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Energy Demand Analysis Analysis Reports and Papers related to energy demand (most current first)
Annual Energy Outlook - Energy Demand, Forecasts Comparison Section Forecast Analysis - US annual projections of energy demand to 2035 by US region. Annual Energy Outlook Supporting Reports- Assumptions for Residential Demand Module, Commercial Demand Module , Industrial Demand Module, Transportation Demand Module NEMS: An Overview 2009 (Residential Demand Module) (also available in printer-friendly version) National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation Industrial Demand Module , Transportation Demand Module, Residential Demand Module , Commercial Demand Module , Integrating Module pages: 231, AEO released: December 2010 (supporting reports released thereafter), periodicity: Yearly, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284 International Energy Outlook - Transportation Sector Energy Consumption Forecast Analysis - International projections of coal to 2030 by region. pages: 8, released: July 2010, periodicity: Yearly, contact: Linda Doman (202)586-1041 Energy Market and Economic Impacts of the American Power Act of 2010 - (also available in printer-friendly version) Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request from Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman for an analysis of the American Power Act of 2010 (APA). APA, as released by Senators Kerry and Lieberman on May 12, 2010, regulates emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, efficiency programs, and other economic incentives. Errata - as of July 20, 2010 Study Table Results Browse data results Regional and supplemental tables available here also. Data can be charted and downloaded. Excel Spreadsheets: Reference Reference with High Natural Gas Resource Basic Zero Bank High Natural Gas Resource High Cost No International Offsets No International Offsets / Limited Alternatives pages: 23, released: July 2010, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025 Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007 - (also available printer-friendly version) Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request from Senators Lieberman and Warner for an analysis of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007. S.2191 is a complex bill regulating emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, energy efficiency programs, and economic incentives. This analysis focuses on the impacts of the greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program established under Title I of S. 2191. Excel Spreadsheets: Reference S.2191 Core S.2191 Limited Alternatives S.2191 No International S.2191 Limited/No International S.2191 High Cost S.1766 Update pages: 74, released: April 2008, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025 Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 1766, the Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007 - (also available printer-friendly version) Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request from Senators Bingaman and Specter for an analysis of the impacts of S. 1766, the Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007. S. 1766 establishes a mandatory greenhouse Gas (GHG) allowance program to maintain covered emissions at approximately 2006 levels in 2020, 1990 levels in 2030, and at least 60 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Excel Spreadsheets: Reference Reference Case with High Technology S.1766 Core S.1766 Half CCS Bonus S.1766 High Technology S.1766 High Technology Plus Policies S.1766 Limited Alternatives S.1766 Plus Policies pages: 59, released: January 2008, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025 Energy and Economic Impacts of H.R.5049, the Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy Act - (also available in printer-friendly version) Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a May 2, 2006 request from Congressmen Tom Udall and Tom Petri asking EIA to analyze the impacts of their legislation implementing a market-based allowance program to cap greenhouse gas emissions at 2009 levels. The legislation, introduced March 29, 2006, limits the potential economic impact through the sale of additional allowances at a safety-valve price, an allowance allocation program, and allowance credits for carbon sequestration projects. pages: 41, released: September 2006, periodicity: One-time, contact Ronald Earley (202)586-1398 Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy - (also available in printer-friendly version) Forcast Analysis - This report responds to a December 17, 2004 request by Senator Jeff Bingaman asking EIA to assess the impacts of the recommendations made by the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) in its December 2004 report entitled Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America’s Energy Challenges. pages: 52, released: April 2005, periodicity: One-time, contact: Michael Mellish (202)586-2136 Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models - (also available in printer-friendly version) Forecast Analysis - This paper describes the responses of the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) versions of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential and Commercial Demand Models to changes in energy prices, updating the results reported previously for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99) versions of the models.1 Since that report, several changes have been made to the buildings models and their technology data. pages: 12, released: October 2003, periodicity: One-time, contact: Steven Wade (202)586-1678 Measuring Changes in Energy Efficiency for the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - (also available in printer-friendly version) Forecast Analysis - This paper