New poll has Scotland rejecting independence by four-point margin – as it happened

A poll by YouGov has shown support for Scottish independence cooling as the referendum draws nearer. Support for the no vote has risen by three points to 52%, leaving yes vote support four points behind.

On that note, and now with less than a week to go, we are going to call it a night here on the liveblog. Thanks for following.

Question: Sum up why I should support you?

Sturgeon: Independence is not a magic wand but we should be in charge of our own destiny. Other countries around the world are in charge of it and we should be too

Davidson: We are part of a multi-billion pound market and have world class armed forces. We can be a better country without having to be a separate country and

Harvie says he feels the bonds of friendship and family through the islands and feels them. If he thought independence was about breaking those bonds he would be voting no.

Galloway: How could you not break bonds by making other people foreigners? breaking up a country of english speaking people a small island, which as done many great and big things - the greatest of which was in the last battle of Britain when we stood alone against Hitler, fascism.”

One more question “if you all promise to give a short answer”...the panel is told

Good luck.

Sturgeon comes in on the NHS, asking: “How many times has Scotland voted Labour only to end up with the Tories?”

“I will fight with every breadth in my body to keep the national health service in public hands but we will have more ability to do that when we have control over our own budgets.”

Next Question: Is NHS privatisation inevitable?

Harvie: At the moment the UK government is dead-set on breaking up and privatising up the structure of the NHS, not just buying in new services.

Another audience member, clapping with his hands in the air, says: “we should be able to do better for our country rather than settling for what we have”

Galloway says there would never have been an NHS unless there was a Labour government in 1945 and a country big enough to have a big enough pot to provide free health services at the point of delivery.

“I’m speaking for real Labour - real Labour values which are shared by millions,” he adds.

Galloway comes in with one of his better lines telling the audience - in answer to a point about people living in poverty in Scotland - that there are people living in poverty “throughout this land”, including in England, and he is not prepared ‘to get into a lifeboat and slam the door behind me’

I wonder if Ruth Davidson also shifted a little bit in her seat when he said that it would mean leaving the rest of the UK to “Tory government in perpetuity”.

Next question: Oil is expected to run out by 2050. Who or what will pay our pensions?

Galloway: It’s going to run out even before then.

He refers to the warnings of the north-east oil services tycoon Sir Ian Wood has warned that Scots voters were being misled and influenced by highly inaccurate forecasts

‘You can listen to [Sturgeon and Salmond] or one of the world’s top oil experts who was forced to come into the argument due to the disingenuity of the nationalist case.’

“This is all moonshine. It’s fantasy economics,” he concludes, getting a bit of a cheer from some sections of the audience.

Harvie says that there is a need for reinvestment in a new form of energy and the altering of structures so that it’s not just owned by a bunch of multinationals but by the wider community.

Davidson refers the Institute for Fiscal Studies and says it suggested that an independent Scotland would require £6bn more cuts if there was independence.

“Money has been coming up the road. It was supposed to be health money. Alex Salmond said he would spend it on the NHS but he has not,” she adds.

Sturgeon picks up on this - “See the money coming up from down the road - it’s first our taxes and it goes down there.”

There’s much comment on Twitter about the unusual Galloway - Davidson partnership meanwhile, with even some yes supporters suggesting that the Tory leader is performing reasonably well.

Galloway challenges Sturgeon, asking why the champion of Scottish nationalism is so desperate to keep the “English pound.”

“It’s our pound” Sturgeon cuts in.

“By the time you’re my age there won’t be any oil on which to hold a currency,” says Galloway to the audience.

Next question: If Scotland stays as part of the UK will we have to pay tuition fees for higher education.

Davidson: For the last seven years the SNP has been running the education system so it has been Nicola and Alex’s decision to cut tens of thousands of places (Galloway comes in at this point to suggest a figure - closer to 100,000. She takes him up on that).

It’s already shaping up to be quite bad tempered. Galloway was loudly asking Harvie at one point: “Have you no respect?”

Sturgeon accuses the Scottish Labour of not having the guts to send anyone tonight. She says that she has the privilege of having a free education and has not right to take it away “from any of you”.

Some new Twitter reaction:

A young man says his father is an independent chartered surveyor and has been losing business already due to corporate fears over Scotland leaving the UK.

‘Why is an independent Scotland a good thing given that this is already happening?’ he asks.

Galloway answers that it’s hardly surprising - you are the only people in history potentially being about to set up independently without a currency

He adds (to jeering from some sections of the audience): ‘How could there not be uncertainty. You don’t have money. That’s the truth’

Nicola Sturgeon goes for Galloway, saying she’s “flabbergasted at Galloway, the socialist” telling young people that they should be afraid of banks saying that they may relocate.

Davidson (what an extraordinary tag team - the leader of the Scottish Tories sitting alongside the Respect Party MP) comes in to assert that the warnings surrounding RBS today should be taken seriously.

First question: How would independence affect job opportunitis for school leavers?

Sturgeon: If we got control over our economic levers we could encourage more companies to set up here in Scotland and create jobs for young people.

“You’re the reason why an independent Scotland will be a roaring success.”

Davidson: I don’t want to see barriers and red tape to companies setting up here. Many of them choose to come here because we are part of the United Kingdom.

Harvie attacks the austerity politics of London: “It’s only when Scotland controls its own politics that we can change that.

Galloway: There’s no need to erect new barriers at this point in the 21st century.

