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Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool
 

The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool estimates the risk that a non-Hispanic white man or woman ages 50-85 will develop colorectal cancer. It is an interactive tool designed by scientists at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), the University of Utah, and the Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program of Northern California. See About the Tool for more information.

Explaining the Questions

Questions:

  • Do you consider yourself to be Hispanic or Latino?
  • Which of the following do you consider yourself to be? (White; Black or African-American; Asian; American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander; Other)

Explanation:

At this time the risk calculations and results provided by this tool are only accurate for non-Hispanic white men and women ages 50 to 85. Researchers are in the process of updating the tool to produce accurate results for men and women of other races and ethnicities. Information to help you understand cancer risk, including colorectal cancer risk, is available at http://understandingrisk.cancer.gov.

Questions:

  • What is your age? (Please note that this tool only calculates risk for men and women ages 50 to 85.)

Explanation:

Colorectal cancer is more likely to occur as people get older. More than 90 percent of people with this disease are diagnosed after age 50. The average age at diagnosis is 72.

Questions:

  • Are you male or female?

Explanation:

The risk and protective factors that may influence the development of colorectal cancer are different for men and women.

Questions:

  • How tall are you without shoes?
  • How much do you weigh without shoes?

Explanation:

Height and weight are used to calculate your body mass index (BMI) and can be used to measure total body fat and whether a person is a healthy weight. Obesity (a condition marked by an abnormally high, unhealthy amount of body fat) has been linked to an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

Questions:

  • In the past 30 days, about how many servings per week of vegetables or leafy green salads did you eat? INCLUDE raw, cooked, canned, and frozen vegetables (including beans) and leafy green salads. DO NOT INCLUDE fried vegetables like French fries or fried potatoes.
  • In the past 30 days, how much did you usually eat in each serving of vegetables or leafy green salads?

Explanation:

Some, but not all, studies suggest that people who eat a diet very low in vegetables may have a higher risk of colorectal cancer.

Questions:

  • During the past 10 years, did you have a colonoscopy or a sigmoidoscopy?(These are medical procedures in which a healthcare professional inserts a tube into the rectum to look for signs of cancer or other problems.)

Explanation:

In a sigmoidoscopy, your healthcare provider checks inside your rectum and the lower part of the colon with a lighted tube called a sigmoidoscope. If anything unusual is in the rectum or colon, like a small polyp or inflamed tissue, your healthcare provider can remove it using the sigmoidoscope. The healthcare provider can send that piece of tissue (biopsy) to the lab for testing. In a colonoscopy, your healthcare provider examines inside the rectum and entire colon using a long, lighted tube called a colonoscope. Using a colonoscope, your healthcare provider can remove polyps that may be found. The procedure to remove polyps is called a polypectomy. Having this procedure will decrease your risk of developing colorectal cancer because polyps, which can be precancerous lesions, are removed.

Questions:

  • During the past 10 years did a healthcare provider tell you that you had a colon polyp or a rectal polyp?

Explanation:

Polyps are growths on the inner wall of the colon or rectum. They are common in people over age 50. Most polyps are benign (not cancer), but some polyps can become cancer. Finding and removing polyps may reduce the risk of colorectal cancer.

Questions:

  • This question asks about medications that contain aspirin. During the past 30 days, have you taken aspirin, BUFFERIN, BAYER, or EXCEDRIN at least 3 times a week? (Do NOT include TYLENOL)
  • This question asks about some medications that do not contain aspirin. During the past 30 days, have you taken ADVIL, ALEVE, CELEBREX, ibuprofen, MOTRIN, naproxen, or NUPRIN at least 3 times a week? (Do NOT include TYLENOL)

Explanation:

Studies have shown that aspirin and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) can lower the risk of colorectal adenomas (noncancerous tumors), and may lower risk of cancerous tumors in the colon and rectum.

Questions:

  • Over the past 12 months, in how many months, if any, did you do any kind of moderate physical activity?
  • During those months, on average, about how many hours per week did you do moderate physical activities?
  • Over the past 12 months, in how many months, if any, did you do any kind of vigorous physical activity?
  • During those months, on average, about how many hours per week did you do vigorous physical activities?

Explanation:

Evidence suggests that an inactive lifestyle may be associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. In contrast, people who exercise regularly may have a decreased risk of developing colorectal cancer.

