Overview
Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect continued high crude oil prices as well as strong demand for biofuels, particularly in the United States and the European Union (EU). U.S. agricultural projections reflect large increases in corn-based ethanol production, which affects production, use, and prices of farm commodities throughout the sector. Expansion of biodiesel use in the EU raises demand for vegetable oils in global markets. Additionally, steady domestic and international economic growth in the projections supports gains in consumption, trade, and prices. Although export competition is projected to continue, global economic growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation for gains in world trade and U.S. agricultural exports. Combined with increases in domestic demand, particularly related to growth in ethanol production, the results are generally higher market prices. As a result, overall net farm income remains strong and reaches record levels in the latter part of the projections. Continuing adjustments in response to higher energy and agricultural commodity prices push U.S. retail food prices up more than general inflation in the near term, but then food prices increase less than the general inflation rate over the remainder of the projections period.
The process of preparing the projections
incorporates a composite of model results and judgment-based analysis.
The individual
chapters of this briefing room present assumptions and results
from the 2008-17 baseline, released in February 2008. View the
baseline highlights in full in HTML.
Features
USDA Agricultural Projections
to 2017 (February 2008) contains longrun projections covering
supply, demand, prices, and other economic variables for major
U.S. crop and livestock sectors. The complete report is also
available in Microsoft
Word. Additional discussions are available highlighting factors underlying
baseline projections for Rice,
Soybeans, and Wheat.
Fluctuating Food Commodity Prices: A Complex Issue With No Easy Answers (November 2008) explores the many factors that contributed to the rapid escalation of food commodity prices through mid-2008. For the full report, see Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices (July 2008).
Ethanol Expansion in the
United States: How Will the Agricultural Sector Adjust? (May 2007) examines
effects of the expansion in U.S. ethanol production. Market impacts extend
well beyond corn, the primary feedstock for ethanol in the United States,
to supply and demand for other crops, such as soybeans and cotton, as well
as to U.S. livestock industries. As a consequence of these commodity market
impacts, farm income, government payments, and food prices also change. See narrated
slideshow for an overview; see related Amber Waves feature U.S.
Ethanol Expansion Driving Changes Throughout the Agricultural Sector (September 2007).
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