Bibliography - Keith W Dixon

1. Meehl, G A., Ronald J Stouffer, and Keith W Dixon, et al., in press: Decadal Prediction: Can it be skillful?. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 3/09.
   [ Abstract ]

   A new field of study, “decadal prediction”, is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10-30 years. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this timescale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence timeevolving regional climate at the decadal timescale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internallygenerated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally-generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated CMIP5 experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC AR5. These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next five years.

2. Delworth, Thomas L., and Keith W Dixon, 2006: Have anthropogenic aerosols delayed a greenhouse gas-induced weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation? Geophysical Research Letters, 33(2), L02606, doi:10.1029/2005GL024980.
   [ Abstract ]

   In many climate model simulations using realistic, time-varying climate change forcing agents for the 20th and 21st centuries, the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) weakens in the 21st century, with little change in the 20th century. Here we use a comprehensive climate model to explore the impact of various climate change forcing agents on the THC. We conduct ensembles of integrations with subsets of climate change forcing agents. Increasing greenhouse gases – in isolation – produce a significant THC weakening in the late 20th century, but this change is partially offset by increasing anthropogenic aerosols, which tend to strengthen the THC. The competition between increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols thus produces no significant THC change in our 20th century simulations when all climate forcings are included. The THC weakening becomes significant several decades into the 21st century, when the effects of increasing greenhouse gases overwhelm the aerosol effects.

3. Delworth, Thomas L., Anthony J Broccoli, Anthony Rosati, Ronald J Stouffer, Ventakramani Balaji, J A Beesley, W F Cooke, Keith W Dixon, John Dunne, Krista A Dunne, J W Durachta, Kirsten L Findell, Paul Ginoux, Anand Gnanadesikan, C Tony Gordon, Stephen Griffies, Rich Gudgel, Matthew J Harrison, Isaac Held, Richard S Hemler, Larry Horowitz, Stephen A Klein, Thomas R Knutson, P J Kushner, A R Langenhorst, H C Lee, Shian-Jiann Lin, Jian Lu, S Malyshev, P C D Milly, V Ramaswamy, J L Russell, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Elena Shevliakova, Joseph J Sirutis, Michael J Spelman, William F Stern, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, Bruce Wyman, Fanrong Zeng, and Rong Zhang, 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics. Journal of Climate, 19(5), doi:10.1175/JCLI3629.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). Manuscript received 8 December 2004, in final form 18 March 2005

4. Gnanadesikan, Anand, Keith W Dixon, Stephen Griffies, Ventakramani Balaji, M Barreiro, J A Beesley, W F Cooke, Thomas L Delworth, R Gerdes, Matthew J Harrison, Isaac Held, William J Hurlin, H C Lee, Z Liang, G Nong, Ronald C Pacanowski, Anthony Rosati, J L Russell, Bonita L Samuels, Qian Song, Michael J Spelman, Ronald J Stouffer, C Sweeney, G A Vecchi, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, Fanrong Zeng, Rong Zhang, and John Dunne, 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part II: The baseline ocean simulation. Journal of Climate, 19(5), doi:10.1175/JCLI3630.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   The current generation of coupled climate models run at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) as part of the Climate Change Science Program contains ocean components that differ in almost every respect from those contained in previous generations of GFDL climate models. This paper summarizes the new physical features of the models and examines the simulations that they produce. Of the two new coupled climate model versions 2.1 (CM2.1) and 2.0 (CM2.0), the CM2.1 model represents a major improvement over CM2.0 in most of the major oceanic features examined, with strikingly lower drifts in hydrographic fields such as temperature and salinity, more realistic ventilation of the deep ocean, and currents that are closer to their observed values. Regional analysis of the differences between the models highlights the importance of wind stress in determining the circulation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. At present, major errors in both models are associated with Northern Hemisphere Mode Waters and outflows from overflows, particularly the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea.

