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Adaptation

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IPCC Working Group II, Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 17, Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints, and Capacity Exit EPA Disclaimer[PDF, 28 pp., 406KB, About PDF]

Pew Center Report: Coping with Global Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the United States Exit EPA Disclaimer

Some degree of future climate change will occur regardless of future greenhouse gas emissions. Adapting to or coping with climate change will therefore become necessary in certain regions and for certain socioeconomic and environmental systems. The need for adaptation may be increased by growing populations in areas vulnerable to extreme events.  However, according to the IPCC, “adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and especially not over the long term as most impacts increase in magnitude.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptation as the “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007).

Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4, Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources:

The U.S. EPA, in collaboration with other federal agencies, is carrying out this study, to be completed by the end of 2007.

The purpose of this study is to review management options for adapting to climate variability and change in the United States, and to identify characteristics of ecosystems and adaptation responses that promote successful implementation and meet resource managers’ needs. The following questions will be addressed in this study:

The extent of climate change impacts upon different ecosystems, regions and sectors of the economy will depend not only on the sensitivity of those systems to climate change, but also on the systems' ability to adapt to climate change.

An example of an adaptation strategy to prevent damage from climate change is shore protection (e.g., dikes, bulkheads, beach nourishment), which can prevent sea level rise from inundating low-lying coastal property, eroding beaches, or worsen flooding. If the costs or environmental impacts of shore protection are high compared with the property being protected, an alternative adaptation strategy would be a planned retreat, in which structures are relocated inland as shores retreat.

Adaptation to environmental change is not a new concept. Human societies have shown throughout history a strong capacity for adapting to different climates and environmental changes. For example, farmers, foresters, civil engineers, and their supporting institutions have been forced to adapt to numerous challenges to overcome adversity or to remove important impediments to sustained productivity.

Examples of adaptation and coping strategies with current climate fluctuations include farmers planting different crops for different seasons, and wildlife migrating to more suitable habitats as the seasons change.

Nevertheless, human society and the natural environment are not entirely protected against, nor perfectly adapted to, current climate variability and extreme weather events. Current economic losses from climate variations and extremes can be substantial. These losses indicate that society is vulnerable and that adaptation has not been sufficient to offset damages associated with current variations in climatic conditions (IPCC, 2007).

Human-induced climate change represents a new challenge, and may require adaptation approaches to changes that are potentially larger and faster than past experiences with recorded natural climatic variability. Furthermore, the IPCC concluded that “adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.” (IPCC, 2007)

Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7, Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure – Gulf Coast Study:

The U.S. Department of Transportation selected the central U.S. Gulf Coast as the location for the first of a series of research studies to incorporate information on climate change and variability into decision-making in the transportation sector. The Gulf Coast region has unique transportation modes and the area’s unusual topography and geographic location make it particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and the threat of severe weather events.

The Gulf Coast Study will proceed in three phases and be completed by the end of 2007. Phase I will provide an integrated geospatial overview of climate and weather trends and projections in the Gulf Coast region, overlaid with environmental, economic, and demographic data. This will include an assessment of relative risks and vulnerability to transportation infrastructure and facilities. Phase II will include an in-depth assessment of the potential risks presented by climate change, and Phase III will focus on identifying and analyzing adaptation strategies, and developing analytical tools that stakeholders in the region can use to assess adaptation options.

All climate-sensitive systems of society and the natural environment, including agriculture, forestry, water resources, human health, coastal settlements, and natural ecosystems, will need to adapt to a changing climate or possibly face diminished productivity, functioning and health.

In unmanaged natural systems, adaptation is not planned but occurs when forced to do so. For example, as the climate warms, tree and animal species may migrate northward to remain in suitable climatic conditions and habitat (to the extent that human barriers, such as roads and cities, allow such migration).

In human society, much of adaptation may be planned and undertaken by private decision makers and by public agencies or governments. For humans, adaptation is a risk-management strategy that has costs and is not foolproof. The effectiveness of any specific adaptation requires consideration of the expected value of the avoided damages against the costs of implementing the adaptation strategy (IPCC, 2007; Easterling et al., 2004).

According to one recent assessment (Easterling et al., 2004):

...the literature indicates that U.S. society can on the whole adapt with either net gains or some costs if warming occurs at the lower end of the projected range of magnitude, assuming no change in climate variability and generally making optimistic assumptions about adaptation. However, with a much larger magnitude of warming, even making relatively optimistic assumptions about adaptation, many sectors would experience net losses and higher costs. The thresholds in terms of magnitudes or rates of change (including possible non-linear responses) in climate that will pose difficulty for adaptation are uncertain. In addition, it is uncertain how much of an increase in frequency, intensity, or persistence of extreme weather events the United States can tolerate.

There are substantial limits and barriers to adaptation, including environmental, economic, informational, social, attitudinal and behavioral barriers that are not fully understood.   In addition, there are significant knowledge gaps for adaptation as well as impediments to flows of knowledge and information relevant to adaptation decisions.

Furthermore, adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies.  There are individuals and groups within all societies that have insufficient capacity to adapt to climate change, and high adaptive capacity does not necessarily translate into actions that reduce vulnerability.  For example, despite a high capacity to adapt to heat stress through relatively inexpensive adaptations, residents in urban areas in some parts of the world continue to experience high levels of mortality.

Regarding ecosystems, and on species diversity in particular, effects are expected to be negative at all but perhaps the lowest magnitudes of climate change because of the limited ability of natural systems to adapt. Although biological systems have an inherent capacity to adapt to changes in environmental conditions, given the rapid rate of projected climate change, adaptive capacity is likely to be exceeded for many species.

Furthermore, the ability of ecosystems to adapt to climate change is severely limited by the effects of urbanization, barriers to migration paths, and fragmentation of ecosystems, all of which have already critically stressed ecosystems independent of climate change itself.

Illustrative examples of potential adaptation measures in different sectors include the following:

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has produced the Excessive Heat Events Guidebook with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Designed to help community officials, emergency managers, meteorologists and others plan for and respond to excessive heat events, the guidebook highlights best practices that have been employed to save lives during excessive heat events in different urban areas and provides a menu of options that officials can use to respond to these events in their communities.

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