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National Drug Intelligence Center  National Drug Threat Assessment 2005 Summary Report February 2005 Marijuana Key Findings Trends and Developments    Availability     Demand    Production     Transportation    Distribution The prevalence of marijuana and the continuing high demand for the drug underlie its stability as one of the foremost drug threats. More than 95 percent of state and local law enforcement agencies describe the availability of the drug as high or moderate, and 75 percent of illicit drug users aged 12 or older report current use of marijuana. Furthermore, NSDUH 2003 data indicate that more than 25 million persons aged 12 or older used marijuana within the past year. Key Findings Marijuana is readily available in drug markets throughout the United States, and interagency estimates as well as law enforcement reporting, drug survey data, and drug seizure data indicate that availability of the drug is increasing. The escalating prevalence of higher potency marijuana such as sinsemilla has resulted in an increase in average marijuana potency; however, high potency marijuana constitutes a relatively small portion of the marijuana available throughout the United States. Commercial-grade marijuana is the most widely available type throughout the country.  Demand is higher for marijuana than for any other illicit drug; however, marijuana use among eighth, tenth, and twelfth graders as well as college students has declined since peaking in the late 1990s. Figure 6. Rates of Past Year Use for Marijuana, 2000-2004 d-link Source: Monitoring the Future. The consequences of marijuana use evidenced in ED mentions and treatment admissions have increased steadily over the last decade; however, three significant underlying factors should be considered when analyzing such increases. First, marijuana often is used with alcohol or other illicit drugs, which obscures the relevance of marijuana as a cause of many ED mentions. Second, a rise in treatment referrals through the criminal justice system has contributed largely to the increase in marijuana-related treatment admissions. Third, increased prevalence of higher potency marijuana has likely resulted in a higher number of individuals experiencing more intense--and often unpleasant--effects of the drug, leading them to seek medical intervention. Mexico has been the principal source of U.S.-destined foreign marijuana for decades, and already high production levels escalated in 2003. Mexican DTOs control nearly all marijuana production in Mexico, and an estimated 13,500 metric tons of marijuana were potentially produced in Mexico during 2003--70 percent more than the previous year. Other major sources of foreign-produced marijuana include Canada, Colombia, and Jamaica. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) estimates Canadian marijuana production at 800 to 2,000 metric tons. Most of the large-scale marijuana production in Canada is controlled by OMGs and Asian criminal groups. Marijuana production in Colombia, which is primarily controlled by Colombian DTOs, continues to be reported at 4,150 metric tons; however, this estimate has not been updated since 1996. Potential marijuana production for Jamaica has not been reported since 1997. Domestic marijuana production appears to be increasing, in part because of the rising involvement of U.S.-based Mexican criminal groups in large-scale cultivation operations in the United States. Cannabis cultivation is extensive in certain areas, most notably in the Pacific and Southeast Regions.  Figure 7. Principal Outdoor Cannabis Cultivation Areas d-link To Top      To Contents Table 6. Top Five States for Marijuana Eradication, 2003 Outdoor Plants California  1,109,066 Tennessee  678,635 Kentucky  519,986 Hawaii  388,903 New York  95,385 U.S. Total  3,427,923    Indoor Plants California  72,891 Washington  23,557 Florida  16,302 Oregon  15,944 Texas  11,722 U.S. Total  223,183  Source: Drug Enforcement Administration Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program. Marijuana smuggling into the United States via borders with Mexico and Canada appears to have increased overall; however, the volume of marijuana seized along the Southwest Border greatly exceeds Northern Border amounts. Table 7. U.S. Arrival Zone Seizures of Marijuana in Kilograms*, 2001-2003     2001 2002 2003 Southwest Border 1,059,037 1,034,635 1,173,128 Northern Border 3,601 8,370 11,183 Source: El Paso Intelligence Center. * Numbers are rounded. The size of marijuana shipments smuggled from Canada into the United States has increased, largely because of the increasingly for-profit nature of marijuana production in Canada, which the RCMP reports is now dominated by organized crime, most notably Hells Angels OMG and Vietnamese criminal groups. Despite the apparent increase in marijuana smuggling from Canada, Mexico remains by far the principal source area of foreign-produced marijuana in the United States.  The market for marijuana is strong and stable throughout the United States and should remain so given the drug's wide appeal to users and consistent profitability for distributors as well as producers. Most DEA Field Divisions and HIDTA offices identify Mexican DTOs or criminal groups either as the primary marijuana wholesalers or as prominent in wholesale marijuana distribution in their areas, which include every region of the United States. Jamaican criminal groups are primary or prominent wholesalers mainly in cities of the Northeast such as New York, Philadelphia, Boston, and Washington, D.C. Caucasian wholesale marijuana distributors are identified primarily in the Pacific, West, Southeast, and Northeast regions and particularly in Kentucky, Tennessee, Oregon, and Washington. Vietnamese wholesale distributors are most active in the Pacific region, although they have been identified in areas of the Midwest and Southeast regions. Miami appears to have diminished in its role as a national-level PMA; however, the South Florida area remains a primary entry point for foreign-produced marijuana smuggled through the Caribbean and is emerging as a regional source of supply for domestic marijuana.  