5. Knutson, Thomas R., Thomas L Delworth, Keith W Dixon, Isaac Held, Jian Lu, V Ramaswamy, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, G Stenchikov, and Ronald J Stouffer, 2006: Assessment of Twentieth-Century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. Journal of Climate, 19(9), doi:10.1175/JCLI3709.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   Historical climate simulations of the period 1861–2000 using two new Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate models (CM2.0 and CM2.1) are compared with observed surface temperatures. All-forcing runs include the effects of changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, sulfates, black and organic carbon, volcanic aerosols, solar flux, and land cover. Indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on clouds and precipitation processes are not included. Ensembles of size 3 (CM2.0) and 5 (CM2.1) with all forcings are analyzed, along with smaller ensembles of natural-only and anthropogenic-only forcing, and multicentury control runs with no external forcing. Observed warming trends on the global scale and in many regions are simulated more realistically in the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs than in experiments using natural-only forcing or no external forcing. In the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs, the model shows some tendency for too much twentieth-century warming in lower latitudes and too little warming in higher latitudes. Differences in Arctic Oscillation behavior between models and observations contribute substantially to an underprediction of the observed warming over northern Asia. In the all-forcing and natural-only forcing runs, a temporary global cooling in the models during the 1880s not evident in the observed temperature records is volcanically forced. El Niño interactions complicate comparisons of observed and simulated temperature records for the El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo eruptions during the early 1980s and early 1990s. The simulations support previous findings that twentieth-century global warming has resulted from a combination of natural and anthropogenic forcing, with anthropogenic forcing being the dominant cause of the pronounced late-twentieth-century warming. The regional results provide evidence for an emergent anthropogenic warming signal over many, if not most, regions of the globe. The warming signal has emerged rather monotonically in the Indian Ocean/western Pacific warm pool during the past half-century. The tropical and subtropical North Atlantic and the tropical eastern Pacific are examples of regions where the anthropogenic warming signal now appears to be emerging from a background of more substantial multidecadal variability.

6. Russell, J L., Keith W Dixon, Anand Gnanadesikan, Ronald J Stouffer, and J Robert Toggweiler, 2006: The Southern Hemisphere westerlies in a warming orld: Propping open the door to the deep ocean. Journal of Climate, 19(24), doi:10.1175/JCLI3984.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   A coupled climate model with poleward-intensified westerly winds simulates significantly higher storage of heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide by the Southern Ocean in the future when compared with the storage in a model with initially weaker, equatorward-biased westerlies. This difference results from the larger outcrop area of the dense waters around Antarctica and more vigorous divergence, which remains robust even as rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels induce warming that reduces the density of surface waters in the Southern Ocean. These results imply that the impact of warming on the stratification of the global ocean may be reduced by the poleward intensification of the westerlies, allowing the ocean to remove additional heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

7. Russell, J L., Ronald J Stouffer, and Keith W Dixon, 2006: Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean Circulations in IPCC Coupled Model Control Simulations. Journal of Climate, 19(18), doi:10.1175/JCLI3869.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   The analyses presented here focus on the Southern Ocean as simulated in a set of global coupled climate model control experiments conducted by several international climate modeling groups. Dominated by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the vast Southern Ocean can influence large-scale surface climate features on various time scales. Its climatic relevance stems in part from it being the region where most of the transformation of the World Ocean’s water masses occurs. In climate change experiments that simulate greenhouse gas–induced warming, Southern Ocean air–sea heat fluxes and three-dimensional circulation patterns make it a region where much of the future oceanic heat storage takes place, though the magnitude of that heat storage is one of the larger sources of uncertainty associated with the transient climate response in such model projections. Factors such as the Southern Ocean’s wind forcing, heat, and salt budgets are linked to the structure and transport of the ACC in ways that have not been expressed clearly in the literature. These links are explored here in a coupled model context by analyzing a sizable suite of preindustrial control experiments associated with the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report. A framework is developed that uses measures of coupled model simulation characteristics, primarily those related to the Southern Ocean wind forcing and water mass properties, to allow one to categorize, and to some extent predict, which models do better or worse at simulating the Southern Ocean and why. Hopefully, this framework will also lead to increased understanding of the ocean’s response to climate changes.

