US FDA/CFSAN - Appendix 7: Actual Values Predicted by the Risk Assessment Model

Table A7-1. Mean total *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* /g at time of harvest
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	51.85	37.19	17.69	128.86
	spring	937.38	483.59	273.81	3055.82
	summer	2103.32	979.05	630.53	7302.99
	fall	220.55	130.23	61.02	644.27
Gulf non-LA	winter	51.98	37.22	18.36	130.85
	spring	936.04	483.60	275.10	3092.20
	summer	2103.35	971.96	627.47	7675.75
	fall	218.02	130.63	62.36	602.14
Northeast Atlantic	winter	3.73	2.88	0.83	8.73
	spring	42.25	28.85	14.84	111.23
	summer	229.45	147.53	82.72	593.89
	fall	32.58	23.94	12.78	80.86
Mid-Atlantic	winter	3.45	2.71	0.73	8.73
	spring	195.75	115.04	67.23	575.09
	summer	775.35	425.29	229.72	2194.98
	fall	50.94	33.60	16.76	136.33
PNW dredged	winter	0.0188	0.0132	0.0028	0.0556
	spring	0.8124	0.4805	0.1163	2.2556
	summer	5.0399	3.4513	1.2915	13.9599
	fall	0.1455	0.1259	0.0496	0.3021
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0386	0.0253	0.0047	0.1174
	spring	60.70	11.05	0.86	292.93
	summer	652.21	293.18	50.51	2571.28
	fall	2.32	0.99	0.24	6.90

Column 3 = Mean of the uncertainty distribution of "Mean Vp/g"; column 4 = Median of the uncertainty distribution of "Mean Vp/g"; column 5 = 5th %-tile of uncertainty.

Table A7-2. Mean pathogenic *Vibrio parahaemolyticu*s /g at time of harvest
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.0874	0.0617	0.0249	0.2212
	spring	1.6027	0.8652	0.3286	5.3897
	summer	3.5558	1.8377	0.7433	12.1087
	fall	0.3835	0.2256	0.0767	1.1911
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.0927	0.0630	0.0245	0.2293
	spring	1.5858	0.8730	0.3182	5.2191
	summer	3.5840	1.8337	0.7299	11.8884
	fall	0.3793	0.2242	0.0766	1.1289
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.0064	0.0048	0.0012	0.0164
	spring	0.0707	0.0499	0.0187	0.1845
	summer	0.3928	0.2616	0.1035	1.0930
	fall	0.0568	0.0403	0.0160	0.1448
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.0059	0.0043	0.0011	0.0139
	spring	0.3325	0.2030	0.0837	1.0098
	summer	1.3110	0.7580	0.2834	3.8896
	fall	0.0873	0.0575	0.0229	0.2391
PNW dredged	winter	0.0004	0.0003	0.0001	0.0014
	spring	0.0193	0.0106	0.0019	0.0536
	summer	0.1152	0.0751	0.0221	0.3445
	fall	0.0034	0.0027	0.0008	0.0081
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0009	0.0005	0.0001	0.0031
	spring	1.4495	0.2279	0.0166	6.0919
	summer	14.9062	6.0430	0.8674	63.2740
	fall	0.0507	0.0197	0.0040	0.1493

Table A7-3. Mean total Vp/g at time of cooldown
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	787.24	464.68	79.53	2434.14
	spring	62061.82	56490.03	23563.18	118882.04
	summer	165199.14	153525.28	74182.70	293861.75
	fall	15654.30	12528.95	3513.43	37311.71
Gulf non-LA	winter	372.24	221.60	53.03	1215.18
	spring	44226.14	39066.31	15734.72	88768.61
	summer	116622.74	105585.07	48795.43	225993.76
	fall	6881.04	5084.78	1206.76	18331.58
Northeast Atlantic	winter	4.01	3.06	0.89	9.40
	spring	1403.94	893.51	140.33	4506.91
	summer	6787.28	4907.13	1391.13	18321.50
	fall	144.31	84.68	26.00	432.34
Mid-Atlantic	winter	3.86	2.96	0.80	10.00
	spring	11674.22	10137.35	3379.63	25474.28
	summer	34342.94	27305.00	7394.09	84762.05
	fall	839.96	470.69	63.20	2758.27
PNW dredged	winter	0.022	0.015	0.003	0.066
	spring	25.717	3.465	0.317	138.135
	summer	287.581	108.962	17.667	1221.362
	fall	0.645	0.364	0.101	1.868
PNW intertidal	winter	0.047	0.028	0.005	0.153
	spring	415.228	52.572	1.879	2172.929
	summer	4566.77	2422.75	329.45	16931.88
	fall	10.74	2.73	0.42	45.15