describes the construction of an aggregate energy efficiency index based on projections of sectoral and subsector energy consumption and subsector-specific energy service indicators. The results are compared with the ratio of energy to real gross domestic product, which typically is presented as a measure of energy intensity. pages: 17, released: July 2002, periodicity: One-time, contact: Steven Wade (202)586-1678 Delivered Energy Consumption Projections by Industry in the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - (also available in printer-friendly version) Forecast Analysis - This paper presents delivered energy consumption and intensity projections for the industries included in the industrial sector of the National Energy Modeling System. Delivered energy consumption for the industrial sector as a whole is routinely reported in the Annual Energy Outlook, but detailed projections for each of the groupings within the industrial sector are not generally discussed. The detailed projections in this paper are grouped into three categories: energy-intensive manufacturing sectors, non-intensive manufacturing sectors, and non-manufacturing industries. The results for the three groups are discussed, as well as results for the industries within each group. pages: 37, released: June 2002, periodicity: One-time, contact: Brian Unruh (202)586-1344 Analysis of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards for Light Trucks and Increased Alternative Fuel Use - (also available in printer-friendly version ) Forecast Analysis - This report was prepared with a series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where feasible, import dependence, and emissions. The analysis provided is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand and prices through 2020. pages: 65, released: March 2002, periodicity: One-time, contact: John Maples (202)586-1757 Addendum: Methodology for the Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stricter CAFE Standards - (also available in printer-friendly version ) Summary: Analysis of Selected Transportation Fuel Issues Associated with Proposed Energy Legislation - (also available in printer-friendly version ) Analysis of Efficiency Standards for Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, and Other Products (S. 1766 Section 921-929, H.R. 4 Section 124, 142, and 143) - (also available in printer-friendly version ) Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senator Frank Murkowski on December 20, 2001 to analyze the provisions of H.R. 4 and S. 1766 that pertain to efficiency standards in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The estimated effects of the provisions are analyzed quantitatively where feasible. Qualitative discussion is provided for the remaining standards-related provisions. pages: 23, released: February 2002, periodicity: One-time, contact: John Cymbalsky (202)586-4815 Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants With Advanced Technology Scenarios - (also available in printer-friendly version , Errata ) Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators James Jeffords and Joseph Lieberman on May 17, 2001 to analyze the impacts of technology improvements and other market-based opportunities on the cost of emissions reductions from electricity generators, including nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide. pages: 228, released: October 2001, periodicity: One-time, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284 Chapter 4: Fuel Market and Macroeconomic Impacts - Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants: Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Dioxide, and Mercury and a Renewable Portfolio Standard - (also available in printer-friendly version ), Errata Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts of imposing caps on power sector emissions of nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide with and without a renewable portfolio standard. pages: 26, released: July 2001, periodicity: One-time, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284 Energy Price Impacts on the U.S. Economy Forecast Analysis - This paper uses a Q&A format to address selected issues regarding the impact of energy prices on the U.S. economy. For example, how the share of energy in the economy has changed since the 1970s; a historical perspective on the relationship between energy prices and economic growth; the impact of recent events on near term economic growth; the economy's reaction to volatile energy prices; and the impact of oil price movements on other countries. released: April 2001, periodicity: One-time, contact: Ronald Earley (202)586-1398 Modeling Distributed Electricity Generation in the NEMS Buildings Models - (also available in printer-friendly version ) Forecast Analysis - Distributed generation refers to the production of electricity in a decentralized facility, such as an office building. Currently, the building modules in the National Energy Modeling System characterize several distributed generation technologies: conventional oil or gas engine generation, combustion turbine technologies, and newer, still developing technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV), fuel cells, and microturbines. This paper describes the modeling techniques, assumptions, and results for the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 reference case. In addition, a series of alternative distributed generation simulations are described and key results presented. pages: 281, released: December 2000, periodicity: One-time, contact: Erin Boedecker (202)586-4791 Chapter 4: Fuel Market and Macroeconomic Impacts - Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Power Plants: Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Carbon Dioxide - (also available in printer-friendly version) Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts