Scenario Analysis
Eurozone Scenarios: Muddling Through by Pre-Empting the Backlash
Understanding the eurozone’s political and solvency risks is the key to anticipating what the future holds for the currency union.
Oct 23, 2013
The Latest from Nouriel
- Chile Trip Report: Policy Shift on the Horizon Nov 4, 2013
- Haunted by the 1990s Banking Bust: Why the Riksbank Will Remain Hawkish Oct 31, 2013
- Argentina Trip Report: How Far Down? And Then How Far Up? Oct 29, 2013
- Low Inflation, High Euro: Why the ECB Will Act Oct 28, 2013
- Fragile Five EMs Dominate IMF Debate: Are BIITS Vulnerabilities Overplayed? Oct 22, 2013
- Turkey Trip Report: Policy Tinkering May Backfire Oct 22, 2013
- The Fed's Policy Stance on the Eve of a New Era Oct 15, 2013
- Short-Term Debt Fix on the Cards, but Congress Unlikely to Stop Playing Chicken Oct 11, 2013
- Italy Trip Report: Political Risks Undermine the Recovery Sep 30, 2013
- Fall Fiscal Fistfights in Washington: A New Twist on a Familiar Plot Sep 27, 2013
- Bank of England: A Neutral Stance With Easing Bias Sep 26, 2013
- Taking Sides in Yalta: Ukraine Bets on EU as Financial Crisis Looms Sep 25, 2013
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CRITICAL ISSUES
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What's on Nouriel's Mind
The Fed's Policy Stance on the Eve of a New Era
We recently met with several FOMC members to discuss their views on monetary policy and financial markets in light of current economic conditions, the ongoing fiscal showdown in Washington and the impending nomination of Janet Yellen as the next Fed Chair.
Oct 15, 2013
Commodities
Oil Security: Which Countries Are at Risk?
Roubini Global Economics in partnership with Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) present the Oil Security Index: An intuitive analytical tool for policy makers and business people to easily measure and compare the relative oil security of more than a dozen countries.
Oct 16, 2013
Global Economic Outlook
Outlook Overview: One Last Shot of Liquidity
We revise up our 2014 DM growth forecast, but a negative feedback loop from tighter financial conditions in DMs to EMs prompts growth downgrades for the most structurally vulnerable EMs.
http://www.roubini.com/img/hp-feature-asset/OutlookPromoOct2013.jpgSep 25, 2013
Government Bonds/Interest Rates
Liquidity Traps Cast Long Shadows: When and How Fast Will the Fed Normalize Interest Rates?
We consider the interest rate-normalization path that the Fed might follow once asset purchases have ended.
Sep 12, 2013
Emerging Markets
Exposed in 2014: Measuring Exposure to China's Investment-Led Slowdown
Our new Exposure to Chinese Investment Slowdown Indicator reveals countries’ overall exposure to shifts in Chinese and global demand for a number of key commodities.
Oct 3, 2013
Finance and Banking
Banking Sector Vulnerability Monitor: Brazil in Focus
Though Brazil is not at imminent risk of a banking crisis, a number of factors will likely crimp banks’ ability to support growth through aggressive credit expansion.
Oct 10, 2013
Asia/Pacific
China Trip Report: Permanent Stimulus Is Not a Solution
A more gradual pace of reform will boost China's growth next year while increasing the odds of a hard landing in the medium term.
http://www.roubini.com/img/hp-feature-asset/ChinaTripReport4.jpgSep 26, 2013
Emerging Markets
The Imbalances Behind the 2013 EM Mini-Crisis
EMs today have built up many of the same vulnerabilities that caused the Asian Crisis of the late 1990s.
Sep 4, 2013
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