Table A7-4. Mean pathogenic Vp/g at time of cooldown
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	1.317	0.697	0.110	4.506
	spring	108.460	92.385	32.186	244.923
	summer	287.154	253.152	103.010	597.996
	fall	27.512	20.997	4.968	68.499
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.644	0.341	0.071	2.141
	spring	77.027	63.539	21.026	179.791
	summer	202.870	173.521	66.229	437.251
	fall	11.979	8.297	1.737	32.402
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.007	0.005	0.001	0.017
	spring	2.398	1.390	0.182	8.199
	summer	11.814	8.184	1.838	32.201
	fall	0.250	0.137	0.034	0.858
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.007	0.005	0.001	0.016
	spring	20.040	16.709	4.641	47.741
	summer	59.295	45.427	10.835	154.094
	fall	1.4779	0.7598	0.0959	5.3229
PNW dredged	winter	0.0005	0.0003	0.0001	0.0017
	spring	0.6363	0.0721	0.0054	2.6605
	summer	6.4807	2.1624	0.2836	29.1563
	fall	0.0162	0.0072	0.0018	0.0507
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0011	0.0006	0.0001	0.0038
	spring	10.1514	1.0690	0.0363	52.6528
	summer	105.049	52.515	5.167	388.076
	fall	0.240	0.052	0.007	0.989

Table A7-5. Mean total *Vibrio parahaemolyticu*s /g at-retail (post-harvest)
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	286.70	165.04	29.52	924.17
	spring	22508.79	20412.66	8491.07	43159.94
	summer	59882.85	55813.92	27055.13	106638.93
	fall	5670.00	4506.72	1284.31	13710.14
Gulf non-LA	winter	135.38	78.42	18.84	429.52
	spring	16033.78	14157.30	5681.66	32574.90
	summer	42273.90	38369.08	17786.53	81881.76
	fall	2496.79	1845.00	443.81	6622.02
Northeast Atlantic	winter	1.49	1.11	0.31	3.42
	spring	510.58	319.67	50.57	1667.50
	summer	2458.30	1782.36	501.60	6808.45
	fall	51.94	30.37	9.45	160.20
Mid-Atlantic	winter	1.40	1.07	0.29	3.56
	spring	4225.24	3676.15	1244.48	9341.05
	summer	12456.42	9914.27	2677.74	30933.37
	fall	305.85	171.56	22.89	994.08
PNW dredged	winter	0.0080	0.0054	0.0011	0.0242
	spring	9.1392	1.2599	0.1133	43.0935
	summer	104.8961	38.6175	6.3163	428.4740
	fall	0.2302	0.1316	0.0369	0.6721
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0169	0.0102	0.0019	0.0556
	spring	150.14	18.99	0.66	778.34
	summer	1651.17	870.28	117.41	6080.52
	fall	3.9387	0.9567	0.1526	17.1876

Table A7-6. Mean pathogenic *Vibrio parahaemolyticu*s /g at retail (post-harvest)
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.4750	0.2478	0.0401	1.6221
	spring	39.2890	33.4437	11.5471	87.6192
	summer	104.0239	91.2896	37.4281	217.9466
	fall	9.9519	7.5803	1.7550	25.0750
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.2294	0.1224	0.0257	0.7961
	spring	27.9565	23.0971	7.6225	64.8276
	summer	73.4609	62.9898	23.9565	158.4772
	fall	4.3620	3.0104	0.6378	12.0473
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.0025	0.0018	0.0004	0.0063
	spring	0.8777	0.5108	0.0638	3.0233
	summer	4.2858	2.9966	0.6799	11.7178
	fall	0.0882	0.0484	0.0121	0.2943
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.0024	0.0017	0.0004	0.0058
	spring	7.2760	6.0325	1.7164	17.6758
	summer	21.4864	16.4224	3.7599	54.2711
	fall	0.5410	0.2587	0.0348	1.9754
PNW dredged	winter	0.00019	0.00012	0.00002	0.00061
	spring	0.22433	0.02632	0.00196	0.87405
	summer	2.32247	0.77659	0.10017	10.78517
	fall	0.00577	0.00263	0.00064	0.01792
PNW intertidal	winter	0.00040	0.00021	0.00003	0.00135
	spring	3.7098	0.3843	0.0137	18.7625
	summer	37.7557	18.9119	1.8714	139.5608
	fall	0.0860	0.0177	0.0026	0.3021

Table A7-7. Mean dose total *Vibrio parahaemolyticu*s per serving
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	5.79E+04	3.33E+04	5.96E+03	1.87E+05
	spring	4.55E+06	4.12E+06	1.72E+06	8.72E+06
	summer	1.21E+07	1.13E+07	5.47E+06	2.15E+07
	fall	1.15E+06	9.10E+05	2.59E+05	2.77E+06
Gulf non-LA	winter	2.73E+04	1.58E+04	3.81E+03	8.68E+04
	spring	3.24E+06	2.86E+06	1.15E+06	6.58E+06
	summer	8.54E+06	7.75E+06	3.59E+06	1.65E+07
	fall	5.04E+05	3.73E+05	8.96E+04	1.34E+06
Northeast Atlantic	winter	3.02E+02	2.24E+02	6.33E+01	6.90E+02
	spring	1.03E+05	6.46E+04	1.02E+04	3.37E+05
	summer	4.97E+05	3.60E+05	1.01E+05	1.38E+06
	fall	1.05E+04	6.13E+03	1.91E+03	3.24E+04
Mid-Atlantic	winter	2.82E+02	2.15E+02	5.92E+01	7.19E+02
	spring	8.53E+05	7.43E+05	2.51E+05	1.89E+06
	summer	2.52E+06	2.00E+06	5.41E+05	6.25E+06
	fall	6.18E+04	3.47E+04	4.62E+03	2.01E+05
PNW dredged	winter	1.61E+00	1.09E+00	2.20E-01	4.88E+00
	spring	1.85E+03	2.54E+02	2.29E+01	8.70E+03
	summer	2.12E+04	7.80E+03	1.28E+03	8.66E+04
	fall	4.65E+01	2.66E+01	7.45E+00	1.36E+02
PNW intertidal	winter	3.41E+00	2.07E+00	3.81E-01	1.12E+01
	spring	3.03E+04	3.84E+03	1.33E+02	1.57E+05
	summer	3.34E+05	1.76E+05	2.37E+04	1.23E+06
	fall	7.96E+02	1.93E+02	3.08E+01	3.47E+03

