David Cameron is falling in voters' estimation. Last weekend YouGov found his net satisfaction rating – the number thinking he is doing well, minus the (rather greater) number who think he is doing badly – is the same as Ed Miliband's. No survey has put Miliband ahead on the question of who would make the best prime minister. Nevertheless, the latest figures are causing angst in Tory circles.
Cameron is the Conservatives' biggest asset. In my research on the three leaders last year, only Cameron served as a net attractor of voters to his party. He seemed competent and determined. These characteristics outweighed a faint impression of smugness, arrogance or ruthlessness. Views of Cameron were the main factor in drawing people to the Tories – more important than policies, or negative views about Miliband or Labour. Miliband seemed out of his depth, lucky to have won the leadership against his better-qualified brother. Above all, voters found him "weird". His biggest positive – a hope he would stand up for ordinary people – reflected his party's brand rather than him.
Many people supported the Conservatives because of David Cameron, while many people supported Labour despite Ed Miliband. Deteriorating opinions of Cameron will therefore have a bigger impact on the Conservatives' vote share than worsening views of Miliband would have on Labour's.
The Conservatives do not want to go into an election with the leaders' relative ratings as they are – but it is depressing to hear that plans are afoot to paint Miliband as the Michael Dukakis of British politics: part of a metropolitan elite with no understanding of mainstream concerns. There are at least three reasons why this is a terrible idea.
First, it won't work. Painting Miliband as aloof could backfire on a prime minister who faces exactly the same charge, but that is beside the point. Political insiders cherish the belief that they can present their opponents in a way that deters potential voters, but it simply does not work like that. The Tories do not present Miliband, he presents himself. Voters, in turn, make up their own minds. People did not decide he was "weird" because the Tories told them to.
Second, even if the Tories did make people think less of Miliband, the effect on Labour's support would be minimal. Those who say they will vote Labour are not unaware of his flaws; they just say they'll vote Labour anyway.
Third, an onslaught against Miliband would not improve the Tories' standing, and could damage it further. Voters think parties go on the attack when they have nothing to say for themselves. A view is gaining ground that the government lacks direction, with the number of U-turns – each trivial in itself – suggesting policies are not properly thought through. As Sean Worth, the former Downing Street aide, warned on Tuesday, the Tories risk being associated with cuts but no compensating improvements resulting from public service reform (though willingness to take tough decisions on spending remains one of the party's few positives with uncommitted voters).
Voters appreciate the difficulty of steering Britain through dangerous and uncertain times, and many respect Cameron for getting on with a tough job. There is potential for a Tory recovery if people can see that austerity will pay off, that promises are being kept, and there is a plan for the future.
But the party badly needs a sense of direction. This is what should occupy the Tories, not a quest to make their opponents more unpopular. We already know what the polls look like when a government in a muddle faces an uninspiring opposition: they are the polls we have today.
Lord Ashcroft is a Tory peer and former deputy chairman of the party
Comments
20 June 2012 6:21PM
Voters think parties attack rivals when they have nothing to say for themselves.
A perfect description of what Labour have been doing.
20 June 2012 6:25PM
I know I've made up my own mind about you !
20 June 2012 6:28PM
There is a core truth in the analysis here. Few people are turning to Labour because they're inspired by Ed Miliband but it doesn't matter to them enough to change their vote. Miliband would have to be truly, truly awful, and he isn't.
The only way for the govt to win next time is to reframe the argument on the economy back towards necessary tough choices. But it may well be impossible. The top rate cut was a disasterous mistake. Just a gift to Labour. And if the economy continues the way it looks like it will any incumbent would be in serious trouble.
20 June 2012 6:29PM
..........."Cameron is the Conservatives' biggest asset"..........
Desperate.
20 June 2012 6:30PM
They've certainly made up their minds about tax loopholes and those that drive a coach and horses through them, it seems.
20 June 2012 6:30PM
UKIP will keep you out of government and Milliband will win by default.
Gordon Brown learned the hard way about what happens when you turn your back on your core support.
20 June 2012 6:31PM
Would the Graun please make sure that "Mr" Ashcroft pays tax on his fee for this?
20 June 2012 6:32PM
Let's see less of the "Flashman" from David Cameron at PMQ's then,otherwise leave it to William Hague to handle PMQ's in calmer mode .
20 June 2012 6:34PM
Weird though it sounds, in a polling sense it's true. Cameron is more popular than his party. And this is the Tories great weakness, the party brand name is still quite toxic. The Cameron project to change that has failed. Once he loses his personal popularity that spells bad news for his party.