8. Stouffer, Ronald J., Thomas L Delworth, Keith W Dixon, Rich Gudgel, Isaac Held, Richard S Hemler, Thomas R Knutson, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Michael J Spelman, Michael Winton, Anthony J Broccoli, H C Lee, Fanrong Zeng, and Brian J Soden, 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part IV: Idealized Climate Response. Journal of Climate, 19(5), doi:10.1175/JCLI3632.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   The climate response to idealized changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by the new GFDL climate model (CM2) is documented. This new model is very different from earlier GFDL models in its parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes, numerical algorithms, and resolution. The model was constructed to be useful for both seasonal-to-interannual predictions and climate change research. Unlike previous versions of the global coupled GFDL climate models, CM2 does not use flux adjustments to maintain a stable control climate. Results from two model versions, Climate Model versions 2.0 (CM2.0) and 2.1 (CM2.1), are presented. Two atmosphere–mixed layer ocean or slab models, Slab Model versions 2.0 (SM2.0) and 2.1 (SM2.1), are constructed corresponding to CM2.0 and CM2.1. Using the SM2 models to estimate the climate sensitivity, it is found that the equilibrium globally averaged surface air temperature increases 2.9 (SM2.0) and 3.4 K (SM2.1) for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. When forced by a 1% per year CO2 increase, the surface air temperature difference around the time of CO2 doubling [transient climate response (TCR)] is about 1.6 K for both coupled model versions (CM2.0 and CM2.1). The simulated warming is near the median of the responses documented for the climate models used in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Third Assessment Report (TAR). The thermohaline circulation (THC) weakened in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. By the time of CO2 doubling, the weakening in CM2.1 is larger than that found in CM2.0: 7 and 4 Sv (1 Sv 106 m3 s−1), respectively. However, the THC in the control integration of CM2.1 is stronger than in CM2.0, so that the percentage change in the THC between the two versions is more similar. The average THC change for the models presented in the TAR is about 3 or 4 Sv; however, the range across the model results is very large, varying from a slight increase (+2 Sv) to a large decrease (−10 Sv).

9. Stouffer, Ronald J., Keith W Dixon, Michael J Spelman, William J Hurlin, J Yin, J M Gregory, A J Weaver, M Eby, G M Flato, D Y Robitaille, H Hasumi, A Oka, A Hu, J H Jungclaus, I V Kamenkovich, A Levermann, M Montoya, S Murakami, S Nawrath, W R Peltier, G Vettoretti, A P Sokolov, and S L Weber, 2006: Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to Past and Future Climate Changes. Journal of Climate, 19(8), doi:10.1175/JCLI3689.11.
   [ Abstract ]

   The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv 106 m3 s−1) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate some weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

10. Gregory, J M., Keith W Dixon, Ronald J Stouffer, A J Weaver, E Driesschaert, M Eby, T Fichefet, H Hasumi, A Hu, J H Jungclaus, I V Kamenkovich, A Levermann, M Montoya, S Murakami, S Nawrath, A Oka, A P Sokolov, and R B Thorpe, 2005: A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L12703, doi:10.1029/2005GL023209.
    [ Abstract ]

    As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to time-dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, despite the fairly rapid increase and high final concentration of CO2. The models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No model shows a cooling anywhere, because the greenhouse warming is dominant.

11. Griffies, Stephen, Anand Gnanadesikan, Keith W Dixon, John Dunne, R Gerdes, Matthew J Harrison, Anthony Rosati, J L Russell, Bonita L Samuels, Michael J Spelman, Michael Winton, and Rong Zhang, 2005: Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations. Ocean Science, 1, 45-79.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4) of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1) tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2) partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3) more accurate equation of state, (4) three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5) incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6) neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7) staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8) anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9) parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10) incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11) transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical "virtual tracer flux" methods, (12) parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

12. Santer, B D., T M L Wigley, C Mears, F J Wentz, Stephen A Klein, D J Seidel, K E Taylor, P W Thorne, M F Wehner, P J Gleckler, J S Boyle, W D Collins, Keith W Dixon, C Doutriaux, M Free, Q Fu, J E Hansen, G S Jones, R Ruedy, T R Karl, John R Lanzante, G A Meehl, V Ramaswamy, G Russell, and G A Schmidt, 2005: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science, 309(5740), doi:10.1126/science.1114867.
    [ Abstract ]

