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Handbook of Parameter Estimation for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (NUREG/CR-6823)On this page: Download complete document The following links on this page are to documents in Adobe Portable Document Format (PDF). See our Plugins, Viewers, and Other Tools page for more information. For successful viewing of PDF documents on our site please be sure to use the latest version of Adobe.
Publication InformationManuscript Completed: November 2002 Prepared By C.L. Atwood1, J.L. LaChance2, H.F. Martz3, 2Sandia National Laboratories 1Statwood Consulting 3Los Alamos National Laboratory 4Formerly with Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Idaho Falls, ID 83415 A.D. Salomon, NRC Technical Monitor Prepared for AbstractProbabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a mature technology that can provide a quantitative assessment of the risk from accidents in nuclear power plants. It involves the development of models that delineate the response of systems and operators to accident initiating events. Additional models are generated to identify the component failure modes required to cause the accident mitigating systems to fail. Each component failure mode is represented as an individual “basic event” in the systems models. Estimates of risk are obtained by propagating the uncertainty distributions for each of the parameters through the PRA models. The data analysis portion of a nuclear power plant PRA provides estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and probabilities of the various events modeled in a PRA. This handbook provides guidance on sources of information and methods for estimating the parameters used in PRA models and for quantifying the uncertainties in the estimates. This includes determination of both plant-specific and generic estimates for initiating event frequencies, component failure rates and unavailabilities, and equipment non-recovery probabilities. |
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