They're polling back in the low 30's-- a place they have been for most of the last 20 years.
20 June 2012 6:35PM
I joined the Labour Party today. Not because of Miliband, but because Cruddas is finally making noises which come close to where I stand. Felt a bit unclean to be joining the party of Blair and Mandelson. But ultimately, we have to get the Tories out before they do any more irreversible damage to our country and our society. Labour offer the only way to do that, and if Cruddas is allowed free rein, it's possible they may just be ending their obsession with winning over Daily Mail voters, and starting to develop a positive idea of what the country could and should be like.
20 June 2012 6:39PM
I've made up my mind about miliband. Just another career politician with absolutely no idea about life away from the Westminster expenses trough. He's also tainted by association with the brown pension thief. CMD is no better.
20 June 2012 6:43PM
Ed is a Tory too, so they can fight amongst themselves all they want.
20 June 2012 6:43PM
The Tories don't need to trash Miliband, they can keep their hands clean and get the Press to do it for them. Same way they did with Kinnock.
20 June 2012 6:43PM
Cameron's been condemning people today who aren't paying their taxes. Don't worry, he's not going to aim this at the biggest culprits, the Tory donors, so you don't need to be so defensive.
20 June 2012 6:45PM
Fourth: it's a waste of effort.
Everyone (who is not a Labour Party member) know that Ed Miliband is a liability to Labour.
20 June 2012 6:46PM
I've heard that Jimmy Carr is being lined up to take over your old job, Mike.
20 June 2012 6:47PM
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20 June 2012 6:49PM
Not to worry, Boris will stage a coup riding on the success of the Olympics (as long as they go as planned), so by September Cameron will be irrelevant
20 June 2012 6:50PM
"But the party badly needs a sense of direction. This is what should occupy the Tories, not a quest to make their opponents more unpopular."
The Tories making the poor and vulnerable suffer for the greed and excessive machinations of the wealthy elite , plus the near corrupt activities of back door cash for private meetings, the lies about the NHS, the self-enriching activities of some so called politicians plus a whole list of deceit and dodgy dealings have made the Tories so unpopular in such a short space of times.How is Liam Fox and his traveling contracts manager these days, scraping a living are they ? Jeremy Hunt anyone ?
Bullingdon Berties pathetic 58 responses of "can not remember/recall " at the Leveson inquiry raised a few eyebrows and revealed much. Anyone with that bad a memory as prime minister ! Streuth. Mind you, explains why he can nor remember his election pledges.
The Tories were mistakenly given a chance by some of the electorate. They did not win the election remember, only the total sell out by "Olde Nick" allowed the dim gloom of Conservative dictatorship to descend on the country. How many meals have Tory lickspittles had with McKInsey reps i wonder, as they plan their carve up of the last vestige of British greatness. the N.H.S.
Cameron is a chancer, out of his depth and floundering. The liberal walking dead should do the right thing and pull the plug, they won't though, zombies can't think for themselves.
Like all things made of rubber, Bullingdon Berty bounces back, bruised, battered and full of sh*t. God help us.
20 June 2012 6:50PM
Was this research carried out among blue-rinse matrons and retired colonels in the Home Counties, perchance?
20 June 2012 6:51PM
So Mikey Ashcroft what you are trying to say is you think the Tories are on their way down the toilet. For you to think Donut Dave is an asset must be for a reason that directly affects you.
Thats what he "seemed" did he? Doesn't say much for what they intended to do, does it? All pointing to got to get elected, must get elected, must haves its, wants its. Frankly, it puts your own judgment on what the populous is in need of as not much of a concern, really.
Having seen some of your contributions to TV series dealing with momentous events in history and attempting to imagine what the ordinary people involved were going through makes me gag to be honest.
20 June 2012 6:52PM
Occupy the Tories? What a great idea!
20 June 2012 6:55PM
What is it, tax dodgers day in the Guardian or something.
How morally repugnant does Camerunt find your activities mike?
20 June 2012 6:55PM
If you are a tax evader on just a few millions, like Gary Barlow, you only get an OBE.
Yet if you are a tax evader on many millions, you get made a Lord....