on energy consumers and producers of coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide at U.S. power plants. pages: 22, released: August 2000, periodicity: One-time, contact: Erin Boedecker (202)586-4791 Outlook for Biomass Ethanol Production and Demand - (also available in printer-friendly version) Forecast Analysis - The technology used to produce ethanol from corn is mature and is not likely to experience significant cost reductions in the future. The ability to produce ethanol from low-cost biomass will be key to making it competitive as a gasoline additive. If Department of Energy goals are met, the cost of producing ethanol could be reduced by as much as 60 cents per gallon by 2015 with cellulosic conversion technology. This paper presents a midterm forecast for biomass ethanol production under three different technology cases for the period 2000 to 2020, based on projections developed with the Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System. An overview of cellulose conversion technology and various feedstock options and a brief history of ethanol usage in the United States are also presented. pages: 14, released: July 2000, periodicity: One-time, contact: Zia Haq (202)586-2869 The Northeast Heating Fuel Market: Assessment and Options - (also available in printer-friendly version ) Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Secretary of Energy, Bill Richardson on March 21, 2000 to analyze the feasibility and impact of converting factories and other major users of heating oil to different fuels and discusses other options that may mitigate future heating oil supply problems in the Northeast. pages: 92, released: May 2000, periodicity: One-time, contact: John Conti (202)586-2222 Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1999 - Sectoral Pricing in a Restructured Electricity Market - (also available in printer-friendly version ) Forecast Analysis - Historically, electricity prices have not been determined by the competing interests of suppliers and consumers in open markets. Rather, State regulators have set prices by reviewing the costs incurred by the utilities under their jurisdiction, using both equity and economic efficiency as criteria to determine how costs should be allocated to different customer groups. pages: 109, released: August 1999, periodicity: One-time, contact: Alan Beamon (202)586-2025 Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1999 - Modeling Technology Learning in the National Energy Modeling System - (also available in printer-friendly version ) Forecast Analysis - This paper summarizes the approaches used to represent and treat technological progress and learning-by-doing in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Because technologies and their adoption are represented somewhat differently in the various NEMS modules, based on the markets they represent, the treatment of technological learning in NEMS also differs by sector. pages: 109, released: August 1999, periodicity: N/A, contact: Andy Kydes (202)586-2222 Chapter 2: Timing of U.S. Carbon Reductions - Analysis of the Impacts of an Early Start for Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol - (also available in printer-friendly version ) Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr., and George Brown, Jr., on March 2, 1999 to describe the Energy Information Administration’s analysis of the impacts of an early start on Greenhouse Gas Control using the same methodology as in Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, with only those changes in assumptions caused by an early start date. pages: 88, released: July 1999, periodicity: N/A, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284 Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative - (also available in printer-friendly version ), Chapter 2: CCTI Tax Initiative, Chapter 3: Research, Development, and Deployment, Chapter 4: Energy-Efficient Appliances and Equipment Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. and George Brown, Jr., on December 16, 1998 and March 2, 1999 to analyze the impact of the President's Climate Change Technology Initiative, as defined for the 2000 budget, on carbon emissions and U.S. energy use and prices in the 2008-2012 time frame relative to the reference case projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1999. pages: 101, released: April 1999, periodicity: N/A, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284 Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets & Economic Activity Chapter 3. End-Use Energy Demand - Residential & Commercial, Industrial &Transportation - (also available in printer-friendly version ) released: October 1998, Periodicity: N/A, Contact: John Cymbalsky (202) 586-4815 Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 - Modeling Technological Change and Diffusion in the Buildings Sector Forecast Analysis - This paper gives an overview of the way in which technological change and market diffusion are represented in the buildings sector (residential and commercial energy demand sectors) of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). released: July 1998, Periodicity: N/A, Contact: Andy Kydes (202) 586-2222 Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 - The Importance of Location and Housing Type with Respect to Future Residential Sector Energy Use Forecast Analysis - This paper examines two important factors affecting energy consumption in households, namely, the type of future additions to the housing stock and their location. The reference case developed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) projects a number of changes in housing trends and, as a result, residential energy consumption between 1995 and 2020. released: July 1998, Periodicity: N/A, Contact: John Cymbalsky (202) 586-4815 more Energy Demand Sector Analysis...

