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Recommended readings for baseline-related topics in four areas
are found here: baseline projections, related research in developing
and enhancing baseline models, analyses of alternative market and
policy scenarios, and previous
baseline projection reports.
Baseline Projections
USDA Agricultural Projections
to 2017 (February 2008) is the complete departmental
baseline report. The complete baseline report is also available
in Microsoft
Word.
Research in Baseline-Related Model Development and Enhancement
Supply Response Under the 1996 Farm
Act and Implications for the U.S. Field Crops Sector (September
2000) measures regional response of producers of major field crops
to the flexibility mandated in the 1996 Act, in terms of their acreage
and crop mix; the pattern of response is used in the baseline.
Price Determination for Corn and
Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs (August
1999) observes factors in U.S. farm-level prices for corn and wheat,
for use in annual models used in the baseline to capture the effects
of market supply and demand factors as well as government agricultural
policy.
Marketing
Loan Benefits Supplement Market Revenues for Farmers (December
1999) summarizes the workings of the marketing loan program and
provides estimates of above-loan rate levels of per-unit revenue
facilitated by the program. These relationships are used in baseline
analysis of response to the program.
Analyses of Alternative Market and Policy Scenarios
Ethanol Expansion in the
United States: How Will the Agricultural Sector Adjust? (May 2007) examines
effects of the expansion in U.S. ethanol production. Market impacts extend
well beyond corn, the primary feedstock for ethanol in the United States,
to supply and demand for other crops, such as soybeans and cotton, as well
as to U.S. livestock industries. As a consequence of these commodity market
impacts, farm income, government payments, and food prices also change. See narrated
slideshow for
an overview; see related Amber Waves feature U.S.
Ethanol Expansion Driving Changes Throughout the Agricultural Sector (September 2007).
The 2002 Farm Act: Provisions
and Implications for Commodity Markets (November 2002) provides
an initial assessment of the legislation's effects on agricultural
production, commodity markets, and net farm income over the next
10 years. Results indicate that commodity market impacts are fairly
small. Net farm income is projected higher than under a continuation
of the 1996 Farm Act, largely reflecting an increase in government
payments.
Pacific Food System Outlook 2003-2004, Where Demographics Will Take the Food System (October 2003) assesses the impact of expanded urbanization, variability in population growth and immigration, and aging populations on the Asia-Pacific food system. The ability of developing countries to adjust to rapid urbanization will be the most important demographic challenge, testing the region's capacity to deliver a steady flow of safe, reasonably priced food.
Agriculture in Brazil and Argentina:
Developments and Prospects for Major Field Crops (December 2001)
points to the increasing competitiveness of these countries in world
oilseed and grain markets. For each country, the potential for future
market-share gains will depend on exchange-rate movements, overall
economic stability, infrastructure improvements, and further policy
reform.
Developing Countries' Economies Key to U.S.
Agriculture (September 2000) presents a graphical overview of
the relationship of developing countries' economies to U.S. agricultural
trade, analyzing the influence of income changes and exchange rate
movements on U.S. agricultural trade relative to baseline projections.
The 1996 U.S. Farm Act Increases
Market Orientation (August 1996) provides a general overview
of major changes in production agriculture resulting from the 1996
Farm Act provisions on commodity programs, agricultural trade, and
conservation; reports the impacts relative to the 1996 baseline.
Archives of Previous Baselines
Previous baseline
projections reports, with related articles and presentations.
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