If you are hoping for jobs in the financial sector and the new emerging technologies than don’t follow the nationalists down the yellow brick road, says Galloway, wearing his usual black fedora now

Sturgeon was judged by the young questioner to have provided the best answer.

Screening of the debate which took place in Glasgow’s SSE Hydro earlier between George Galloway, Ruth Davidson, Nicola Sturgeon, and Patrick Harvie is starting on BBC, which invited 7,500 young people to come and take part in the questioning.

There’s been much tweeting from earlier under the hashtag #bigbigdebate.

The Guardian’s Esther Addley travelled up to Scotland from London today on the same train carrying Labour MPs, councillors and advisers and was there when they disembarked in Glasgow to applause from some but also jeers of ‘rubbish, lies, excrement!’

You can now read a sketch of a colourful journey which culminated in a rally that was also not without drama. Here’s a sample:

At the corner of Buchanan Street a man declared, “welcome to our imperial overlords”, and followed the phalanx of MPs playing the Star Wars imperial death march through a speaker on his bike.

“Who’s that they’re following? Is that that stupid Ed Miliband?” asked one baffled lunchtime shopper.

It would only get livelier. Awaiting the MPs at the top of the hill, beyond the statue of Labour’s inaugural first minister, Donald Dewar, were 100 or so campaigners holding aloft placards proclaiming “no”. Opposite, inevitably, a group of yes campaigners.

Read on here.

It’s not just Scotland where politics as usual is finished, according to the Guardian’s John Harris, who has penned a piece on how he has met a wide spectrum of people who are singularly disaffected by the traditional parties - from Falkirk to Clacton in Essex.

He made his latest visit last week to Scotland, where he has been working on a series of Guardian films titled Britain’s in Trouble (it’ll appear online next week), and writes:

In the broadcast media in particular, there is an implied assumption that “the Scotland moment” is something confined to that country.

But the reality across the UK suggests something much deeper and wider, and a simple enough fact: that what is happening north of the border is the most spectacular manifestation of a phenomenon taking root all over – indeed, if the splintering of politics and the rise of new forces on both left and right across Europe are anything to go by, a set of developments not defined by specific national circumstances, but profound social and economic ruptures.

Amid today’s row about what a yes vote would mean for the financial sector, the Guardian’s Nils Pratley says that the real question is whether a shift of a bank’s legal address matters in terms of jobs and the long-term prosperity of that sector in Scotland.

He writes:

Operational offices may stay but, one suspects, over time, new hires would be made in the south and external lawyers and accountants would gradually be dragged towards the new legal address. A sudden exodus is not the worry, a slow leak is.

A poll of voters in the south of Scotland shows that a majority of Scots there intend to vote no. It’s an area where the no vote has always been very strong. AS

The 33% yes vote is up four points on a similar poll in January.

Here’s the key quote from the Asda CEO Andy Clarke about the impact of Scottish independence on its operations. I posted the text earlier in a tweet, but some of you may have found that hard to read.

It will be no surprise to voters that if Scotland votes for independence, it would be imperative to establish a separate Scottish business. Currently, our systems are set up for one single UK market, we use the same currency and we operate under the same rates of VAT. By operating in a market serving 63 million customers we achieve major efficiencies and economies of scale.

If we were no longer to operate in one state with one market and – broadly – one set of rules, our business model would inevitably become more complex. We would have to reflect our cost to operate here.

This is not an argument for or against independence, it is simply an honest recognition of the costs that change could bring. For us the customer is always right and this important decision is in their hands.

According to the BBC, Number 10 are saying that David Cameron’s meeting with supermarket bosses today (see 6.12pm) and that Scotland was not mentioned.

At his press conference this morning Alex Salmond claimed Scotland would not lose tax revenue from any decision by a bank like RBS to move its registered office to England.

The BBC’s Robert Peston has been looking into this. He says it is not quite that straightforward, but his conclusion is that “in summary the proposed relocation of these banks might reduce the flow of taxes to Edinburgh a bit”.

You can read his article in full on his blog.

The BBC’s Robert Peston has posted this on Twitter.

UPDATE at 6.29PM: According to the BBC, Number 10 are saying that David Cameron’s meeting with supermarket bosses today and that Scotland was not mentioned.

Q: Is it an embarrassment that the RBS would move to London?

Salmond says Mair is confusing the Royal Bank with the Royal Bank group. The Royal Bank is staying. The Royal Bank group contains banks that have never been based in Scotland.

Q: How is Scotland going to heal after the vote?

That’s a great question, says Salmond. This is the greatest political debate he has seen. People are queuing up to register to vote. There is a carnival atmosphere in the streets.

There are going to be a lot of disappointed people either way, he says, although he says he thinks a yes vote will unleash a tide of optimism.

But after a yes vote, there should not be a team yes and team vote. He wants a cross-party negotiating group. Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem Scottish secretary, has already said he would resign to join that team, he says.

Q: Is a narrow majority enough?

Salmond says the yes campaign have taken the view that no one is a lost cause. But the no campaign is only focusing on certain groups. They have been surprised that some of these groups, women and Labour voters, are moving to yes.

And that’s it.

Q: In June 2004 you said you did not want to be SNP leader. You were very specific. A month later you mounted a leadership bid.

Salmond says he was quoting an American general. He should have quoted a different one. At the time John Swinney, the then leader, was under pressure. If he had shown a “scintilla” of interest in the leadership, Swinney’s position would have been untenable. He tries to be loyal. It is one of the SNP’s strengths.