Home > Forecasts & Analysis > Energy Demand Analysis Reports

Energy Demand Analysis Analysis Reports and Papers related to energy demand (most current first)

Annual Energy Outlook - Energy Demand, Forecasts Comparison Section
Forecast Analysis - US annual projections of energy demand to 2035 by US region.
Annual Energy Outlook Supporting Reports-
Assumptions for Residential Demand Module, Commercial Demand Module , Industrial Demand Module, Transportation Demand Module
NEMS: An Overview 2009 (Residential Demand Module) (also available in printer-friendly version)
National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation Industrial Demand Module , Transportation Demand Module, Residential Demand Module , Commercial Demand Module , Integrating Module
pages: 231, AEO released: December 2010 (supporting reports released thereafter), periodicity: Yearly, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284

International Energy Outlook - Transportation Sector Energy Consumption
Forecast Analysis - International projections of coal to 2030 by region.
pages: 8, released: July 2010, periodicity: Yearly, contact: Linda Doman (202)586-1041

Energy Market and Economic Impacts of the American Power Act of 2010 - (also available in printer-friendly version)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request from Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman for an analysis of the American Power Act of 2010 (APA). APA, as released by Senators Kerry and Lieberman on May 12, 2010, regulates emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, efficiency programs, and other economic incentives.
Errata - as of July 20, 2010
Study Table Results Browse data results Regional and supplemental tables available here also. Data can be charted and downloaded.
Excel Spreadsheets:
   Reference
   Reference with High Natural Gas Resource
   Basic
   Zero Bank
   High Natural Gas Resource
   High Cost
   No International Offsets
   No International Offsets / Limited Alternatives
pages: 23, released: July 2010, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007 - (also available printer-friendly version)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request from Senators Lieberman and Warner for an analysis of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007. S.2191 is a complex bill regulating emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, energy efficiency programs, and economic incentives. This analysis focuses on the impacts of the greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program established under Title I of S. 2191.
Excel Spreadsheets:
   Reference
   S.2191 Core
   S.2191 Limited Alternatives
   S.2191 No International
   S.2191 Limited/No International
   S.2191 High Cost
   S.1766 Update
pages: 74, released: April 2008, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 1766, the Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007 - (also available printer-friendly version)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request from Senators Bingaman and Specter for an analysis of the impacts of S. 1766, the Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007. S. 1766 establishes a mandatory greenhouse Gas (GHG) allowance program to maintain covered emissions at approximately 2006 levels in 2020, 1990 levels in 2030, and at least 60 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
Excel Spreadsheets:
   Reference
   Reference Case with High Technology
   S.1766 Core
   S.1766 Half CCS Bonus
   S.1766 High Technology
   S.1766 High Technology Plus Policies
   S.1766 Limited Alternatives
   S.1766 Plus Policies
pages: 59, released: January 2008, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Energy and Economic Impacts of H.R.5049, the Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy Act - (also available in printer-friendly version)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a May 2, 2006 request from Congressmen Tom Udall and Tom Petri asking EIA to analyze the impacts of their legislation implementing a market-based allowance program to cap greenhouse gas emissions at 2009 levels. The legislation, introduced March 29, 2006, limits the potential economic impact through the sale of additional allowances at a safety-valve price, an allowance allocation program, and allowance credits for carbon sequestration projects.
pages: 41, released: September 2006, periodicity: One-time, contact Ronald Earley (202)586-1398

Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy - (also available in printer-friendly version)
Forcast Analysis - This report responds to a December 17, 2004 request by Senator Jeff Bingaman asking EIA to assess the impacts of the recommendations made by the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) in its December 2004 report entitled Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America’s Energy Challenges.
pages: 52, released: April 2005, periodicity: One-time, contact: Michael Mellish (202)586-2136

Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models - (also available in printer-friendly version)
Forecast Analysis - This paper describes the responses of the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) versions of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential and Commercial Demand Models to changes in energy prices, updating the results reported previously for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99) versions of the models.1 Since that report, several changes have been made to the buildings models and their technology data.
pages: 12, released: October 2003, periodicity: One-time, contact: Steven Wade (202)586-1678

