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Basic Information
What is a Pandemic?
A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza (flu) virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity, for which there is no vaccine and which spreads easily from person-to-person. The disease can cause serious illness, and can sweep across the country and around the world in a very short time.
It is difficult to predict when the next flu pandemic will occur or how severe it will be. Wherever and whenever a pandemic starts, everyone around the world is at risk. Countries might, through measures such as border closures and travel restrictions, delay arrival of the virus, but are unlikely to entirely stop it.
Health professionals currently are concerned that the continued spread of a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus, called H5N1, across eastern Asia and other countries represents a significant threat to human health. The H5N1 virus has raised concerns about a potential human pandemic because:
- It is especially virulent
- It is being spread by migratory and domestic birds
- It can be transmitted from birds to mammals and in certain circumstances to humans, and
- Like other influenza viruses, it continues to evolve.
Since 2003, a growing number of human H5N1 cases have been reported in Asia, Europe, and Africa. More than sixty percent of the people infected with the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus have died. Most of these cases are believed to have been caused by exposure to infected poultry. There has been no confirmed, sustained human-to-human transmission of the disease. However, a concern is that H5N1 will evolve into a virus capable of sustained human-to-human transmission.
What impact will a pandemic have?
A pandemic may come and go in waves, each of which could last 6-8 weeks. Therefore, parts of the United States will be affected differently and at different times.
Multiple waves of illness could occur with each wave lasting 2-3 months. Historically, the largest waves have occurred in the fall and winter, but the seasonality of a pandemic cannot be predicted with certainty.
An especially severe influenza pandemic could lead to high levels of illness, death, social disruption, and economic loss. Everyday life would be disrupted because so many people in so many places could become seriously ill at the same time. Impacts could range from school and business closings to the interruption of basic services, such as public transportation and food delivery.
In a severe pandemic, absenteeism may reach 40% during the peak weeks of a community outbreak. Absenteeism may be attributable to illness, the need to care for ill family members, taking care of children impacted by school closures, and fear of infection. Lower rates of absenteeism may be experienced during the weeks before and after the peak.
The federal government will make every effort to sustain essential government services in the event of an influenza pandemic and will call for collaboration and support from all federal departments and agencies, state/local/tribal governments, non-governmental organizations, and businesses throughout the nation.