Q: You support same-sex marriage. How much money have you taken from Brian Souter, who is opposed to it.

Salmond says he has not heard Souter’s views on this.

Q: But Souter ran a campaign against the abolition of Section 28. Why have you taken his money?

Salmond says he has done some amazing things in his business.

Eddie Mair has also got an interview with Alex Salmond. It will be broadcast before 6pm. I’ll be covering it live.

Q: Isn’t the truth that, if you don’t want an “effing Tory”, you should vote for independence?

Darling says in the past the Tories had a majority in Scotland. Sometimes you do not get what you want in a democracy.

Q: How does Scotland heal itself after this?

Darling says there will be a lot of work to be done. He has never seen anything like this in 30 years of campaigning. People are afraid to speak out. He is worried about this.

Q: What the hell happened to you between the first and second debates?

Nothing happened, says Darling. These debates are part of the great discussions going on. But, he says, he does not think they changed anything. The big debates are in people’s homes. People pay more attention to non-politicians.

Q: People like John Major and Boris Johnson says the Scots have not thought about the implication of independence.

Darling says they don’t speak for the campaign.

Q: Isn’t it ridiculous for them to say the Scots have not thought this through.

Darling says these are two Tories. Boris Johnson is not known for his tact.

Q: Some Labour people are going to vote yes. There may be long-standing reasons. What are those factors?

Darling says people want change. They want more jobs, better jobs. And they ask how that can be delivered. He argues that change can be achieved by having a strong Scottish parliament.

Q: Do you think Scottish Labour has questions to answer about the last five, 10, 15 years. Has it taken people for granted?

I don’t think so, says Darling. Look at what was done on child poverty.

Q: Were you surprised Cameron did not watch the second debate?

Darling says he would not criticise anyone for not watching a debate.

Q: But Cameron has now got tears in his eyes.

Darling says it ended up with two men shouting at each other. It was not TV’s greatest moment.

Q: Why is it so close?

Because people are genuinely torn, between head and heart, says Darling.

He says major Scottish companies have had to say they would relocated.

Q: Salmond says that is just a brass plaque.

Darling says he cannot imagine any Scottish politician being indifferent to how many head offices you have.

William Hague, the leader of the Commons, is addressing Scottish Tories.

Peter MacNamara, former head of personal banking at Lloyds, told BBC News just now that Alex Salmond was right to say, in the short term at least, that if RBS were to move its registered office to London, that would have no impact on jobs. (AS)

In the short term it really is only brass plaques, Alex Salmond is quite right there. In the longer term, where a bank is registered, where it is domiciled, tends to have an influence on where it would in future position operations. So it would be wrong to say it is of no consequence. It is not of any immediate consequence in terms of employment.

My colleague Jon Henley has been investigating what people in the north of England think about Scottish independence. He is writing a lengthy piece for the Guardian later this week, but he’s sent me a snippet.

On Carlisle’s English Street and semi-deserted Lanes last night, opinions among locals heading home from work or out for an after-office drink were divided. “They’d be nuts to do it,” said Roger Alsford, an accountant. “They’ve got a free hand with so much already, why would they want to risk all that by cutting themselves off completely? And all the uncertainty would really be highly damaging – in fact, you can already feel it – for everyone else.”

But Sally Wearden, laden with bags from Marks & Spencer and kids in tow, said simply it was “their call, at the end of a day. And I haven’t a clue what it’ll mean for us; nobody knows. They’re not going to disappear behind a wall, though, are they? It’ll all be sorted out. Plenty of countries on the continent, you drive from one to another and don’t even notice.”

And sitting outside Bar Solo in the early evening sun, Iain, a trainee teacher, and Sarah, an unemployed history graduate, really couldn’t have been less bothered. “Nobody’s about to stop anybody else having a pint with a pal in Dumfries. Even the people who govern us aren’t that stupid,” said Jake. And if the Scots need independence “to get politicians who actually look after them, instead of banks and big business”, said Sarah, “they should just bloody do it, you know? Good luck to them. Wish we bloody could.”

Heres’ the Guardian’s video from Alex Salmond’s press conference.

Here’s Joahann Lamont, the Scottish Labour leader, on the IFS report. (See 3.41pm.)

The SNP lies about our NHS have been the most shameful piece of political campaigning I have ever seen. They have deliberately misled the Scottish public, and preyed on the fears of the most vulnerable people in our communities to bully them into voting for separation.

This expert, impartial report has exposed that what Alex Salmond, Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Neil and the rest of the nationalist campaign are saying about the NHS is completely untrue.

William Hill say they have shortened the odds on a no vote. They have sent out this statement.

The odds for a No vote prevailing have shortened from 2/7 to 1/ 4, with Yes lengthening from 5/2 to 11/4, despite one Hill client from Blackburn staking a £10,000 bet on Yes – ‘This is only the second five figure bet we have so far taken for Yes’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe, ‘However, it is still the case that ‘No’ has been favourite since day one, and would currently cost us a seven figure payout, while Yes would be a six figure loser.’

My colleague Joshua Rozenberg has written a blog about the legal implications of a yes vote. He says that even if Scotland votes yes, conceivably the UK parliament could refuse to legislate for independence.

Here’s the RBS press statement on the implications of it having to move its registered office to London. And here’s an extract.

The vote on independence is a matter for the Scottish people. Scotland has been RBS’s home since 1727. RBS intends to retain a significant level of its operations and employment in Scotland to support its customers there and the activities of the whole Bank.