Measuring Changes in Energy Efficiency for the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - (also available in printer-friendly version)
Forecast Analysis - This paper describes the construction of an aggregate energy efficiency index based on projections of sectoral and subsector energy consumption and subsector-specific energy service indicators. The results are compared with the ratio of energy to real gross domestic product, which typically is presented as a measure of energy intensity.
pages: 17, released: July 2002, periodicity: One-time, contact: Steven Wade (202)586-1678

Delivered Energy Consumption Projections by Industry in the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - (also available in printer-friendly version)
Forecast Analysis - This paper presents delivered energy consumption and intensity projections for the industries included in the industrial sector of the National Energy Modeling System. Delivered energy consumption for the industrial sector as a whole is routinely reported in the Annual Energy Outlook, but detailed projections for each of the groupings within the industrial sector are not generally discussed. The detailed projections in this paper are grouped into three categories: energy-intensive manufacturing sectors, non-intensive manufacturing sectors, and non-manufacturing industries. The results for the three groups are discussed, as well as results for the industries within each group.
pages: 37, released: June 2002, periodicity: One-time, contact: Brian Unruh (202)586-1344

Analysis of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards for Light Trucks and Increased Alternative Fuel Use - (also available in printer-friendly version )
Forecast Analysis - This report was prepared with a series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where feasible, import dependence, and emissions. The analysis provided is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand and prices through 2020.
pages: 65, released: March 2002, periodicity: One-time, contact: John Maples (202)586-1757
Addendum: Methodology for the Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stricter CAFE Standards - (also available in printer-friendly version )
Summary: Analysis of Selected Transportation Fuel Issues Associated with Proposed Energy Legislation - (also available in printer-friendly version )

Analysis of Efficiency Standards for Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, and Other Products (S. 1766 Section 921-929, H.R. 4 Section 124, 142, and 143) - (also available in printer-friendly version )
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senator Frank Murkowski on December 20, 2001 to analyze the provisions of H.R. 4 and S. 1766 that pertain to efficiency standards in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The estimated effects of the provisions are analyzed quantitatively where feasible. Qualitative discussion is provided for the remaining standards-related provisions.
pages: 23, released: February 2002, periodicity: One-time, contact: John Cymbalsky (202)586-4815

Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants With Advanced Technology Scenarios - (also available in printer-friendly version , Errata )
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators James Jeffords and Joseph Lieberman on May 17, 2001 to analyze the impacts of technology improvements and other market-based opportunities on the cost of emissions reductions from electricity generators, including nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide.
pages: 228, released: October 2001, periodicity: One-time, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284

Chapter 4: Fuel Market and Macroeconomic Impacts - Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants: Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Dioxide, and Mercury and a Renewable Portfolio Standard - (also available in printer-friendly version ), Errata
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts of imposing caps on power sector emissions of nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide with and without a renewable portfolio standard.
pages: 26, released: July 2001, periodicity: One-time, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284

Energy Price Impacts on the U.S. Economy
Forecast Analysis - This paper uses a Q&A format to address selected issues regarding the impact of energy prices on the U.S. economy. For example, how the share of energy in the economy has changed since the 1970s; a historical perspective on the relationship between energy prices and economic growth; the impact of recent events on near term economic growth; the economy's reaction to volatile energy prices; and the impact of oil price movements on other countries.
released: April 2001, periodicity: One-time, contact: Ronald Earley (202)586-1398

Modeling Distributed Electricity Generation in the NEMS Buildings Models - (also available in printer-friendly version )
Forecast Analysis - Distributed generation refers to the production of electricity in a decentralized facility, such as an office building. Currently, the building modules in the National Energy Modeling System characterize several distributed generation technologies: conventional oil or gas engine generation, combustion turbine technologies, and newer, still developing technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV), fuel cells, and microturbines. This paper describes the modeling techniques, assumptions, and results for the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 reference case. In addition, a series of alternative distributed generation simulations are described and key results presented.
pages: 281, released: December 2000, periodicity: One-time, contact: Erin Boedecker (202)586-4791

Chapter 4: Fuel Market and Macroeconomic Impacts - Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Power Plants: Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Carbon Dioxide - (also available in printer-friendly version)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts on energy consumers and producers of coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide at U.S. power plants.
pages: 22, released: August 2000, periodicity: One-time, contact: Erin Boedecker (202)586-4791

