Energy Consumption by Sector

Transportation

figure data

Delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector grows from 27.6 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 28.8 quadrillion Btu in 2035 in the AEO2012 Reference case (Figure 7). Energy consumption by light-duty vehicles (LDVs) (including commercial light trucks) initially declines in the Reference case, from 16.5 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 15.7 quadrillion Btu in 2025, due to projected increases in the fuel economy of highway vehicles. Projected energy consumption for LDVs increases after 2025, to 16.3 quadrillion Btu in 2035. The AEO2012 Reference case projections do not include proposed increases in LDV fuel economy standards—as outlined in the December 2011 EPA and NHTSA Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards⁴—which would further significantly reduce LDV fuel use if they were incorporated in the projection. The lower projected level of energy consumption in AEO2012 as compared with AEO2011 is primarily the result of a reduction in vehicle-miles traveled resulting from the impact of lower projected economic growth and employment rates.

Energy demand for heavy trucks increases from 5.1 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 6.1 quadrillion Btu in 2035, compared with 6.7 quadrillion Btu in the AEO2011 Reference case. Lower projected industrial output in AEO2012 leads to slower growth in vehicle-miles traveled by freight trucks, which, in combination with projected increases in fuel economy due to new fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas regulations, leads to lower projected energy demand for heavy vehicles in AEO2012 as compared with AEO2011. The AEO2012 Reference case includes the fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles published by the EPA and NHTSA in September 2011.⁵

Industrial

Approximately one-third of total U.S. delivered energy, 23.4 quadrillion Btu, was consumed in the industrial sector in 2010. In the AEO2012 Reference case, total industrial delivered energy consumption grows by 16 percent, from 23.4 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 27.0 quadrillion Btu in 2035. The largest user of energy is the bulk chemicals industry, which represented 21 percent of total energy consumption in the industrial sector in 2010. By 2026, however, the refining industry, defined as including energy use at petroleum, biofuels, and coal-to-liquids (CTL) facilities, becomes the largest energy-consuming industry in the AEO2012 Reference case.

Collectively, the energy-intensive manufacturing industries—bulk chemicals, refining, paper products, iron and steel, aluminum, food, glass, and cement—produce slightly more than one-quarter of the total dollar value of industrial shipments while accounting for nearly two-thirds of industrial delivered energy consumption. Although the energy-intensive industries are expected to recover from the recent recession, their long-term growth is slowed by increased international competition and a shift in U.S. manufacturing toward higher value consumer goods. The dollar value of shipments from the energy-intensive manufacturing industries grows by 29 percent from 2010 to 2035 in the AEO2012 Reference case, while the value of shipments from nonenergy-intensive industries increases by 57 percent. As a result of the shift toward non-energy-intensive manufacturing, total industrial delivered energy consumption increases more slowly than total shipments, and the energy intensity of industrial production declines.

Industrial natural gas consumption in the AEO2012 Reference case is lower than was projected in AEO2011, due to revised data for energy intensity in the bulk chemical industry and the adoption of an updated methodology for projecting industrial consumption of combined heat and power (CHP) that better accounts for utilization of both installed and planned capacity. Total industrial natural gas consumption is 8.7 quadrillion Btu in 2035 in the AEO2012 Reference case, compared with 9.5 quadrillion Btu in the AEO2011 Reference case.

Residential

Residential delivered energy consumption in the AEO2012 Reference case grows from 11.7 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 12.0 quadrillion Btu in 2035. Updated efficiency and cost parameters for major end-use equipment lead to some fuel switching from natural gas and petroleum to electricity in the residential sector due to competitive advantages. In 2035, delivered electricity use totals 5.9 quadrillion Btu and natural gas consumption totals 4.8 quadrillion Btu in the AEO2012 Reference case, as compared with 5.5 quadrillion Btu and 4.9 quadrillion Btu, respectively, in the AEO2011 Reference case.

Recent Federal rulemakings for residential equipment—including furnaces, central and room air conditioners, heat pumps, refrigerators, and freezers—were included in the AEO2011 Reference case based on levels outlined in consensus agreements among efficiency advocates and manufacturers. The final rules have been consistent with levels specified in the consensus agreements.

Commercial

Slower growth in commercial sector activity leads to slower growth in the sector's energy consumption in the AEO2012 Reference case relative to the AEO2011 Reference case. Commercial delivered energy consumption grows from 8.7 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 10.3 quadrillion Btu in 2035. Growth in commercial electricity use averages 1.0 percent per year from 2010 to 2035 in AEO2012, comparable to the projected 1.0-percent average annual growth in commercial floorspace. Distributed generation and CHP systems in the commercial sector generate 38 billion kilowatthours of electricity in 2035, 2 percent less than in the AEO2011 Reference case. Although delivered electricity prices are higher in the AEO2012 Reference case, slower growth in the commercial sector leads to less opportunity for the adoption of these technologies.

Footnotes

⁴U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, "2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Proposed Rule," Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 231 (December 1, 2011), pp. 74854-75420, website www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-12-01/html/2011-30358.htm.

⁵U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles; Final Rule," Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 179 (September 15, 2011), pp. 57106-57513, website www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-09-15/html/2011-20740.htm.