Table A7-8. Mean dose pathogenic *Vibrio parahaemolyticu*s per serving
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	97.54	50.32	8.06	332.70
	spring	7878.70	6669.40	2320.26	17773.88
	summer	20816.05	18319.93	7506.42	43704.33
	fall	1992.93	1525.87	322.83	5054.04
Gulf non-LA	winter	46.67	23.76	5.09	163.87
	spring	5619.13	4633.61	1484.91	13117.20
	summer	14731.34	12505.11	4904.38	31955.61
	fall	875.78	612.42	111.24	2506.69
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.50	0.36	0.09	1.23
	spring	178.64	99.19	12.25	616.43
	summer	862.05	583.28	130.28	2462.78
	fall	17.49	9.66	2.42	57.16
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.48	0.35	0.09	1.17
	spring	1456.03	1204.63	327.89	3468.49
	summer	4308.16	3341.36	754.41	10836.96
	fall	109.42	49.01	7.09	412.18
PNW dredged	winter	0.04	0.02	0.00	0.12
	spring	42.86	5.28	0.40	164.75
	summer	456.71	147.64	20.82	2087.10
	fall	1.18	0.52	0.12	3.63
PNW intertidal	winter	0.08	0.04	0.01	0.28
	spring	739.13	72.20	2.59	3665.94
	summer	7498.71	3679.84	374.39	29915.03
	fall	16.87	3.45	0.50	74.14

Table A7-9. Mean risk per serving
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	2.14E-06	7.64E-07	5.20E-08	8.26E-06
	spring	1.68E-04	1.04E-04	1.20E-05	5.41E-04
	summer	4.39E-04	3.00E-04	3.40E-05	1.39E-03
	fall	4.27E-05	2.36E-05	2.07E-06	1.51E-04
Gulf non-LA	winter	1.05E-06	3.63E-07	3.05E-08	4.17E-06
	spring	1.21E-04	7.19E-05	8.31E-06	3.94E-04
	summer	3.11E-04	2.03E-04	2.32E-05	1.03E-03
	fall	1.88E-05	9.64E-06	7.44E-07	6.65E-05
Northeast Atlantic	winter	1.11E-08	5.81E-09	4.92E-10	3.47E-08
	spring	3.64E-06	1.49E-06	8.35E-08	1.49E-05
	summer	1.78E-05	9.08E-06	8.37E-07	6.86E-05
	fall	3.98E-07	1.65E-07	1.25E-08	1.62E-06
Mid-Atlantic	winter	1.05E-08	5.61E-09	4.93E-10	3.75E-08
	spring	3.11E-05	1.84E-05	1.81E-06	1.05E-04
	summer	9.24E-05	4.88E-05	4.86E-06	3.31E-04
	fall	2.21E-06	7.82E-07	4.94E-08	1.02E-05
PNW dredged	winter	8.11E-10	3.66E-10	3.19E-11	3.22E-09
	spring	8.68E-07	8.83E-08	3.96E-09	3.08E-06
	summer	1.01E-05	2.21E-06	1.58E-07	4.15E-05
	fall	2.65E-08	8.38E-09	6.86E-10	9.46E-08
PNW intertidal	winter	1.67E-09	6.41E-10	5.50E-11	6.47E-09
	spring	1.30E-05	1.22E-06	2.27E-08	5.83E-05
	summer	1.44E-04	5.05E-05	3.17E-06	6.22E-04
	fall	3.87E-07	5.71E-08	3.05E-09	1.59E-06