Outlook for Biomass Ethanol Production and Demand - (also available in printer-friendly version)
Forecast Analysis - The technology used to produce ethanol from corn is mature and is not likely to experience significant cost reductions in the future. The ability to produce ethanol from low-cost biomass will be key to making it competitive as a gasoline additive. If Department of Energy goals are met, the cost of producing ethanol could be reduced by as much as 60 cents per gallon by 2015 with cellulosic conversion technology. This paper presents a midterm forecast for biomass ethanol production under three different technology cases for the period 2000 to 2020, based on projections developed with the Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System. An overview of cellulose conversion technology and various feedstock options and a brief history of ethanol usage in the United States are also presented.
pages: 14, released: July 2000, periodicity: One-time, contact: Zia Haq (202)586-2869

The Northeast Heating Fuel Market: Assessment and Options - (also available in printer-friendly version )
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Secretary of Energy, Bill Richardson on March 21, 2000 to analyze the feasibility and impact of converting factories and other major users of heating oil to different fuels and discusses other options that may mitigate future heating oil supply problems in the Northeast.
pages: 92, released: May 2000, periodicity: One-time, contact: John Conti (202)586-2222

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1999 - Sectoral Pricing in a Restructured Electricity Market - (also available in printer-friendly version )
Forecast Analysis - Historically, electricity prices have not been determined by the competing interests of suppliers and consumers in open markets. Rather, State regulators have set prices by reviewing the costs incurred by the utilities under their jurisdiction, using both equity and economic efficiency as criteria to determine how costs should be allocated to different customer groups.
pages: 109, released: August 1999, periodicity: One-time, contact: Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1999 - Modeling Technology Learning in the National Energy Modeling System - (also available in printer-friendly version )
Forecast Analysis - This paper summarizes the approaches used to represent and treat technological progress and learning-by-doing in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Because technologies and their adoption are represented somewhat differently in the various NEMS modules, based on the markets they represent, the treatment of technological learning in NEMS also differs by sector.
pages: 109, released: August 1999, periodicity: N/A, contact: Andy Kydes (202)586-2222

Chapter 2: Timing of U.S. Carbon Reductions - Analysis of the Impacts of an Early Start for Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol - (also available in printer-friendly version )
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr., and George Brown, Jr., on March 2, 1999 to describe the Energy Information Administration’s analysis of the impacts of an early start on Greenhouse Gas Control using the same methodology as in Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, with only those changes in assumptions caused by an early start date.
pages: 88, released: July 1999, periodicity: N/A, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284

Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative - (also available in printer-friendly version ), Chapter 2: CCTI Tax Initiative, Chapter 3: Research, Development, and Deployment, Chapter 4: Energy-Efficient Appliances and Equipment
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. and George Brown, Jr., on December 16, 1998 and March 2, 1999 to analyze the impact of the President's Climate Change Technology Initiative, as defined for the 2000 budget, on carbon emissions and U.S. energy use and prices in the 2008-2012 time frame relative to the reference case projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1999.
pages: 101, released: April 1999, periodicity: N/A, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284

Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets & Economic Activity
Chapter 3. End-Use Energy Demand - Residential & Commercial, Industrial &Transportation - (also available in printer-friendly version )
released: October 1998, Periodicity: N/A, Contact: John Cymbalsky (202) 586-4815

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 - Modeling Technological Change and Diffusion in the Buildings Sector
Forecast Analysis - This paper gives an overview of the way in which technological change and market diffusion are represented in the buildings sector (residential and commercial energy demand sectors) of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).
released: July 1998, Periodicity: N/A, Contact: Andy Kydes (202) 586-2222

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 - The Importance of Location and Housing Type with Respect to Future Residential Sector Energy Use
Forecast Analysis - This paper examines two important factors affecting energy consumption in households, namely, the type of future additions to the housing stock and their location. The reference case developed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) projects a number of changes in housing trends and, as a result, residential energy consumption between 1995 and 2020.
released: July 1998, Periodicity: N/A, Contact: John Cymbalsky (202) 586-4815

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