The Independent Labour Twitter feed has sent me this. It is about our post at 12.40pm.

Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayor of London, has expressed his opposition to Scottish independence again.

According to Better Together, five banks - Tesco Bank, TSB, Lloyds, RBS and Clydesdale Bank - have now confirmed they might have to move their registered office to London in the event of a yes vote.

Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, has issued this statement.

The news today that all of Scotland’s major banks are putting in place contingency plans to relocate their HQ functions is of the utmost seriousness for Scotland.

In the short term, jobs and tax revenues would be lost. But in the longer term, the centre of gravity and decision-making of Scotland’s financial sector would have shifted to a foreign country. This would have the much more profound consequence of the steady erosion of the jobs and prosperity that this sector has brought to Scotland for two centuries.

Alex Salmond’s attempts to dismiss these announcements are extraordinary from a responsible politician. Instead he should reflect on the damage that his cause of separation would do to jobs, prosperity, and living standards in Scotland. Unlike Mr Salmond, most people in Scotland will understand that this matters and vote ‘no’ next Thursday.

The only brass plate around today is the one that’s been nailed to the coffin of the economic case for separation by Scotland’s largest employers in the last 48 hours.

Of course, RBS has contradicted Alexander, saying moving the registered office to London would have no impact on jobs. (See 9.29am.) AS

Voter registration figures are out today. My colleague Libby Brooks has sent us this.

A total of 4,285,323 people – about 97% of the adult population - have registered to vote in the Scottish independence referendum next week, making this the largest electorate the country has ever known for any election or referendum.

The figures include 118,640 voters who have registered in the last month alone, since August 1, as well as 789,024 postal voters. A total of 164, 829 voters have been added to the register since March 1 this year.

Much has been made in recent months of the so-called “missing million” - a term that describes both those eligible to vote but missing from the register as well as those who are registered but habitually do not vote – and whether they could swing the referendum result in favour of independence.

Asda has said that its costs (ie, its prices) would go up if Scotland were independent, Sky News reports. AS

My colleague Severin Carrell has just posted this on Twitter.

Here’s the report IFS report that Sev is referring to. AS

North Korea would support Scottish independence

Whisky socialism? The Telegraph is reporting that it has been told by officials in the North Korea that the regime would support an independent Scotland - and one of Scotland’s most famous exports could be a key ingredient.

Choe Kwan-il, managing editor of the Choson Sinbo newspaper, is quoted by the Telegraph as saying:

North Korea is rich in natural resources and we like the taste of Scotch whisky, so we can be beneficial to each other.

A tartan version of one of those mass choreographed crowd displays in Pyongyang is being rehearsed at this very moment no doubt. BQ

Two thirds of architects in Scotland who took part in an online poll carried out by Architects Journal plan to vote yes.

Of the 160 who took part, 59 percent said they were in favour of independence, around 12 percent above the proportion of yes voters in the recent YouGov poll which put the Yes side ahead among the overall Scottish population.

Alasdair Stephen, of RIBA Award-winning Dualchas Architects and a member of the Architects for Yes group, welcomed the result in a statement:

Scotland will have more self-confidence, which will be reflected in our architecture.

We will be equal with other nations in the world and we will realise that our architecture should be just as good. A lack of confidence and invisibility is preventing it from being so.

Little words needed here...

A former leader of the Scottish Conservatives has attacked what she described as Alex Salmond’s “hypocrisy” regarding her party, saying that SNP relied heavily on the party’s support during its minority administration between 2007 and 2011.

Policies such as 1,000 extra police officers were only made possible because of Scottish Conservative support and Scotland’s first minister also required the party’s backing when passing budgets, Annabel Goldie said in a statement released by the Tories.

She said:

When his political fate depended on us, he didn’t think twice before seeking and taking our support.

It is quite extraordinary that he’s now doing a complete volte-face and now proclaims that the Tories are the worst things on the earth.

To hear him now dismissing the Conservatives as the pariah of politics, as the name that dare not be spoken, is to me just utterly incredible and utterly hypocritical.

Kenny Young, a former press manager to Ed Miliband, wonders if the heckling which the Labour MPs have received from some pro-independence campaigners ( who he describes as “shouty Yes nutters” ) could be useful to the no campaign. BQ

Things have been getting a bit frayed in some parts of today’s event in Glasgow, where a number of yes supporters have turned up to let Labour know what they think.

And here’s another recording of her describing the scene a little bit earlier. BQ

Guess who’s turned up in Glasgow to speak to the Labour MPs as they prepare to campaign?

Q: Viewers in Germany may not understand why Scotland wants to break away. Is there really that much difference between Scotland and England?

Salmond says he has found German people nothing but supportive of Scotland’s nationality.

The Germans might understand Scotland’s desire to be part of the European family of nations. If Scotland stays in the UK, that is in doubt.

But this campaign is not about identity. It is about democracy, he says.

He repeats his prophecy about the giant Mons Meg blowing up. (See 11.18am.)

Adam Smith said no nation can be content if a substantial number of its citizens live in penury, he says. That is why yes will win next Thursday.

And that’s it. The press conference is (finally) over.

I’ll post a snap summary shortly.

Q: What will happen to your credibility if it turns out you are wrong on a currency union?

Salmond says there is ample evidence that what the UK government is saying is a campaign tactic, not a settled policy.

It will be the Westminster parties who have to back down, he says.