20 June 2012 6:56PM
Watch this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYR-GtpH_SI&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PLA8D03C0CC87824EF
20 June 2012 6:56PM
ATL: The Conservatives do not want to go into an election with the leaders' relative ratings as they are – but it is depressing to hear that plans are afoot to paint Miliband as the Michael Dukakis of British politics: part of a metropolitan elite with no understanding of mainstream concerns. There are at least three reasons why this is a terrible idea.
Fourth; Coming from a bunch of Old Bullingdon Club arrogant posh boys it would be the ultimate in the pot calling the kettle black.
20 June 2012 6:59PM
So not only can one get into the legislature of the kingdom unelected by not paying tax, one also gets a free hand in the nation's press?
20 June 2012 7:03PM
Note to Ashcroft.
Pay your taxes and THEN you can comment on Miliband.
Note to readers.
Type Michael Ashcroft into Wikipedia.
I hope Ed does so, lots of snippets to use in the forthcoming battle.
20 June 2012 7:05PM
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20 June 2012 7:05PM
What are the chances of Vince Cable jumping ship to Labour? Politics desperately needs someone with commonsense and experience injected into it. Anyone who doesn't just think that juggling numbers on a balance sheet is what governing a Country is all about.
20 June 2012 7:05PM
Cameron promised to get our finances on a sound footing.....result is the UK govt can borrow cheaper than any country in Europe, inflation is falling, more jobs are being created in the private sector than being lost in public sector just as Cameron said they would. Unemployment is falling. French businesses are coming here in droves as are world class companies. Millions have been taken out of tax and the highest rate is 5% higher than it was under most of Labour rule.
This why Milliband will never be PM because the British people are not stupid.
20 June 2012 7:07PM
This afternoon Rachel Reeve exposed the problem; every Tory who stood up to attack public sector pay she just pointed out that in this constituency were 9,000, 10,000 in the next, 8,000 in another; because Tories are funded by corporations they talk money where others see people.
What's the odd one out?
- benefits cut
- access to justice cut
- health services cut
- children's services cut
- disability services cut
- working tax credits cut
- employment protection cut
- minimum wage cut
- public sector pay and conditions cut
- top rate tax cut
20 June 2012 7:09PM
Blair had his nose so far up Murdoch.
The higher tax rate is 5% higher than it was under most of Labour rule.
Millions taken out of tax altogether.
Unemployment and inflation falling.
Europeans flocking here because countries are bankrupting themselves with the kind of bonehead policies you support.
20 June 2012 7:11PM
Ah Kismet! Cameron calls tax fiddlers morally repugnant on the very day that Ashcroft goes into print!
Yer couldn't mek it up!
20 June 2012 7:12PM
top rate tax is higher than it was under 95% of the time Labour were in power.
NHS expenditure is rising in real terms unlike any other party promised.
20 June 2012 7:14PM
The idea that Cameron is an asset, doesnt bode well for the Tories.He couldnt win a majority against a punchdrunk Labour administration in the middle of the biggest financial crisis since the 30s,with the full weight of Rupes backing.Outside the Westminster bubble,its plainly obvious what a vapid chancer he is.The idea this lightweight will secure a Tory majority is delusional.It takes a great talent to make Ed Milliband electable,but through sheer incompetence and habitual lying,hes well on his way.
20 June 2012 7:15PM
Well nearly. I'd vote for whoever was most likely to defeat you and your party of vermin in any election. I'd say around a 1/3 of the people I know would feel the same. You'd be appalled by the cross section of professionals, mostly in the private sector, who would cut their own genitals off before they'd vote Tory.
This is just "retoxification". Face it, the millionaire and tax avoiders, like your good self, are retoxifying the Tory party as we speak. You have tried, and I believe failed, to redefine what the British people see as "fair" and you have done a huge amount of damage to the lives of the poor, the sick and the vulnerable. The only difference I hear from people is down to political leanings. Right wingers think you're incompetent, whereas those on the left know that it it you ideology that as at fault, oh and the fact that you incompetent. We agree on that.
This will be nothing more than a pipe dream if the economy continues to tank under the weight of your ideology. You must be praying that the economy suddenly picks up, but I'll tell you a secrete; it won't without some really rather serious reforms. The sort of reforms your party donors in the city would really not allow.
20 June 2012 7:16PM
And the highest earners gained themselves a 5% tax break while a great many ordinary working and non-working British families are worse off financially than they have ever been.
I personally don't care if the French are coming here in droves, nor other world class companies, nor that Government can borrow cheaply. I now am expected to tighten my belt and that of my kids, take on debt just to live and also we are all now expected to work well past our natural use by date.