Table A7-10. Number of Illnesses Associated with *V. parahaemolyticus*
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	6.65	2.37	0.16	25.60
	spring	505.02	313.01	35.96	1623.72
	summer	1406.36	960.87	108.92	4435.45
	fall	132.25	73.22	6.42	468.44
Gulf non-LA	winter	2.85	0.98	0.08	11.26
	spring	192.96	115.04	13.30	630.61
	summer	298.59	194.55	22.27	984.84
	fall	50.71	26.03	2.01	179.53
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.027	0.014	0.001	0.083
	spring	2.95	1.21	0.07	12.08
	summer	13.72	6.99	0.64	52.84
	fall	1.67	0.69	0.05	6.79
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.012	0.006	0.001	0.041
	spring	4.35	2.58	0.25	14.76
	summer	6.93	3.66	0.36	24.84
	fall	3.76	1.33	0.08	17.38
PNW dredged	winter	0.0006	0.0002	0.0000	0.0022
	spring	0.4165	0.0424	0.0019	1.4795
	summer	3.93	0.86	0.06	16.19
	fall	0.0238	0.0075	0.0006	0.0852
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0033	0.0013	0.0001	0.0129
	spring	18.24	1.71	0.03	81.56
	summer	172.69	60.66	3.80	746.14
	fall	1.05	0.15	0.01	4.28

Table A7-11. Number of septicemia cases
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.0155	0.0055	0.0004	0.0598
	spring	1.1797	0.7312	0.0840	3.7930
	summer	3.2853	2.2446	0.2544	10.3612
	fall	0.3089	0.1710	0.0150	1.0943
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.0067	0.0023	0.0002	0.0263
	spring	0.4508	0.2687	0.0311	1.4731
	summer	0.6975	0.4545	0.0520	2.3006
	fall	0.1185	0.0608	0.0047	0.4194
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.000062	0.000033	0.000003	0.000194
	spring	0.0069	0.0028	0.0002	0.0282
	summer	0.0321	0.0163	0.0015	0.1234
	fall	0.0039	0.0016	0.0001	0.0159
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.000027	0.000014	0.000001	0.000096
	spring	0.0102	0.0060	0.0006	0.0345
	summer	0.0162	0.0086	0.0009	0.0580
	fall	0.0088	0.0031	0.0002	0.0406
PNW dredged	winter	0.0000013	0.0000006	0.0000001	0.0000051
	spring	0.0010	0.0001	0.0000	0.0035
	summer	0.0092	0.0020	0.0001	0.0378
	fall	0.000056	0.000018	0.000001	0.000199
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0000078	0.0000030	0.0000003	0.0000302
	spring	0.0426	0.0040	0.0001	0.1905
	summer	0.4034	0.1417	0.0089	1.7430
	fall	0.002443	0.000360	0.000019	0.010002

Table A7-12. Mean pathogenic *V. parahaemolyticus* per gram at-cool down after immediate refrigeration, i.e., ~1 log reduction
Region	Season	Mean (no mitigation)	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	1.317	0.0591	0.0397	0.0130	0.1650
	spring	108.460	4.1855	2.7837	0.8359	11.7680
	summer	287.154	10.0785	6.6973	2.3462	28.6955
	fall	27.512	0.6541	0.3875	0.0903	2.0872
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.644	0.0603	0.0383	0.0137	0.1721
	spring	77.027	4.2041	2.8754	0.8177	11.9167
	summer	202.870	10.0933	6.7617	2.4139	28.4286
	fall	11.979	0.6574	0.3790	0.0927	2.1358
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.007	0.00234	0.00175	0.00042	0.00591
	spring	2.398	0.0971	0.0527	0.0146	0.2941
	summer	11.814	0.5217	0.3361	0.1089	1.4607
	fall	0.250	0.0302	0.0204	0.0071	0.0801
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.007	0.00228	0.00160	0.00040	0.00544
	spring	20.040	0.8753	0.5677	0.1350	2.7134
	summer	59.295	2.5533	1.5811	0.4567	7.6112
	fall	1.4779	0.0898	0.0449	0.0137	0.3155
PNW dredged	winter	0.0005	0.000169	0.000105	0.00002	0.000557
	spring	0.6363	0.0223	0.0079	0.0011	0.0760
	summer	6.4807	0.1973	0.0977	0.0232	0.6755
	fall	0.0162	0.00195	0.00138	0.00040	0.00498
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0011	0.00037	0.00020	0.00003	0.00131
	spring	10.1514	1.8835	0.2277	0.0092	9.7423
	summer	105.049	20.4757	9.4094	0.9484	84.2898
	fall	0.240	0.0380	0.0130	0.0022	0.1329

Table A7-13. Mean pathogenic *V. parahaemolyticus* per serving at-retail after immediate refrigeration, i.e., ~1 log reduction mitigation
Region	Season	Mean (no mitigation)	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.4750	11.9386	8.0146	2.6278	33.3291
	spring	39.2890	845.4704	562.3106	168.8508	2377.1382
	summer	104.0239	2035.86	1352.85	473.9361	5796.4965
	fall	9.9519	132.1342	78.2792	18.2489	421.6187
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.2294	12.1846	7.7457	2.7649	34.7622
	spring	27.9565	849.2298	580.8270	165.1785	2407.1684
	summer	73.4609	2038.84	1365.86	487.6049	5742.5852
	fall	4.3620	132.7878	76.5543	18.7229	431.4337
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.0025	0.4734	0.3536	0.0846	1.1934
	spring	0.8777	19.6208	10.6371	2.9497	59.4099
	summer	4.2858	105.3749	67.8978	22.0022	295.0676
	fall	0.0882	6.1050	4.1237	1.4353	16.1709
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.0024	0.4614	0.3241	0.0804	1.0997
	spring	7.2760	176.8161	114.6784	27.2646	548.1126
	summer	21.4864	515.7639	319.3810	92.2551	1537.4702
	fall	0.5410	18.1424	9.0685	2.7665	63.7350
PNW dredged	winter	0.00019	0.0341	0.0212	0.0039	0.1124
	spring	0.22433	4.4984	1.5888	0.2293	15.3516
	summer	2.32247	39.8579	19.7436	4.6772	136.4576
	fall	0.00577	0.3931	0.2785	0.0812	1.0063
PNW intertidal	winter	0.00040	0.0748	0.0409	0.0066	0.2647
	spring	3.7098	380.47	46.00	1.85	1967.93
	summer	37.7557	4136.10	1900.71	191.57	17026.55
	fall	0.0860	7.6694	2.6215	0.4500	26.8481