It was Number 10 that said that this was like George III losing America. But Scotland is not a property to be lost. It is a proud audience, he says.

Q: You seem to imply that the RBS announcement is of no consequence. But you also say it is market-sensitive? How can you reconcile those views? And don’t you accept that it shows that a big firm like RBS does not accept your assurances on the currency?

Salmond says this was a market-sensitive announcement. There has to be an investigation. If this is allowed to stand, the rules on the release of market-sensitive information will have to be changed, he says.

He says that when he says this is a “technical procedure”, he is quoting from the letter the RBS chief executive sent to staff.

RBS was responding to the “extraordinary misreporting and confusion” on this matter, he says.

Salmond says George Osborne said three years ago that investment was suffering because of the uncertainty caused by the prospect of Scottish independence.

Since then, Scotland has had three years of record investment, he says.

The scaremongerers will lose, because you cannot win a campaign like this with a negative message.

The train-load of Labour MPs has now arrived in Glasgow. Esther Addley tweets.:

However, here’s a reminder of how some wonder if the initiative could potentially backfire:

At the same time, Kate also tweets that the MPs got a round of spontaneous applause as they walked through the station. How used are they to THAT?

BQ

Q: Do you wish more world leaders were supporting you?

Salmond says the UK government asked every other government to offer expressions of support for no. Only a handful did. So presumably the others are not opposed to independence, he says.

Similarly, almost 3,000 businesses in Scotland have decline Downing Street’s request to criticise independence.

Referring to Tony Abbott, the Australian prime minister, he says he received many letters from Scots Australians angry about Abbott criticising independence.

Q: What makes you think a Spanish government will fast-track your membership of the EU, thus encouraging separatists in Catalonia?

Salmond says the official policy of the Spanish government is that there is a difference between a consented referendum, and one that’s not. That will stand Scotland in good stead, he says.

He repeats his 1,20,25,60 mantra from earlier.

Q: You say Westminster Tories are wrong-headed. So what makes you think they will do the reasonable thing on the currency after next Thursday?

Salmond says, in his entire career, he has never described the Conservative party in the terms David Cameron did yesterday (“effing Tories”). He is more generous, he says.

He says the Edinburgh agreement commits Westminster to working to make independence a success if there is a yes vote.

And he does not know who he will be negotiating with. He hopes it is the anonymous government minister who told the Guardian that there would be a deal on the currency.

Q: Have you learnt any lessons from the Quebec referendums that could be useful in the final week?

Salmond says what he’s learnt is that if he wants to know what no will do, he just has to look at what happened in Quebec, because they are copying it. They are even copying their slogans. If you are running a negative campaign, at least you should think up your own slogans, he says.

Q: People in India are worried they will need a separate visa if they are travelling to England and Scotland. And what will change for students?

Salmond says Indian students have suffered greatly from visa restrictions introduced by Westminster. They used to have an automatic entitlement to stay in Scotland to work. That was removed by Westminster. It led to a dramatic cut in the number of students from India. Unlike, say, students from the US, they needed to work afterwards to pay for their study. It was a foolish policy with no advantages, and it was introduced through prejudice.

On travel generally, he says a common travel area with the rest of the UK will “almost certainly” be established.

Q: In 2011 members of your team went to Montreal to learn about having a referendum. What did you learn about the Quebec referendum? And why did you not want this known?

Salmond says he met politicians from Quebec last year in public. He has not hidden this.

And he has looked at other referendums too - for example, the one in Newfoundland in 1948 that had three questions on the ballot paper.

It is the no campaign who are copying what happened in Quebec. They are even adopting their slogans, he says.

I’ve been talking to Esther Addley about the atmosphere on board that train carrying Labour MPs north to Scotland. (It’s Ben Quinn here again).

Here’s a recording of the chat I had with Esther on the phone. The reception goes as the train goes through a tunnel but you’ll get the drift

Young aides are passing around the tracker bars and coffee - rather than anything stronger - is being brought down from the buffet car. The atmosphere is almost akin to a school trip, I’m told.

That said, they’re also readying themselves for the serious business of campaigning to save the union.

Esther says:

They are alive to the visual of a train from London arriving in Glasgow with a bunch of campaigners the week before the vote.

Nobody is naive and I think that Alex Salmond’s charge that this is ‘Team Westminster’… the Westminster elite coming to to stage a last ditch attempt to save the union has probably stung a little but as Harriet Harman said to me: ‘we are not Team Westminster we are Team Labour’.

BQ

Q: Do you think people in regions like Catalonia should have the right to vote for independence?

Salmond says this is a consented progress; an agreement between Edinburgh and London. This means it carries the rule of law.

Q: You used to fight tooth and nail to get corporate HQs to come to Scotland. Would you not mind if firms like RSB moved to London? Or would you be glad to see London bear the risk of having to bail it out?

Salmond says there is a difference between moving your HQ, and moving your registered office.

Q: Are you saying it does not matter?

Salmond says he is putting forward a proposition where these contingencies would be unnecessary anyway. He wants a currency union.

Q: Will you meet the delegation from the Basque government that is coming to Scotland next week?

Salmond says he welcomes delegation. Any request will be treated in the usual way.

There is a lot of interest in this referendum, he says. But Scotland is considering its future in an entirely peaceful way.

Last week he saw people queuing to register to vote in Dundee. They were people in their 40s and 50s who had never voted before.

Q: If these announcements don’t count, why are RBS and Lloyds shares up this morning?