But yes you are right, good luck to all those companies, who will probably also be glad to hire British workers on the minimum wage just so they can hike off massive profits made even greater by the tax they are denying their own home countries and people. I'm sure Britain will become a much better place to live and work for their presence. If one is Rich.
20 June 2012 7:17PM
Oh and one more thing whilst I'm at it.
Who says Miliband is weird?
I have read this in the paper, and heard it on the TV, but not once have I ever heard a real human being say it.
I think it is more wishful thinking. Most people think he is a geek, which for someone wanting to run the country is actually going to be an advantage for him, when he goes up against "Flashman" in 2015.
20 June 2012 7:18PM
Do you understand the term "opposition"?
20 June 2012 7:18PM
I have lost all respect for politicians who attack each other. Over 50% of PM questions are spent attacking each other, it's boring and serves no purpose. I wish they would focus on policy reform and serving the public who elected them.
Not one of the leaders are really in touch with real Britain and would probably struggle to answer the following;
How much is a pint of milk?
A one hour driving lesson?
A loaf of bread?
They live so far from the problems, how can they possibly be responsible for fixing it.
20 June 2012 7:19PM
Why is this odious arse allowed to comment in the Guardian? The man is a tax thieve and a criminal oligarch! Are times really that bad in the Guardian that they have to award space to Tory scoundrels?
20 June 2012 7:20PM
Find me something that shows NHS spending rising in real terms, 5.2% was CPI last year so find the 'increase'.
I don't care what was happening for 95% of Labour that's history I am on the receiving end of current government decisions.
20 June 2012 7:21PM
Generally a sound analysis.
I think Ed M is deeply uninspiring and unimpressive but it is almost certainly true that Labour won't lose support because of that. The bigger risk would be that as a result of Ed's poor showing, they start fighting among themselves again, given the left and Blairite factions are never really going to be happy in the same party. Also, I don't necessarily think charisma will be so vital in our current difficulties. We need a smart operator. Ed might be that, even if he seems to have had a charisma bypass.
Cameron and the Tories popularity will ebb and flow with the economy rather than any specific perception of him personally. Since we are in long term economic decline (relatively, at least), that is likely to make any government of the day unpopular. There remains a strong sense that the last election would have been a good one to lose. I think the mistake the Tories have made is to claim that the necessary deleveraging and reining in of cost inflation in the public sector can in themselves create growth. They cant. It would have been more honest to say we will have several hard years of adjustment (but nothing like Greece, for example), then trend growth much lower than the past. But the voters want stories of milk and honey, so I guess that degree of honesty is not an option.
20 June 2012 7:23PM
No, no, no, no, no.
Firstly, watching Camoron trying not to loose his temper at PMQ's is rather funny.
Secondly, it does his standing absolutely no good whatsoever. Has he ever answered a question? I don't recall him doing so. He usually just blames everyone else. He looks slippery, but that will bite him in the end.
20 June 2012 7:23PM
The Euro is on its arse.
Nobody can afford petrol.
public sector jobs have been moved into the private sector and more quangos and their mates have been given jobs.
Yet claims for benefits is up. Turning a full time job, into two part times jobs isn't solving problems.
Extending an invite is not the same as excepting one.
Full tiime jobs have been split into part time jobs that pay under £6,475.
But everybody has an avoidance scheme around it
20 June 2012 7:23PM
Thanks for that. I did and he comes out looking like the template for a Bond villain. Ernst Stavros Blofeld or Sir Hugo Drax, maybe? Either way, it is disgraceful that such a man can wield such influence on British politics from his Caribbean hideaway. The Caribbean? That was Dr No.
20 June 2012 7:25PM
I don't agree with Lord Ashcroft's politics or his tax affairs. But he's surely right about the polling analysis. The opposition is uninspiring, Labour should be streets ahead of an increasingly discredited pair of coalition parties.
20 June 2012 7:26PM
Dodgy donations, yachts and whale watching.
Baron Ashcroft's Wikipedia entry is far more interesting than this article.
20 June 2012 7:28PM
The Tories don't need to trash Miliband, they can keep their hands clean and get the Press to do it for them. Same way they did with Kinnock.
Ain't that the truth, why have the Guardian published this piece? Because it is a way of undermining Ed Milliband, but claiming they are being independent. I guess we can expect a piece by a leader or financial supporter of UKIP next telling us that we believe Ed Milliband is useless but we mus’t say so except in the Guardia n.