Table A7-14. Mean pathogenic *V. parahaemolyticus* per gram at-cool down after 2 log reduction mitigation
Region	Season	Mean (no mitigation)	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	1.317	0.00501	0.00251	0.00039	0.01795
	spring	108.460	0.38858	0.32658	0.11234	0.88743
	summer	287.154	1.03056	0.90900	0.36279	2.15488
	fall	27.512	0.09750	0.07328	0.01609	0.24394
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.644	0.00228	0.00114	0.00027	0.00753
	spring	77.027	0.27724	0.22999	0.07549	0.65012
	summer	202.870	0.72828	0.63702	0.24142	1.56452
	fall	11.979	0.04253	0.02950	0.00558	0.12375
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.007	2.44E-05	1.78E-05	3.47E-06	6.04E-05
	spring	2.398	0.00887	0.00492	0.00062	0.03239
	summer	11.814	0.04225	0.02914	0.00682	0.11437
	fall	0.250	0.00099	0.00045	0.00012	0.00337
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.007	2.44E-05	1.73E-05	3.47E-06	6.09E-05
	spring	20.040	0.07301	0.06030	0.01548	0.17157
	summer	59.295	0.21194	0.16272	0.03601	0.53950
	fall	1.4779	0.00506	0.00232	0.00033	0.01933
PNW dredged	winter	0.0005	1.87E-06	9.90E-07	0.00E+00	6.44E-06
	spring	0.6363	0.00213	0.00025	0.00002	0.00918
	summer	6.4807	0.02332	0.00758	0.00099	0.09652
	fall	0.0162	4.92E-05	2.60E-05	5.94E-06	1.47E-04
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0011	3.98E-06	2.12E-06	3.36E-07	1.36E-05
	spring	10.1514	0.03490	0.00405	0.00012	0.19899
	summer	105.049	0.37985	0.18354	0.01770	1.53891
	fall	0.240	0.00069	0.00019	0.00003	0.00231

Table A7-15. Mean pathogenic *V. parahaemolyticus* at-retail per serving after 2 log reduction mitigation
Region	Season	Mean (no mitigation)	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.4750	1.012	0.506	0.078	3.625
	spring	39.2890	78.49	65.97	22.69	179.26
	summer	104.0239	208.17	183.62	73.28	435.29
	fall	9.9519	19.70	14.80	3.25	49.28
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.2294	0.461	0.230	0.054	1.520
	spring	27.9565	56.00	46.46	15.25	131.32
	summer	73.4609	147.11	128.68	48.77	316.03
	fall	4.3620	8.59	5.96	1.13	25.00
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.0025	0.0049	0.0036	0.0007	0.0122
	spring	0.8777	1.79	0.99	0.13	6.54
	summer	4.2858	8.54	5.89	1.38	23.10
	fall	0.0882	0.2000	0.0900	0.0243	0.6803
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.0024	0.0049	0.0035	0.0007	0.0123
	spring	7.2760	14.75	12.18	3.13	34.66
	summer	21.4864	42.81	32.87	7.27	108.98
	fall	0.5410	1.02	0.47	0.07	3.90
PNW dredged	winter	0.00019	0.00038	0.00020	0.00000	0.00130
	spring	0.22433	0.4308	0.0501	0.0041	1.8535
	summer	2.32247	4.7107	1.5304	0.1997	19.4966
	fall	0.00577	0.0099	0.0053	0.0012	0.0297
PNW intertidal	winter	0.00040	0.00080	0.00043	0.00007	0.00276
	spring	3.7098	7.0507	0.8184	0.0250	40.1965
	summer	37.7557	76.7307	37.0752	3.5762	310.8602
	fall	0.0860	0.1384	0.0379	0.0056	0.4666