Salmond repeats the point about the RBS chief executive saying jobs will not be affected.

Q: But the markets decide that these companies are worth more because they have plans to move something out of Scotland.

Salmond says on Monday some share prices went down after the YouGov poll (putting yes ahead). But prices went up again on Tuesday, even though another poll confirmed yes support was rising, he says.

Over the long term, share prices have been going up, even though Scotland has been preparing for independence.

Q: Aren’t you just saying to the Scottish people - trust me on the currency?

Salmond says, by an overwhelming majority, the Scottish people want a currency union. And, by a substantial majority, they think Westminster is bluffing when it says it won’t support a currency union.

The no campaign has been caught red-handed being engaged in scaremongering, and leaking market-sensitive information.

The people of Scotland have been exposed to these arguments fo the last two years, he says.

He says he thinks there are two reasons for the rising support for the yes campaign.

First, they are responding to yes’s positive message.

Second, they are fed up with the scaremongering from no.

Salmond says he set out his currency options in his debate with Alistair Darling two weeks ago.

But he wants to get a mandate from the Scottish people to argue for a currency union.

Q: [From Al-Jazeera] Would an independent Scotland support President Obama’s coalition against Islamic State?

Salmond says he has never said the Scots are more peaceful than the English.

But they would always respect international law, unlike what happened when Westminster backed the Iraq war. That was illegal, he says.

He says he supports United Nations collective action in relation to matters like Islamic State. That will always be more effective in cases like this.

Q: So would a Scottish air force participate in this kind of campaign?

Salmond says Scotland would only participate in any military action sanctioned by the UN in accordance with law.

Q: Do all your partners in the yes campaign share your foreign policy concerns, in relation to Nato, for example.

Salmond says the UK’s previous Nato ambassador said recently Scotland would be welcomed into Nato.

The BBC’s Nick Robinson goes next.

Q: Do you think the RBS decision has no consequence? Or would tax revenues move to London?

Salmond says corporation tax does not depend on where the registered office is. It is based on corporate activity.

Q: Why should Scottish voters believe you, rather than the heads of firms like John Lewis, BP and Standard Life?

(Someone heckles Robinson at this point.)

Salmond says it is time to move beyond the scaremongering.

Yesterday’s warnings were a recycling of what was said previously. Bob Dudley, the BP chief executive, said what he said yesterday in February. And Standard Life’s statement echoed one made three months ago.

He says he has heard the BBC say Lloyds Banking Group are going to move their HQ to London. Given the BBC is based in office, it should know that the Lloyds HQ is already in London. All that’s being talked about is moving a plaque from the Mound in Edinburgh. That is there as a consequence of the Lloyds take-over of TSB.

He says the RBS share price moved overnight. There will be an inevitable investigation into the briefing of maket sensitive information. This is “as serious a matter as you can possibly get”.

Nick Robinson asks Salmond to answer the question about the tax consequences of the RBS move. So there will be no tax consequences?

Salmond says he has answered that. Corporation tax is based on economic activity, not on where a firm is registered.

This is a contingency, he says.

Q: Would you support the sanctions against Russia backed by London?

Salmond says he does not support aspects of what Russia is doing in Ukraine. That is why he has backed London’s sanctions.

We’re on to questions now.

Salmond is taking questions from the international press first. It’s their opportunity to question him.

Q: Will Spanish fishermen still get access to Scottish waters after independence?

Salmond says the issue of Europe has disappeared from the campaign. That’s because Jean-Claude Juncker, the incoming president of the commission, has said the will of the people must be respected.

Salmond says he can explain why Scotland will remain part of the EU with four figures: 1, 20, 25 and 60.

He goes on: 1% is Scotland’s share of the EU population; 20% is Scotland’s share of EU fish stocks; 25% is Scotland’s share of the EU’s renewable offshore energy; and 60% is Scotland’s share of the EU’s oil and gas reserves.

This is it. The moment to believe - the moment to win, Salmond says in conclusion.

Salmond is still going strong.

(This is supposed to be a press conference, but more than 45 minutes after its official start time, we still haven’t had a single question. I think it’s fair to say Salmond is losing his audience.)

He is talking about the poll tax no. Scotland won’t be conned again, he says.

Salmond says he believes in public engagement with politics; unlike David Cameron, he does not believe in public school isolationism.

He accuses the Westminster parties of “blatant intimidation”.

This morning the RBS, in a notice to markets at 7am, revealed it had plans to change its place of registration.

This information was market sensitive. But the Treasury briefed it. Today he will be writing to the cabinet secretary, Sir Jeremy Heywood, asking for a leak inquiry.

He quotes from the RBS chief executive’s letter that he cited on BBC Radio Scotland this morning. (See 9.29am.)

The Treasury fired this “great gun”, this Mons Meg (a canon at Edinburgh Castle). But it blew up in their face, he said. It was “another spectacular blunder from the no campaign”.

It looks like the BBC has splashed out on installing quite fancy looking video wall at at Pacific Quay in Glasgow.

If only the great Peter Snow was not in retirement from presenting in front of elaborate graphic election displays. BQ

Salmond says the campaign has been a “celebration of democracy”. This has reinvigorated the political process. As a country, the Scots are rediscovering their political voice, he says.

The Scots have no intention of allowing the Westminster elite to tell them they cannot make a success of independence.

Scotland has a higher GDP per head than the UK, France or Japan, he says.

Scotland has great wealth.