To Top      To Contents      Trends and Developments Availability The escalating prevalence of higher potency marijuana such as sinsemilla appears to have resulted in an increase in average potency levels. The percentage of marijuana samples testing at 9 percent or higher THC (delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol) increased more than 600 percent from 1994 (104 of 3,281 samples) to 2002 (545 of 2,378 samples), according to data from the Potency Monitoring Project. The average potency of tested marijuana and sinsemilla during that period also increased. Average THC levels for both types rose approximately 50 percent--from 3.50 to 5.11 percent THC for marijuana and from 7.49 to 11.43 percent THC for sinsemilla.  NDIC Comment: Marijuana potency has increased; however, even with the advances in indoor cultivation techniques and marijuana production methods used throughout the United States and Canada (where much of the higher potency marijuana is produced), THC levels remain, typically, under 15 percent. Growers can and do produce marijuana with potency levels over 20 percent; however, not all growers have the capability or the determination either to produce top quality marijuana or to achieve the highest potential yield from their crops. Increasingly, organized crime groups in Canada and, to a lesser extent, the United States are becoming more involved in large-scale marijuana cultivation and are primarily interested in profits.  It is unlikely that they will invest the care required to mass-produce top quality marijuana, particularly in the drying, manicuring, and curing stages of production. This trend should help to stabilize or further slow the rise in average potency levels.          Demand The consequences of marijuana use evidenced in ED mentions and treatment admissions have increased steadily over the last decade. Marijuana-related ED mentions increased nearly 200 percent from 1994 to 2002. Marijuana-related treatment admissions increased 100 percent during the same period.  NDIC Comment: The dramatic increases in marijuana-related ED mentions and treatment admissions often are viewed with concern, and while these increases may be attributable in part to the higher potency marijuana available today, this hypothesis has yet to be confirmed. Polydrug use and integrating treatment services in the disposition of minor cases of marijuana possession are two significant underlying factors to consider when assessing the consequences of marijuana use. Marijuana very often is used sequentially or concurrently with alcohol or other illicit drugs. In fact, only 28 percent of marijuana-related ED episodes in 2002 involved marijuana alone, so the presence of alcohol or other illicit drugs undoubtedly obscures the relevance of marijuana as a cause of many emergency department visits. Also, a rise in treatment referrals through the criminal justice system (from drug courts begun in the early 1990s) has contributed largely to the increase in marijuana-related treatment admissions. According to the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), treatment admissions referred by the criminal justice system were more likely to report marijuana as a primary substance of abuse than admissions referred by all other sources (24% and 10%, respectively). This is not to suggest that marijuana use is not harmful or that providing treatment as an alternative to arrest is a flawed policy, but these underlying factors do have a bearing on the analysis of marijuana's consequences.   To Top      To Contents Production Domestic marijuana production appears to be increasing. Production estimates for the United States remain widely uncertain, and there are as yet no agreed-upon trend data for comparison; however, law enforcement reporting indicates increasing cultivation throughout the country, noting in particular large-scale cultivation in the Pacific Region.  NDIC Comment: Contributing to increasing domestic marijuana production is the rising involvement of DTOs and criminal groups in large-scale cultivation operations in the United States. For example, U.S.-based Mexican DTOs control large outdoor operations in California and Oregon, and law enforcement reporting further indicates that these DTOs are increasingly involved in commercial indoor cultivation in California's Central Valley. The establishment of Mexican DTO-controlled operations in the United States has been documented for a few years, and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) reports that at least five separate Mexican DTOs currently are linked with cultivation operations on California public lands. Reporting suggests that Mexican DTOs set up operations within the United States to avoid increased border security and higher transportation fees after September 11, 2001.          Transportation The size of marijuana shipments smuggled from Canada into the United States has increased. Amounts smuggled overland across the Northern Border typically have ranged from personal use quantities to the 40- to 100-pound quantities carried in duffel bags; however, traffickers are increasingly transporting marijuana in private and commercial vehicles--for example, the trash trucks that frequently cross from Canada into Michigan--and overland shipments now are frequently 200 pounds or more. Also, marijuana shipments seized from noncommercial vessels and private aircraft in 2003 were two to three times larger than shipments seized from those transportation modes in previous years.  