    The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

13. Broccoli, Anthony J., Keith W Dixon, Thomas L Delworth, Thomas R Knutson, Ronald J Stouffer, and Fanrong Zeng, 2003: Twentieth-century temperature and precipitation trends in ensemble climate simulations including natural and anthropogenic forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D24), 4798, doi:10.1029/2003JD003812.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    We present results from a series of ensemble integrations of a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model for the period 1865-1997. Each ensemble consists of three integrations initialized from different points in a long-running GFDL R30 coupled model control simulation. The first ensemble includes time-varying forcing from greenhouse gases only. In the remaining three ensembles, forcings from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability, and volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere are added progressively, such that the fourth ensemble uses all four of these forcings. The effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols are represented by changes in surface albedo, and the effects of volcanic aerosols are represented by latitude-dependent perturbations in incident solar radiation. Comparisons with observations reveal that the addition of the natural forcings (solar and volcanic) improves the simulation of global multidecadal trends in temperature, precipitation, and ocean heat content. Solar and volcanic forcings are important contributors to early twentieth century warming. Volcanic forcing reduces the warming simulated for the late twentieth century. Interdecadal variations in global mean surface air temperature from the ensemble of experiments with all four forcings are very similar to observed variations during most of the twentieth century. The improved agreement of simulated and observed temperature trends when natural climate forcings are included supports the climatic importance of variations in radiative forcing during the twentieth century.

14. Dixon, Keith W., Thomas L Delworth, Thomas R Knutson, Michael J Spelman, and Ronald J Stouffer, 2003: A comparison of climate change simulations produced by two GFDL coupled climate models. Global & Planetary Change, 37(1-2), 81-102.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The transient responses of two versions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model to a climate change forcing scenario are examined. The same computer codes were used to construct the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface components of the two models, and they employ the same types of sub-grid-scale parameterization schemes. The two model versions differ primarily, but not solely, in their spatial resolution. Comparisons are made of results from six coarse-resolution R15 climate change experiments and three medium-resolution R30 experiments in which levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulfate aerosols are specified to change over time. The two model versions yield similar global mean surface air temperature responses until the second half of the 21st century, after which the R15 model exhibits a somewhat larger response. Polar amplification of the Northern Hemisphere's warming signal is more pronounced in the R15 model, in part due to the R15's cooler control climate, which allows for larger snow and ice albedo positive feedbacks. Both models project a substantial weakening of the North Atlantic overturning circulation and a large reduction in the volume of Arctic sea ice to occur in the 21st century. Relative to their respective control integrations, there is a greater reduction of Arctic sea ice in the R15 experiments than in the R30 simulations as the climate system warms. The globally averaged annual mean precipitation rate is simulated to increase over time, with both model versions projecting an increase of about 8% to occur by the decade of the 2080s. While the global mean precipitation response is quite similar in the two models, regional differences exist, with the R30 model displaying larger increases in equatorial regions.

15. Karoly, D J., K Braganza, P Stott, M Arblaster, G A Meehl, Anthony J Broccoli, and Keith W Dixon, 2003: Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science, 302(5648), 1200-1203.
    [ Abstract PDF Supplemental ]

    Several indices of large-scale patterns of surface temperature variation were used to investigate climate change in North America over the 20th century. The observed variability of these indices was simulated well by a number of climate models. Comparison of index trends in observations and model simulations shows that North American temperature changes from 1950 to 1999 were unlikely to be due to natural climate variation alone. Observed trends over this period are consistent with simulations that include anthropogenic forcing from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. However, most of the observed warming from 1900 to 1949 was likely due to natural climate variation.

16. Delworth, Thomas L., Ronald J Stouffer, Keith W Dixon, Michael J Spelman, Thomas R Knutson, Anthony J Broccoli, P J Kushner, and Richard T Wetherald, 2002: Review of simulations of climate variability and change with the GFDL R30 coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 19(7), 555-574.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    A review is presented of the development and simulation characteristics of the most recent version of a global coupled model for climate variability and change studies at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, as well as a review of the climate change experiments performed with the model. The atmospheric portion of the coupled model uses a spectral technique with rhomboidal 30 truncation, which corresponds to a transform grid with a resolution of approximately 3.75° longitude by 2.25° latitude. The ocean component has a resolution of approximately 1.875° longitude by 2.25° latitude. Relatively simple formulations of river routing, sea ice, and land surface processes are included. Two primary versions of the coupled model are described, differing in their initialization techniques and in the specification of sub-grid scale oceanic mixing of heat and salt. For each model a stable control integration of near milennial scale duration has been conducted, and the characteristics of both the time-mean and variability are described and compared to observations. A review is presented of a suite of climate change experiments conducted with these models using both idealized and realistic estimates of time-varying radiative forcing. Some experiments include estimates of forcing from past changes in volcanic aerosols and solar irradiance. The experiments performed are described, and some of the central findings are highlighted. In particular, the observed increase in global mean surface temperature is largely contained within the spread of simulated global mean temperatures from an ensemble of experiments using observationally-derived estimates of the changes in radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols.