Table A7-16. Mean pathogenic V.parahaemolyticus per gram at cooldown after 4.5 log reduction mitigation
Region	Season	Mean (no mitigation)	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	1.317	1.58E-05	8.42E-06	9.90E-07	5.74E-05
	spring	108.460	1.23E-03	1.04E-03	3.55E-04	2.80E-03
	summer	287.154	3.26E-03	2.87E-03	1.15E-03	6.80E-03
	fall	27.512	3.08E-04	2.37E-04	5.00E-05	7.68E-04
Gulf non- LA	winter	0.644	7.19E-06	3.47E-06	4.95E-07	2.43E-05
	spring	77.027	8.76E-04	7.24E-04	2.39E-04	2.04E-03
	summer	202.870	2.30E-03	2.01E-03	7.52E-04	4.95E-03
	fall	11.979	1.35E-04	9.21E-05	1.83E-05	3.95E-04
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.007	8.32E-08	0.00E+0	0.00E+00	4.95E-07
	spring	2.398	2.80E-05	1.53E-05	1.49E-06	1.01E-04
	summer	11.814	1.34E-04	9.11E-05	2.08E-05	3.67E-04
	fall	0.250	3.15E-06	1.49E-06	0.00E+00	1.19E-05
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.007	7.52E-08	0.00E+0	0.00E+00	4.95E-07
	spring	20.040	2.31E-04	1.92E-04	5.05E-05	5.44E-04
	summer	59.295	6.70E-04	5.20E-04	1.13E-04	1.70E-03
	fall	1.4779	1.60E-05	7.67E-06	9.65E-07	6.04E-05
PNW dredged	winter	0.0005	5.45E-09	0.00E+0	0.00E+00	0.00E+00
	spring	0.6363	6.88E-06	9.90E-07	0.00E+00	2.99E-05
	summer	6.4807	7.40E-05	2.40E-05	2.97E-06	3.07E-04
	fall	0.0162	1.65E-07	0.00E+0	0.00E+00	9.90E-07
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0011	1.26E-08	6.70E-09	1.06E-09	4.32E-08
	spring	10.1514	1.10E-04	1.28E-05	3.92E-07	6.29E-04
	summer	105.049	1.20E-03	5.80E-04	5.60E-05	4.87E-03
	fall	0.240	2.17E-06	5.94E-07	8.71E-08	7.31E-06

Table A7-17. Mean pathogenic V.parahaemolyticus per serving at-retail after 4.5 log reduction mitigation
Region	Season	Mean (no mitigation)	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.4750	0.00320	0.00170	0.00020	0.01160
	spring	39.2890	0.24828	0.20925	0.07178	0.56649
	summer	104.0239	0.65827	0.57880	0.23236	1.37454
	fall	9.9519	0.06224	0.04785	0.01010	0.15521
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.2294	0.00145	0.00070	0.00010	0.00491
	spring	27.9565	0.17697	0.14630	0.04819	0.41267
	summer	73.4609	0.46534	0.40625	0.15198	0.99969
	fall	4.3620	0.02724	0.01860	0.00370	0.07971
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.0025	1.68E-05	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	1.00E-04
	spring	0.8777	0.00565	0.00310	0.00030	0.02041
	summer	4.2858	0.02706	0.01840	0.00420	0.07422
	fall	0.0882	0.00064	0.00030	0.00000	0.00240
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.0024	1.52E-05	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	1.00E-04
	spring	7.2760	0.04668	0.03870	0.01020	0.10990
	summer	21.4864	0.13534	0.10510	0.02289	0.34281
	fall	0.5410	0.00324	0.00155	0.00020	0.01221
PNW dredged	winter	0.00019	1.10E-06	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	0.00E+00
	spring	0.22433	0.00139	0.00020	0.00000	0.00603
	summer	2.32247	0.01494	0.00485	0.00060	0.06202
	fall	0.00577	3.33E-05	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	2.00E-04
PNW intertidal	winter	0.00040	2.54E-06	1.35E-06	2.15E-07	8.72E-06
	spring	3.7098	0.02230	0.00259	0.00008	0.12711
	summer	37.7557	0.24264	0.11724	0.01131	0.98303
	fall	0.0860	0.00044	0.00012	0.00002	0.00148

Table A7-18. # of annual illnesses after immediate refrigeration, i.e. ~1 log reduction
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.80	0.41	0.04	2.53
	spring	54.06	28.50	2.98	185.27
	summer	138.87	73.65	7.64	492.47
	fall	8.81	3.99	0.34	33.51
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.72	0.35	0.04	2.31
	spring	28.95	14.38	1.52	98.14
	summer	41.62	22.05	2.55	144.08
	fall	7.65	3.43	0.32	27.77
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.0244	0.0134	0.0011	0.0814
	spring	0.3305	0.1374	0.0129	1.2325
	summer	1.7132	0.8781	0.0986	6.1876
	fall	0.5514	0.2955	0.0290	1.8030
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.0106	0.0058	0.0005	0.0372
	spring	0.5267	0.2528	0.0242	2.0308
	summer	0.8264	0.3839	0.0395	3.1570
	fall	0.6352	0.2707	0.0250	2.4228
PNW dredged	winter	4.97E-04	2.27E-04	1.89E-05	1.97E-03
	spring	0.0509	0.0124	0.0009	0.1594
	summer	0.3689	0.1216	0.0102	1.4661
	fall	0.0081	0.0040	0.0004	0.0307
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0032	0.0013	0.0001	0.0126
	spring	9.98	1.04	0.02	49.94
	summer	95.71	31.73	1.94	422.48
	fall	0.49	0.11	0.01	1.70

