Hurricanes are products of an interaction between both the ocean and the atmosphere. Fueled by energy from the warm ocean waters, they can be steered by the easterly trade winds, as well as the temperate westerlies. Some hurricanes, especially strong ones, are even able to alter the environment that steers them. This is a major reason why it can sometimes be very difficult to predict where a particular hurricane will track.

     The National Hurricane Center (NHC), in Miami FL is responsible for tracking and forecasting movement for all tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific. The forecasters at the NHC use many different tools to help them make the best forecast possible. Some of those tools include: Satellite imagery, Ship/bouy observations, aircraft reconnaissance, and computer track models. Aircraft reconnaissance is typically performed by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserve, known as the "Hurricane Hunters". The mission of the Hurricane Hunters is to fly into tropical storms/hurricanes to gather real-time data about the pressure and wind fields of the storm. This crucial data can then be input into the computer track models, helping the hurricane forecasters at the NHC to make the best possible track prediction of the storm.

     The official Atlantic Basin (including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico) Hurricane Season runs from June 1 through November 30. These dates were chosen from climatological records, which show that the majority of tropical storms and hurricanes occur during this six month period, with a peak in activity from about mid August to mid October. However, tropical systems have been known to develop outside of this time frame, but it is relatively rare.

     Each year on average, the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will see about 10 named storms (including hurricanes and tropical storms), six of which will be hurricanes. Usually, most hurricanes remain out over the open ocean, causing problems mainly to shipping. However, about five hurricanes strike somewhere along the United States coastline every three years. Of these five, two will be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

     Some scientists are trying to predict how many tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes there will be each year. One of the most well known scientist that makes such predictions is Dr. William Gray, a professor at Colorado State University. Each year, Dr. Gray makes his first prediction in November for the following tropical season. Gray then makes several updates to this forecast, one in April, then in June, and a final update in August.

• Tropical Cyclone:   A generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale cyclone originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized convection and a definite cyclonic (counter-clockwise) surface wind circulation.
  
  
• Tropical Depression:   A tropical cyclone in which the maximum one-minute sustained surface wind is 38 mph (33 kts) or less.
  
  
• Tropical Storm:   A tropical cyclone in which the maximum one-minute sustained surface wind ranges from 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 kts) inclusive.
  
  
• Hurricane/Typhoon:   A tropical cyclone in which the maximum one-minute sustained surface wind is 74 mph (64 kts) or greater. "Typhoon" is the term used for hurricane-strength tropical cyclones in the western Pacific Ocean.
  
  
• Storm Surge:   An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a tropical cyclone or other intense storm. The height of the surge is computed by subtracting the "normal" astronomical tide from the observed level of the sea (storm tide).
  
  
• Storm Tide:   The actual level of the sea which results from the astronomical tide combined with the storm surge. (Storm Tide = Storm Surge + Astronomical Tide)

• Hurricane Warning:   Issued when the one-minute sustained surface winds of 74 mph (64 kts) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected along a specified coastal area within 24 hrs or less.
• Hurricane Watch:   Issued for specific coastal areas when a hurricane or incipient hurricane conditions pose a possible threat, generally within 36 hrs.
• Tropical Storm Warning:   Issued when the one-minute sustained surface winds within the range of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 kts) are expected along a specified coastal area within 24 hrs or less.
• Tropical Storm Watch:   Issued when tropical storm, or tropical storm conditions pose a threat to coastal areas, generally within 36 hrs.

• Hurricane Local Statement (HLS):  Issued to the public by local NWS offices to provide more specific information about how a tropical storm or hurricane will affect a particular NWS office's county warning area (CWA).  Examples of some information may be:  Onset time of tropical storm/hurricane force winds, amount of rainfall expected, storm surge values, evacuation orders/road closures/shelters, and any other information that would help to reduce the loss of life and property.  A new HLS is released to the public approximately one hour after each hurricane/tropical storm advisory is sent by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL.

     Hurricanes are rated using the Saffir Simpson Scale. This scale ranges from category 1 (weakest) to category 5 (strongest). This classification scheme can be used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane. Below are the wind speeds assigned to each category.

• When most people think about the destructive power of a hurricane, they most likely think about the strong winds. With wind speeds ranging from 74 mph in a minimal hurricane, to greater than 155 mph in a Catastrophic storm, it should be no surprise that most buildings, especially mobile homes, are no match to a hurricane's winds.
• Remember, mobile homes are extremely vulnerable to the high winds of a hurricane, and should be evacuated if expected to be within the strong wind region of the storm.

• The storm surge is abnormal rise in water due to the wind and pressure forces of a tropical system. In general, storm surges occur near and just to the right of where the center of the hurricane makes landfall. Potentially, the most disastrous surges result along coasts with low-lying terrain, which allows the water to penetrate well inland, or across inland bodies of water such as bays, lakes and rivers. Typically, the rising water associated with the surge affects an area of about 50 to 100 miles, and lasts for several hours.
• History has proven that the storm surge poses the greatest threat to life and property for coastal residents, with the most hurricane related deaths being caused by drowning.

• It is not uncommon for heavy rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches to occur with the passage of a hurricane, which can result in widespread destructive flooding. In fact, even relatively weak tropical storms can produce excessive amounts of rain, especially if they interact with frontal boundaries and/or mountainous terrain.
• In the past 30 years, inland flooding due to tropical cyclones has been responsible for more than half of the deaths. Deaths caused by inland fresh water flooding have now become greater than coastal flooding, most likely because residents that live along or near coastal locations are usually evacuated during a tropical cyclone event.

• This is probably the least well known hazards of tropical systems. Tornadoes typically form in the right-front quadrant of either a landfalling tropical storm, or hurricane. These tornadoes usually develop in the outer rainbands of the tropical system, and typically less weak than the classic mid-western type tornadoes.

     There are many preparations that can be done before, during and after a hurricane strikes. One of the most important, is to develop a plan of action in the event of a hurricane. A plan becomes especially essential if you live near the water, where it may become necessary for you to evacuate. Some questions to ask yourself might be:

• If you had to evacuate, do you know where you would go?
• If evacuating, do you know the route(s) you would take?
• How would you inform other family members both in and out of state where you are and how you're doing?
• What needs to be done to prepare your house/property for the storm?

     These are only a few of the concerns that must be considered when a tropical storm or hurricane threatens your area. For more detailed information about Preparing for a Hurricane, visit the following web sites:

          

     Whether you stay at home or evacuate, it is very important for you to stay informed of the latest information concerning the storm. One of the best ways to do that is to monitor the broadcasts of the NOAA Weather Radio. Broadcasts run 24 hrs a day, seven days a week, covering everything from current weather conditions and forecasts, to the latest watches, warnings and advisories. Having a NOAA Weather Radio also comes in handy for hearing about other threatening weather events such as severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. You can purchase a weather radio from most department stores or large electronic stores.