17. Church, J A., J M Gregory, P Huybrechts, M Kuhn, K Lambeck, M T Nhuan, D Qin, P L Woodworth, O A Anisimov, F O Bryan, A Cazenave, Keith W Dixon, B B Fitzharris, G M Flato, A Ganopolski, V Gornitz, J A Lowe, A Noda, J M Oberhuber, S P O'Farrell, A Ohmura, M Oppenheimer, W R Peltier, S C B Raper, C Ritz, G Russell, E Schlosser, C K Shum, T F Stocker, Ronald J Stouffer, R S W van der Wal, R Voss, E C Wiebe, M Wild, D J Wingham, and H J Zwally, 2001: Changes in sea level In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 640-693.
18. Gregory, J M., J A Church, G J Boer, Keith W Dixon, G M Flato, D R Jackett, J A Lowe, S P O'Farrell, M M Rienecker, G Russell, Ronald J Stouffer, and Michael Winton, 2001: Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100. Climate Dynamics, 18(3/4), 225-240.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario 1892a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990-2090 it amounts to 0.20-0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modeling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.

19. McAveney, B, Anthony J Broccoli, Keith W Dixon, and Ronald J Stouffer, et al., 2001: Model evaluation In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 472-523.
20. Wetherald, Richard T., Ronald J Stouffer, and Keith W Dixon, 2001: Committed warming and its implications for climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 28(8), 1535-1538.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Time lags between changes in radiative forcing and the resulting simulated climate responses are investigated in a set of transient climate change experiments. Both surface air temperature (SAT) and soil moisture responses are examined. Results suggest that if the radiative forcing is held fixed at today's levels, the global mean SAT will rise an additional 1.0K before equilibrating. This unrealized warming commitment is larger than the 0.6K warming observed since 1990. The coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM's transient SAT response for the year 2000 is estimated to be similar to its equilibration response to 1980 radiative forcings - a lag of ~20 years. Both the time lag and the warming commitment are projected to increase in the future, and depend on the model's climate sensitivity, oceanic heat uptake, and the forcing scenario. These results imply that much of the warming due to current greenhouse gas levels is yet to be realized.

21. Delworth, Thomas L., and Keith W Dixon, 2000: Implications of the recent trend in the Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation for the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. Journal of Climate, 13(21), 3721-3727.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Most projections of greenhouse gas-induced climate change indicate a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic in response to increased freshening and warming in the subpolar region. These changes reduce high-latitude upper-ocean density and therefore weaken the THC. Using ensembles of numerical experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is found that this weakening could be delayed by several decades in response to a sustained upward trend in the Arctic/North Atlantic oscillation during winter, such as has been observed over the last 30 years. The stronger winds over the North Atlantic associated with this trend extract more heat from the ocean, thereby cooling and increasing the density of the upper ocean and thus opposing the previously described weakening of the THC. This result is of particular importance if the positive trend in the Arctic/North Atlantic oscillation is a response to increasing greenhouse gases, as has been recently suggested.

22. Delworth, Thomas L., Anthony J Broccoli, Keith W Dixon, Isaac Held, Thomas R Knutson, P J Kushner, Michael J Spelman, Ronald J Stouffer, K Y Vinnikov, and Richard T Wetherald, 1999: Coupled climate modelling at GFDL: Recent accomplishments and future plans. Clivar Exchanges, 4(4), 15-20.
    [ PDF ]
23. Dixon, Keith W., Thomas L Delworth, Michael J Spelman, and Ronald J Stouffer, 1999: The influence of transient surface fluxes on North Atlantic overturning in a coupled GCM climate change experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 26(17), 2749-2752.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The mechanism by which the model-simulated North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) weakens in response to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is investigated through the use of a set of five multi-century experiments. Using a coarse resolution version of the GFDL coupled climate model, the role of various surface fluxes in weakening the THC is assessed. Changes in net surface freshwater fluxes (precipitation, evaporation, and runoff from land) are found to be the dominant cause for the model's THC weakening. Surface heat flux changes brought about by rising GHG levels also contribute to THC weakening, but are of secondary importance. Wind stress variations have negligible impact on the THC's strength in the transient GHG experiment.