Table A7-19. # of annual illnesses after 2 log reduction mitigation
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.0704	0.0245	0.0017	0.2957
	spring	5.20	3.15	0.35	16.69
	summer	14.56	9.67	1.10	46.88
	fall	1.34	0.72	0.06	4.98
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.0279	0.0101	0.0009	0.1085
	spring	1.9684	1.1501	0.1299	6.3499
	summer	3.0684	1.9492	0.2188	10.3400
	fall	0.5134	0.2563	0.0209	1.8016
Northeast Atlantic	winter	2.54E-04	1.38E-04	1.13E-05	8.67E-04
	spring	0.0307	0.0120	0.0008	0.1254
	summer	0.1383	0.0707	0.0070	0.5312
	fall	0.0180	0.0064	0.0005	0.0732
Mid-Atlantic	winter	1.13E-04	5.87E-05	5.36E-06	4.08E-04
	spring	0.0449	0.0254	0.0027	0.1599
	summer	0.0704	0.0366	0.0038	0.2553
	fall	0.0367	0.0125	0.0008	0.1579
PNW dredged	winter	5.51E-06	2.29E-06	0.00E+00	2.19E-05
	spring	4.73E-03	4.07E-04	1.72E-05	1.69E-02
	summer	0.0441	0.0091	0.0006	0.1983
	fall	2.10E-04	7.20E-05	6.61E-06	7.42E-04
PNW intertidal	winter	3.35E-05	1.17E-05	0.00E+00	1.39E-04
	spring	0.2209	0.0178	0.0003	1.0663
	summer	2.1265	0.6351	0.0394	9.3803
	fall	0.0085	0.0016	0.0001	0.0289

Table A7-20. # of annual illnesses after 4.5 log reduction mitigation
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	2.23E-04	7.63E-05	3.87E-06	9.80E-04
	spring	1.65E-02	9.99E-03	1.09E-03	5.32E-02
	summer	4.61E-02	3.06E-02	3.49E-03	1.50E-01
	fall	4.24E-03	2.29E-03	1.98E-04	1.60E-02
Gulf non-LA	winter	8.79E-05	3.10E-05	1.43E-06	3.49E-04
	spring	6.22E-03	3.64E-03	4.11E-04	2.02E-02
	summer	9.71E-03	6.13E-03	7.00E-04	3.24E-02
	fall	1.63E-03	8.05E-04	6.58E-05	5.79E-03
Northeast Atlantic	winter	8.57E-07	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	4.92E-06
	spring	9.66E-05	3.61E-05	1.77E-06	3.90E-04
	summer	4.39E-04	2.20E-04	2.09E-05	1.64E-03
	fall	5.63E-05	1.94E-05	0.00E+00	2.34E-04
Mid-Atlantic	winter	3.40E-07	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	2.26E-06
	spring	1.42E-04	8.03E-05	8.54E-06	5.09E-04
	summer	2.23E-04	1.16E-04	1.17E-05	8.03E-04
	fall	1.16E-04	4.02E-05	1.45E-06	5.16E-04
PNW dredged	winter	1.49E-08	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	0.00E+00
	spring	1.49E-05	1.11E-06	0.00E+00	5.09E-05
	summer	1.40E-04	2.75E-05	1.50E-06	6.47E-04
	fall	6.71E-07	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	4.16E-06
PNW intertidal	winter	9.18E-08	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	0.00E+00
	spring	7.04E-04	5.40E-05	0.00E+00	3.47E-03
	summer	6.77E-03	2.04E-03	1.27E-04	3.01E-02
	fall	2.67E-05	3.37E-06	0.00E+00	1.09E-04
Total		0.093

Table A7-21. Percent of harvest exceeding 10,000/g (1,000/g in PNW) at harvest
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.0284%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.1500%
	spring	1.1798%	0.5650%	0.1795%	4.1100%
	summer	2.8700%	1.3850%	0.5895%	9.5050%
	fall	0.2293%	0.0900%	0.0100%	0.8900%
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.0297%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.1600%
	spring	1.1838%	0.5700%	0.1700%	4.2010%
	summer	2.8658%	1.3950%	0.5800%	9.5640%
	fall	0.2279%	0.0900%	0.0100%	0.9200%
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.0004%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	0.0261%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.1300%
	summer	0.2057%	0.0600%	0.0100%	0.8815%
	fall	0.0154%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0800%
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.0004%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	0.2021%	0.0800%	0.0100%	0.7905%
	summer	0.9556%	0.3950%	0.0895%	3.4910%
	fall	0.0391%	0.0100%	0.0000%	0.1805%
PNW dredged	winter	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	0.0023%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0100%
	summer	0.0235%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.1200%
	fall	0.0001%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	0.4398%	0.1200%	0.0000%	2.0205%
	summer	4.0570%	3.2850%	0.7200%	10.9245%
	fall	0.0173%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0700%

