Trends and Patterns of HIV Infection in Selected Developing Countries

Introduction

A critical issue for policy makers and program planners in the development assistance community is current status and trends over time in the spread of HIV infection and the AIDS epidemic in developing countries. The identification of "hot spots" in the spread of infection is important in decision-making regarding the allocation of scarce program funds.

Until recently, data on levels of HIV infection for developing countries were not sufficiently voluminous to allow any but a one-time snapshot of the situation in a particular region or country. However, this picture is rapidly changing as repeated surveys and sentinel surveillance projects established over the past several years begin to use consistent methods of HIV serologic data collection over a period of years. These data are being compiled by the International Programs Center, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau and are the focus of this report.

The data presented in each country profile were drawn from the June 2000 release of the HIV/AIDS Surveillance Database, a compilation of HIV seroprevalence information contained in journals, articles, and public presentations. The database was developed and has been maintained at the U.S. Census Bureau since 1987 with funding support from the Africa Bureau and the Office of Health, HIV-AIDS Division, U.S. Agency for International Development. Currently, the database contains approximately 53,130 individual data records drawn from 5,065 publications and presentations. Although every attempt has been made to present the most reliable data, the quality of the original data varies considerably. Accordingly, the trends and patterns described should be considered tentative indications, rather than precise estimates of the problem, and caution should be used in drawing conclusions.

These country profiles examine the patterns and trends of the epidemic using the best of the imperfect data available. In order to minimize the biases and confusion in using current seroprevalence estimates, we have developed several criteria to select the most representative sample estimate: larger samples are generally favored over smaller samples, more recent estimates are selected over older estimates, and better documented data are usually selected over poorly documented data. Each profile highlights patterns of infection within population subgroups, patterns of infection by age, by sex, by race, and recent trends in infection levels.

Each country profile has a section called "Demographic Indicators." This section includes infant mortality rates, life expectancy, and cumulative AIDS cases and rates. Data were taken from the following sources:

U.S. Census Bureau, 2000, International Database, International Programs
     Center, Washington, D.C. (Unpublished tables, WP2000 update)
Population Reference Bureau, 2000, 2000 World Population Data Sheet.
     www.prb.org/pubs/wpds2000
U.S. Census Bureau, 2000, HIV/AIDS Surveillance Database 
UNAIDS/WHO, 2000, "Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic", June.
  
In addition, some country profiles may include a country map of HIV surveillance information. The data shown, either as a dot or shaded map, are taken primarily from the latest sentinel surveillance report for the population mapped. We welcome copies of articles or reference to information which may have been overlooked.