24. Dixon, Keith W., and John R Lanzante, 1999: Global mean surface air temperature and North Atlantic overturning in a suite of coupled GCM climate change experiments. Geophysical Research Letters, 26(13), 1885-1888.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The effects of model initial conditions and the starting time of transient radiative forcings on global mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) are studied in a set of coupled climate GCM experiments. Nine climate change scenario experiments, in which the effective levels of greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols vary in time, are initialized from various points in a long control model run. The time at which the transition from constant to transient radiative forcing takes place is varied in the scenario runs, occurring at points representing either year 1766, 1866 or 1916. The sensitivity of projected 21st century global mean SATs and the THC to the choice of radiative forcing transition point is small, and is similar in magnitude to the variability arising from variations in the coupled GCM's initial three-dimensional state.

25. Knutson, Thomas R., Thomas L Delworth, Keith W Dixon, and Ronald J Stouffer, 1999: Model assessment of regional surface temperature trends (1949-1997). Journal of Geophysical Research, 104(D24), 30,981-30,996.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Analyses are conducted to assess whether simulated trends in SST and land surface air temperature from two versions of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model are consistent with the geographical distribution of observed trends over the period 1949-1997. The simulated trends are derived from model experiments with both constant and time-varying radiative forcing. The models analyed are low-resolution (R15, ~4º) and medium-resolution (R30, ~2º) versions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model. Internal climate variability is estimated from long control integrations of the models with no change of external forcing. The radiatively forced trends are based on ensembles of integrations using estimated past concentrations of greenhouse gases and direct effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols (G+S). For the regional assessment, the observed trends at each grid point with adequate temporal coverage during 1949-1997 are first compared with the R15 and R30 model unforced internal variability. Nearly 50% of the analyzed areas have observed warming trends exceeding the 95th percentile of trends from the control simulations. These results suggest that regional warming trends over much of the globe during 1949-1997 are very unlikely to have occurred due to internal climate variability alone and suggest a role for a sustained positive thermal forcing such as increasing greenhouse gases. The observed trends are then compared with the trend distributions obtained by combining the ensemble mean G+S forced trends with the internal variability "trend" distributions from the control runs. Better agreement is found between the ensemble mean G+S trends and the observed trends than between the model internal variability alone and the observed trends. However, the G+S trends are still significantly different from the observed trends over about 30% of the areas analyzed. Reasons for these regional inconsistencies between the simulated and the observed trends include possible deficiencies in (1) specified radiative forcings, (2) simulated responses to specified radiative forcings, (3) simulation of internal climate variability, or (4) observed temperature records.

26. Stouffer, Ronald J., and Keith W Dixon, 1998: Initialization of coupled models for use in climate studies: A review In Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling, WMO/TD No. 865, Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization, I.1-I.8.
27. Dixon, Keith W., J L Bullister, R H Gammon, and Ronald J Stouffer, 1996: Examining a coupled climate model using CFC-11 as an ocean tracer. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(15), 1957-1960.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Anthropogenic CFC-11 dissolved in seawater is used to analyze ocean ventilation simulated in a global coupled air-sea model. Modeled CFC-11 distributions are compared to observations gathered on three Southern Hemisphere research cruises. The total amount of CFC-11 absorbed by the model's Southern Ocean is realistic, though some notable differences in the vertical structure exist. Observed and simulated CFC-11 distributions are qualitatively consistent with the coupled model's predictions that the ocean may delay greenhouse gas-induced warming of surface air temperatures at high southern latitudes. The sensitivity of model-predicted CFC-11 levels in the deep Southern Ocean to the choice of gas exchange parameterization suggests that quantitative assessments of model performance based upon simulated CFC-11 distributions can be limited by air-sea gas flux uncertainties in areas of rapid ocean ventilation. Such sensitivities can complicate the quantitative aspects of CFC-11 comparisons between models and observations, and between different models.

