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National Drug Intelligence Center  National Drug Threat Assessment 2005 Summary Report February 2005 Heroin Key Findings Trends and Developments    Availability     Demand    Production     Transportation    Distribution While the demand for heroin is significantly lower than for other drugs such as cocaine, methamphetamine, and marijuana, the consequences of heroin abuse are such that its abuse poses a significant drug threat. Slightly more than 310,000 persons aged 12 or older report past year heroin use in 2003, considerably lower than the number of individuals who report past year use of marijuana (25.2 million), cocaine (5.9 million), and methamphetamine (1.3 million).  Figure 8. Numbers of Persons Aged 12 or Older Reporting Past Year Use in Millions, 2003 d-link Source: National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Key Findings The availability of Southwest Asian heroin appears to have increased slightly in 2003, attributable partly to participation by certain groups (for example, Nigerian and Russian traffickers) in heroin transportation and wholesale distribution. However, compared with other types of heroin available in domestic markets, relatively little Southwest Asian heroin is destined for the United States, and  preliminary 2004 data indicate that availability of Southwest Asian heroin may be declining to pre-2003 levels.  Despite stable demand for heroin in the United States, the number of primary heroin treatment admissions continues to increase. Because heroin abusers typically abuse the drug for several years before seeking treatment, the increase likely is due to individuals seeking treatment who began abusing the drug in the mid- to late 1990s, when the demand for heroin increased significantly in the United States. In 2003 potential worldwide opium production and heroin production increased significantly, attributable overwhelmingly to increases in production in Afghanistan. Potential worldwide illicit opium production in 2003 was estimated at 3,757 metric tons, compared with 2,237 metric tons in 2002. Worldwide heroin production was estimated at 426.9 metric tons in 2003, compared with 244.7 metric tons in 2002. Moreover, 2004 estimates indicate a significant increase in illicit opium production and potential heroin production. (See Table 8.)  Figure 9. Heroin Admissions to Publicly Funded Treatment Facilities, 1992-2002 d-link Source: Treatment Episode Data Set.  To Top      To Contents Table 8. Potential Worldwide Heroin Production, in Metric Tons, 1999-2003     1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Mexico  8.8 4.5 10.7 6.8 11.9 NA* Colombia  8.7  8.7 11.4 8.5 7.8 NA* Afghanistan  218.0 365.0 7.0 150.0 337.0 582.0 Burma  104.0 103.0 82.0 60.0 46.0 28.0 Laos  13.0 20.0 19.0 17.0 19.0 5.0 Pakistan  4.0 19.0 0.5 0.5 5.2 NA* Thailand  0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 NA NA* Vietnam  1.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 NA NA* Total  358.1 522.2 132.6 244.7 426.9 NA*  Source: Crime and Narcotics Center. * Estimates for 2004 are not completed. The smuggling of South American heroin across the Southwest Border--particularly through Texas--increased significantly in 2003. According to EPIC data, the amount of South American heroin seized in the U.S. Arrival Zone in Texas surpassed the amount seized in New Jersey, historically the state reporting the third highest amount of South American heroin seized, after New York and Florida.  Heroin use in Chicago suburban areas has increased, resulting in a rise in the consequences of heroin abuse in Chicago, a PMA for multiple types of heroin. This increase is most evident among suburban users, particularly those under 25 years of age, who are experimenting with and  becoming addicted to heroin. To Top      To Contents     Trends and Developments Availability The availability of Southwest Asian heroin in the United States appears to have increased slightly in 2003. According to EPIC, wholesale Southwest Asian heroin seizures in the U.S. Arrival Zone in FY2003 exceeded the amount of Mexican heroin seizures, making Southwest Asian heroin second only to South American heroin in the amount seized within the U.S. Arrival Zone--an indication of the increased availability of Southwest Asian heroin. However, anecdotal law enforcement reporting indicates that, nationally, Mexican heroin remains much more widely available. Moreover, the amount of heroin identified as Southwest Asian by the DEA Heroin Signature Program (HSP)1 increased from 7 percent of the total heroin analyzed by weight in 2001 to 10 percent in 2002. Finally, reporting from DEA Field Divisions in Chicago, St. Louis, and New York indicates that the availability of Southwest Asian heroin has increased in their jurisdictions.  