Detecting and Forecasting Damaging Winds
How are damaging winds detected?
Doppler radar is a useful tool because certain features can identify damaging wind hazards. Sometimes a thin line appears on the radar display indicating a gust front. Doppler radar velocity data can show areas of diverging winds at the surface, and even the strength of those winds. Winds coming together at upper levels of the storm (convergence) can also be seen on velocity displays, and can indicate the development of a microburst.
A well-defined gustfront/outflow boundary was associated with later tornado formation in this Missouri storm.
The Damaging Downburst Prediction and Detection algorithm developed at NSSL detected a moderately strong microburst in progress with winds estimated between 35-58 mph and predicted a severe microburst greater than 58 mph.
Major airports routinely use Terminal Doppler Weather Radars, developed during the 1990's. These radars pay particular attention to weather conditions occurring with a few miles of the airport, especially conditions that might cause deadly microbursts. US commercial pilots are now required to take microburst training.
Can they be forecast?
According to the majority of Storm Prediction Center forecasters, severe wind is the most difficult threat to forecast because they come from a wider range of environments than supercells, tornadoes, or large hail. Damaging winds can be produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's), squall lines, or even just a dying thunderstorm.
HOW DOES NSSL CONTRIBUTE?
DDPDA
To help NWS forecasters, NSSL developed
the Damaging Downburst Prediction and Detection Algorithm using these
radar-detectable features. The DDPDA works best predicting the onset
of damaging downburst winds from high-reflectivity storm cells that develop
in an environment of weak vertical shear.