But what matters most is what it does with it.

A yes vote next week won’t be the end of something. It will be the beginning of something really special, he says.

Patrick Harvie, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, and Anum Qaisar, general secretary of Muslim Friends of Labour in Scotland, both spoke in support of independence.

And Alex Salmond is on the stage now.

(My wifi connection is a bit hit-and-miss, and so I’m sorry if it goes quiet for a bit.)

Canon Kenyon Wright is speaking now.

He says he had a moment of deja vu yesterday. In 1997 he knew the devolution camp were going to win when Margaret Thatcher came to Scotland shortly before the vote to campaign against it. If that is what one member of the establishment can do, think what three can do.

No wonder they are running scared. Scotland could change their system, he says. But it would change it for the better.

Who has the ultimate power to decide Scotland’s future? Westminster, or the people of Scotland? It cannot be both, he says.

This is the key issue of the campaign, he says.

He criticises David Cameron for rejecting the option of a third question on the ballot paper. That would have offered real reform within the UK, he says.

Now he favours independence - or inter-dependence independence, he says, because Scotland would still be part of these Isles.

Now he is using the quote briefed earlier. (See 7.33am.)

Andrew Sparrow is in position now at Alex Salmond’s press event - billed as a major press conference for the international media - and will be bringing you coverage from there very shortly.

I’m at the Edinburgh international conference centre waiting for Alex Salmond’s press conference to start.

The organisers seem a bit worried that the turn-out hasn’t lived up to expectations. I’ve just been asked to move to a seat in the rows in the middle.

The Better Together (BT) campaign has been seizing on that Times Higher Education poll (see here) saying that University academics and staff in Scotland are more likely to oppose independence than to support it.

A statement just issued by BT has quotes from Professor Hugh Pennington, Emeritus Professor of Bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen, who said:

With just days to go until we make the most important decision in Scotland’s history, we still don’t know how our world-class universities would be paid for. This is a risk we just don’t have to take.

To settle for less than being a global leader in education is selling Scotland short and that is why we should say ‘No Thanks’ to separation.

Looks like some people might be hogging the good seats on that train carrying Labour MPs up to Scotland.

Here’s Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham on one of those uncomfortable folding ones. BQ

Here’s Nick Robinson on the challenge facing Alex Salmond today.

I’m heading off for Alex Salmond’s press conference now.

While I’m on the way, and when I’m there, my colleague Ben Quinn (BQ) will be posting updates on non-press conference related matters. AS

The Guardian’s Esther Addley has been sending some pictures of Labour MPs on board the “Save the Union Express”

They’re still boarding at various points by the sound of it. Esther says that Andy Burnham has just got on at Wigan.

My colleague Libby Brooks has sent me more about Nigel Farage’s comments about the role of “anti-Englishness” in the campaign.

Describing the SNP as “the voice of anti-Englishness”, the Ukip leader writes in the Telegraph this morning: “The vote is about secession from England and Mr Cameron epitomises all that the Scottish people viscerally loathe about England.”

He adds: “The problem for the Scots, though, is if they vote ‘’yes’’ next week, they will not get independence. Rather, they are voting for rule by Brussels. As Mr Cameron has brutally discovered, no EU member is truly independent.”

Farage, who will hold a pro-union rally in Glasgow on Friday evening, writes that Cameron was mistaken in excluding the so-called “devo max” option – more powers for a Scottish parliament within the union - from the ballot paper.

“The Scots have no way of keeping a UK link while extending the powers of the Scottish Parliament. I believe this option would have won the day but thanks to Mr Cameron, it is not on offer. The choice on the ballot plays into Salmond’s hands: vote to stay subject to the English toffs at Westminster who stole their country under the threat of bankruptcy 300 years ago – the Act of Union – or vote to throw off the hated English yoke.”

So, Alex Salmond is pushing back aggressively against the idea that RBS or Lloyds bank making contingency plans to partially relocate to London under independence would be of any significance.

I’ll post a full summary shortly.

Q: Mark Carney says an independent Scotland would need reserves of £20bn. Are you factoring that in to your plans?

Salmond says he is factoring in the prospect of a currency union.

Q: So you are not making these plans?

Salmond says the rest of the UK would have to pay debt worth more than £100bn if it did not agree a currency union. If Scotland had that money, that would be a huge benefit, he says.

And that’s it.

Salmond says the statements from BP and Standard Life yesterday were a “recycling” of things they had said before. But the London press did not realise, because they have not focused on the campaign before.

Q: But the polls are against you?

Salmond says, by a massive majority, the polls show people want a currency union, and that they do not believe Westminster would not agree one.

Salmond says the contingency plans announced by RBS and Lloyds will have “no impact” on their operations and jobs.

He accuses the BBC of misreporting this, saying wrongly the bank is talking about moving its headquarters.

And now over to BBC Radio Scotland where the Alex Salmond interview is still going on.

Q: Do you accept there would be a flight of capital in the event of independence?

Salmond says Mark Carney, as governor of the Bank of England, said yesterday he would be in charge during the negotations.

He says it is his “overwhelming belief” that Westminster would accept a currency union.

The UK government will be first at the table to arrange a currency union after a yes vote, he says.

Q: RBS has contingency plans for a yes vote. Do you accept that it is because of uncertainty that they have made these plans?

Swinney says an agreement on a currency union would resolve this.

Q: Why do you think that would happen?

If Scotland had a mandate from the voters, the UK party leaders would accept that.

