|
13 SEER Standard for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps |
In January 2004, after years of litigation in a case that pitted environmental groups and Attorneys General from 10 States against the U.S. Secretary of Energy, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reestablished the central air conditioner and heat pump standard originally set in January 2001 [3]. The Court’s ruling, which struck down a May 2002 rollback of the 2001 standard to a 12 SEER, mandates that all new central air conditioners and heat pumps meet a 13 SEER standard by January 2006, requiring a 30-percent increase in efficiency relative to current law. The AEO2005 reference case incorporates the 13 SEER standard as mandated by the Court’s ruling. In order to gauge the impact of the new standard on electricity consumption, consumer expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions, a sensitivity case assuming a continuation of the previous 12 SEER standard was modeled. Table 2 shows the impacts of the 13 SEER standard assumed in the reference case, as compared with the 12 SEER standard assumed in the sensitivity case. As expected, the projections for electricity consumption and expenditures are lower in the reference case than in the 12 SEER case; however, the savings come at an additional cost to consumers. Through 2015 the additional costs of new equipment outweigh savings, resulting in a negative net present value for the 13 SEER standard (assuming a 7-percent real discount rate). In the long run, however, additional years of savings per unit provide a positive ($3.6 billion) net present value, meaning that the standard, on average, provides economic benefits to consumers in the form of reduced energy expenditures.
The difference between projected carbon dioxide emissions in the two cases depends on the fuel mix associated with the electricity generation. In the near term, the reduction in electricity demand in the reference case is not large enough to change the pattern of capacity additions or fuel mix, and lower electricity demand causes a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions both in 2015 and cumulatively from 2006 to 2015 (Table 2). In later years, the amount of peak demand relative to baseload demand is lower in the reference case, and more coal-fired capacity is added at the expense of natural gas capacity. The change in fuel mix causes carbon dioxide emissions to increase, despite slightly lower levels of electricity demand. Emissions in 2025 are 3.6 million metric tons (0.2 percent) higher in the reference case, but cumulative emissions from 2003 through 2025 are 1.0 million metric ton lower than in the 12 SEER case (1 metric ton is equal to 1,000 kilograms).
[3] National Resources Defense Council v. Abraham, U.S. Court of Appeals, 2nd District.
Contact: John Cymbalsky |
