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Climate Change in the Pacific Islands

In the Pacific Islands, we are collaborating with climate researchers at the University of Hawai`i’s International Pacific Research Center, the Department of Geography and NOAA's National Center for Atmospheric Research. These collaborations will assess historic climate trends and promote the development of regional climate models that will aid in estimating future climate conditions in the Pacific Islands (Hawai`i, American Samoa, the Mariana Islands and other islands. The greatest impediment to predicting the effects of future climate change in the Pacific Islands ecoregion is the lack of regional models that provide climate data at an ecologically relevant scale.

Hawai`i is situated in an area of the Pacific that is protected from the affects of major annual tropical storms while simultaneously receiving an abundant supply of annual rainfall and moderate year round temperatures. Annual rainfall has decreased and surface temperatures have risen during the last several decades, but it is unknown whether these conditions will persist or change with global climate change. The seasonal pattern of Hawai`i’s rainfall combines with geographic and elevational features (up to 13,400 feet) to produce extreme rainfall gradients over short distances. These unique island features produce a wide range of ecological communities that have supported the diversification of Hawai`ian plants and animals. 

In addition to temperature and rainfall changes, sea level rise and ocean acidification are also likely to have significant affects on all of the Pacific Islands.

Sea Level Rise

Melting of glacier ice and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets along with thermal expansion of the oceans will likely continue to increase sea level for many hundreds of years into the future. Low lying coastal areas are likely to be inundated by seawater or periodically over-washed by waves and storm surges. Coastal wetlands may become increasingly brackish as seawater inundates freshwater wetlands. New brackish and freshwater wetland areas will be created as seawater inundates low lying inland areas or as the freshwater table is pushed upward by the higher stand of seawater. In the Pacific Islands there are many low lying atolls, including many that are part of the National Wildlife Refuge system. These atolls protect rare and common sea birds and coral reef communities. Most of the atoll islands are expected to be over-washed and eventually submerged by rising sea levels. 

Ocean Acidification

Dissolving of carbon dioxide into ocean surface waters will increase the acidity (pH) of ocean surface waters. Carbonate-based animals and plants form the foundation of our marine ecosystems. An increase in ocean acidity is likely to result in a decline in the ability of coral reefs to maintain their calcium carbonate structure. Hawai`i supports more than 60% of the coral reefs in the United States with additional extensive coral reefs in the Mariana Islands, American Samoa, and refuge islands and atolls throughout the Pacific. Phytoplankton that utilize calcium carbonate are also likely to decline in abundance, along with other carbonate-dependent animals such as marine snails and carbonate-dependent plants such as red marine algae that utilize carbonate to cement together tropical coral and algal reefs. Finally, the affects of acidification on the development of carbonate-dependent marine larvae is largely unknown but of potentially great significance.

Read more at this website:
University of Hawaii’s International Pacific Research Center