Tropical Storm 17W (Kulap), # 5 FINAL
Published: September 7, 2011
2:45 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 8, Japan time: Tropical Storm Kulap has picked up forward speed northwest and by the looks of the infrared loops and satellite imagery, appears to be shearing apart as it threads its way between Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base. Closest point of approach now forecast for 160 miles northeast of Okinawa at 6 p.m. Friday. Strongest winds forecast to be 23 mph sustained and 29 mph gusts between 3 p.m. Friday and 6 a.m. Saturday. Unless something drastic happens, PST signing off for now.
10:30 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 8, Japan time: Tropical Storm Kulap looks as it now it will
track further north of Okinawa than first forecast. All indicators show it will struggle to develop, if it becomes a typhoon at all, and will apparently split the difference between Okinawa and Sasebo Naval Base late Saturday, chug northwest into the West Sea off the Korean peninsula (Yellow Sea) on Sunday, then make landfall over the southwest coast of North Korea early Monday morning. No accelerated Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness have been issued for Okinawa at this time. Peak winds for Okinawa are forecast to be 30 mph sustained with 35-mph gusts between 6 p.m. Saturday and 6 a.m. Sunday. Closest point of approach forecast for 170 miles north of Kadena Air Base at 9 p.m. Saturday and 225 miles southwest of Sasebo at 8 p.m. Sunday. PST will still keep a sharp eyeball on Kulap.
1 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 8, Japan time: Looking now as if 58-mph sustained winds and greater are no longer forecast. Then again, Tropical Storm Kulap is still in its infancy, the computer forecast models have yet to come into agreement and lots of things could change.
Here’s the latest forecast wind timeline, provided by Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Winds exceeding 35 mph, 1 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds exceeding 40 mph, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum sustained winds 40-mph, maximum gusts 58 mph between 9 p.m. Saturday and 9 a.m. Sunday
-- Closest point of approach to Kadena, 35 miles north, 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds decreasing below 40 mph, 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds decreasing below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday. Stay tuned.
8:45 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 7, Japan time: Initial forecast wind timeline for Tropical Storm Kulap, courtesy of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Winds exceeding 35 mph, 1 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds exceeding 40 mph, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds exceeding 58 mph, maximum gusts 86 mph, 4 p.m. Saturday-6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Closest point of approach to Kadena, 8 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds decreasing below 40 mph, 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds decreasing below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday.
Stay with PST for the latest.
6 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 7, Japan time: Here we go again. Joint Typhoon Warning Center has just issued its first warning on a new tropical storm that's developed some 585 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base and is forecast to plow over Okinawa Saturday evening into Sunday. No accelerated Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness have been issued yet. JTWC's forecast track shows Tropical Storm Kulap, the 17th numbered storm of the season, to curve sharply west and slam into Okinawa around 10 p.m. Saturday, packing sustained 80-mph winds and 98-mph gusts at its center. PST will keep a sharp eyeball on it.