Q: How confident are you?

Very confident, says Swinney.

And that’s it.

Q: What about the cost of setting up a new state. You promised that figures would be produced. They have not been. The Lib Dems put in a Freedom of Information request asking to see your calculations. Either you are not revealing them, or they were not done.

Swinney says, where it was possible to produce figures, they were produced. For example, on the cost of setting up foreign representation.

Q: So why did Alex Salmond said the overall cost would be just £200m, less than a fifth of the cost of the Edinburgh tram.

Swinney says that was a figure from Professor Dunleavy of the LSE.

But some costs are unknown. For example, all pensions in Scotland are currently paid from centres already based in Scotland.

Back to John Swinney.

Swinney says uncertainty about the currency applies because of the refusal of the UK, and the Labour party, to accept the advantages of a currency union between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK.

Q: But the rest of the UK has got the right not to share the currency.

Swinney says Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has said he would implement whatever politicians decide.

Q: But at the TUC on Tuesday Carney said a currency union was incompatible with sovereignty.

Swinney says in a speech in January, Carney said an independent Scotland would have to cede some sovereignty. That was treated as a great revelation. But it is what the SNP government accepted. It said so in its financial commission report.

Q: But the papers today have pictures of Alex Salmond with Jim Sillars. Sillars says your policy is “beyond idiotic”. Dennis Canavan, chair of the yes campaign, says he does not support your plan.

Swinney says his plan is the policy of the Scottish government.

And Alex Salmond is on BBC Scotland.

I’ll post more from his interview shortly.

My colleague Libby Brooks has been listening to BBC Radio Scotland, and she says the BBC’s business editor, Kamal Ahmed, is playing down the significance of Lloyds and RBS saying they might move to England in the event of independence.

University academics and staff in Scotland are more likely to oppose independence than to support it, according to a poll. The Press Association has more details.

The survey, conducted by the Times Higher Education (THE) magazine, also found that the majority of those working at Scotland’s universities believe that remaining part of the UK would be better for the nation’s higher education system.

More than 1,000 academics and administrators took part in the poll, with over half (54.8%) indicating that they intend to vote “no” and 41.2% intending to vote “yes” on September 18. The rest were not sure.

This gives “no” to independence a 13.6 percentage point lead over “yes”.

The survey also found that around 55% of those questioned think that staying with the UK would be the best result for Scottish universities, with 30.2% saying independence would be better for Scotland’s higher education.

Better Together has issued a statement welcoming the Financial Times’s endorsement. This is from Blair McDougall, its campaign director.

This is an important moment in the campaign. Alex Salmond never tires of quoting the Financial Times, yet here the paper has delivered a damning verdict on his economic case for breaking up the UK. Key to this is the abject failure of Alex Salmond to spell out his Plan B on what would replace the pound. Scots have no idea what wages, pensions and benefits would be paid in, or what money we would use to pay for our NHS. We haven’t a clue what currency we would use to pay for shopping and supermarket bills. People in Scotland are being asked to vote on the basis of crossed fingers and blind faith.

And while we’re on the subject of things that might offer some morning cheer, I thought you might like this. I’m writing the blog from the Guardian’s referendum HQ in Edinburgh, which is close to the Scottish parliament. There are some lovely quotes engraved into the wall of the parliament, and here’s one of them.

Today’s the anniversary of the 1997 referendum that led to the creation of the Scottish parliament and Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, is going to make it by holding what is being billed as a major press conference for the international media. Judging by my experience when I came up to Glasgow for the launch of the independence white paper, “international” media includes me.

According to the BBC, Salmond will be accompanied by Canon Kenyon Wright, who chaired the Scottish Constitutional Convention (the cross-party body that created a blueprint for devolution before Labour was elected.) Wright will say:

The tactics used by ‘No’ simply prove that they fail to understand how deeply that principle of Scotland’s right is rooted in our history.

First there was the stick to threaten us. Now the carrot to tempt us.

First the blackmail - be naughty and vote ‘Yes’ and we’ll punish you. Now the bribe - be good, vote ‘No’ and we’ll reward you.

Scotland needs something devolution can never give - the secure power to make her own decisions; to follow her own vision of a just fair society, to take her positive place among the nations of Europe and the world, to be free from the constant interference from Westminster.

Doubtless, though, Salmond will find himself being asked not about events in the 1990s, but about the key issues in the campaign today, such as the financial concerns aboiut independence highlighted in the Guardian’s splash and elsewhere.

Here’s the full agenda for the day.

8.10am: John Swinney, Scotland’s finance minister, is interviewed on the Today programme.

10.15am: Gordon Brown, the Labour former prime minister, speaks at a Better Together rally in Kilmarnock. He will be joined by Gregg McClymont, the shadow pensions minister, and Cathy Jamieson, a shadow Treasury minister.

10.30am: Alex Salmond holds his press conference. According to Yes Scotland, he will outline Scotland’s constitutional journey to date, the principles behind the campaign for a Yes vote, and the opportunity that will open up to the people in an independent Scotland. I will be attending the press conference and covering it in detail.

11.30am: Richard Lochhead, the SNP rural affairs spokesman, sets out a 10-point plan for a “rural renaissance” under independence.

Afternoon: Alistair Darling, the Better Together leader, campaigns with some of the 100 Labour MPs who are coming to Scotland today to support the no campaign.

If you want to follow to follow me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

And, before we get going, here’s something to enjoy - the Telegraph’s Matt at his best.