number of electricity regions from 13 to 22, allowing better regional representation of market structure and power flow
• Update of the costs for new power plants
• Update of the costs and sizes of electric and plug-in hybrid electric batteries
• Downward revision of light-duty vehicle travel demand due to the adoption of new estimation technique
• Incorporation of California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which reduces the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel fuels in that State by 10 percent from 2012 through 2020
• Incorporation of changes in environmental rules at the State level. For example, California increased its RPS target from 20 percent to 33 percent by 2020