28. Toggweiler, J R., Keith W Dixon, and W Broecker, 1991: The Peru upwelling and the ventilation of the South Pacific thermocline. Journal of Geophysical Research, 96(C11), 20,467-20,497.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    A reconstruction of the prebomb Δ ¹⁴C distribution in the tropical Pacific using data from old coral heads shows that surface waters with the lowest Δ ¹⁴C content are found distinctly south of the equator. Prebomb, low-Δ ¹⁴C surface water appears to owe its origin to the upwelling of ~15°C water off the coast of Peru. The low-Δ ¹⁴C water upwelling off Peru is shown to be derived from the "13° Water" thermostad (11° - 14°C) of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Untritiated water in the lower part of the undercurrent had nearly the same Δ ¹⁴C content during the Geochemical Ocean Sections Study (GEOSECS) as the prebomb growth bands in Druffel's (1981) Galapagos coral. Similar Δ ¹⁴C levels were observed in 9° - 10°C water in the southwest Pacific thermocline in the late 1950s. We suggest that the low-Δ 14C water upwelling off Peru and the thermostad water in the undercurrent both originate as ~8°C water in the subantarctic region of the southwest Pacific. This prescription points to the "lighter variety" of Subantarctic Mode Water (7° - 10°C) as a possible source. Because prebomb Δ ¹⁴C is so weakly forced by exchange of carbon isotopes with the atmosphere, thermocline levels of Δ ¹⁴C should be particularly unaffected by diapycnal mixing with warmer overlying water types. We argue that successively less dense features of the South Pacific thermocline, like the Subantarctic Mode Water, the equatorial 13°C Water, and the Peru upwelling, may be part of a single process of thermocline ventilation. Each evolves from the other by diapycnal alteration, while prebomb Δ ¹⁴C is nearly conserved. Detailed comparisons are made between the coral Δ ¹⁴C distribution and a model simulation of radiocarbon in Toggweiler et al. (1989). While the Δ ¹⁴C data suggest a southern hemisphere thermocline origin for the equatorial Δ ¹⁴C minimum, the model produces its Δ ¹⁴C minimum by upwelling abyssal water to the surface via the equatorial divergence. In an appendix to the paper we present a new set of coral Δ ¹⁴C measurements produced over the last 10 years at Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and compile a post -1950 set of published coral Δ ¹⁴C measurements for use in model validation studies.

29. Toggweiler, J R., Keith W Dixon, and Kirk Bryan, 1989: Simulations of radiocarbon in a coarse-resolution world ocean model 1. Steady state prebomb distributions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 94(C6), 8217-8242.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper presents the results of five numerical simulations of the radiocarbon distribution in the ocean using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory primitive equation world ocean general circulation model. The model has a 4.5 degree latitude by 3.75 degree longitude grid, 12 vertical levels, and realistic continental boundaries and bottom topography. The model is forced at the surface by observed, annually averaged temperatures, salinities, and wind stresses. There are no chemical transformations or transport of ¹⁴C by biological processes in the model. Each simulation in this paper has been run out the equivalent of several thousand years to simulate the natural, steady state distribution of ¹⁴C in the ocean. In a companion paper the final state of these simulations is used as the starting point for simulations of the ocean's transient uptake of bomb-produced ¹⁴C. The model reproduces the mid-depth ¹⁴C minimum observed in the North Pacific and the strong front near 45 degrees S between old, deep Pacific waters and younger circumpolar waters. In the Atlantic, the model's deep ¹⁴C distribution is much too strongly layered with relatively old water from the Antarctic penetrating into the northern reaches of the North Atlantic basin. Two thirds of the decay of ¹⁴C between 35 degrees S and 35 degrees N is balanced by local ¹⁴C input from the atmosphere and downward transport by vertical mixing (both diffusion and advective stirring). Only one third is balanced by transport of ¹⁴C from high latitudes. A moderately small mixing coefficient of 0.3 cm² s^-1 adequately parameterizes vertical diffusion in the upper kilometer. Spatial variation in gas exchange rates is found to have a negligible effect on deepwater radiocarbon values. Ventilation of the circumpolar region is organized in the model as a deep overturning cell which penetrates as much as 3500 m below the surface. While allowing the circumpolar deep water to be relatively well ventilated, the overturning cell restricts the ventilation of the deep Pacific and Indian basins to the north. This study utilizes three different realizations of the ocean circulation. One is generated by a purely prognostic model, in which only surface temperatures and salinities are restored to observed values. Two are generated by a semidiagnostic model, in which interior temperatures and salinities are restored toward observed values with a 1/50 year^-1 time constant. The prognostic version is found to produce a clearly superior deep circulation in spite of producing interior temperatures and salinities which deviate very noticeably from observed values. The weak restoring terms in the diagnostic model suppress convection and other vertical motions, causing major disruptions in the diagnostic model's deep sea ventilation.