NDIC Comment: Law enforcement reporting indicates that the increased availability of Southwest Asian heroin in 2003 was attributable partly to participation by certain groups in heroin transportation and wholesale distribution. For example, West African traffickers, primarily Nigerians, are responsible for a resurgence in the availability of Southwest Asian heroin in Chicago. According to DEA, arrests and seizures over the past few years have significantly interrupted Nigerian and other West African traffickers' ability to transport Southeast Asian heroin to Chicago. As a result, these traffickers more frequently obtain heroin in Pakistan, increasing the availability of Southwest Asian heroin. According to the DEA St. Louis Field Division, at least some of the Southwest Asian heroin available in its jurisdiction is transported to the area from Chicago. DEA New York reports that the increasing availability of Southwest Asian heroin in its jurisdiction is due partly to Russian and East European trafficking organizations. These organizations are able to obtain Southwest Asian heroin at a price lower than the price at which their counterparts can obtain South American heroin, and they can rely on an increasingly dependable network of distributors in some areas of New York City.    Despite the data and anecdotal reporting that showed increased availability of Southwest Asian heroin in the United States during 2003, overall availability of Southwest Asian heroin likely remains far lower than that of South American or Mexican heroin. Moreover, preliminary 2004 data indicate that availability of Southwest Asian heroin may be receding to pre-2003 levels.        Demand National-level drug prevalence studies indicate that the overall demand for heroin in the United States is relatively stable; however, the number of primary heroin treatment admissions continues to increase. According to TEDS data, the number of primary heroin treatment admissions increased steadily each year since 1992 and increased from 277,911 in 2001 to 285,677 in 2002. NDIC Comment: The increase in treatment admissions for heroin despite stabilizing demand may be due to the fact that heroin abusers typically abuse the drug for several years before seeking treatment. Thus, many individuals currently seeking treatment likely began abusing the drug in the mid- to late 1990s when the demand for heroin increased significantly in the United States. According to TEDS data, the average number of years of heroin use for clients entering treatment for the first time in 2000 and 2001 was 12.9 and 12.3 years, respectively, for abusers whose primary route of administration was injection, and 11.1 and 11.6 years for users whose primary route of administration was inhalation. To Top      To Contents Production After decreasing significantly from 2000 to 2001, worldwide illicit opium production increased in 2002 and 2003; the production in 2003 (3,757 mt) was almost double that in 2002 (2,237 mt). Likewise, potential heroin production decreased from 522.2 metric tons in 2000 to 132.6 metric tons in 2001 before increasing to 244.7 metric tons in 2002 and 426.9 metric tons in 2003. Moreover, 2004 estimates indicate a significant increase in illicit opium production and potential heroin production. (See Table 8.)  NDIC Comment: The significant increases in potential worldwide opium and heroin production estimates for 2002 and 2003 are attributable overwhelmingly to increases in production in Afghanistan. Potential opium production in Afghanistan increased from 63 metric tons in 2001, to 1,278 metric tons in 2002, and 2,865 metric tons in 2003. Potential heroin production estimates for Afghanistan increased from 7 metric tons in 2001, to 150 metric tons in 2002, and 337 metric tons in 2003. Conversely, potential opium and heroin production estimates for Burma--the primary source of Southeast Asian heroin--have decreased each year since 2000. As a result of these changes, the predominant source of Asian heroin in the United States appears to be shifting from Southeast Asia to Southwest Asia. However, the market for white powder heroin will likely continue to be dominated by heroin from South America. In fact, the increased heroin production in Afghanistan is not likely to result in increased heroin availability in the United States because only a small amount of Southwest Asian heroin is transported to the United States for subsequent distribution.        Transportation The amount of South American heroin seized in the U.S. Arrival Zone along the Southwest Border--particularly Texas--increased significantly in 2003. According to EPIC, the amount of South American heroin seized in the U.S. Arrival Zone in Texas surpassed the amount seized in New Jersey, historically the state reporting the third highest amount of South American heroin seized, after New York and Florida.  