By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 20, 2011
10:45 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, Japan time: Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Yokosuka Naval Base have downgraded to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All Clear; other bases should follow soon, if they’ve not already. They still caution folks to be careful moving around base; fallen trees and tree limbs, power lines, etc. Just drove from Yokota, where Allied Telesis is without power and will be down until 2 a.m., to downtown Tokyo, and the base looks like a typhoon hit it. Branches, limbs, whole trees knocked over, leaves everywhere. I’m told by a civilian facilities assessment manager at Atsugi that it’s worse there. Definitely one of the worst tropical storms I can ever remember up this way. PST signing off for now. Two-hour delay for students to go to school and residents to go to work at Atsugi; two-hour delay for Yokota students, but normal duty hours prevail on Thursday at Yokota.
7:45 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery) at 7:30 p.m. DO NOT GO OUT! Wait until assessment crews can view the damage and cleanup.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 19, 2011
11:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 20, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 set for Yokota Air Base, Camp Zama and Naval Air Facility Atsugi at 9 p.m. Typhoon Roke is picking up forward speed, moving northeast at 16 mph and has intensified to a Category III-equivalent storm. But as it comes closer to land and interacts with temperatures in the high 60s in the Kanto area, Roke is forecast to lose strength, then make landfall over central Honshu, packing sustained 75-mph winds and 92-mph gusts, still a mean Category I-equivalent typhoon. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track has Roke plowing right over Yokota, 14 miles northwest of Atsugi and Zama and 33 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base at 5 p.m. Wednesday. Local forecasts call for sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph and 65-mph gusts by early afternoon Wednesday, decreasing by late evening and diminishing by Thursday morning, with 3 to 6 inches of rain between 6 a.m. and 8 p.m. Wednesday.
5:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 20, Japan time: Already, massive amounts of rain are falling in central Honshu, with the Nagoya area getting the worst of it, and we're talking an area already saturated by heavy rain the last month. Japanese forecasts call for 20 inches, perhaps more, from Nagoya to Hamamatsu and beyond, and 10-plus inches in other parts of western and central Japan. Locally, Kanto Plain bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Local forecasts call for peak winds of 35 to 45 mph and gusts between 55 and 60 mph between noon and 9 p.m. Wednesday, with 3 to 5 inches of rain projected between 6 a.m. and 8 p.m. Wednesday. Roke should make its closest point of approach sometime around 5 p.m. Though interaction with land and cooler air might shred Roke to pieces, we'll still feel a severe tropical storm's punch. Not to be toyed with. Expect accelerated TCCOR to be issued later this evening. A pretty good time to visit the AutoPort and gas up and also the ATM, in case the power goes out.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 16, 2011
4:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 set for Yokosuka Naval Base at 4:04 p.m. Monday and Naval Air Facility Atsugi at 6 p.m.
12:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 19, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Tropical Storm Roke has slowed down some; closest point of approach to the Kanto now forecast for 7 p.m. Wednesday, 20 miles west of Yokota Air Base, Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 40 miles west of Yokosuka. It’s a relatively small storm in terms of diameter, but it will still pack a mean wallop, sustained 58-mph winds and 81-mph gusts at its center. Yokosuka’s local forecast calls for winds to pick up starting Tuesday, 18 to 23 mph sustained and 30-mph gusts, increasing to 23-28 and 35 mid-morning Wednesday, 30-35 and 50 by early afternoon and 35-40 and 55 by evening.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2011
2:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 17, Japan time: Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Although forecasts don’t call for Roke to develop beyond a middling to severe tropical storm, it will remain in Okinawa’s neighbourhood for awhile, almost as if it's grabbing a latte at a Starbucks in Mihama. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Roke to pass 23 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base at 6 p.m. Tuesday. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight forecast calls for maximum sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts between 6 p.m. Tuesday and 9 p.m. Wednesday, with 9 to 12 inches of rain. As for Tropical Storm Sonca, JTWC forecasts call for it to curve well to the east of the Kanto Plain as a severe tropical storm, well east of Yokosuka Naval Base at 9 p.m. Sunday. PST will continue to keep an eye on both.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2011
9:40 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Although destructive 58-mph sustained winds aren’t forecast, to be on the safe side, 18th Wing at Kadena Air Base set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 at 9 p.m. local time. Tropical Storm Roke is still forecast to rumble 12 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base at 10 p.m. Saturday. Kadena can expect 6 to 8 inches of rain through Tuesday, with peak sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts from 9 p.m. Saturday to 3 a.m. Sunday. As for Tropical Storm Sonca, it’s curved to the northeast and the Tokyo area may feel a gust or two and a few rainshowers come early next week.