30. Toggweiler, J R., Keith W Dixon, and Kirk Bryan, 1989: Simulations of radiocarbon in a coarse-resolution world ocean model 2. Distributions of bomb-produced carbon 14. Journal of Geophysical Research, 94(C6), 8243-8264.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Part 1 of this study examined the ability of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) primitive equation ocean general circulation model to simulate the steady state distribution of naturally produced ¹⁴C in the ocean prior to the nuclear bomb tests of the 1950s and early 1960s. In part 2 we begin with the steady state distributions of part 1 and subject the model to the pulse of elevated atmospheric ¹⁴C concentrations observed since the 1950s. This study focuses on the processes and time scales which govern the transient distributions of bomb ¹⁴C in the upper kilometer of the ocean. Model projections through 1990 are compared with observations compiled by the Geochemical Ocean Sections Study (GEOSECS) in 1972, 1974, and 1978; the Transient Tracers in the Ocean (TTO) expedition in 1981, and the French INDIGO expeditions in 1985-1987. In their analysis of the GEOSECS ¹⁴C observations, Broecker et al. (1985) noted that much of the bomb ¹⁴C which entered the ocean's equatorial belts prior to GEOSECS accumulated in the adjacent subtropical zones. Broecker et al. argued that this displacement of bomb ¹⁴C inventories was caused by the wind-driven upwelling and surface divergence in the tropics combined with convergent flow and downwelling in the subtropics. Similar displacements were invoked to shift bomb ¹⁴C from the Antarctic circumpolar region into the southern temperate zone. The GFDL model successfully reproduces the observed GEOSECS inventories, but then predicts a significantly different pattern of bomb ¹⁴C uptake in the decade following GEOSECS. The post-GEOSECS buildup of bomb ¹⁴C inventories is largely confined to the subthermocline layers of the North Atlantic, the lower thermocline of the southern hemisphere, and down to 2000 m in the circumpolar region. A great deal of attention is devoted to detailed comparisons between the model and the available radiocarbon data. A number of flaws in the model are highlighted by this analysis. The Subantarctic Mode Waters forming along the northern edge of the circumpolar current are identified as a very important process for carrying bomb ¹⁴C into the thermoclines of the southern hemisphere. The model concentrates its mode water formation in a single sector of the circumpolar region and consequently fails to form its mode waters with the correct T-S properties. The model also moves bomb ¹⁴C into the deep North Atlantic and deep circumpolar region much too slowly.

31. Dixon, Keith W., and R P Harnack, 1986: Effect of intraseasonal circulation variability on winter temperature forecast skill. Monthly Weather Review, 114(1), 208-214.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The prediction of winter temperatures in the U.S. from Pacific sea surface temperatures was examined by using a jackknifed regression scheme and a measure of intraseasonal atmospheric circulation variability. Using a jackknifed regression methodology when deriving objective prediction equations permitted forecast skill to be better quantified than in past studies by greatly increasing the effective independent sample size. The procedures were repeated on three data sets: 1) all winters in the period 1950-1979 (30 winters), 2) the 15 winters having the highest Variability Index (VI), and 3) the 15 winters having the lowest VI. The VI was constructed to measure the intraseasonal variability of five-day-period mean 700-mb heights for a portion of the Northern Hemisphere. Verification results showed that statistically significant skill was achieved in the complete sample (overall mean percent correct of 39 and 59 for three- and two-category forecasts, respectively), but improved somewhat for the low VI sample. In that case, corresponding scores were 44 and 64% correct. In contrast, the high VI sample scores were lower (34 and 58% correct) than for the complete sample, indicating that skill is probably dependent upon the degree of intraseasonal circulation variability.

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