NDIC Comment: The increase in the size of marijuana shipments smuggled from Canada is due largely to the increasingly commercial nature of marijuana production in Canada, which the RCMP reports is now dominated by organized crime, most notably Hells Angels OMG and Vietnamese criminal groups. Typical cultivation operations in British Columbia and Ontario involve residential homes of 2,000-plus square feet that are totally converted for grow operations, and the RCMP reports that multithousand-plant operations are no longer uncommon.             Distribution Miami appears to have diminished in its role as a national-level PMA; however, the South Florida area remains a primary entry point for foreign-produced marijuana smuggled through the Caribbean and is emerging as a regional source of supply for domestic marijuana. Law enforcement reporting and seizure data indicate that Florida, particularly the southern portion of the state, continues to be a focal point for maritime smuggling of marijuana from source areas such as Colombia and Jamaica. But in the past few years, as seizures specifically at the port of Miami have declined, reporting indicates that shipments are entering Florida at various points along the state's Atlantic Coast, particularly from Miami to Port St. Lucie, and at the southern tip. Also, indoor cultivation in South Florida has increased to such an extent in recent years that locally produced, usually hydroponic marijuana is supplying not only a strong local market (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties) but also markets out of state, where it sells for a higher price. Hispanic criminal groups and gangs control most wholesale and retail marijuana distribution in Miami; however, Haitian, African American, and Cuban American criminal groups and independent cultivators often run indoor cultivation operations and distribute the marijuana that they produce. NDIC Comment: Except for reporting from law enforcement in markets along the East Coast that has cited Miami as a significant source of marijuana to their areas, there is little quantifiable data to show national-level wholesale distribution of marijuana specifically from Miami. Moreover, law enforcement in Florida believes that much of the marijuana produced locally or smuggled into the state through the Caribbean or overland from Mexico is consumed locally and that distribution of foreign or local marijuana from the area is not as significant. This situation is unlike that in PMAs such as Phoenix/Tucson or Chicago, for example, where reporting indicates that as much as half or more of the marijuana transported to those areas is destined for other markets. Marijuana Primary Market Areas The vast majority of foreign-produced marijuana is transported in bulk via the Southwest Border; consequently, marijuana shipments from markets such as Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Phoenix/ Tucson, and San Diego occur more frequently and are often larger. Moreover, seizure data regarding the Southwest Border are the most comprehensive and corroborate extensively law enforcement reporting regarding distribution from these areas. Limiting the discussion to the southwestern United States based on the volume of marijuana distributed, however, provides an incomplete picture. While the volume of marijuana distributed through Chicago, Miami, New York, and Seattle is small compared with markets in the southwestern United States, these markets typically have played an important role in distribution, particularly of marijuana smuggled across the Northern Border, smuggled through the Caribbean, or produced domestically.  Shipments of marijuana transported to PMAs usually are delivered to stash houses that, as in Phoenix, often hold 500- to 1,500-pound lots at any given time. At these stash houses, the marijuana is divided into midlevel or retail quantities and repackaged for local, regional, or national distribution.  Chicago. Mexican DTOs and criminal groups  are the principal wholesale distributors in Chicago. Street gangs are the principal retail distributors, although they also are involved in some wholesale distribution. Dallas. Mexican DTOs and criminal groups are the primary marijuana wholesalers in Dallas. Mexican criminal groups are also retail distributors; however, no single group dominates at the retail level. Houston. Mexican DTOs and criminal groups are the primary marijuana wholesalers in Houston. Los Angeles. Most wholesale marijuana distributed in Los Angeles is domestically produced and distributed by local independent distributors. Mexican traffickers are the principal wholesale distributors of Mexico-produced marijuana in Los Angeles. Jamaican traffickers in the area also distribute wholesale Mexican marijuana, often supplying Jamaican criminal groups in the eastern United States. Miami. Wholesale and retail marijuana distributors in Miami are usually Hispanic (including Colombian, Cuban, Dominican, and Puerto Rican), Haitian, or African American. New York. Jamaican criminal groups are the most prominent marijuana distributors overall, particularly for wholesale and midlevel quantities; however, no single group dominates any distribution level. Persons associated with traditional organized crime and Mexican traffickers also are involved in wholesale and midlevel marijuana distribution. Phoenix/Tucson. Mexican DTOs and criminal groups are the principal wholesale distributors in both cities. Jamaican criminal groups are prominent wholesalers in Phoenix, often supplying Jamaican distributors in the eastern United States. To Top      To Contents     To Previous Page     To Next Page To Publications Page     To Home Page

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