NDIC Comment: South American heroin typically is smuggled into the United States by couriers aboard commercial flights to international airports in New York and Miami. However, law enforcement reporting indicates that traffickers are transporting increasing amounts of South American heroin across the Southwest Border. Law enforcement reporting indicates that Colombian DTOs are increasingly relying on Mexican DTOs and criminal groups to transport South American heroin to the United States much as they rely on Mexican DTOs to transport cocaine. Most of the South American heroin transported across the Southwest Border likely is destined for markets in the eastern United States, including Chicago and New York.         Distribution Heroin distribution in Chicago, a PMA for multiple types of heroin, has expanded to many outlying communities, resulting in an increase in the consequences of heroin abuse in the Chicago area. In fact, national-level consequence data indicate that rates of heroin-related treatment admissions, ED mentions, and deaths in Chicago are among the highest in the nation and continue to increase.  NDIC Comment: A primary factor contributing to increasing consequences of heroin abuse in Chicago is the increase in the number of suburban users, particularly those under 25 years of age, who are experimenting with and becoming addicted to heroin. The number of suburban users began to increase in the early 1990s, when high purity South American heroin became available in Chicago. Because of the high purity, new users were able to snort the drug, avoiding the stigma and health consequences associated with injection drug use. However, TEDS data show that injection drug use increased significantly in the Chicago metropolitan statistical area from 1997 through 2000, possibly the result of these suburban users transitioning to injection. Although the majority of injection drug users were over 35, the largest increase in the rate of injection drug use was for those aged 24 and younger. Injection drug use results in serious health consequences that have contributed, and will continue to contribute, to the increasing number of heroin-related treatment admissions, ED mentions, and deaths in the Chicago area.  Heroin Primary Market Areas Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York are the three PMAs for heroin distributed throughout the United States because abuse levels are high in these cities and because wholesale quantities of heroin are distributed from these cities to heroin markets throughout the country. Other cities that are not PMAs but are significant markets in terms of abuse or distribution include Baltimore, Detroit, Miami, Newark, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. Boston also is a very significant heroin market and previously was designated a PMA for the drug; however, Boston does not appear to be a heroin distribution center equal to Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. In fact, law enforcement reporting indicates that most wholesale and midlevel heroin distributors in New England states are supplied directly by New York City-based wholesale distributors rather than Boston-based wholesalers. Chicago. The consequences of heroin abuse in Chicago and the surrounding area are reflected in high rates of ED mentions, heroin-related overdose deaths, treatment admissions, and arrestees testing positive for opiates. Colombian criminal groups are the primary wholesale distributors of South American heroin in Chicago, although they increasingly rely on Mexican DTOs and criminal groups to transport and distribute wholesale quantities of the drug. Nigerian criminal groups are the primary wholesale distributors of Southeast Asian and, increasingly, Southwest Asian heroin.  Los Angeles. Although Los Angeles historically has demonstrated high levels of heroin abuse, some data indicate that the effects of that abuse have lessened over the past several years. Mexican criminal groups are the primary wholesale distributors of Mexican heroin in Los Angeles.  New York. The negative effects of heroin abuse are significant in New York as evidenced by emergency department, mortality, treatment, and arrest data. Colombian criminal groups are the primary wholesale distributors of South American heroin in New York. Dominican criminal groups and, increasingly, Mexican criminal groups also are significant transporters and wholesale distributors of South American heroin. Ethnic Chinese and West African criminal groups are the primary wholesale distributors of Southeast Asian heroin, and Pakistani criminal groups are the primary wholesale distributors of Southwest Asian heroin in New York. To Top      To Contents     End Note 1. Under the Heroin Signature Program (HSP), the DEA Special Testing and Research Laboratory analyzes heroin samples from POE seizures, as well as a random sample of other seizures and purchases submitted to DEA laboratories, to determine source areas. Although HSP results do not directly correspond to an assessment of the market share in the United States, they provide indicators of market trends. To Top      To Contents     To Previous Page     To Next Page To Publications Page     To Home Page

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