Questions for males:

  • In your entire lifetime, altogether, have you smoked 100 or more cigarettes?
  • How old were you when you started smoking cigarettes on a regular basis, that is, at least one cigarette a day for six months or longer?
  • Do you currently smoke cigarettes?
  • How old were you when you quit smoking cigarettes completely?
  • Thinking back over the years you have smoked regularly, about how many cigarettes have you usually smoked a day?

Explanation:

Studies suggest that a person who is a current or former smoker of cigarettes may be at increased risk of developing polyps and colorectal cancer.
In the case-control data that were used to build the absolute risk prediction model, smoking did not influence risk of colorectal cancer among women and was thus not included in the questionnaire for women. As more data become available that may change.

Questions for females:

  • Do you still have periods or menstrual cycles?
  • When did you have your last period or menstrual cycle?
  • During the past 2 years, have you used estrogen, progestin, or other female hormones?

Explanation:

Studies indicate that women who still have their menstrual periods, stopped having their menstrual periods in the past 2 years, or have used hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in the past 2 years may be at lower risk for developing colorectal cancer than other women.

Questions:

  • Think only about your biological mother and father, full brothers and sisters, and your biological sons or daughters. At any time in their lives, did any of these relatives ever have cancer of the colon or rectum (cancer of the lower intestine)?
  • How many of these relatives had cancer of the colon or rectum (cancer of the lower intestine)?

Explanation:

Close relatives (parents, brothers, sisters, or children) of a person with a history of colorectal cancer are somewhat more likely to develop this disease themselves, especially if the relative had the cancer at a young age. If many close relatives have a history of colorectal cancer, the risk can be even greater.

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About the Results

The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool estimates the risk of developing colorectal cancer for non-Hispanic white men and women ages 50 to 85 during the next 5-year and 10-year period up to age 90 (lifetime risk) based on the risk and protective factor information provided. Risk estimates increase with age because the risk of developing colorectal cancer increases with age.

Risk estimates calculated by the tool are estimates of absolute colorectal cancer risk. Absolute colorectal cancer risk is the probability of developing colorectal cancer in a defined age interval. One way to evaluate the accuracy of the risk estimate is to determine whether it correctly predicts average risk in non-Hispanic white men and women with the same risk factors and age. The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool predicts such average risk well.

At this time the risk calculations and results provided by this tool are only accurate for non-Hispanic white men and women ages 50 to 85. Researchers are in the process of updating the tool to produce accurate results for men and women of other races and ethnicities. Information to help you understand cancer risk, including colorectal cancer risk, is available at http://understandingrisk.cancer.gov.

While risk may be accurately estimated for non-Hispanic white men and women ages 50 to 85, these predictions do not allow one to say precisely which people will develop colorectal cancer. The tool is designed to help patients and their healthcare providers make informed choices about when and how screening should take place.

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About the Model

The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool is based on the first absolute risk model for colorectal cancer. The model was developed using data from two large U.S. population-based case-control studies of colon and rectal cancer, cancer incidence data from 13 NCI Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries, and from national mortality rates. The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool uses the respondent’s answers about risk and preventive factors to calculate that person’s absolute risk for developing colorectal cancer for a specific time period.

The model was tested in a large population and has been shown to be accurate in predicting absolute risk. Because the majority of participants in the case-control studies were non-Hispanic white males and females, relative risks for other racial or ethnic groups could not be estimated. Researchers are in the process of updating the tool by using SEER rates for minority populations to allow the tool to produce more accurate results for men and women in these populations.

The risk calculator will be updated periodically as new data or research become available. In addition, the tool may prove useful to researchers who are designing research intervention studies.

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References

  1. Freedman AN, Slattery ML, Ballard-Barbash R, Willis G, Cann B, Pee D, Gail MH, Pfeiffer RM. A colorectal cancer risk prediction tool for white men and women without known susceptibility. J Clin Oncol [In press].
  2. Park Y, Freedman AN, Gail MH, Pee D, Hollenbeck A, Schatzkin A, Pfeiffer RM. Validation of a colorectal cancer risk prediction model among whites 50 years old and over. J Clin Oncol [In press].

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National Cancer Institute U.S. National Institutes of Health www.cancer.gov U.S. Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health USA.gov