11 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Boy, traffic is starting to pick up on Typhoon Freeway. In addition to Tropical Storm Roke rumbling toward Okinawa, a new tropical depression spawned southeast of Iwo Jima overnight Wednesday. It’s forecast to curve 205 miles east of Yokosuka Naval Base at 7 a.m. Tuesday; possible for the Kanto Plain to experience showers and gusty winds for a day or so. As far as Roke, it’s forecast to make a near-direct hit on Kadena Air Base at 10 p.m. Saturday. Okinawa can expect 6 to 8 inches of rain accompanied by 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts between 9 p.m. Saturday and 3 a.m. Sunday. PST keeping an eye on things and will post any changes.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 12, 2011
11 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 14, Japan time: Tropical Storm Roke will affect Okinawa early next week, but will take a rather roundabout way of getting there. Currently headed northeast, Roke is forecast to make a sharp turn northwest, head that way for a couple of days, then hook southwest right over Okinawa Sunday night into Monday as a severe tropical storm. Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight forecast calls for damaging winds of 58 mph or greater from 3 a.m. Monday to 9 p.m. Tuesday, with peak winds of 81 mph around 5 p.m. Monday, with between 12 to 15 inches of rain.
10:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 13, Japan time: The game has changed. Tropical Depression 18W has made a sharp turn east, pushing back the wind timeline for Okinawa at least a day and diminishing the wind forecast markedly. Okinawa can now expect peak sustained 35-mph winds and 46-mph gusts around 3 p.m. Sunday; closest point of approach is 82 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at 3 p.m. Sunday. Again, the computer forecast models aren’t in full agreement, so this could change. Rapidly.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 11, 2011
8:15 p.m. Monday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Latest weather forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight calls for 58-mph sustained winds between 7 p.m. Thursday-4 p.m. Friday, maximum 75-mph gusts from 3-8 a.m. Friday. Closest point of approach now forecast for 35 miles southwest of Kadena at 7 a.m. Friday. Computer forecast models still not in agreement, though; this could change.
1 p.m. Monday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Updated wind timeline from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight forecasts sustained 40-mph winds and 52-mph gusts between 3 a.m. and 1 p.m. Friday, with closest point of approach now projected to be 55 miles southwest of Kadena at 4 a.m. Friday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 7, 2011
2:45 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 8, Japan time: Tropical Storm Kulap has picked up forward speed northwest and by the looks of the infrared loops and satellite imagery, appears to be shearing apart as it threads its way between Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base. Closest point of approach now forecast for 160 miles northeast of Okinawa at 6 p.m. Friday. Strongest winds forecast to be 23 mph sustained and 29 mph gusts between 3 p.m. Friday and 6 a.m. Saturday. Unless something drastic happens, PST signing off for now.
10:30 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 8, Japan time: Tropical Storm Kulap looks as it now it will
track further north of Okinawa than first forecast. All indicators show it will struggle to develop, if it becomes a typhoon at all, and will apparently split the difference between Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base late Saturday, chug northwest into the West Sea off the Korean peninsula (Yellow Sea) on Sunday, then make landfall over the southwest coast of North Korea early Monday morning. No accelerated Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness have been issued for Okinawa at this time. Peak winds for Okinawa are forecast to be 30 mph sustained with 35-mph gusts between 6 p.m. Saturday and 6 a.m. Sunday. Closest point of approach forecast for 170 miles north of Kadena Air Base at 9 p.m. Saturday and 225 miles southwest of Sasebo at 8 p.m. Sunday. PST will still keep a sharp eyeball on Kulap.
1 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 8, Japan time: Looking now as if 58-mph sustained winds and greater are no longer forecast. Then again, Tropical Storm Kulap is still in its infancy, the computer forecast models have yet to come into agreement and lots of things could change.
Here’s the latest forecast wind timeline, provided by Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Winds exceeding 35 mph, 1 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds exceeding 40 mph, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum sustained winds 40-mph, maximum gusts 58 mph between 9 p.m. Saturday and 9 a.m. Sunday
-- Closest point of approach to Kadena, 35 miles north, 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds decreasing below 40 mph, 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds decreasing below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday. Stay tuned.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 3, 2011
1 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 3, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base entered All-Clear Saturday morning. Tropical Storm Talas made landfall between Kansai and Shikoku mid-morning Saturday. A couple hundred miles to theast in the Kanto Plain, winds associated with Talas blew down a tree that crushed a parked red Honda in a tower apartment parking lot on Yokota Air Base’s east side; there were reports of another similar incident there overnight. At Yokosuka, maximum average winds were 37 mph and maximum gust was 50 mph at around mid-day Saturday; no immediate reports of damage surfaced. Only trace amounts of rain fell. PST signing off for now.
By Kevin Dougherty
Published: September 1, 2011
Yokosuka went to TCORR 3 at 1 p.m.