Table A7-22. Percent of harvest exceeding 10,000/g (1,000/g in PNW) at cooldown
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.7187%	0.4900%	0.0700%	2.0805%
	spring	27.0453%	26.4400%	16.0095%	40.4635%
	summer	59.3192%	59.2150%	45.3275%	73.5945%
	fall	7.2283%	6.4100%	2.5395%	14.1435%
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.3857%	0.2300%	0.0200%	1.2805%
	spring	22.7366%	22.2350%	12.9260%	35.0890%
	summer	52.1745%	51.8150%	37.4160%	67.1665%
	fall	4.3686%	3.7850%	1.2295%	9.0805%
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.0005%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	1.0107%	0.8000%	0.1500%	2.5305%
	summer	7.0001%	6.1250%	2.0170%	14.9175%
	fall	0.1326%	0.0800%	0.0100%	0.4500%
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.0006%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	5.8520%	5.5350%	2.7985%	9.7605%
	summer	22.9236%	22.0350%	9.9590%	39.5220%
	fall	0.5801%	0.4300%	0.0600%	1.6200%
PNW dredged	winter	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	0.1645%	0.0200%	0.0000%	0.8110%
	summer	1.7676%	1.2100%	0.1600%	5.5115%
	fall	0.0043%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0200%
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	1.4599%	0.6150%	0.0000%	5.9010%
	summer	11.8406%	10.8000%	3.2690%	25.2505%
	fall	0.0662%	0.0300%	0.0000%	0.2400%

Table A7-23. Percent of harvest exceeding 10,000/g (1,000/g in PNW) at retail
Region	Season	Mean	Median	5th %-tile	95th %-tile
Gulf LA	winter	0.3139%	0.1900%	0.0100%	1.0005%
	spring	17.5404%	16.8500%	9.0630%	28.5542%
	summer	42.9736%	42.5050%	27.9665%	59.0720%
	fall	4.4157%	3.7900%	1.2795%	9.2920%
Gulf non-LA	winter	0.1489%	0.0800%	0.0000%	0.5305%
	spring	13.9662%	13.3350%	6.7100%	23.4855%
	summer	35.3920%	34.6300%	21.5750%	51.4820%
	fall	2.3744%	1.9500%	0.5395%	5.4900%
Northeast Atlantic	winter	0.0001%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	0.5058%	0.3700%	0.0500%	1.4620%
	summer	3.2025%	2.5700%	0.6785%	7.8675%
	fall	0.0506%	0.0300%	0.0000%	0.1805%
Mid-Atlantic	winter	0.0001%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	3.4714%	3.1900%	1.3295%	6.4715%
	summer	13.0003%	11.8700%	4.2245%	25.9300%
	fall	0.2912%	0.1900%	0.0100%	0.9100%
PNW dredged	winter	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	0.0682%	0.0100%	0.0000%	0.3500%
	summer	0.7804%	0.4500%	0.0400%	2.7115%
	fall	0.0014%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0100%
PNW intertidal	winter	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
	spring	0.7493%	0.2300%	0.0000%	3.3505%
	summer	6.7454%	5.7250%	1.4190%	16.7305%
	fall	0.0275%	0.0100%	0.0000%	0.1100%

Table A7-24. Effect of Compliance Levels on the Effectiveness of Controlling Total *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* in Oysters at cooldown for Gulf Coast Louisiana Summer
Total Vp/g At-Retail^a	Compliance Level^b	Reduction in Mean Risk per Serving (%)	Harvest Diverted (%)^c	Illness Averted (%)^d
100/g	50%	50.0%	49.0%	74.5%
	70%	70.1%	68.6%	90.6%
	90%	90.0%	88.2%	98.8%
	100%	~100%	98.0%	~100%
1000/g	50%	50.0%	43.5%	71.7%
	70%	70.0%	60.9%	88.3%
	90%	90.0%	78.3%	97.8%
	100%	~100%	87.0%	~100%
5000/g	50%	49.8%	34.5%	67.1%
	70%	69.9%	48.3%	84.4%
	90%	89.7%	62.1%	96.1%
	100%	99.6%	69.0%	99.9%
10,000/g	50%	49.5%	29.7%	64.6%
	70%	69.4%	41.5%	82.1%
	90%	89.2%	53.4%	95.0%
	100%	99.0%	59.3%	99.7%
100,000/g	50%	45.3%	13.9%	53.4%
	70%	63.4%	19.4%	71.2%
	90%	81.6%	25.0%	86.9%
	100%	90.6%	27.8%	94.1%

^a Assumes that the level of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) is known in oysters at the time of harvest.
^b The compliance level is the percentage oyster harvest, which is removed from the raw oyster consumption market or subjected to preventive controls; this percentage is assumed to have the same distribution of Vp/g as under the baseline (no mitigation) scenario.
^c Refers to the harvest that would need to be diverted from the raw market or subjected to preventive controls.
^d Assuming that the volume of product available for raw consumption is impacted (i.e., reduced) according to the estimate of the % of harvest lost from the raw market or subjected to preventive controls.

Quantitative Risk Assessment on the Public Health Impact of Pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Raw Oysters

Appendix 7: Actual Values Predicted by the Risk Assessment Model

Quantitative Risk Assessment on the Public Health Impact of
Pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Raw Oysters