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TRACKING
THE DRAGON |
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SELECTED
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
ESTIMATES |
ON
CHINA,
1948-1976 |
This
collection of declassified National Intelligence Estimates
(NIEs) is the first such release of analytical products
exclusively on China. The inspiration for this undertaking
came from National Intelligence Council (NIC) Chairman
Ambassador Robert Hutchings and Herb Briick of CIA's
Information Management Services (IMS). Upon reviewing
outstanding requests for NIC documents received through
Freedom of Information and Executive Order channels,
both noted a critical mass of requests on China. The
71 documents in this collection—37 are available
on this site as selected
NIEs and all 71 are on a companion compact
disk in their entirety—also include some Estimates
which have been previously declassified and released
either to individual requesters or as part of periodic
voluntary releases undertaken by CIA's Historical Review
Group.
The
production of the collection was a joint effort by the
NIC and IMS. Beginning in early 2004, a small team was
formed on the staff of the DCI's Information Review
Office. The team included three editors, all with analytic
experience on China, who reviewed, selected, and declassified
the documents, assisted on a part-time basis by two
experts on the declassification process and a specialist
on the electronic management of documents.
During the period 1948-1976, some 240 Estimates dealing in some degree or another with China were produced. Owing to time and space constraints, the editors made a representative selection from this total. The largest category not chosen was Estimates on the Communist Bloc as a whole. Most of these Estimates were devoted primarily to the Soviet Union, and many of them had already been released.
The
editors' aim was to include Estimates that tracked the
general trends of China's internal politics, foreign
relations, national economy, and the growth of its military
establishment. They also sought to cover the drama of
the final stages of the Chinese civil war and the establishment
of Communist rule in 1949, the new regime's first Five
Year Plan of 1953-1957, Mao's principal ideological
campaigns—the Great Leap Forward and the Great
Proletarian Cultural Revolution—and the Sino-Soviet
split. Aside from those on the Communist Bloc, only
the most redundant or tactical Estimates or those on
issues peripheral to China itself were not included.
Purchase
a Hardcopy of "Tracking the Dragon: Selected
National Intelligence Estimates on China, 1948-1976"
(including the companion CD)
(GPO stock number 041-015-00239-2)
Visit
the Freedom
Of Information Act (FOIA) Web site - China Collection
for the full text of the 71 declassified China NIEs.
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